Sean Coyle
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | AAA/ROK2 orgs | 190 | .189/.293/.341 | 6 | 4 | 27 | — | .135/.218/.236 |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 426 | .181/.269/.293 | 8 | 9 | 27 | — | .158/.226/.254 |
| 2017 | 25 | AABowie Baysox | 150 | .187/.273/.306 | 1 | 2 | 26 | — | .157/.220/.257 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 19 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 466 | 384 | 95 | 27 | 7 | 14 | 60 | 110 | 13 | 20 | 6 | 247 | 368 | 464 | 831 | 216 | 303 | 24 | 13 | 363 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 484 | 437 | 109 | 31 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 116 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 249 | 318 | 391 | 709 | 142 | 317 | 24 | 6 | 317 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 224 | 195 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 14 | 24 | 65 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 241 | 327 | 513 | 840 | 272 | 275 | 29 | 11 | 360 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 28 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 320 | 393 | 560 | 953 | 240 | 467 | 32 | 11 | 416 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 24 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 150 | 292 | 300 | 592 | 150 | 154 | 25 | 12 | 280 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 384 | 336 | 99 | 23 | 1 | 16 | 38 | 95 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 295 | 375 | 512 | 887 | 217 | 362 | 25 | 10 | 385 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 76 | 67 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 209 | 303 | 343 | 646 | 134 | 295 | 29 | 9 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 148 | 126 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 44 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 159 | 274 | 302 | 576 | 143 | 195 | 30 | 14 | 264 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | — | 42 | 38 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 289 | 357 | 474 | 831 | 184 | 556 | 45 | 7 | 368 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 80 | 72 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 125 | 192 | 222 | 415 | 97 | 175 | 38 | 8 | 188 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 346 | 303 | 59 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 33 | 112 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 195 | 287 | 310 | 597 | 116 | 286 | 32 | 10 | 272 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 150 | 134 | 25 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 187 | 273 | 306 | 579 | 119 | 247 | 24 | 11 | 266 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 19 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 466 | 403 | 79 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 41 | 155 | 13 | 20 | 6 | 196 | 291 | 367 | 658 | 171 | 262 | 33 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 484 | 448 | 85 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 164 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 190 | 245 | 295 | 540 | 105 | 274 | 34 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 224 | 205 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 14 | 93 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 190 | 245 | 410 | 655 | 220 | 243 | 42 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 28 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 231 | 286 | 423 | 709 | 192 | 395 | 43 | 7 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 24 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 95 | 208 | 238 | 446 | 143 | 122 | 38 | 8 | 187 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 384 | 348 | 89 | 19 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 119 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 256 | 317 | 428 | 745 | 172 | 338 | 31 | 7 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 148 | 131 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 55 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 137 | 226 | 252 | 478 | 115 | 191 | 37 | 10 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | ROK MLE | GCL Red Sox | — | 42 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 128 | 190 | 179 | 370 | 51 | 412 | 64 | 5 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 80 | 74 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 108 | 154 | 203 | 357 | 95 | 167 | 46 | 5 | 151 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 346 | 312 | 53 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 135 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 170 | 243 | 266 | 509 | 96 | 266 | 39 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 150 | 140 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 157 | 220 | 257 | 477 | 100 | 224 | 30 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 466 | 403 | 79 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 41 | 155 | 13 | 20 | 6 | 196 | 291 | 367 | 658 | 171 | 276 | 33 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 466 | 384 | 95 | 27 | 7 | 14 | 60 | 110 | 13 | 20 | 6 | 247 | 368 | 464 | 831 | 216 | 303 | 24 | 13 | 363 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 484 | 448 | 85 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 164 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 190 | 245 | 295 | 540 | 105 | 276 | 34 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A+ RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 484 | 437 | 109 | 31 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 116 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 249 | 318 | 391 | 709 | 142 | 317 | 24 | 6 | 317 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 276 | 252 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 113 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 187 | 246 | 385 | 631 | 198 | 262 | 41 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 276 | 240 | 58 | 12 | 1 | 16 | 30 | 80 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 242 | 331 | 500 | 831 | 258 | 284 | 29 | 11 | 359 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 417 | 107 | 23 | 1 | 16 | 31 | 143 | 7 | 18 | 2 | 257 | 319 | 432 | 750 | 175 | 347 | 31 | 7 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 460 | 403 | 113 | 27 | 2 | 17 | 45 | 117 | 7 | 18 | 2 | 280 | 363 | 484 | 847 | 203 | 352 | 25 | 10 | 371 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 190 | 171 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 83 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 140 | 218 | 257 | 475 | 117 | 229 | 44 | 8 | 207 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 190 | 164 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 63 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 189 | 293 | 341 | 634 | 152 | 263 | 33 | 12 | 287 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 426 | 386 | 60 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 172 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 155 | 224 | 244 | 467 | 88 | 260 | 40 | 7 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 426 | 375 | 68 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 142 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 181 | 269 | 293 | 562 | 112 | 267 | 33 | 9 | 257 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 150 | 139 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 158 | 220 | 259 | 479 | 101 | 226 | 30 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA RAW | Bowie Baysox | — | 150 | 134 | 25 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 187 | 273 | 306 | 579 | 119 | 247 | 24 | 11 | 266 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 466 | 409 | 79 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 41 | 155 | 13 | 20 | 6 | 193 | 291 | 362 | 653 | 169 | 262 | 33 | 9 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 484 | 448 | 85 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 164 | 15 | 16 | 0 | 190 | 245 | 295 | 540 | 105 | 274 | 34 | 4 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 276 | 254 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 13 | 18 | 113 | 2 | 12 | 2 | 185 | 246 | 382 | 628 | 197 | 248 | 41 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 460 | 419 | 107 | 23 | 1 | 16 | 31 | 143 | 7 | 18 | 2 | 255 | 319 | 430 | 748 | 174 | 338 | 31 | 7 | 323 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 190 | 171 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 83 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 140 | 218 | 257 | 475 | 117 | 240 | 44 | 8 | 207 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 426 | 389 | 60 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 172 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 154 | 224 | 242 | 465 | 87 | 247 | 40 | 7 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 150 | 138 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 159 | 220 | 261 | 481 | 101 | 224 | 30 | 7 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2452 | 2216 | 424 | 102 | 11 | 61 | 163 | 875 | 44 | 81 | 20 | 191 | 260 | 330 | 590 | 139 | 280 | 36 | 7 | 257 | 60 | -116 | +8 | +0 | +9 | +53 | -4.