Mark Payton

PosOF

B/TL/L

Born1991-12-07

Age (2027)35

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2024

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2021	29	AAANYM	325	.293/.363/.462	8	6	82	—	.243/.292/.369
2021	29	MLBCIN	24	.182/.250/.182	0	0	26	-0.6
2022	30	AAACWS	539	.293/.373/.539	25	15	80	—	.228/.286/.373
2022	30	MLBCWS	25	.143/.280/.143	0	0	35	-0.8
2024	32	AAACWS	479	.309/.387/.463	10	5	80	—	.249/.302/.362
2025	33	No MLB games played
2026	34	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -1.4

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2024 AAA

Whiff%88

K%80

Z-Con%80

Chase%69

BB%56

Max EV49

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	22	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	111	91	26	11	1	2	16	17	2	3	2	286	404	495	898	209	324	15	14	391	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	97	84	30	4	1	2	13	15	0	1	2	357	443	500	943	143	418	15	13	421	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	297	264	66	9	1	5	24	60	3	5	3	250	320	348	668	98	300	20	8	299	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	216	182	53	8	4	1	26	32	4	6	4	291	392	396	787	104	347	15	12	352	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	381	338	92	15	5	7	31	50	3	8	2	272	339	408	747	136	300	13	8	327	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	98	81	25	2	1	3	16	18	0	2	3	309	423	469	892	160	361	18	16	396	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	296	268	73	14	2	6	24	51	2	4	5	272	337	407	743	134	315	17	8	331	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	59	56	10	1	3	0	2	16	0	0	1	179	207	304	510	125	244	27	3	220	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	237	197	51	6	2	6	34	49	1	2	6	259	371	401	772	142	312	21	14	343	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	447	395	132	30	3	30	45	76	1	7	4	334	404	653	1.057	319	348	17	10	448	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	20	18	3	1	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	167	250	222	472	56	231	25	10	224	37	-1	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.1
2021	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	24	22	4	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	182	250	182	432		267	29	8	209	26	-2	+0	-1	-4	+1	-0.6
2021	29	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	325	290	85	19	3	8	30	50	2	6	3	293	363	462	825	169	328	15	9	363	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	25	21	3	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	143	280	143	423		176	16	16	220	35	-2	+0	-0	-6	+1	-0.8
2022	30	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	539	471	138	31	5	25	54	76	6	15	6	293	373	539	912	246	301	14	10	393	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	479	417	129	30	2	10	53	81	0	5	7	309	387	463	850	153	360	17	11	372	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	69	61	10	1	0	0	8	16	0	1	0	164	261	180	441	16	222	23	12	218	33	-5	+0	-1	-10	+1	-1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	22	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	—	111	95	24	10	1	2	12	25	2	3	2	253	349	442	791	189	305	23	11	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	97	89	28	3	1	2	8	21	0	1	2	315	371	438	809	124	386	22	8	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	297	274	63	8	1	3	14	77	3	5	3	230	275	299	574	69	296	26	5	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	—	216	189	46	7	3	1	19	45	4	6	4	243	325	328	654	85	303	21	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	381	351	91	14	5	6	18	61	3	8	2	259	301	379	680	120	284	16	5	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	—	98	86	22	2	1	3	11	26	0	2	3	256	340	407	747	151	317	27	11	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	296	277	66	12	2	4	15	62	2	4	5	238	282	339	622	101	285	21	5	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	59	57	8	1	2	0	1	19	0	0	1	140	155	228	383	88	221	32	2	182	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	237	209	47	5	2	5	22	59	1	2	6	225	302	340	641	115	278	25	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	447	408	103	24	2	20	32	99	1	7	4	252	308	468	777	216	277	22	7	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	20	18	3	1	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	167	250	222	472	56	231	25	10	223	37	-1	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.1
2021	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	24	22	4	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	182	250	182	432		267	29	8	207	26	-2	+0	-1	-4	+1	-0.6
2021	29	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	325	301	73	17	3	5	19	62	2	6	3	243	292	369	661	126	282	19	6	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	25	21	3	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	143	280	143	423		176	16	16	220	35	-2	+0	-0	-6	+1	-0.8
