Wynston Sawyer
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 25 | AALAD | 201 | .277/.335/.429 | 4 | 1 | 61 | — | .222/.265/.323 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 124 | .257/.390/.347 | 2 | 0 | 76 | — | .229/.334/.313 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAAWSH | 171 | .260/.333/.409 | 2 | 0 | 55 | — | .203/.263/.316 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 18 | ROK | GCL Orioles | — | 27 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 259 | 346 | 605 | 115 | 217 | 7 | 0 | 272 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 337 | 289 | 64 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 322 | 291 | 613 | 69 | 258 | 15 | 12 | 284 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 366 | 315 | 75 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 42 | 69 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 238 | 339 | 384 | 723 | 146 | 278 | 19 | 11 | 326 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 316 | 272 | 68 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 336 | 346 | 681 | 96 | 271 | 13 | 10 | 304 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 290 | 254 | 58 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 53 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 228 | 312 | 323 | 635 | 94 | 276 | 18 | 10 | 287 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ | Frederick Keys | — | 379 | 299 | 84 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 63 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 281 | 425 | 462 | 887 | 181 | 312 | 15 | 17 | 395 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 201 | 184 | 51 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 277 | 335 | 429 | 764 | 152 | 338 | 21 | 6 | 339 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 83 | 66 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 318 | 451 | 394 | 845 | 76 | 400 | 19 | 13 | 389 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 41 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 143 | 268 | 257 | 525 | 114 | 138 | 12 | 12 | 251 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | — | 171 | 154 | 40 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 48 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 333 | 409 | 742 | 149 | 365 | 28 | 6 | 334 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 27 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 222 | 308 | 530 | 115 | 178 | 11 | 0 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 337 | 302 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 67 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 185 | 259 | 238 | 497 | 53 | 222 | 20 | 8 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 366 | 333 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 92 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 270 | 333 | 603 | 129 | 251 | 25 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 316 | 284 | 63 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 57 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 280 | 296 | 576 | 74 | 252 | 18 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 290 | 265 | 52 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 77 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 196 | 253 | 264 | 517 | 68 | 258 | 27 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 379 | 322 | 75 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 82 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 233 | 340 | 363 | 703 | 130 | 277 | 22 | 11 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 201 | 189 | 42 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 54 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 222 | 265 | 323 | 588 | 101 | 292 | 27 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 83 | 69 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 390 | 348 | 738 | 72 | 345 | 24 | 10 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 41 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 135 | 220 | 243 | 463 | 108 | 117 | 15 | 7 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 171 | 158 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 58 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 263 | 316 | 580 | 114 | 300 | 34 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 27 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 222 | 308 | 530 | 115 | 182 | 11 | 0 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Orioles | — | 27 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 259 | 346 | 605 | 115 | 217 | 7 | 0 | 272 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 337 | 302 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 67 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 185 | 259 | 238 | 497 | 53 | 227 | 20 | 8 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A RAW | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 337 | 289 | 64 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 52 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 221 | 322 | 291 | 613 | 69 | 258 | 15 | 12 | 284 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 366 | 333 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 92 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 270 | 333 | 603 | 129 | 254 | 25 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A RAW | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 366 | 315 | 75 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 42 | 69 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 238 | 339 | 384 | 723 | 146 | 278 | 19 | 11 | 326 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 316 | 284 | 63 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 57 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 222 | 280 | 296 | 576 | 74 | 259 | 18 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ RAW | Frederick Keys | — | 316 | 272 | 68 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 336 | 346 | 681 | 96 | 271 | 13 | 10 | 304 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 290 | 265 | 52 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 77 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 196 | 253 | 264 | 517 | 68 | 267 | 27 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ RAW | Frederick Keys | — | 290 | 254 | 58 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 53 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 228 | 312 | 323 | 635 | 94 | 276 | 18 | 10 | 287 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 379 | 322 | 75 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 82 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 233 | 340 | 363 | 703 | 130 | 284 | 22 | 11 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ RAW | Frederick Keys | — | 379 | 299 | 84 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 63 | 58 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 281 | 425 | 462 | 887 | 181 | 312 | 15 | 17 | 395 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 201 | 189 | 42 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 54 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 222 | 265 | 323 | 588 | 101 | 299 | 27 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA RAW | Tulsa Drillers | — | 201 | 184 | 51 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 42 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 277 | 335 | 429 | 764 | 152 | 338 | 21 | 6 | 339 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 124 | 106 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 333 | 311 | 645 | 85 | 278 | 21 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 124 | 101 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 257 | 390 | 347 | 737 | 89 | 304 | 17 | 13 | 343 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 171 | 158 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 58 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 263 | 316 | 580 | 114 | 306 | 34 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA RAW | Rochester Red Wings | — | 171 | 154 | 40 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 48 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 260 | 333 | 409 | 742 | 149 | 365 | 28 | 6 | 334 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Orioles | — | 27 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 222 | 308 | 530 | 115 | 178 | 11 | 0 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 337 | 304 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 67 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 184 | 259 | 237 | 496 | 53 | 222 | 20 | 8 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 366 | 333 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 92 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 204 | 270 | 333 | 603 | 129 | 251 | 25 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 316 | 290 | 63 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 57 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 280 | 290 | 570 | 72 | 252 | 18 