Alex Claudio — OGILVIE

Alex Claudio P Nashville Sounds

Age 34 LHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.32

FIP4.59

K%18.6%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1085.4

Whiff%

p5325.8%

p3720.3%

xwOBA vs

p320.333

CH-0.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	56	229	48	11	6	0%	1.2	19.1%	5.0%	14.2%	2.5%	2.91	3.48	+0.7
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	56	229	48	11	6	0%	1.2	21.0%	4.8%	16.2%	2.6%	2.91	3.37	+0.8
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	68	274	42	13	2	0%	1.5	15.0%	4.8%	10.2%	0.7%	2.25	2.83	+1.4
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	68	274	42	13	2	0%	1.5	15.3%	4.7%	10.6%	0.7%	2.25	2.82	+1.4
2017	25	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	70	1	83	323	56	11	5	1%	1.2	17.3%	3.4%	13.9%	1.5%	2.50	2.88	+1.6
2017	25	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	70	1	83	323	56	11	5	1%	1.2	17.3%	3.4%	13.9%	1.5%	2.50	2.93	+1.6
2018	26	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	66	1	68	299	41	10	4	2%	1.0	13.7%	3.3%	10.4%	1.3%	4.48	3.07	+1.2
2018	26	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	66	1	68	299	41	10	4	2%	1.0	13.7%	3.3%	10.4%	1.3%	4.48	3.10	+1.2
2019	27	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	83	0	62	267	44	22	8	0%	0.7	16.5%	8.2%	8.2%	2.9%	4.06	4.32	+0.2
2019	27	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	83	0	62	267	44	22	8	0%	0.7	16.5%	8.2%	8.2%	3.0%	4.06	4.42	+0.1
2020	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	20	0	19	81	15	6	2	0%	0.9	18.5%	7.4%	11.1%	2.4%	4.26	3.77	+0.2
2020	28	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	20	0	19	81	15	6	2	0%	0.9	18.5%	7.4%	11.1%	2.5%	4.26	3.84	+0.2
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	2	44	200	43	17	6	4%	0.9	20.7%	8.6%	12.1%	2.9%	5.68	4.05	+0.3
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	2	44	200	43	17	6	4%	0.9	21.5%	8.5%	13.0%	3.0%	5.68	4.07	+0.3
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	52	221	44	17	7	0%	1.4	17.8%	7.6%	10.2%	3.6%	3.66	4.53	+0.0
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	52	221	44	17	7	0%	1.4	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	3.2%	3.66	4.15	+0.2
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	1	43	191	26	13	1	2%	0.8	11.5%	6.2%	5.3%	0.6%	4.15	3.27	+0.7
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	1	43	191	26	13	1	2%	0.8	11.5%	6.2%	5.3%	0.6%	4.15	3.27	+0.7
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	1	43	191	26	13	1	2%	0.8	13.6%	6.8%	6.8%	0.5%	4.15	3.10	+0.7
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			341	2	336	1417	235	79	31	1%	1.0	16.6%	5.6%	11.0%	2.2%	3.62	3.61	+3.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	MIL	4	0	4	17	3	2	0	0%	1.0	18.6%	8.9%	9.7%	2.8%	4.32	4.59	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	MIL	45	0	47	200	35	19	6	0%	1.1	17.7%	9.5%	8.2%	3.2%	4.68	4.93	-0.2
2028	36	MLB MLE	MIL	40	0	42	177	29	18	6	0%	1.0	16.6%	10.1%	6.5%	3.5%	5.05	5.29	-0.3
2027	35	MLB CTX	MIL	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	17.7%	9.5%	8.2%	3.2%	4.68	4.93	-0.0
2028	36	MLB CTX	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.6%	10.1%	6.5%	3.5%	5.05	5.29	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		343	2	338	1428	237	80	31	1%	1.0	16.6%	5.6%	11.0%	2.2%	3.63	3.61	+3.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		203	1	200	844	140	47	18	1%	1.0	16.6%	5.6%	11.0%	2.2%	3.63	3.61	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		469	5	495	2085	343	119	41	1%	1.1	16.5%	5.7%	10.8%	2.0%	3.60	3.51	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		189	2	200	842	139	48	17	1%	1.1	16.5%	5.7%	10.8%	2.0%	3.60	3.51	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alex Claudio (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	18.6%	8.9%	2.8%	—	5.10	17.2%	7.4%	89	+0.51	—	—	—
Jerry Blevins L 2018 · 4.43 FIP	34	SU	4.43	21.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.250	4.09	26.2%	16.3%	32	-0.34	2.71	166	77
Craig Breslow L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	34	SU	4.94	16.4%	6.4%	4.4%	.279	4.42	16.2%	6.5%	94	-0.52	4.22	159	73
Neal Cotts L 2015 · 4.66 FIP	35	SU	4.66	21.6%	7.4%	4.4%	.257	3.77	21.9%	14.5%	93	-0.89	3.21	156	71
Tommy Layne L 2019 · 5.60 FIP	34	SU	5.60	18.4%	10.1%	5.1%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	1.32	182	71
Tony Sipp L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	34	SU	4.92	23.6%	8.5%	5.0%	.269	2.59	24.9%	15.9%	60	-2.33	2.22	195	64
Mike Dunn L 2019 · 5.02 FIP	34	SU	5.02	20.0%	8.0%	4.7%	.260	—	—	—	—	—	3.71	181	63
Zach Duke L 2017 · 4.81 FIP	34	SU	4.81	16.2%	5.4%	4.4%	.182	3.42	19.9%	10.0%	75	-1.39	2.44	215	63
Cesár Ramos L 2017 · 4.23 FIP	33	SW	4.23	16.7%	8.3%	2.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	225	62
Ryan Buchter L 2021 · 5.24 FIP	34	SU	5.24	22.9%	13.2%	4.4%	.267	—	—	—	—	—	2.37	296	61
Dana Eveland L 2017 · 4.67 FIP	33	SW	4.67	14.7%	4.7%	4.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.42	129	60
Heriberto Ruelas L 2016 · 3.75 FIP	34	SU	3.75	15.0%	8.9%	1.4%	.310	3.42	17.2%	10.5%	49	-0.33	2.95	117	59
Sean Doolittle L 2021 · 4.00 FIP	34	SU	4.00	23.8%	9.0%	3.2%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	1.39	259	58
Dan Runzler L 2019 · 4.84 FIP	34	SU	4.84	16.0%	13.0%	2.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	127	57
Adam Loewen L 2017 · 4.22 FIP	33	SU	4.22	23.4%	17.4%	1.6%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	176	57
Ross Detwiler L 2020 · 3.49 FIP	34	SU	3.49	18.5%	4.9%	2.4%	.283	4.16	25.7%	18.0%	79	+0.67	3.49	512	56
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	55
James Jones L 2023 · 4.71 FIP	34	SU	4.71	13.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	127	55
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	54
Tony Watson L 2019 · 4.52 FIP	34	SU	4.52	17.7%	4.8%	4.2%	.276	3.67	19.8%	13.1%	75	-0.85	2.21	405	53
Boone Logan L 2018 · 5.29 FIP	33	SU	5.29	24.1%	12.1%	4.9%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	2.58	113	52

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	17.7%	9.5%	1.22	4.66
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38