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 112 | 27 | 3 | 16 | 43 | 232 | 12 | 21 | 5 | 191 | 260 | 329 | 589 | 138 | 279 | 36 | 7 | 257 | 60 | -31 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AABowie Baysox · 150 PAwOBA .259 → .207 (−52)K% 24.0% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.00% | ÷0.970 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.67% | ÷1.061 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.24% | ÷0.993 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×0.998 | 11.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.22% | ÷1.043 | ×0.860 | ×1.005 | ×0.998 | 9.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.016 | ×0.950 | ×1.005 | ×0.998 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.02% | ÷0.998 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.80% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 109, 3B 103, K 94, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .259 → .207; ISO .119 → .095; BABIP .247 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAArkansas Travelers · 346 PAwOBA .266 → .221 (−45)K% 32.4% → 39.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.37% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.54% | ÷0.979 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.73% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 1.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.37% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×1.012 | 18.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.85% | ÷0.975 | ×0.840 | ×1.021 | ×1.012 | 6.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.021 | ×1.012 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.14% | ÷0.972 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.62% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 99, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .266 → .221; ISO .116 → .094; BABIP .286 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 80 PAwOBA .183 → .151 (−33)K% 37.5% → 46.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 45.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.50% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 5.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷0.957 | ×0.930 | ×0.955 | ×1.048 | 13.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.38% | ÷0.923 | ×0.830 | ×0.955 | ×1.048 | 2.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.912 | ×0.970 | ×0.955 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.994 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 4.22% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 91, 2B 85, 3B 82, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .183 → .151; ISO .097 → .080; BABIP .175 → .167. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 148 PAwOBA .258 → .215 (−42)K% 29.7% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.73% | ÷0.956 | ×1.200 | — | — | 37.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.51% | ÷0.996 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.63% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.050 | 14.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.66% | ÷0.867 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.050 | 3.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.10% | ÷1.012 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 5.31% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 98, 2B 73, 3B 102, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .258 → .215; ISO .143 → .122; BABIP .195 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKGCL Red Sox · 42 PAwOBA .358 → .181 (−178)K% 45.2% → 65.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 45.24% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 65.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 4.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.38% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 1.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.965 | 24.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 14.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 3.96% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .358 → .181; ISO .184 → .085; BABIP .556 → .412. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 384 PAwOBA .378 → .323 (−55)K% 24.7% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.74% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.64% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 6.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.30% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.48% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | ×0.979 | ×1.042 | 23.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.54% | ÷1.025 | ×0.860 | ×0.979 | ×1.042 | 8.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.979 | ×1.042 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.64% | ÷0.959 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 5.63% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 103, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 95, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .378 → .323; ISO .217 → .181; BABIP .362 → .338. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Salem Red Sox · 224 PAwOBA .355 → .274 (−80)K% 29.0% → 41.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.02% | ÷0.994 | ×1.420 | — | — | 41.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.27% | ÷1.054 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.027 | 6.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.027 | 0.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.69% | ÷1.036 | ×0.940 | ×0.996 | ×1.027 | 16.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.92% | ÷1.038 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×1.027 | 5.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.77% | ÷1.129 | ×0.800 | ×0.996 | ×1.027 | 0.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.77% | ÷0.979 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.027 | 10.16% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 108, 3B 126, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .355 → .274; ISO .272 → .222; BABIP .275 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AGreenville Drive · 28 PAwOBA .405 → .292 (−112)K% 32.1% → 43.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.340 | — | — | 43.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷0.986 | ×0.660 | — | ×1.015 | 7.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 23.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷1.124 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 13.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷0.967 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.015 | 5.38% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 125, 3B 130, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .405 → .292; ISO .240 → .167; BABIP .467 → .395. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .