Óscar Hernández
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 24 | AAJackson Gener… | 255 | .197/.258/.348 | 8 | 0 | 32 | — | .164/.210/.277 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAAPawtucket Red… | 171 | .205/.286/.272 | 1 | 1 | 26 | — | .173/.232/.224 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 248 | .209/.280/.368 | 8 | 2 | 60 | — | .176/.228/.313 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 17 | ROK | VSL Rays | — | 119 | 103 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 322 | 398 | 720 | 175 | 235 | 16 | 9 | 323 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK | VSL Rays | — | 294 | 239 | 96 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 37 | 44 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 402 | 509 | 732 | 1.241 | 331 | 424 | 15 | 13 | 525 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK | Princeton Rays | — | 195 | 160 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 231 | 356 | 394 | 750 | 162 | 250 | 16 | 12 | 335 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 397 | 362 | 90 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 78 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 249 | 304 | 401 | 705 | 152 | 289 | 20 | 6 | 309 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 36 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 257 | 194 | 451 | 32 | 312 | 42 | 8 | 215 | 29 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2015 | 22 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 27 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 240 | 269 | 360 | 629 | 120 | 300 | 19 | 4 | 269 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 62 | 56 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 258 | 232 | 490 | 54 | 238 | 23 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Mobile BayBears | — | 150 | 144 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 194 | 227 | 382 | 609 | 187 | 191 | 18 | 3 | 267 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | — | 133 | 112 | 33 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 295 | 402 | 464 | 866 | 170 | 361 | 20 | 14 | 385 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | INTL | Leones del Caracas | — | 60 | 55 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 254 | 364 | 618 | 164 | 200 | 13 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 255 | 233 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 58 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 258 | 348 | 606 | 150 | 226 | 23 | 7 | 269 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 171 | 151 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 286 | 272 | 557 | 66 | 263 | 22 | 8 | 256 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 168 | 148 | 31 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 276 | 399 | 675 | 189 | 225 | 20 | 7 | 290 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 26 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 154 | 83 | 237 | 154 | 42 | 8 | 123 | -52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2019 | 26 | INTL | Navegantes del Magallanes | — | 54 | 48 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 271 | 352 | 417 | 769 | 146 | 275 | 11 | 7 | 347 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 36 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 257 | 194 | 451 | 32 | 312 | 42 | 8 | 215 | 32 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +1 | -0.0 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 17 | ROK MLE | VSL Rays | — | 119 | 106 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 142 | 229 | 236 | 465 | 94 | 145 | 19 | 7 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | VSL Rays | — | 294 | 255 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 54 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 247 | 340 | 420 | 760 | 173 | 254 | 18 | 7 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 195 | 168 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 173 | 272 | 292 | 564 | 119 | 192 | 23 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 397 | 372 | 78 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 107 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 210 | 248 | 333 | 581 | 124 | 261 | 27 | 4 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MLB MLE | Arizona Diamondbacks | — | 36 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 257 | 194 | 451 | 32 | 312 | 42 | 8 | 211 | 29 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +1 | -0.1 |
| 2015 | 22 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 27 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 231 | 280 | 511 | 80 | 265 | 26 | 4 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 150 | 145 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 145 | 173 | 276 | 449 | 131 | 154 | 23 | 3 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 133 | 117 | 26 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 34 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 311 | 333 | 644 | 111 | 297 | 26 | 10 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 255 | 238 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 72 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 210 | 277 | 488 | 113 | 202 | 28 | 5 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 171 | 156 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 173 | 232 | 224 | 457 | 51 | 230 | 26 | 5 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 168 | 152 | 29 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 245 | 349 | 594 | 158 | 206 | 23 | 5 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 26 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 115 | 80 | 195 | 145 | 54 | 4 | 91 | -52 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2010 | 17 | ROK MLE | VSL Rays | — | 119 | 106 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 142 | 229 | 236 | 465 | 94 | 159 | 19 | 7 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 17 | ROK RAW | VSL Rays | — | 119 | 103 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 322 | 398 | 720 | 175 | 235 | 16 | 9 | 323 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | VSL Rays | — | 294 | 255 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 54 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 247 | 340 | 420 | 760 | 173 | 269 | 18 | 7 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK RAW | VSL Rays | — | 294 | 239 | 96 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 37 | 44 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 402 | 509 | 732 | 1.241 | 331 | 424 | 15 | 13 | 525 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 195 | 168 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 173 | 272 | 292 | 564 | 119 | 202 | 23 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK RAW | Princeton Rays | — | 195 | 160 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 31 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 231 | 356 | 394 | 750 | 162 | 250 | 16 | 12 | 335 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 397 | 372 | 78 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 107 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 210 | 248 | 333 | 581 | 124 | 270 | 27 | 4 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A RAW | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 397 | 362 | 90 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 78 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 249 | 304 | 401 | 705 | 152 | 289 | 20 | 6 | 309 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 125 | 114 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 43 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 236 | 228 | 464 | 53 | 282 | 34 | 6 | 215 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | INTL RAW | 3 teams | — | 125 | 112 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 260 | 250 | 510 | 62 | 269 | 27 | 7 | 235 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 343 | 317 | 58 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 82 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 183 | 240 | 312 | 553 | 129 | 217 | 24 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 343 | 311 | 72 | 19 | 0 | 12 | 26 | 61 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 232 | 299 | 408 | 707 | 177 | 252 | 18 | 8 | 314 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 255 | 238 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 72 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 210 | 277 | 488 | 113 | 205 | 28 | 5 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA RAW | Jackson Generals | — | 255 | 233 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 58 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 197 | 258 | 348 | 606 | 150 | 226 | 23 | 7 | 269 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 171 | 156 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 173 | 232 | 224 | 457 | 51 | 234 | 26 | 5 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA RAW | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 171 | 151 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 286 | 272 | 557 | 66 | 263 | 22 | 8 | 256 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 248 | 226 | 39 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 68 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 173 | 230 | 305 | 536 | 133 | 214 | 27 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 248 | 220 | 46 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 50 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 280 | 368 | 648 | 159 | 232 | 20 | 7 | 285 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 17 | ROK MLE | VSL Rays | — | 119 | 106 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 142 | 229 | 236 | 465 | 94 | 145 | 19 | 7 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | VSL Rays | — | 294 | 256 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 54 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 246 | 340 | 418 | 758 | 172 | 254 | 18 | 7 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Princeton Rays | — | 195 | 170 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 171 | 272 | 288 | 560 | 118 | 192 | 23 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 397 | 375 | 78 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 107 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 208 | 248 | 331 | 579 | 123 | 261 | 27 | 4 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | INTL MLE | 3 teams | — | 125 | 115 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 43 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 174 | 236 | 226 | 462 | 52 | 292 | 34 | 6 | 215 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 343 | 316 | 58 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 20 | 82 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 184 | 240 | 313 | 554 | 130 | 221 | 24 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 255 | 239 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 72 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 163 | 210 | 276 | 486 | 113 | 202 | 28 | 5 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 171 | 157 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 172 | 232 | 223 | 455 | 51 | 230 | 26 | 5 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 248 | 229 | 39 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 68 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 170 | 230 | 301 | 532 | 131 | 198 | 27 | 5 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 36 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 257 | 194 | 451 | 32 | 312 | 42 | 8 | 215 | 51 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 560 | 90 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 54 | 271 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 256 | 193 | 449 | 32 | 311 | 42 | 8 | 215 | 51 | -53 | +0 | -8 | +40 | +14 | -0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2147 | 1952 | 368 | 80 | 7 | 46 | 120 | 538 | 46 | 13 | 13 | 189 | 252 | 307 | 560 | 119 | 232 | 25 | 6 | 244 | 51 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 111 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 36 | 163 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 188 | 251 | 306 | 557 | 118 | 232 | 25 | 6 | 244 | 51 | -53 | +0 | -8 | +40 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 168 PAwOBA .286 → .252 (−34)K% 19.6% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.64% | ÷1.002 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.14% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.04% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 12.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 7.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.22% | ÷1.038 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 4.30% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 91, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .286 → .252; ISO .189 → .165; BABIP .225 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 26 PAwOBA .121 → .091 (−30)K% 42.3% → 52.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 42.31% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 52.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷0.997 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 14.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.158 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.953 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 103, 2B 132, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .121 → .091; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .154 → .145. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 171 PAwOBA .252 → .206 (−46)K% 21.6% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.64% | ÷0.994 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.19% | ÷1.082 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.75% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 18.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.14% | ÷1.067 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 4.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.88% | ÷1.342 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 0.57% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 100, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 99, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .252 → .206; ISO .066 → .048; BABIP .263 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAJackson Generals · 255 PAwOBA .262 → .216 (−47)K% 22.7% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.75% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷0.987 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 4.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.43% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | ×0.958 | ×1.012 | 14.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.29% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×0.958 | ×1.012 | 5.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.958 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.57% | ÷0.985 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.76% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .262 → .216; ISO .150 → .122; BABIP .226 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAMobile BayBears · 150 PAwOBA .259 → .192 (−67)K% 18.0% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.00% | ÷0.977 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.33% | ÷0.975 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 2.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.82% | ÷1.065 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 10.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.146 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 3.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.98% | ÷1.160 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 4.24% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 113, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .259 → .192; ISO .188 → .130; BABIP .191 → .154. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Visalia Rawhide · 133 PAwOBA .375 → .292 (−83)K% 19.5% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.55% | ÷1.020 | ×1.340 | — | — | 25.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.53% | ÷1.008 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 9.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.50% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.26% | ÷0.994 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 20.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.63% | ÷1.038 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 8.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.065 | ×0.760 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.49% | ÷1.134 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 2.82% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 99, 2B 108, 3B 113, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .375 → .292; ISO .170 → .130; BABIP .361 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAAReno Aces · 27 PAwOBA .262 → .219 (−42)K% 18.5% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.52% | ÷0.969 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.70% | ÷0.997 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 2.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.964 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.050 | 14.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷1.083 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.050 | 11.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 93, 2B 117, 3B 130, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .262 → .219; ISO .120 → .092; BABIP .300 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ABowling Green Hot Rods · 397 PAwOBA .304 → .250 (−54)K% 19.6% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.65% | ÷0.991 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.05% | ÷1.073 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 3.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.42% | ÷0.976 | ×0.920 | ×0.960 | ×1.015 | 18.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.34% | ÷0.946 | ×0.830 | ×0.960 | ×1.015 | 5.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.76% | ÷0.920 | ×0.910 | ×0.960 | ×1.015 | 1.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.17% | ÷0.966 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.66% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 95, 2B 89, 3B 84, K 98, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .304 → .250; ISO .152 → .126; BABIP .289 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .