Josh Rutledge
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 27 | MLBBOS | 56 | .265/.345/.388 | 0 | 2 | 95 | 0.2 | ||
| 2017 | 28 | AAAPawtucket Red… | 29 | .120/.241/.280 | 1 | 0 | 7 | — | .115/.207/.269 | |
| 2017 | 28 | MLBBOS | 118 | .224/.297/.262 | 0 | 1 | 61 | -0.3 | ||
| 2018 | 29 | AAASF | 54 | .077/.111/.077 | 0 | 0 | -66 | — | .057/.074/.057 | |
| 2019 | 30 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2020 | 31 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2021 | 32 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2022 | 33 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2023 | 34 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2024 | 35 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2025 | 36 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
| 2026 | 37 | No MLB games played | ||||||||
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 523 | 460 | 160 | 33 | 9 | 9 | 41 | 91 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 348 | 415 | 517 | 933 | 170 | 417 | 17 | 8 | 405 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 291 | 277 | 76 | 20 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 54 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 274 | 307 | 469 | 776 | 195 | 315 | 19 | 3 | 339 | 101 | +0 | +1 | -2 | +7 | +6 | 1.4 |
| 2012 | 23 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 379 | 356 | 109 | 27 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 69 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 306 | 341 | 508 | 850 | 202 | 345 | 18 | 4 | 369 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 314 | 285 | 67 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 62 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 235 | 294 | 337 | 631 | 102 | 276 | 20 | 7 | 282 | 68 | -12 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 162 | 143 | 53 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 371 | 444 | 587 | 1.032 | 217 | 415 | 13 | 7 | 453 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | — | 342 | 309 | 83 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 83 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 269 | 325 | 405 | 730 | 136 | 353 | 24 | 6 | 319 | 90 | -4 | -1 | -9 | +4 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 64 | 54 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 333 | 419 | 444 | 864 | 111 | 405 | 19 | 11 | 378 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 85 | 74 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 284 | 346 | 338 | 684 | 54 | 400 | 31 | 6 | 300 | 81 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 337 | 310 | 85 | 19 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 67 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 274 | 326 | 403 | 730 | 129 | 332 | 20 | 6 | 324 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 56 | 49 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 265 | 345 | 388 | 733 | 122 | 433 | 34 | 11 | 325 | 95 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.2 |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 20 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 316 | 350 | 421 | 771 | 105 | 400 | 20 | 5 | 344 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | — | 118 | 107 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 297 | 262 | 558 | 37 | 316 | 26 | 8 | 262 | 61 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 29 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 120 | 241 | 280 | 521 | 160 | 143 | 34 | 14 | 243 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 54 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 77 | 111 | 77 | 188 | 129 | 39 | 4 | 93 | -66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 1206 | 1101 | 284 | 51 | 14 | 20 | 71 | 275 | 16 | 24 | 3 | 258 | 312 | 384 | 696 | 126 | 325 | 23 | 6 | 308 | 94 | -8 | +4 | -12 | +16 | +26 | 2.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 523 | 474 | 140 | 27 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 125 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 295 | 349 | 441 | 790 | 146 | 367 | 24 | 5 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 291 | 277 | 71 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 54 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 256 | 290 | 422 | 712 | 166 | 315 | 19 | 3 | 317 | 101 | +0 | +1 | -2 | +7 | +6 | 1.4 |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 379 | 361 | 96 | 22 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 90 | 5 | 14 | 4 | 266 | 293 | 435 | 728 | 169 | 316 | 24 | 2 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 314 | 286 | 64 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 62 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 224 | 282 | 315 | 596 | 91 | 276 | 20 | 7 | 269 | 68 | -12 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2013 | 24 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 162 | 146 | 45 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 308 | 377 | 479 | 856 | 171 | 367 | 18 | 6 | 371 | 137 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | — | 342 | 309 | 78 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 83 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 252 | 310 | 372 | 683 | 120 | 353 | 24 | 6 | 301 | 90 | -4 | -1 | -9 | +4 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 64 | 57 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 281 | 339 | 368 | 707 | 88 | 365 | 27 | 6 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 85 | 75 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 280 | 333 | 333 | 667 | 53 | 400 | 31 | 5 | 288 | 81 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 337 | 316 | 71 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 91 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 225 | 266 | 323 | 589 | 98 | 298 | 27 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 56 | 49 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 245 | 327 | 347 | 674 | 102 | 433 | 34 | 11 | 308 | 95 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | 0.2 |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 20 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 316 | 350 | 421 | 771 | 105 | 380 | 25 | 5 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB MLE | Boston Red Sox | — | 118 | 107 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 224 | 297 | 262 | 558 | 37 | 316 | 26 | 8 | 259 | 61 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2017 | 28 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 29 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 | 207 | 269 | 476 | 154 | 126 | 41 | 10 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 54 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 57 | 74 | 57 | 131 | 118 | 46 | 2 | 70 | -66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 523 | 474 | 140 | 27 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 125 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 295 | 349 | 441 | 790 | 146 | 381 | 24 | 5 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ RAW | Modesto Nuts | — | 523 | 460 | 160 | 33 | 9 | 9 | 41 | 91 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 348 | 415 | 517 | 933 | 170 | 417 | 17 | 8 | 405 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 670 | 638 | 166 | 41 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 144 | 9 | 21 | 4 | 260 | 290 | 428 | 718 | 168 | 308 | 21 | 3 | 314 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 670 | 633 | 185 | 47 | 8 | 21 | 23 | 123 | 9 | 21 | 4 | 292 | 326 | 491 | 818 | 199 | 332 | 18 | 3 | 356 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 432 | 108 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 91 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 250 | 312 | 363 | 676 | 113 | 297 | 19 | 6 | 304 | 92 | -5 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +10 | 0.8 |
| 2013 | 24 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 476 | 428 | 120 | 23 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 83 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 280 | 346 | 421 | 767 | 140 | 325 | 17 | 7 | 340 | 92 | -5 | +2 | -1 | +2 | +10 | 0.8 |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 406 | 366 | 94 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 100 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 257 | 315 | 366 | 681 | 109 | 340 | 25 | 6 | 304 | 92 | -4 | -1 | -9 | +4 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 406 | 363 | 101 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 95 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 278 | 340 | 410 | 751 | 132 | 361 | 23 | 7 | 329 | 92 | -4 | -1 | -9 | +4 | +9 | -0.1 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 422 | 391 | 92 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 117 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 235 | 280 | 325 | 604 | 90 | 316 | 28 | 4 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 422 | 384 | 106 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 93 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 276 | 330 | 391 | 721 | 115 | 344 | 22 | 6 | 319 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 76 | 68 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 265 | 333 | 368 | 701 | 103 | 409 | 32 | 9 | 305 | 93 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 76 | 68 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 23 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 279 | 347 | 397 | 744 | 118 | 422 | 30 | 9 | 330 | 93 | -1 | +1 | +0 | +0 | +2 | 0.2 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 147 | 133 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 203 | 279 | 263 | 542 | 60 | 292 | 29 | 8 | 243 | 51 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +3 | -0.6 |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 147 | 132 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 41 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 286 | 265 | 551 | 61 | 289 | 28 | 9 | 258 | 51 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +3 | -0.6 |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 54 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 57 | 74 | 57 | 131 | 107 | 46 | 2 | 70 | -66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA RAW | Sacramento River Cats | — | 54 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 77 | 111 | 77 | 188 | 129 | 39 | 4 | 93 | -66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 523 | 479 | 140 | 27 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 125 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 292 | 349 | 436 | 785 | 144 | 367 | 24 | 5 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 670 | 638 | 166 | 41 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 144 | 9 | 21 | 4 | 260 | 290 | 428 | 718 | 168 | 315 | 21 | 3 | 314 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 476 | 434 | 108 | 20 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 91 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 249 | 312 | 362 | 674 | 113 | 307 | 19 | 6 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 406 | 372 | 94 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 100 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 253 | 315 | 360 | 675 | 108 | 355 | 25 | 6 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 422 | 395 | 92 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 117 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 233 | 280 | 322 | 601 | 89 | 319 | 28 | 4 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 76 | 69 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 261 | 333 | 362 | 696 | 101 | 419 | 32 | 9 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 147 | 132 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 43 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 279 | 265 | 544 | 61 | 278 | 29 | 8 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 29 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 54 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 57 | 74 | 57 | 131 | 118 | 46 | 2 | 70 | -66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1206 | 1101 | 284 | 51 | 14 | 20 | 71 | 275 | 16 | 24 | 3 | 258 | 312 | 384 | 696 | 126 | 325 | 23 | 6 | 308 | 88 | -8 | +4 | -12 | +16 | +26 | 2.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 153 | 27 | 8 | 11 | 38 | 148 | 9 | 13 | 2 | 258 | 312 | 386 | 699 | 128 | 324 | 23 | 6 | 308 | 88 | -4 | +2 | -7 | +8 | +14 | 1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2774 | 2555 | 648 | 132 | 21 | 47 | 136 | 669 | 46 | 61 | 17 | 254 | 303 | 377 | 680 | 123 | 324 | 24 | 5 | 298 | 88 | -8 | +4 | -12 | +16 | +26 | 2.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 152 | 31 | 5 | 11 | 32 | 157 | 11 | 14 | 4 | 254 | 304 | 377 | 682 | 124 | 324 | 24 | 5 | 298 | 88 | -4 | +2 | -7 | +8 | +14 | 1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAASacramento River Cats · 54 PAwOBA .091 → .070 (−21)K% 38.9% → 46.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.89% | ÷1.071 | ×1.290 | — | — | 46.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.70% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 2.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.90% | ÷0.963 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.982 | 11.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.910 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.998 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 93, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 114, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .091 → .070; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .129 → .118. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 29 PAwOBA .238 → .178 (−59)K% 34.5% → 42.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.48% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 42.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.79% | ÷0.937 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 10.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.987 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 6.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.954 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 5.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.106 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 5.02% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 100, K 97, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .238 → .178; ISO .160 → .116; BABIP .143 → .126. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 20 PAwOBA .335 → .296 (−39)K% 20.0% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 3.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷0.957 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 25.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 12.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 85, 3B 82, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .335 → .296; ISO .105 → .091; BABIP .400 → .380. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAASalt Lake Bees · 337 PAwOBA .318 → .260 (−57)K% 19.9% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.88% | ÷0.952 | ×1.290 | — | — | 26.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.64% | ÷1.025 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 3.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.48% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.87% | ÷1.012 | ×0.900 | ×1.020 | ×1.018 | 22.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.82% | ÷1.001 | ×0.810 | ×1.020 | ×1.018 | 6.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷0.987 | ×0.810 | ×1.020 | ×1.018 | 1.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.06% | ÷0.980 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 1.67% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 102, 2B 100, 3B 97, K 90, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .318 → .260; ISO .129 → .100; BABIP .332 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 64 PAwOBA .370 → .320 (−50)K% 18.8% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷0.934 | ×1.290 | — | — | 25.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.055 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 6.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.56% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 1.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.005 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.033 | 30.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.028 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.033 | 5.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.964 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 1.99% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 87, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .370 → .320; ISO .111 → .092; BABIP .405 → .365. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 162 PAwOBA .441 → .371 (−70)K% 13.0% → 17.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.96% | ÷0.941 | ×1.290 | — | — | 17.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.048 | 5.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.32% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.048 | 4.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.41% | ÷1.031 | ×0.900 | ×0.990 | ×1.048 | 23.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.93% | ÷0.967 | ×0.810 | ×0.990 | ×1.048 | 12.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷1.071 | ×0.810 | ×0.990 | ×1.048 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.28% | ÷1.022 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.048 | 2.62% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 106, 2B 93, 3B 114, K 88, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .441 → .371; ISO .217 → .174; BABIP .415 → .367. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AATulsa Drillers · 379 PAwOBA .361 → .311 (−50)K% 18.2% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.21% | ÷0.939 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.43% | ÷1.009 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 2.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.027 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 21.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.41% | ÷1.018 | ×0.840 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 8.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷0.953 | ×0.940 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 1.06% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.53% | ÷0.929 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.01% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 104, 3B 91, K 88, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .361 → .311; ISO .202 → .171; BABIP .345 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+Modesto Nuts · 523 PAwOBA .395 → .335 (−60)K% 17.4% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.40% | ÷0.975 | ×1.340 | — | — | 23.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.65% | ÷1.063 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.29% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.83% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.54% | ÷1.033 | ×0.910 | ×1.018 | ×1.012 | 26.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.94% | ÷1.020 | ×0.820 | ×1.018 | ×1.012 | 7.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.44% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×1.018 | ×1.012 | 1.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.44% | ÷0.800 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 2.84% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 60, 1B 107, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .395 → .335; ISO .170 → .151; BABIP .417 → .367. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).