Drew Heid
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 411 | .305/.396/.452 | 6 | 7 | 96 | — | .275/.338/.396 |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 395 | .250/.320/.330 | 2 | 8 | 58 | — | .234/.281/.302 |
| 2015 | 27 | AAPHI | 54 | .128/.226/.213 | 0 | 1 | -2 | — | .122/.189/.204 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | ROK | Orem Owlz | — | 333 | 287 | 104 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 40 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 362 | 439 | 505 | 944 | 143 | 394 | 12 | 11 | 412 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 141 | 126 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 270 | 343 | 310 | 652 | 40 | 321 | 15 | 6 | 302 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 91 | 76 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 224 | 344 | 303 | 647 | 79 | 258 | 14 | 15 | 302 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 44 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 190 | 227 | 190 | 418 | 216 | 11 | 2 | 197 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 335 | 284 | 81 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 43 | 46 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 285 | 385 | 394 | 779 | 109 | 325 | 14 | 13 | 351 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 166 | 139 | 46 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 21 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 331 | 419 | 532 | 951 | 201 | 413 | 21 | 13 | 402 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 245 | 208 | 60 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 49 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 288 | 381 | 399 | 780 | 111 | 365 | 20 | 13 | 346 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 89 | 80 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 294 | 312 | 607 | 62 | 312 | 20 | 6 | 263 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 306 | 272 | 68 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 29 | 47 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 250 | 327 | 335 | 661 | 85 | 295 | 15 | 9 | 300 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 54 | 47 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 128 | 226 | 213 | 439 | 85 | 154 | 17 | 9 | 206 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | ROK MLE | Orem Owlz | — | 333 | 301 | 82 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 58 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 272 | 328 | 375 | 704 | 103 | 303 | 17 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 141 | 129 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 233 | 293 | 264 | 556 | 31 | 292 | 21 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 91 | 79 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 203 | 300 | 278 | 578 | 76 | 238 | 19 | 12 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 44 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 167 | 205 | 167 | 371 | 196 | 14 | 2 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 335 | 298 | 72 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 64 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 242 | 315 | 349 | 664 | 107 | 280 | 19 | 9 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 166 | 145 | 41 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 47 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 283 | 350 | 434 | 784 | 152 | 364 | 28 | 9 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 245 | 219 | 59 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 60 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 269 | 331 | 370 | 700 | 100 | 341 | 24 | 8 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 89 | 82 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 232 | 259 | 293 | 552 | 61 | 286 | 27 | 3 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 306 | 282 | 66 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 52 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 234 | 287 | 305 | 592 | 71 | 277 | 17 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 54 | 49 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 122 | 189 | 204 | 393 | 82 | 132 | 19 | 6 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK MLE | Orem Owlz | — | 333 | 301 | 82 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 58 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 272 | 328 | 375 | 704 | 103 | 314 | 17 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK RAW | Orem Owlz | — | 333 | 287 | 104 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 40 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 362 | 439 | 505 | 944 | 143 | 394 | 12 | 11 | 412 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 141 | 129 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 233 | 293 | 264 | 556 | 31 | 300 | 21 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 141 | 126 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 270 | 343 | 310 | 652 | 40 | 321 | 15 | 6 | 302 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 470 | 419 | 94 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 41 | 86 | 4 | 18 | 9 | 224 | 300 | 305 | 605 | 81 | 268 | 18 | 9 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 470 | 402 | 106 | 19 | 0 | 6 | 58 | 64 | 4 | 18 | 9 | 264 | 362 | 356 | 718 | 92 | 300 | 14 | 12 | 327 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 411 | 364 | 98 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 107 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 269 | 333 | 387 | 721 | 118 | 365 | 26 | 9 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 411 | 347 | 106 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 52 | 84 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 305 | 396 | 452 | 848 | 147 | 385 | 20 | 13 | 369 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 395 | 364 | 85 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 75 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 234 | 281 | 302 | 583 | 69 | 286 | 19 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 395 | 352 | 88 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 34 | 65 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 250 | 320 | 330 | 649 | 80 | 299 | 16 | 9 | 292 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 54 | 49 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 122 | 189 | 204 | 393 | 82 | 150 | 19 | 6 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA RAW | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 54 | 47 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 128 | 226 | 213 | 439 | 85 | 154 | 17 | 9 | 206 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK MLE | Orem Owlz | — | 333 | 305 | 82 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 58 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 269 | 328 | 370 | 699 | 102 | 303 | 17 | 6 | 301 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 141 | 129 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 233 | 293 | 264 | 556 | 31 | 292 | 21 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 470 | 422 | 94 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 41 | 86 | 4 | 18 | 9 | 223 | 300 | 303 | 603 | 81 | 264 | 18 | 9 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 411 | 373 | 98 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 107 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 263 | 333 | 378 | 711 | 115 | 350 | 26 | 9 | 311 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 395 | 368 | 85 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 75 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 231 | 281 | 299 | 580 | 68 | 279 | 19 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 54 | 50 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 120 | 189 | 200 | 389 | 80 | 132 | 19 | 6 | 165 | -2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1804 | 1626 | 395 | 55 | 13 | 20 | 128 | 366 | 16 | 50 | 28 | 243 | 305 | 330 | 634 | 87 | 300 | 20 | 7 | 277 | 73 | -57 | -1 | +0 | -19 | +39 | -3.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 143 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 46 | 132 | 6 | 18 | 10 | 244 | 306 | 331 | 637 | 87 | 302 | 20 | 7 | 277 | 73 | -21 | -0 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAReading Fightin Phils · 54 PAwOBA .205 → .165 (−40)K% 16.7% → 19.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.060 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.26% | ÷1.029 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 6.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×0.955 | ×0.968 | 7.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷0.949 | ×0.860 | ×0.955 | ×0.968 | 4.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.955 | ×0.968 | 2.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.021 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 112, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .205 → .165; ISO .085 → .071; BABIP .154 → .132. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAArkansas Travelers · 306 PAwOBA .292 → .262 (−30)K% 15.4% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.36% | ÷1.106 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.15% | ÷1.012 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 6.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.00% | ÷0.961 | ×0.920 | ×1.029 | ×0.978 | 23.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.11% | ÷0.972 | ×0.840 | ×1.029 | ×0.978 | 2.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.029 | ×0.978 | 1.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.89% | ÷0.986 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.71% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 92, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 121, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .292 → .262; ISO .085 → .073; BABIP .295 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAASalt Lake Bees · 89 PAwOBA .262 → .230 (−32)K% 20.2% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.22% | ÷0.986 | ×1.290 | — | — | 26.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.62% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 3.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.42% | ÷1.013 | ×0.900 | ×1.037 | ×1.003 | 25.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.61% | ÷1.005 | ×0.810 | ×1.037 | ×1.003 | 1.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.23% | ÷0.958 | ×0.810 | ×1.037 | ×1.003 | 2.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.139 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 103, 2B 101, 3B 92, K 97, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .262 → .230; ISO .062 → .054; BABIP .312 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAArkansas Travelers · 245 PAwOBA .336 → .296 (−40)K% 20.0% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.990 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.24% | ÷1.063 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 7.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.67% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | ×1.029 | ×0.988 | 26.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.55% | ÷0.982 | ×0.840 | ×1.029 | ×0.988 | 6.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷0.943 | ×0.940 | ×1.029 | ×0.988 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.89% | ÷0.951 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.57% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 96, 3B 89, K 98, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .336 → .296; ISO .111 → .100; BABIP .365 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAASalt Lake Bees · 166 PAwOBA .399 → .332 (−67)K% 21.1% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.08% | ÷0.964 | ×1.290 | — | — | 28.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.65% | ÷1.016 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 9.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.88% | ÷0.997 | ×0.900 | ×1.006 | ×1.018 | 25.78% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.65% | ÷0.977 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×1.018 | 7.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.81% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×1.018 | 3.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.88% | ÷0.973 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 2.35% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 93, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .399 → .332; ISO .201 → .160; BABIP .413 → .364. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Inland Empire 66ers · 335 PAwOBA .343 → .287 (−56)K% 13.7% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.73% | ÷0.969 | ×1.340 | — | — | 18.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.84% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 8.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.21% | ÷1.021 | ×0.910 | ×0.991 | ×0.978 | 21.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.72% | ÷0.931 | ×0.820 | ×0.991 | ×0.978 | 5.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.018 | ×0.760 | ×0.991 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.10% | ÷0.823 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 2.30% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 104, 2B 86, 3B 104, K 94, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .343 → .287; ISO .109 → .107; BABIP .325 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAASalt Lake Bees · 91 PAwOBA .295 → .255 (−39)K% 14.3% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.005 | ×1.290 | — | — | 18.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.914 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 12.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.63% | ÷1.029 | ×0.900 | ×1.041 | ×1.033 | 19.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.022 | ×0.810 | ×1.041 | ×1.033 | 4.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.041 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.59% | ÷1.053 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 1.21% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 106, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 101, BB 83 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .295 → .255; ISO .079 → .064; BABIP .258 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAArkansas Travelers · 44 PAwOBA .192 → .167 (−25)K% 11.4% → 13.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.36% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.27% | ÷1.076 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 1.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.27% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.62% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 19.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.046 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.819 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 102, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 101, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .192 → .167; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .216 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).