Breyvic Valera

PosLF

B/TS/R

Born1992-01-08

Age (2027)35

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

INTL

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2024	32	INTLBravos de Mar…	155	.307/.425/.417	1	6	143	—
2025	33	INTLBravos de Mar…	245	.284/.376/.403	2	4	122	—
2026	34	INTLNavegantes de…	60	.291/.328/.473	2	0	116	—

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2018-2021

Speed37

xwOBA26

Barrel%10

Avg EV10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2010	18	ROK	VSL Cardinals	—	248	212	69	16	6	1	24	15	5	10	3	325	407	472	878	146	342	6	10	380	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK	Johnson City Cardinals	—	204	183	57	9	3	1	15	26	3	14	6	311	373	410	783	98	352	13	7	348	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	562	515	159	18	6	0	40	30	1	13	7	309	360	367	727	58	326	5	7	327	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	226	202	55	5	7	0	15	18	1	6	5	272	326	366	692	94	291	8	7	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	247	227	65	8	2	0	15	22	0	4	5	286	331	339	670	53	316	9	6	299	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	323	294	98	8	4	0	25	13	1	13	10	333	388	388	775	54	346	4	8	349	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	151	134	44	7	0	0	13	12	1	7	4	328	392	381	772	52	358	8	9	346	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	401	360	85	9	2	3	34	27	1	2	4	236	304	297	601	61	246	7	8	274	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	62	51	18	3	1	0	11	2	0	0	3	353	468	451	919	98	367	3	18	416	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	251	212	62	9	4	2	30	12	2	8	13	292	385	401	786	108	299	5	12	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	257	217	74	14	1	0	31	22	1	8	4	341	426	415	840	74	370	9	12	371	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	192	178	46	5	1	0	9	18	0	3	1	258	294	298	592	39	282	9	5	263	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	249	219	78	13	6	7	24	18	2	11	7	356	424	566	991	210	359	7	10	427	175	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	470	424	133	22	6	8	38	34	1	11	11	314	371	450	822	137	324	7	8	361	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	93	74	19	3	1	0	18	5	0	2	2	257	402	324	726	68	271	5	19	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	75	64	15	0	1	0	7	13	0	1	0	234	310	266	575	31	283	17	9	256	58	-4	+0	+1	+2	+2	0.1
2018	26	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	383	341	89	14	4	9	37	34	1	7	8	261	335	405	740	144	267	9	10	329	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	52	47	11	2	1	1	4	7	1	0	0	234	308	383	691	149	256	13	8	310	95	-0	+0	-0	+2	+1	0.2
2019	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	440	379	115	21	2	14	50	44	4	10	7	303	390	480	871	177	314	10	11	381	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	169	135	45	6	1	0	28	6	2	12	3	333	455	393	847	59	338	4	17	383	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB	Toronto Blue Jays	—	97	87	22	6	0	1	8	12	0	1	0	253	316	356	672	103	280	12	8	298	88	-1	+0	+1	+1	+2	0.3
2021	29	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	180	150	47	11	1	3	24	19	2	7	4	313	415	460	875	147	333	11	13	384	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	63	46	13	3	0	1	15	3	1	3	2	283	468	413	881	130	279	5	24	401	158	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	159	135	32	5	0	0	20	4	0	5	3	237	335	274	610	37	241	3	13	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	242	195	54	12	3	1	42	21	2	12	4	277	410	385	795	108	301	9	17	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	155	127	39	9	1	1	26	9	0	6	3	307	425	417	842	110	319	6	17	379	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	245	211	60	13	3	2	30	18	1	4	6	284	376	403	779	118	299	7	12	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	INTL	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	60	55	16	2	1	2	3	4	0	0	1	291	328	473	800	182	280	7	5	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	224	198	48	8	2	2	19	32	1	2	0	242	312	333	645	91	275	14	8	287	80	-5	+0	+2	+5	+5	0.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2010	18	ROK MLE	VSL Cardinals	—	248	219	49	10	4	1	17	18	5	10	3	224	295	320	614	96	228	7	7	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	204	188	45	6	2	1	10	37	3	14	6	239	289	309	597	69	282	18	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	562	529	153	13	6	0	26	42	1	13	7	289	324	336	660	47	311	7	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	247	231	63	7	2	0	11	28	0	4	5	273	306	320	626	48	303	11	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	323	299	92	9	4	0	20	18	1	13	10	308	353	365	718	57	319	6	6	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	401	370	83	8	2	2	24	34	1	2	4	224	273	273	546	49	235	8	6	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	A+ MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	62	53	17	3	1	0	9	3	0	0	3	321	419	415	834	94	331	5	15	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	257	225	72	13	1	0	23	29	1	8	4	320	386	387	772	67	341	11	9	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	192	181	45	4	1	0	6	22	0	3	1	249	273	282	554	33	274	11	3	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	470	435	120	18	4	7	27	43	1	11	11	276	320	384	704	108	288	9	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	75	64	15	0	1	0	7	13	0	1	0	234	310	266	575	31	283	17	9	254	58	-4	+0	+1	+2	+2	0.1
2018	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	383	353	81	11	3	8	25	41	1	7	8	229	282	346	628	116	238	11	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	52	47	11	2	1	1	4	7	1	0	0	234	308	383	691	149	256	13	8	308	95	-0	+0	-0	+2	+1	0.2
2019	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	440	398	101	17	2	11	31	52	4	10	7	254	314	389	704	136	265	12	7	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	—	97	87	22	6	0	1	8	12	0	1	0	253	316	356	672	103	280	12	8	298	88	-1	+0	+1	+1	+2	0.3
2021	29	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	180	158	41	10	1	2	16	24	2	7	4	259	335	373	709	114	271	13	9	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK MLE	VSL Cardinals	—	248	219	49	10	4	1	17	18	5	10	3	224	295	320	614	96	236	7	7	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK RAW	VSL Cardinals	—	248	212	69	16	6	1	24	15	5	10	3	325	407	472	878	146	342	6	10	380	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	204	188	45	6	2	1	10	37	3	14	6	239	289	309	597	69	288	18	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK RAW	Johnson City Cardinals	—	204	183	57	9	3	1	15	26	3	14	6	311	373	410	783	98	352	13	7	348	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	788	735	216	19	9	0	37	58	2	19	12	294	329	344	674	50	316	7	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	788	717	214	23	13	0	55	48	2	19	12	298	350	367	717	68	317	6	7	319	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	721	670	195	20	7	0	38	58	2	24	19	291	331	342	673	51	317	8	5	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	721	655	207	23	6	0	53	47	2	24	19	316	369	369	738	53	338	7	7	331	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	714	646	153	17	4	3	52	56	3	10	20	237	297	289	586	53	253	8	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	714	623	165	21	7	5	75	41	3	10	20	265	347	345	692	80	274	6	11	312	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	698	633	182	27	3	0	45	78	3	22	12	288	338	340	677	52	321	11	6	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	698	614	198	32	8	7	64	58	3	22	12	322	389	435	824	112	340	8	9	361	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	563	521	144	22	5	8	33	52	1	13	13	276	321	384	705	107	292	9	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	563	498	152	25	7	8	56	39	1	13	13	305	377	432	808	127	316	7	10	357	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	458	417	96	11	4	8	32	54	1	8	8	230	287	333	620	103	245	12	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	458	405	104	14	5	9	44	47	1	8	8	257	331	383	714	126	269	10	10	317	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	492	445	112	19	3	12	35	59	5	10	7	252	313	389	702	137	267	12	7	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	492	426	126	23	3	15	54	51	5	10	7	296	381	469	851	174	307	10	11	374	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	INTL MLE	Bravos de Margarita	—	169	135	45	6	1	0	28	6	2	12	3	333	455	393	847	59	338	4	17	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	INTL RAW	Bravos de Margarita	—	169	135	45	6	1	0	28	6	2	12	3	333	455	393	847	59	338	4	17	383	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	340	301	77	19	1	4	29	44	3	11	6	256	327	365	693	110	282	13	9	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	340	283	82	20	1	5	47	34	3	11	6	290	396	420	817	131	308	10	14	363	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	INTL MLE	Bravos de Margarita	—	159	135	32	5	0	0	20	4	0	5	3	237	335	274	610	37	241	3	13	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	INTL RAW	Bravos de Margarita	—	159	135	32	5	0	0	20	4	0	5	3	237	335	274	610	37	241	3	13	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	INTL MLE	Bravos de Margarita	—	242	195	54	12	3	1	42	21	2	12	4	277	410	385	795	108	301	9	17	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	31	INTL RAW	Bravos de Margarita	—	242	195	54	12	3	1	42	21	2	12	4	277	410	385	795	108	301	9	17	362	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	INTL MLE	Bravos de Margarita	—	155	127	39	9	1	1	26	9	0	6	3	307	425	417	842	110	319	6	17	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	32	INTL RAW	Bravos de Margarita	—	155	127	39	9	1	1	26	9	0	6	3	307	425	417	842	110	319	6	17	379	143	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	INTL MLE	Bravos de Margarita	—	245	211	60	13	3	2	30	18	1	4	6	284	376	403	779	118	299	7	12	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	33	INTL RAW	Bravos de Margarita	—	245	211	60	13	3	2	30	18	1	4	6	284	376	403	779	118	299	7	12	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	INTL MLE	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	60	55	16	2	1	2	3	4	0	0	1	291	328	473	800	182	280	7	5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	34	INTL RAW	Navegantes del Magallanes	—	60	55	16	2	1	2	3	4	0	0	1	291	328	473	800	182	280	7	5	340	116	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK MLE	VSL Cardinals	—	248	224	49	10	4	1	17	18	5	10	3	219	295	312	607	94	228	7	7	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	204	189	45	6	2	1	10	37	3	14	6	238	289	307	595	69	282	18	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	788	743	216	19	9	0	37	58	2	19	12	291	329	341	670	50	311	7	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	721	675	195	20	7	0	38	58	2	24	19	289	331	339	670	50	312	8	5	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	714	653	153	17	4	3	52	56	3	10	20	234	297	286	583	52	248	8	7	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	698	645	182	27	3	0	45	78	3	22	12	282	338	333	671	51	312	11	6	299	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	563	524	144	22	5	8	33	52	1	13	13	275	321	382	702	107	288	9	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	458	422	96	11	4	8	32	54	1	8	8	227	287	329	616	102	245	12	7	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	492	449	112	19	3	12	35	59	5	10	7	249	313	385	699	136	264	12	7	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	340	305	77	19	1	4	29	44	3	11	6	252	327	361	688	108	274	13	9	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	224	198	48	8	2	2	19	32	1	2	0	242	312	333	645	91	275	14	8	287	50	-5	+0	+2	+5	+5	0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	139	23	6	6	55	93	3	6	0	242	312	334	646	92	274	14	8	287	50	-15	+1	+5	+13	+14	1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	6256	5633	1515	217	51	43	477	576	33	180	126	269	330	348	678	80	290	9	8	241	50	-5	+0	+2	+5	+5	0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	157	23	5	4	50	60	3	19	13	268	329	345	674	77	290	9	8	241	50	-15	+1	+5	+13	+14	1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAABuffalo Bisons · 180 PAwOBA .383 → .306 (−77)K% 10.6% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.56%	÷0.965	×1.200	—	—	13.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.33%	÷1.024	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.82%
HBP% /PA	1.11%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.03%
Singles /BIP	24.43%	÷1.071	×0.930	×0.964	×0.982	20.09%
Doubles /BIP	8.40%	÷0.962	×0.830	×0.964	×0.982	6.86%
Triples /BIP	0.76%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.964	×0.982	0.58%
Home runs /BIP	2.29%	÷1.081	×0.700	—	×0.982	1.46%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 114, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 93, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .383 → .306; ISO .147 → .114; BABIP .333 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 440 PAwOBA .371 → .308 (−62)K% 10.0% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.00%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	11.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.91%	÷1.066	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.08%
HBP% /PA	0.91%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.86%
Singles /BIP	23.28%	÷1.019	×0.930	×0.950	×1.003	20.24%
Doubles /BIP	6.27%	÷1.009	×0.830	×0.950	×1.003	4.91%
Triples /BIP	0.60%	÷0.938	×0.970	×0.950	×1.003	0.59%
Home runs /BIP	4.18%	÷1.087	×0.840	—	×1.003	3.24%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 88, K 101, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .371 → .308; ISO .177 → .147; BABIP .314 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANorfolk Tides · 383 PAwOBA .321 → .279 (−42)K% 8.9% → 10.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.88%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	10.56%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.40%	÷0.997	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.62%
HBP% /PA	0.26%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.25%
Singles /BIP	20.20%	÷0.984	×0.930	×0.965	×1.018	18.76%
Doubles /BIP	4.56%	÷1.063	×0.830	×0.965	×1.018	3.50%
Triples /BIP	1.30%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.965	×1.018	1.08%
Home runs /BIP	2.93%	÷0.964	×0.840	—	×1.018	2.60%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .321 → .279; ISO .144 → .125; BABIP .267 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 470 PAwOBA .354 → .308 (−46)K% 7.2% → 9.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	7.23%	÷1.010	×1.290	—	—	9.24%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.87%	÷0.997	×0.710	—	×1.033	5.79%
HBP% /PA	0.21%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.22%
Singles /BIP	24.87%	÷1.001	×0.900	×0.992	×1.033	22.92%
Doubles /BIP	5.64%	÷1.021	×0.810	×0.992	×1.033	4.59%
Triples /BIP	1.54%	÷1.135	×0.810	×0.992	×1.033	1.13%
Home runs /BIP	2.05%	÷0.980	×0.780	—	×1.033	1.69%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 100, 2B 104, 3B 127, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.

Result: wOBA .354 → .308; ISO .137 → .112; BABIP .324 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 257 PAwOBA .368 → .337 (−30)K% 8.6% → 11.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.56%	÷0.988	×1.290	—	—	11.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.67%	÷0.983	×0.710	—	×1.048	8.84%
HBP% /PA	0.39%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.40%
Singles /BIP	30.26%	÷0.989	×0.900	×0.977	×1.048	28.18%
Doubles /BIP	7.18%	÷0.941	×0.810	×0.977	×1.048	6.33%
Triples /BIP	0.51%	÷0.951	×0.810	×0.977	×1.048	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.931	×0.780	—	×1.048	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 90, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .368 → .337; ISO .074 → .068; BABIP .370 → .341. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AASpringfield Cardinals · 192 PAwOBA .260 → .249 (−12)K% 9.4% → 11.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.38%	÷1.019	×1.220	—	—	11.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.69%	÷0.999	×0.700	—	×1.012	3.32%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.870	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.966	×0.920	×1.015	×1.012	24.46%
Doubles /BIP	3.12%	÷0.986	×0.840	×1.015	×1.012	2.73%
Triples /BIP	0.62%	÷0.900	×0.940	×1.015	×1.012	0.67%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.155	×0.800	—	×1.012	0.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 93, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.

