Sherman Johnson
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 28 | AAA/AA/INTL3 orgs | 398 | .254/.365/.403 | 7 | 10 | 81 | — | .186/.255/.301 |
| 2019 | 29 | AAACIN | 241 | .241/.353/.355 | 4 | 4 | 49 | — | .198/.269/.295 |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA/AAMIN | 275 | .202/.353/.332 | 5 | 3 | 46 | — | .154/.262/.241 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 22 | ROK | Orem Owlz | — | 240 | 182 | 49 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 49 | 40 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 269 | 429 | 407 | 836 | 137 | 329 | 17 | 20 | 373 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 31 | 26 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 308 | 379 | 500 | 879 | 192 | 364 | 16 | 10 | 361 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A | Burlington Bees | — | 478 | 398 | 104 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 66 | 87 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 261 | 374 | 372 | 746 | 111 | 322 | 18 | 14 | 337 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 629 | 529 | 146 | 23 | 13 | 17 | 88 | 104 | 5 | 26 | 12 | 276 | 384 | 465 | 849 | 189 | 314 | 17 | 14 | 374 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 591 | 490 | 100 | 29 | 2 | 7 | 89 | 102 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 204 | 329 | 314 | 643 | 110 | 240 | 17 | 15 | 296 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 467 | 394 | 89 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 60 | 85 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 226 | 336 | 345 | 681 | 119 | 265 | 18 | 13 | 308 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 80 | 65 | 24 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 369 | 481 | 677 | 1.158 | 308 | 417 | 16 | 18 | 489 | 161 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 341 | 287 | 70 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 48 | 66 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 244 | 356 | 348 | 705 | 105 | 307 | 19 | 14 | 322 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA | Mobile BayBears | — | 126 | 108 | 32 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 22 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 296 | 392 | 407 | 799 | 111 | 357 | 17 | 12 | 361 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | — | 171 | 148 | 41 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 47 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 277 | 363 | 459 | 823 | 182 | 374 | 27 | 12 | 358 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AA | Mobile BayBears | — | 79 | 67 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 194 | 316 | 299 | 615 | 104 | 260 | 22 | 14 | 288 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | INTL | Venados de Mazatlan | — | 148 | 120 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 29 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 258 | 395 | 392 | 786 | 133 | 318 | 20 | 18 | 359 | 129 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 241 | 203 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 55 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 241 | 353 | 355 | 708 | 113 | 312 | 23 | 14 | 322 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA | St. Paul Saints | — | 239 | 195 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 63 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 215 | 360 | 354 | 714 | 138 | 291 | 26 | 17 | 331 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 36 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 107 | 306 | 179 | 484 | 71 | 143 | 19 | 17 | 254 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 22 | ROK MLE | Orem Owlz | — | 240 | 202 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 58 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 208 | 313 | 302 | 615 | 94 | 264 | 24 | 12 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 31 | 27 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 296 | 345 | 481 | 826 | 185 | 314 | 23 | 6 | 310 | 96 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Burlington Bees | — | 478 | 420 | 97 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 109 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 231 | 313 | 317 | 629 | 86 | 293 | 23 | 9 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 629 | 559 | 132 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 58 | 140 | 5 | 26 | 12 | 236 | 314 | 403 | 716 | 166 | 275 | 22 | 9 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 591 | 518 | 90 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 61 | 119 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 174 | 263 | 263 | 526 | 89 | 205 | 20 | 10 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 467 | 412 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 42 | 113 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 175 | 259 | 260 | 519 | 85 | 216 | 24 | 9 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 80 | 69 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 319 | 405 | 565 | 970 | 246 | 365 | 20 | 12 | 406 | 161 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 341 | 301 | 61 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 84 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 203 | 288 | 276 | 564 | 73 | 275 | 25 | 10 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 126 | 114 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 254 | 320 | 351 | 671 | 96 | 304 | 21 | 7 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | Salt Lake Bees | — | 171 | 155 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 61 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 262 | 329 | 591 | 129 | 290 | 36 | 8 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 79 | 71 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 155 | 241 | 239 | 480 | 85 | 216 | 25 | 9 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 241 | 217 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 69 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 198 | 269 | 295 | 564 | 97 | 256 | 29 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA MLE | St. Paul Saints | — | 239 | 210 | 34 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 77 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 