Ryan Brett
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | AAATB | 354 | .247/.292/.354 | 5 | 4 | 53 | — | .216/.252/.300 |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA/A+2 orgs | 77 | .284/.312/.473 | 2 | 4 | 69 | — | .214/.234/.376 |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA/AACWS | 204 | .237/.267/.340 | 3 | 4 | 26 | — | .188/.212/.269 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 18 | ROK | GCL Rays | — | 99 | 89 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 303 | 367 | 404 | 772 | 101 | 370 | 17 | 8 | 344 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK | Princeton Rays | — | 270 | 240 | 72 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 21 | 3 | 300 | 373 | 471 | 844 | 171 | 321 | 9 | 10 | 371 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 456 | 410 | 117 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 73 | 4 | 48 | 8 | 285 | 350 | 393 | 743 | 107 | 332 | 16 | 8 | 332 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 114 | 105 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 238 | 292 | 400 | 692 | 162 | 247 | 12 | 7 | 305 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 225 | 206 | 70 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 4 | 22 | 7 | 340 | 396 | 490 | 886 | 150 | 377 | 12 | 7 | 393 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 64 | 52 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 154 | 312 | 269 | 582 | 115 | 186 | 14 | 17 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 459 | 422 | 128 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 74 | 5 | 26 | 7 | 303 | 348 | 448 | 796 | 145 | 350 | 16 | 5 | 347 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 354 | 328 | 81 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 64 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 247 | 292 | 354 | 646 | 107 | 288 | 18 | 4 | 287 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA | Durham Bulls | — | 40 | 40 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 250 | 375 | 625 | 125 | 303 | 18 | 0 | 274 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 37 | 34 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 324 | 378 | 588 | 967 | 265 | 391 | 24 | 8 | 420 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 30 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 103 | 71 | 175 | 95 | 23 | 3 | 84 | -68 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 26 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 174 | 166 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 43 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 265 | 295 | 386 | 680 | 120 | 339 | 25 | 3 | 301 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 99 | 92 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 228 | 276 | 293 | 569 | 65 | 307 | 24 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 270 | 250 | 59 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 34 | 2 | 21 | 3 | 236 | 287 | 360 | 647 | 124 | 258 | 13 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 456 | 422 | 108 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 102 | 4 | 48 | 8 | 256 | 304 | 336 | 640 | 81 | 320 | 22 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 114 | 107 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 206 | 248 | 327 | 575 | 121 | 224 | 15 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 225 | 210 | 65 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 40 | 4 | 22 | 7 | 310 | 356 | 457 | 813 | 148 | 359 | 18 | 5 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 459 | 429 | 121 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 87 | 5 | 26 | 7 | 282 | 317 | 399 | 716 | 117 | 331 | 19 | 4 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 354 | 333 | 72 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 75 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 216 | 252 | 300 | 552 | 84 | 260 | 21 | 3 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 40 | 40 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 200 | 200 | 300 | 500 | 100 | 267 | 20 | 0 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 37 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 229 | 270 | 457 | 727 | 229 | 335 | 35 | 5 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 30 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 71 | 103 | 71 | 175 | 86 | 30 | 3 | 68 | -68 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 174 | 168 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 52 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 208 | 231 | 304 | 535 | 95 | 280 | 30 | 2 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 99 | 92 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 228 | 276 | 293 | 569 | 65 | 304 | 24 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Rays | — | 99 | 89 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 303 | 367 | 404 | 772 | 101 | 370 | 17 | 8 | 344 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 270 | 250 | 59 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 34 | 2 | 21 | 3 | 236 | 287 | 360 | 647 | 124 | 264 | 13 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK RAW | Princeton Rays | — | 270 | 240 | 72 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 21 | 3 | 300 | 373 | 471 | 844 | 171 | 321 | 9 | 10 | 371 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 456 | 422 | 108 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 102 | 4 | 48 | 8 | 256 | 304 | 336 | 640 | 81 | 326 | 22 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 456 | 410 | 117 | 20 | 3 | 6 | 37 | 73 | 4 | 48 | 8 | 285 | 350 | 393 | 743 | 107 | 332 | 16 | 8 | 332 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 403 | 377 | 102 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 68 | 5 | 33 | 7 | 271 | 316 | 403 | 719 | 133 | 314 | 17 | 5 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 403 | 363 | 103 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 34 | 50 | 5 | 33 | 7 | 284 | 353 | 433 | 786 | 149 | 313 | 12 | 8 | 350 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 459 | 429 | 121 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 87 | 5 | 26 | 7 | 282 | 317 | 399 | 716 | 117 | 339 | 19 | 4 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AA RAW | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 459 | 422 | 128 | 25 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 74 | 5 | 26 | 7 | 303 | 348 | 448 | 796 | 145 | 350 | 16 | 5 | 347 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 354 | 333 | 72 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 75 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 216 | 252 | 300 | 552 | 84 | 263 | 21 | 3 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA RAW | Durham Bulls | — | 354 | 328 | 81 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 64 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 247 | 292 | 354 | 646 | 107 | 288 | 18 | 4 | 287 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 77 | 75 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 227 | 247 | 387 | 633 | 160 | 288 | 27 | 3 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 77 | 74 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 284 | 312 | 473 | 785 | 189 | 339 | 21 | 4 | 344 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 204 | 196 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 61 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 189 | 213 | 270 | 483 | 82 | 261 | 30 | 2 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 204 | 194 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 50 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 237 | 267 | 340 | 608 | 103 | 303 | 25 | 3 | 269 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Rays | — | 99 | 93 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 226 | 276 | 290 | 566 | 65 | 307 | 24 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 270 | 250 | 59 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 34 | 2 | 21 | 3 | 236 | 287 | 360 | 647 | 124 | 258 | 13 | 6 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 456 | 424 | 108 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 102 | 4 | 48 | 8 | 255 | 304 | 335 | 639 | 80 | 320 | 22 | 5 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 403 | 375 | 102 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 68 | 5 | 33 | 7 | 272 | 316 | 405 | 721 | 133 | 314 | 17 | 5 | 311 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 459 | 434 | 121 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 87 | 5 | 26 | 7 | 279 | 317 | 394 | 711 | 115 | 331 | 19 | 4 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | AAA MLE | Durham Bulls | — | 354 | 335 | 72 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 75 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 215 | 252 | 299 | 551 | 84 | 260 | 21 | 3 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 77 | 75 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 227 | 247 | 387 | 633 | 160 | 300 | 27 | 3 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 204 | 196 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 61 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 189 | 213 | 270 | 483 | 82 | 251 | 30 | 2 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2322 | 2174 | 537 | 106 | 20 | 27 | 99 | 472 | 25 | 152 | 32 | 247 | 288 | 351 | 639 | 104 | 302 | 20 | 4 | 279 | 75 | -70 | +18 | -0 | +8 | +50 | 0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 609 | 151 | 30 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 132 | 7 | 43 | 9 | 248 | 289 | 356 | 645 | 108 | 302 | 20 | 4 | 279 | 75 | -20 | +5 | -0 | +2 | +14 | 0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AABirmingham Barons · 174 PAwOBA .295 → .231 (−64)K% 24.7% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.71% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.87% | ÷0.954 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 2.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.20% | ÷1.069 | ×0.920 | ×0.969 | ×0.978 | 20.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.32% | ÷0.969 | ×0.910 | ×0.969 | ×0.978 | 6.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.969 | ×0.978 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.44% | ÷0.949 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.01% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 114, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 101, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .295 → .231; ISO .120 → .097; BABIP .339 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAACharlotte Knights · 30 PAwOBA .082 → .068 (−14)K% 23.3% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.33% | ÷0.986 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.33% | ÷1.030 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 2.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.030 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 8.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.077 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.319 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .082 → .068; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .095 → .086. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAADurham Bulls · 40 PAwOBA .266 → .224 (−42)K% 17.5% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.50% | ÷1.027 | ×1.200 | — | — | 20.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.993 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.15% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 14.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.15% | ÷1.008 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 12.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.022 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.049 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 105, 2B 102, 3B 104, K 105, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .266 → .224; ISO .125 → .101; BABIP .303 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 37 PAwOBA .408 → .319 (−89)K% 24.3% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.32% | ÷1.017 | ×1.420 | — | — | 33.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.11% | ÷0.967 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.968 | 6.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.00% | ÷1.073 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 19.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.968 | 11.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.024 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.00% | ÷0.917 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 7.43% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 115, 2B 102, 3B 105, K 103, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .408 → .319; ISO .265 → .218; BABIP .391 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAADurham Bulls · 354 PAwOBA .283 → .246 (−37)K% 18.1% → 21.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.08% | ÷1.025 | ×1.200 | — | — | 21.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.24% | ÷1.148 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 2.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.59% | ÷1.025 | ×0.930 | ×0.983 | ×1.048 | 20.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.82% | ÷1.062 | ×0.830 | ×0.983 | ×1.048 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.38% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.983 | ×1.048 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.89% | ÷1.039 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.048 | 1.61% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 105, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.
Result: wOBA .283 → .246; ISO .107 → .090; BABIP .288 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 459 PAwOBA .339 → .308 (−31)K% 16.1% → 19.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.12% | ÷1.036 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.01% | ÷0.945 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 3.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.57% | ÷0.967 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 25.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.18% | ÷1.057 | ×0.910 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 6.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.004 | ×1.027 | 1.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.30% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.82% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 107, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .339 → .308; ISO .145 → .121; BABIP .350 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Charlotte Stone Crabs · 225 PAwOBA .383 → .341 (−41)K% 12.0% → 17.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.00% | ÷0.950 | ×1.420 | — | — | 17.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.010 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 5.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.78% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.49% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×1.012 | 26.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.15% | ÷0.983 | ×0.960 | ×1.021 | ×1.012 | 6.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.23% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.021 | ×1.012 | 2.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.23% | ÷0.888 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.24% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .383 → .341; ISO .150 → .141; BABIP .377 → .359. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAMontgomery Biscuits · 114 PAwOBA .299 → .252 (−47)K% 12.3% → 15.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.28% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.02% | ÷1.003 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 4.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.48% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×0.972 | ×1.042 | 15.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.59% | ÷1.036 | ×0.910 | ×0.972 | ×1.042 | 5.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.10% | ÷1.013 | ×0.880 | ×0.972 | ×1.042 | 0.97% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.30% | ÷1.151 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 2.39% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 103, K 97, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.
Result: wOBA .299 → .252; ISO .162 → .130; BABIP .247 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).