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 290 | 268 | 52 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 77 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 194 | 253 | 261 | 514 | 67 | 258 | 27 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | Frederick Keys | — | 379 | 324 | 75 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 82 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 231 | 340 | 361 | 701 | 130 | 277 | 22 | 11 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 201 | 188 | 42 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 54 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 223 | 265 | 324 | 589 | 101 | 292 | 27 | 4 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 124 | 106 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 333 | 311 | 645 | 85 | 270 | 21 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Rochester Red Wings | — | 171 | 156 | 32 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 58 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 263 | 321 | 584 | 115 | 300 | 34 | 4 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2211 | 1985 | 417 | 90 | 6 | 29 | 154 | 516 | 43 | 16 | 7 | 210 | 281 | 305 | 587 | 95 | 265 | 23 | 7 | 261 | 63 | -99 | +0 | +0 | +39 | +48 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 584 | 123 | 26 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 152 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 211 | 282 | 308 | 591 | 98 | 265 | 23 | 7 | 261 | 63 | -29 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAARochester Red Wings · 171 PAwOBA .325 → .249 (−76)K% 28.1% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.07% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.43% | ÷1.095 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.51% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 3.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.81% | ÷0.982 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 17.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.04% | ÷1.063 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 11.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.89% | ÷0.958 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 1.64% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 96, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 100, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .325 → .249; ISO .149 → .110; BABIP .365 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAARochester Red Wings · 83 PAwOBA .385 → .325 (−59)K% 19.3% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.28% | ÷0.978 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.25% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 9.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.02% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 5.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.930 | ×0.955 | ×1.003 | 31.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.009 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×1.003 | 3.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.955 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.879 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 1.92% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 105, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 96, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .385 → .325; ISO .076 → .069; BABIP .400 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 41 PAwOBA .245 → .190 (−55)K% 12.2% → 15.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.20% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷1.078 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 7.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.44% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 2.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.072 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 8.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.979 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.978 | 3.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.975 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.67% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 114, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 92, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .245 → .190; ISO .114 → .097; BABIP .138 → .117. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AATulsa Drillers · 201 PAwOBA .332 → .258 (−73)K% 20.9% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.90% | ÷0.955 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.47% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.54% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×0.992 | ×0.988 | 20.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.992 | ×0.988 | 8.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.992 | ×0.988 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.82% | ÷1.295 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.72% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 159, 1B 101, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 91, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .332 → .258; ISO .152 → .107; BABIP .338 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Frederick Keys · 379 PAwOBA .389 → .312 (−77)K% 15.3% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.30% | ÷1.003 | ×1.420 | — | — | 21.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.62% | ÷0.972 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 10.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.17% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 2.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.99% | ÷1.035 | ×0.940 | ×1.037 | ×0.978 | 20.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.88% | ÷0.997 | ×0.830 | ×1.037 | ×0.978 | 6.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷0.975 | ×0.800 | ×1.037 | ×0.978 | 0.35% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.56% | ÷1.214 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 3.31% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 95, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .389 → .312; ISO .181 → .143; BABIP .312 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Frederick Keys · 290 PAwOBA .284 → .233 (−51)K% 18.3% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.28% | ÷0.985 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.66% | ÷0.999 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 6.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.90% | ÷1.001 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 19.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.97% | ÷1.021 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 5.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 0.88% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.184 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 0.75% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 100, 2B 104, 3B 87, K 97, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .284 → .233; ISO .094 → .075; BABIP .276 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Frederick Keys · 316 PAwOBA .304 → .262 (−42)K% 12.7% → 18.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.66% | ÷0.999 | ×1.420 | — | — | 17.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.44% | ÷0.985 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 6.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.63% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.55% | ÷1.014 | ×0.940 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 20.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.03% | ÷0.969 | ×0.830 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 5.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.800 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.076 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 1.44% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .304 → .262; ISO .096 → .083; BABIP .271 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 366 PAwOBA .319 → .263 (−56)K% 18.9% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.85% | ÷1.010 | ×1.340 | — | — | 25.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.20% | ÷1.116 | ×0.660 | — | — | 6.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.64% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 1.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.11% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.020 | — | 17.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.32% | ÷0.994 | ×0.820 | ×1.020 | — | 6.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷0.929 | ×0.940 | ×1.020 | — | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.25% | ÷0.872 | ×0.820 | — | — | 3.06% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 104, 2B 99, 3B 86, K 102, BB 123 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .319 → .263; ISO .146 → .133; BABIP .278 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).