2022	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	539	491	112	25	5	12	34	94	6	15	6	228	286	373	659	145	250	17	6	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	479	437	109	24	2	7	33	98	0	5	7	249	302	362	664	112	294	20	7	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	208	184	51	13	2	4	20	46	2	4	4	277	354	435	789	158	346	22	10	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	208	175	56	15	2	4	29	32	2	4	4	320	422	497	919	177	369	15	14	405	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	513	463	109	15	4	4	33	122	7	11	7	235	296	311	607	76	307	24	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	513	446	119	17	5	6	50	92	7	11	7	267	350	368	718	101	320	18	10	321	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	479	437	111	16	5	8	29	87	3	10	5	254	305	368	673	114	299	18	6	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	479	419	117	17	6	10	47	68	3	10	5	279	356	420	776	141	311	14	10	341	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	355	334	74	13	4	4	16	81	2	4	6	222	261	320	582	99	278	23	5	256	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	355	324	83	15	5	6	26	67	2	4	6	256	315	389	704	133	303	19	7	313	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	237	209	47	5	2	5	22	59	1	2	6	225	302	340	641	115	286	25	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	237	197	51	6	2	6	34	49	1	2	6	259	371	401	772	142	312	21	14	343	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	447	408	103	24	2	20	32	99	1	7	4	252	308	468	777	216	283	22	7	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA RAW	Las Vegas Aviators	—	447	395	132	30	3	30	45	76	1	7	4	334	404	653	1.057	319	348	17	10	448	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	20	18	3	1	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	167	250	222	472	56	231	25	10	223	37	-1	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	20	18	3	1	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	167	250	222	472	56	231	25	10	224	37	-1	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.1
2021	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	349	323	77	17	3	5	21	69	2	6	3	238	289	356	645	118	286	20	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	349	312	89	19	3	8	32	57	2	6	3	285	355	442	798	157	324	16	9	353	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	564	512	115	25	5	12	38	98	6	15	6	225	286	363	649	139	252	17	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	564	492	141	31	5	25	58	80	6	15	6	287	369	522	891	236	295	14	10	385	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	479	437	109	24	2	7	33	98	0	5	7	249	302	362	664	112	303	20	7	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	—	479	417	129	30	2	10	53	81	0	5	7	309	387	463	850	153	360	17	11	372	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	208	184	51	13	2	4	20	46	2	4	4	277	354	435	789	158	343	22	10	343	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	513	468	109	15	4	4	33	122	7	11	7	233	296	308	604	75	299	24	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	479	444	111	16	5	8	29	87	3	10	5	250	305	363	668	113	291	18	6	293	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	355	334	74	13	4	4	16	81	2	4	6	222	261	320	582	99	274	23	5	256	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	237	212	47	5	2	5	22	59	1	2	6	222	302	335	637	113	278	25	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	447	411	103	24	2	20	32	99	1	7	4	251	308	465	773	214	277	22	7	331	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	20	18	3	1	0	0	2	5	0	1	0	167	250	222	472	56	231	25	10	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	349	323	77	17	3	5	21	69	2	6	3	238	289	356	645	118	281	20	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	564	515	115	25	5	12	38	98	6	15	6	223	286	361	647	138	247	17	7	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	479	443	109	24	2	7	33	98	0	5	7	246	302	357	659	111	294	20	7	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	32	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	479	443	109	24	2	7	33	98	0	5	7	246	302	357	659	111	294	20	7	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	69	61	10	1	0	0	8	16	0	1	0	164	261	180	441	16	222	23	12	218	82	-5	+0	-1	-10	+1	-1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	94	9	0	0	75	151	0	9	0	163	260	179	439	16	222	23	12	218	82	-52	+2	-11	-94	+14	-14.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3651	3325	799	153	29	69	246	764	24	65	48	240	297	366	663	126	289	21	7	290	82	-5	+0	-1	-10	+1	-1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	142	27	5	12	44	136	4	12	9	240	297	363	660	123	289	21	7	290	82	-52	+2	-11	-94	+14	-14.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2024 AAACharlotte Knights · 479 PAwOBA .366 → .287 (−79)K% 16.9% → 20.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.91%	÷0.991	×1.200	—	—	20.48%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.86%	÷1.025	×0.690	—	×0.942	6.88%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.942	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.89%	÷1.033	×0.930	×0.991	×0.942	21.76%
Doubles /BIP	8.93%	÷0.994	×0.830	×0.991	×0.942	6.96%
Triples /BIP	0.60%	÷1.049	×0.970	×0.991	×0.942	0.51%
Home runs /BIP	2.98%	÷1.016	×0.700	—	×0.942	1.93%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 110, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.

Result: wOBA .366 → .287; ISO .153 → .115; BABIP .360 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAACharlotte Knights · 539 PAwOBA .386 → .287 (−99)K% 14.1% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.10%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	17.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.83%	÷1.028	×0.690	—	×0.962	6.35%
HBP% /PA	1.11%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.01%
Singles /BIP	19.49%	÷1.003	×0.930	×0.993	×0.962	17.28%
Doubles /BIP	7.85%	÷1.028	×0.830	×0.993	×0.962	6.06%
Triples /BIP	1.27%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.993	×0.962	1.30%
Home runs /BIP	6.33%	÷1.421	×0.700	—	×0.962	3.00%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 95, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.

Result: wOBA .386 → .287; ISO .246 → .152; BABIP .301 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASyracuse Mets · 325 PAwOBA .355 → .289 (−66)K% 15.4% → 19.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.38%	÷0.966	×1.200	—	—	19.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.62%	÷1.006	×0.690	—	×0.972	5.74%
HBP% /PA	0.62%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.56%
Singles /BIP	22.92%	÷1.032	×0.930	×0.985	×0.972	19.77%
Doubles /BIP	7.92%	÷0.897	×0.830	×0.985	×0.972	7.01%
Triples /BIP	1.25%	÷0.986	×0.920	×0.985	×0.972	1.12%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷1.039	×0.700	—	×0.972	2.18%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 106, 2B 79, 3B 97, K 93, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .355 → .289; ISO .169 → .132; BABIP .328 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 447 PAwOBA .439 → .331 (−108)K% 17.0% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.00%	÷0.990	×1.290	—	—	22.14%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.07%	÷0.985	×0.710	—	×0.992	7.20%
HBP% /PA	0.22%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.22%
Singles /BIP	21.63%	÷1.018	×0.900	×0.950	×0.992	18.02%
Doubles /BIP	9.40%	÷0.951	×0.810	×0.950	×0.992	7.55%
Triples /BIP	0.94%	÷1.102	×0.810	×0.950	×0.992	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	9.40%	÷1.119	×0.780	—	×0.992	6.50%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 120, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .439 → .331; ISO .319 → .226; BABIP .348 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 237 PAwOBA .336 → .284 (−52)K% 20.7% → 24.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.68%	÷1.002	×1.200	—	—	24.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.92%	÷1.034	×0.690	—	×1.003	9.32%
HBP% /PA	0.42%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.40%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.032	×0.930	×1.003	×1.003	22.68%
Doubles /BIP	4.05%	÷1.004	×0.830	×1.003	×1.003	3.37%
Triples /BIP	1.35%	÷1.130	×0.970	×1.003	×1.003	1.17%
Home runs /BIP	4.05%	÷1.046	×0.840	—	×1.003	3.27%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 126, K 100, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .336 → .284; ISO .142 → .122; BABIP .312 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 296 PAwOBA .324 → .271 (−52)K% 17.2% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.23%	÷0.995	×1.200	—	—	20.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.77%	÷1.105	×0.690	—	×1.018	4.94%
HBP% /PA	0.68%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.65%
Singles /BIP	23.50%	÷0.980	×0.930	×0.966	×1.018	21.94%
Doubles /BIP	6.45%	÷0.951	×0.830	×0.966	×1.018	5.54%
Triples /BIP	0.92%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.966	×1.018	0.76%
Home runs /BIP	2.76%	÷1.247	×0.840	—	×1.018	1.90%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 96, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 99, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .324 → .271; ISO .134 → .104; BABIP .315 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AATrenton Thunder · 59 PAwOBA .217 → .182 (−36)K% 27.1% → 32.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.12%	÷1.007	×1.220	—	—	32.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.39%	÷0.979	×0.700	—	×0.988	2.40%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	15.00%	÷1.020	×0.970	×1.009	×0.988	14.22%
Doubles /BIP	2.50%	÷0.936	×0.860	×1.009	×0.988	2.29%
Triples /BIP	7.50%	÷1.150	×0.950	×1.009	×0.988	6.18%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.960	×0.780	—	×0.988	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .217 → .182; ISO .125 → .100; BABIP .244 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AATrenton Thunder · 381 PAwOBA .316 → .286 (−30)K% 13.1% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.12%	÷0.997	×1.220	—	—	16.06%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.09%	÷1.061	×0.700	—	×0.998	4.67%
HBP% /PA	0.79%	—	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.67%
Singles /BIP	22.57%	÷0.981	×0.970	×0.984	×0.998	21.90%
Doubles /BIP	5.21%	÷0.962	×0.860	×0.984	×0.998	4.57%
Triples /BIP	1.74%	÷1.039	×0.950	×0.984	×0.998	1.56%
Home runs /BIP	2.43%	÷1.015	×0.780	—	×0.998	1.86%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 96, 2B 92, 3B 108, K 99, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .316 → .286; ISO .136 → .118; BABIP .300 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).