Chi Chi González prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Chi Chi González P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 75 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.88

FIP4.82

K%17.9%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%9.5%

ROS IP75

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 75 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD3535

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2592.7

Whiff%

p1014.4%

p1015.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.378

SL-0.6

CT-1.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	26	155	657	86	62	9	87%	5.2	12.1%	9.7%	2.4%	1.3%	3.71	4.02	+1.6
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	26	155	657	86	62	9	87%	5.2	13.1%	9.4%	3.7%	1.4%	3.71	3.94	+1.8
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	148	653	98	53	9	96%	5.3	13.3%	8.5%	4.9%	1.8%	4.98	4.01	+1.6
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	148	653	98	53	9	96%	5.3	15.0%	8.1%	6.9%	1.4%	4.98	3.64	+2.3
2018	26	ROK MLE	AZL Rangers	2	1	5	17	4	0	0	50%	2.5	23.5%	0.0%	23.5%	0.0%	0.00	1.11	—
2018	26	ROK RAW	AZL Rangers	2	1	5	17	4	0	0	50%	2.5	23.5%	0.0%	23.5%	0.0%	0.00	1.50	—
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	27	150	674	122	69	26	90%	5.0	16.7%	10.5%	6.2%	3.6%	5.76	4.99	-0.2
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	27	150	674	122	69	26	90%	5.0	18.1%	10.2%	7.9%	3.9%	5.76	5.11	-0.4
2020	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	6	4	20	91	16	10	3	67%	3.3	17.6%	11.0%	6.6%	2.9%	6.86	4.61	+0.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	6	4	20	91	16	10	3	67%	3.3	17.6%	11.0%	6.6%	3.3%	6.86	4.98	-0.0
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	104	461	60	29	18	76%	4.2	12.5%	6.2%	6.2%	3.6%	6.30	4.79	+0.1
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	104	461	60	29	18	76%	4.2	13.0%	6.3%	6.7%	3.9%	6.30	5.03	-0.2
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	19	103	441	86	34	13	76%	4.1	17.6%	8.0%	9.6%	3.0%	4.44	4.30	+0.7
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	19	103	441	86	34	13	76%	4.1	19.5%	7.7%	11.8%	2.9%	4.44	4.06	+1.0
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	125	566	74	35	24	85%	4.6	11.2%	5.6%	5.6%	4.5%	6.10	5.33	-0.6
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	23	125	566	74	35	24	85%	4.6	11.2%	5.6%	5.6%	4.5%	6.10	5.33	-0.6
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	23	125	566	74	35	24	85%	4.6	13.1%	6.2%	6.9%	4.2%	6.10	5.25	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			71	52	288	1277	173	119	45	73%	4.1	13.5%	9.3%	4.2%	3.5%	5.68	5.17	-0.9
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.9%	8.3%	9.5%	3.3%	4.88	4.82	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	63	266	45	24	10	100%	6.3	16.9%	8.9%	8.0%	3.6%	5.04	5.15	-0.2
2028	36	MLB MLE	MIA	9	9	56	235	37	22	9	100%	6.2	15.9%	9.5%	6.4%	4.0%	5.33	5.52	-0.4
2027	35	MLB CTX	MIA	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	16.9%	8.9%	8.0%	3.6%	5.04	5.15	-0.0
2028	36	MLB CTX	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.9%	9.5%	6.4%	4.0%	5.33	5.52	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		72	53	292	1292	175	120	46	74%	4.1	13.6%	9.3%	4.3%	3.5%	5.67	5.07	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		49	36	200	885	120	82	32	73%	4.1	13.6%	9.3%	4.3%	3.5%	5.67	5.07	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		173	146	811	3560	498	295	102	84%	4.7	14.0%	8.3%	5.7%	2.9%	5.17	4.55	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	36	200	878	123	73	25	84%	4.7	14.0%	8.3%	5.7%	2.9%	5.17	4.55	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chi Chi González (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	17.9%	8.3%	3.3%	—	5.32	16.4%	7.3%	119	+0.50	—	—	—
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	74
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	74
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	74
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.56	486	73
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	71
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	69
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	68
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	67
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	66
Jason Simontacchi R 2007 · 4.96 FIP	33	SP	4.96	13.0%	5.9%	4.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	356	66
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	65
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	65
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	64
Francisco Rodriguez R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	34	SP	4.43	11.4%	8.2%	2.3%	.305	5.18	10.7%	1.4%	83	+0.75	3.16	334	64
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	64
Jesse Estrada R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	33	SP	5.39	8.3%	5.6%	4.2%	.285	4.34	14.4%	7.8%	85	-1.05	3.80	257	62
Rolando Valdez R 2019 · 5.36 FIP	33	SP-	5.36	11.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	258	62
Salvador Valdez R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	34	SP	3.87	9.4%	6.1%	1.4%	.328	4.30	17.1%	8.9%	38	+0.43	3.60	326	61
Francisco Cordova R 2016 · 4.59 FIP	32	SP	4.59	7.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	115	61
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	61

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	68	14.9%	9.2%	1.37	5.44
Jimmy Gobble ('09)	2.2	73	14.7%	8.8%	1.38	5.29
Rocky Biddle ('04)	1.9	76	15.3%	9.9%	1.40	5.47
Carlos Reyes ('03)	2.8	70	14.8%	9.0%	1.39	4.66
Scott Aldred ('00)	2.5	71	13.8%	10.1%	1.40	6.02
Dave Borkowski ('08)	1.7	58	16.9%	9.5%	1.25	5.87
Manny Aybar ('05)	2.0	65	15.6%	9.8%	1.13	5.11