Result: wOBA .260 → .249; ISO .039 → .038; BABIP .282 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AASpringfield Cardinals · 401 PAwOBA .270 → .246 (−24)K% 6.7% → 8.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	6.73%	÷0.978	×1.220	—	—	8.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.48%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.027	6.09%
HBP% /PA	0.25%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.22%
Singles /BIP	21.32%	÷0.982	×0.920	×1.010	×1.027	20.73%
Doubles /BIP	2.70%	÷1.003	×0.840	×1.010	×1.027	2.35%
Triples /BIP	0.60%	÷1.003	×0.940	×1.010	×1.027	0.58%
Home runs /BIP	0.90%	÷1.140	×0.800	—	×1.027	0.65%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 101, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .270 → .246; ISO .061 → .052; BABIP .246 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 A+Palm Beach Cardinals · 62 PAwOBA .407 → .360 (−47)K% 3.2% → 4.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	3.23%	÷0.976	×1.420	—	—	4.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.74%	÷0.907	×0.750	—	×0.998	14.64%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.024	×0.920	×1.020	×0.998	26.13%
Doubles /BIP	6.12%	÷1.102	×0.960	×1.020	×0.998	5.43%
Triples /BIP	2.04%	÷1.122	×0.810	×1.020	×0.998	1.50%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.989	×0.880	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 105, 2B 120, 3B 124, K 95, BB 81 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .407 → .360; ISO .098 → .083; BABIP .367 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .