Chace Numata
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | AAPHI | 340 | .249/.320/.351 | 4 | 0 | 63 | — | .234/.282/.320 |
| 2018 | 25 | AA/A+/ROK3 orgs | 191 | .200/.259/.303 | 1 | 1 | 27 | — | .173/.217/.265 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA/AADET | 280 | .244/.302/.354 | 4 | 0 | 44 | — | .206/.244/.279 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 17 | ROK | GCL Phillies | — | 53 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 222 | 340 | 244 | 584 | 22 | 303 | 23 | 15 | 283 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 154 | 421 | 154 | 0 | 7 | 216 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 20 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 351 | 308 | 71 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 45 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 311 | 305 | 616 | 75 | 258 | 13 | 9 | 280 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | ROK | GCL Phillies | — | 27 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 259 | 269 | 528 | 38 | 273 | 15 | 4 | 241 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | INTL | Melbourne Aces | — | 185 | 174 | 45 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 259 | 295 | 322 | 617 | 63 | 284 | 10 | 5 | 277 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | — | 290 | 262 | 69 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 263 | 325 | 324 | 650 | 61 | 294 | 11 | 7 | 294 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 16 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 357 | 438 | 429 | 866 | 71 | 385 | 6 | 12 | 394 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | — | 369 | 328 | 101 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 308 | 380 | 393 | 773 | 85 | 344 | 11 | 10 | 348 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 340 | 305 | 76 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 249 | 320 | 351 | 671 | 102 | 270 | 11 | 9 | 303 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Trenton Thunder | — | 135 | 128 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 180 | 222 | 242 | 464 | 62 | 223 | 19 | 5 | 212 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A+ | Tampa Tarpons | — | 32 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 375 | 536 | 911 | 250 | 304 | 12 | 9 | 397 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | ROK | GCL Yankees East | — | 24 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 318 | 368 | 687 | 158 | 200 | 4 | 8 | 287 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 22 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300 | 364 | 350 | 714 | 50 | 300 | 0 | 9 | 327 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 258 | 234 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 48 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 296 | 355 | 651 | 115 | 278 | 19 | 6 | 288 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 53 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 167 | 245 | 188 | 433 | 21 | 251 | 32 | 9 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 154 | 421 | 127 | 0 | 7 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 351 | 319 | 70 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 60 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 219 | 276 | 288 | 565 | 69 | 249 | 17 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 27 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 | 222 | 231 | 453 | 38 | 214 | 22 | 4 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 290 | 267 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 50 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 243 | 294 | 303 | 597 | 60 | 284 | 17 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 16 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 375 | 400 | 775 | 67 | 340 | 6 | 6 | 325 | 106 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 369 | 339 | 94 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 59 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 277 | 331 | 360 | 690 | 83 | 322 | 16 | 7 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 340 | 316 | 74 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 234 | 282 | 320 | 602 | 85 | 257 | 13 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Trenton Thunder | — | 135 | 130 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 162 | 193 | 215 | 408 | 54 | 210 | 22 | 4 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | A+ MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 32 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 241 | 312 | 483 | 795 | 241 | 276 | 19 | 6 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | ROK MLE | GCL Yankees East | — | 24 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 227 | 250 | 477 | 100 | 142 | 4 | 4 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 22 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 318 | 333 | 652 | 48 | 272 | 0 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 258 | 241 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 59 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 199 | 237 | 274 | 511 | 75 | 242 | 23 | 3 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 53 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 167 | 245 | 188 | 433 | 21 | 258 | 32 | 9 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 17 | ROK RAW | GCL Phillies | — | 53 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 222 | 340 | 244 | 584 | 22 | 303 | 23 | 15 | 283 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 154 | 421 | 154 | 0 | 7 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Phillies | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 154 | 421 | 154 | 0 | 7 | 216 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 351 | 319 | 70 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 60 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 219 | 276 | 288 | 565 | 69 | 258 | 17 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A RAW | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 351 | 308 | 71 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 45 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 311 | 305 | 616 | 75 | 258 | 13 | 9 | 280 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 212 | 205 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 166 | 186 | 190 | 376 | 24 | 211 | 21 | 2 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 212 | 200 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 255 | 290 | 315 | 605 | 60 | 282 | 11 | 5 | 272 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 281 | 70 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 51 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 249 | 301 | 310 | 611 | 60 | 297 | 17 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 306 | 276 | 74 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 268 | 331 | 330 | 661 | 62 | 299 | 11 | 7 | 300 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 369 | 339 | 94 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 59 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 277 | 331 | 360 | 690 | 83 | 327 | 16 | 7 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ RAW | Clearwater Threshers | — | 369 | 328 | 101 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 37 | 41 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 308 | 380 | 393 | 773 | 85 | 344 | 11 | 10 | 348 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 340 | 316 | 74 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 234 | 282 | 320 | 602 | 85 | 262 | 13 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 340 | 305 | 76 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 37 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 249 | 320 | 351 | 671 | 102 | 270 | 11 | 9 | 303 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 191 | 179 | 32 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 179 | 222 | 268 | 490 | 89 | 217 | 19 | 4 | 209 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 191 | 175 | 35 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 259 | 303 | 562 | 103 | 233 | 16 | 6 | 253 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 280 | 262 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 59 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 206 | 244 | 279 | 522 | 73 | 252 | 21 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 280 | 254 | 62 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 48 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 244 | 302 | 354 | 656 | 110 | 280 | 17 | 6 | 291 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 53 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 167 | 245 | 188 | 433 | 21 | 251 | 32 | 9 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 15 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 154 | 267 | 154 | 421 | 127 | 0 | 7 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 351 | 323 | 70 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 60 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 217 | 276 | 285 | 561 | 68 | 249 | 17 | 5 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 212 | 205 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 166 | 186 | 190 | 376 | 24 | 214 | 21 | 2 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 306 | 282 | 70 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 51 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 248 | 301 | 309 | 610 | 60 | 287 | 17 | 6 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 369 | 339 | 94 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 59 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 277 | 331 | 360 | 690 | 83 | 322 | 16 | 7 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 340 | 316 | 74 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 234 | 282 | 320 | 602 | 85 | 257 | 13 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 191 | 179 | 32 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 179 | 222 | 268 | 490 | 89 | 213 | 19 | 4 | 209 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 280 | 265 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 59 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 244 | 275 | 519 | 72 | 244 | 21 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2117 | 1962 | 438 | 83 | 8 | 12 | 110 | 373 | 19 | 16 | 5 | 223 | 271 | 292 | 563 | 69 | 267 | 18 | 5 | 247 | 54 | -117 | +1 | +0 | +38 | +46 | -3.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 602 | 134 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 115 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 223 | 271 | 291 | 562 | 68 | 266 | 18 | 5 | 247 | 54 | -36 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAErie SeaWolves · 258 PAwOBA .283 → .229 (−54)K% 18.6% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.60% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.43% | ÷1.050 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 3.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.16% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.97% | ÷0.978 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 19.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.91% | ÷1.077 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 4.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷1.127 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.15% | ÷1.294 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.27% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 159, 1B 96, 2B 115, 3B 125, K 99, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .283 → .229; ISO .115 → .079; BABIP .278 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 22 PAwOBA .319 → .282 (−37)K% 0.0% → 0.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.056 | ×1.200 | — | — | 0.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.004 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.013 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 23.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 4.18% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.096 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.888 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 119, K 111, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .319 → .282; ISO .050 → .043; BABIP .300 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AATrenton Thunder · 135 PAwOBA .207 → .179 (−28)K% 18.5% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.52% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.19% | ÷0.972 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 3.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.53% | ÷0.954 | ×0.970 | ×0.985 | ×0.988 | 15.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.83% | ÷1.042 | ×0.860 | ×0.985 | ×0.988 | 4.68% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.97% | ÷0.944 | ×0.950 | ×0.985 | ×0.988 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.034 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 108, 3B 89, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .207 → .179; ISO .062 → .051; BABIP .223 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Tampa Tarpons · 32 PAwOBA .387 → .321 (−66)K% 12.5% → 17.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.004 | ×1.420 | — | — | 17.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.38% | ÷1.015 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.968 | 6.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.12% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.968 | 2.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 14.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.891 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.968 | 8.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.983 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.968 | 3.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.205 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 2.94% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 101, 2B 78, 3B 97, K 101, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .387 → .321; ISO .250 → .201; BABIP .304 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKGCL Yankees East · 24 PAwOBA .305 → .227 (−79)K% 4.2% → 6.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.17% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 6.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 4.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.17% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 2.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 4.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 11.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .305 → .227; ISO .158 → .123; BABIP .200 → .142. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAReading Fightin Phils · 340 PAwOBA .296 → .262 (−33)K% 10.9% → 13.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.88% | ÷1.012 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.24% | ÷1.045 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.59% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.50% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.15% | ÷1.013 | ×0.970 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 19.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.34% | ÷0.986 | ×0.860 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 5.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷1.063 | ×0.950 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.49% | ÷1.220 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.95% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 103, 2B 97, 3B 113, K 102, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .296 → .262; ISO .102 → .083; BABIP .270 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Clearwater Threshers · 369 PAwOBA .341 → .303 (−38)K% 11.1% → 16.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.986 | ×1.420 | — | — | 16.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.76% | ÷1.011 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 7.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.53% | ÷0.997 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×0.988 | 25.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.27% | ÷0.947 | ×0.960 | ×1.011 | ×0.988 | 6.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.011 | ×0.988 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.70% | ÷0.964 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.63% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .341 → .303; ISO .085 → .082; BABIP .344 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Clearwater Threshers · 290 PAwOBA .289 → .263 (−25)K% 11.4% → 17.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.38% | ÷0.940 | ×1.420 | — | — | 17.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.55% | ÷0.918 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 5.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.38% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 1.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.45% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 23.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.80% | ÷0.950 | ×0.960 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 4.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.44% | ÷0.984 | ×0.810 | ×1.009 | ×0.998 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.44% | ÷1.117 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 0.34% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 93, 2B 90, 3B 97, K 88, BB 84 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .289 → .263; ISO .061 → .056; BABIP .294 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).