162 | 264 | 252 | 516 | 90 | 244 | 32 | 10 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 36 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100 | 250 | 167 | 417 | 67 | 117 | 25 | 11 | 189 | 14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK MLE | Orem Owlz | — | 240 | 202 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 58 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 208 | 313 | 302 | 615 | 94 | 280 | 24 | 12 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK RAW | Orem Owlz | — | 240 | 182 | 49 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 49 | 40 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 269 | 429 | 407 | 836 | 137 | 329 | 17 | 20 | 373 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 509 | 447 | 104 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 46 | 116 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 233 | 313 | 324 | 637 | 92 | 303 | 23 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 509 | 424 | 112 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 69 | 92 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 264 | 375 | 380 | 754 | 116 | 324 | 18 | 14 | 339 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 629 | 559 | 132 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 58 | 140 | 5 | 26 | 12 | 236 | 314 | 403 | 716 | 166 | 280 | 22 | 9 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ RAW | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 629 | 529 | 146 | 23 | 13 | 17 | 88 | 104 | 5 | 26 | 12 | 276 | 384 | 465 | 849 | 189 | 314 | 17 | 14 | 374 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 591 | 518 | 90 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 61 | 119 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 174 | 263 | 263 | 526 | 89 | 210 | 20 | 10 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 591 | 490 | 100 | 29 | 2 | 7 | 89 | 102 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 204 | 329 | 314 | 643 | 110 | 240 | 17 | 15 | 296 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 547 | 481 | 94 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 52 | 129 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 195 | 281 | 304 | 584 | 108 | 244 | 24 | 10 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 547 | 459 | 113 | 21 | 5 | 12 | 74 | 98 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 246 | 357 | 392 | 749 | 146 | 285 | 18 | 14 | 335 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 467 | 414 | 90 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 44 | 111 | 4 | 14 | 5 | 217 | 299 | 297 | 596 | 80 | 288 | 24 | 9 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 467 | 395 | 102 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 63 | 88 | 4 | 14 | 5 | 258 | 366 | 365 | 730 | 106 | 321 | 19 | 13 | 332 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 398 | 360 | 67 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 129 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 186 | 256 | 303 | 559 | 117 | 272 | 32 | 8 | 246 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA RAW | 3 teams | — | 398 | 335 | 85 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 57 | 93 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 254 | 365 | 403 | 768 | 149 | 329 | 23 | 14 | 345 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 241 | 217 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 69 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 198 | 269 | 295 | 564 | 97 | 271 | 29 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA RAW | Louisville Bats | — | 241 | 203 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 55 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 241 | 353 | 355 | 708 | 113 | 312 | 23 | 14 | 322 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 240 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 86 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 154 | 262 | 242 | 503 | 87 | 225 | 31 | 11 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 275 | 223 | 45 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 46 | 70 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 353 | 332 | 685 | 130 | 270 | 25 | 17 | 321 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK MLE | Orem Owlz | — | 240 | 207 | 42 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 58 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 203 | 313 | 295 | 608 | 92 | 264 | 24 | 12 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 509 | 452 | 104 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 46 | 116 | 6 | 14 | 4 | 230 | 313 | 321 | 633 | 91 | 294 | 23 | 9 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 629 | 561 | 132 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 58 | 140 | 5 | 26 | 12 | 235 | 314 | 401 | 715 | 166 | 275 | 22 | 9 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 591 | 523 | 90 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 61 | 119 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 172 | 263 | 260 | 523 | 88 | 205 | 20 | 10 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 547 | 485 | 94 | 17 | 4 | 9 | 52 | 129 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 194 | 281 | 301 | 582 | 107 | 238 | 24 | 10 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 467 | 416 | 90 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 44 | 111 | 4 | 14 | 5 | 216 | 299 | 296 | 594 | 79 | 283 | 24 | 9 | 268 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 28 | AAA MLE | 3 teams | — | 398 | 361 | 67 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 129 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 186 | 256 | 302 | 558 | 116 | 267 | 32 | 8 | 246 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 29 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 241 | 218 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 69 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 197 | 269 | 294 | 562 | 96 | 256 | 29 | 8 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 31 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 275 | 238 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 86 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 155 | 262 | 244 | 506 | 88 | 227 | 31 | 11 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3897 | 3438 | 699 | 133 | 35 | 55 | 371 | 957 | 33 | 117 | 39 | 203 | 287 | 310 | 597 | 107 | 263 | 25 | 10 | 265 | 65 | -160 | +8 | -0 | +14 | +84 | -5.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 573 | 116 | 22 | 6 | 9 | 62 | 160 | 6 | 20 | 7 | 202 | 287 | 309 | 596 | 106 | 262 | 25 | 10 | 265 | 65 | -27 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAASt. Paul Saints · 239 PAwOBA .322 → .243 (−79)K% 26.4% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.36% | ÷0.983 | ×1.200 | — | — | 32.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.32% | ÷1.024 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.962 | 10.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.962 | 1.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.45% | ÷1.035 | ×0.930 | ×0.994 | ×0.962 | 17.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷0.996 | ×0.830 | ×0.994 | ×0.962 | 4.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.52% | ÷0.900 | ×0.920 | ×0.994 | ×0.962 | 1.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.79% | ÷1.121 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.962 | 2.28% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 97, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .322 → .243; ISO .138 → .100; BABIP .291 → .244. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAWichita Wind Surge · 36 PAwOBA .249 → .189 (−59)K% 19.4% → 23.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.44% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.950 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.940 | 11.38% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.56% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.940 | 4.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.989 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.940 | 4.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.040 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.940 | 7.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.908 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.104 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 98, 2B 108, 3B 82, K 99, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 24.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .249 → .189; ISO .071 → .058; BABIP .143 → .117. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAALouisville Bats · 241 PAwOBA .314 → .240 (−74)K% 22.8% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.82% | ÷0.960 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.11% | ÷1.151 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 8.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.41% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.65% | ÷1.018 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 20.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.08% | ÷1.082 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 4.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷0.957 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 2.33% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 104, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 92, BB 130 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .314 → .240; ISO .113 → .092; BABIP .312 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAASalt Lake Bees · 171 PAwOBA .353 → .259 (−94)K% 27.5% → 35.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.49% | ÷1.003 | ×1.290 | — | — | 35.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.70% | ÷1.068 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 7.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.74% | ÷1.064 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 20.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.93% | ÷1.045 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 5.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.96% | ÷0.969 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | 3.12% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.96% | ÷0.958 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 3.20% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 113, 2B 109, 3B 94, K 101, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .353 → .259; ISO .182 → .137; BABIP .374 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAMobile BayBears · 79 PAwOBA .282 → .217 (−65)K% 21.5% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.52% | ÷1.012 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.92% | ÷1.040 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 8.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.27% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.00% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 11.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 8.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.944 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 1.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.959 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 104, 2B 103, 3B 89, K 102, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .282 → .217; ISO .104 → .088; BABIP .260 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAASalt Lake Bees · 341 PAwOBA .314 → .260 (−54)K% 19.4% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.35% | ÷1.010 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.08% | ÷0.993 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 10.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.59% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.17% | ÷0.986 | ×0.900 | ×1.018 | ×1.003 | 20.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.79% | ÷1.009 | ×0.810 | ×1.018 | ×1.003 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.36% | ÷1.093 | ×0.810 | ×1.018 | ×1.003 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.36% | ÷0.989 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 1.07% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 102, 3B 119, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .314 → .260; ISO .105 → .083; BABIP .307 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAMobile BayBears · 126 PAwOBA .350 → .288 (−62)K% 17.5% → 21.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.46% | ÷0.998 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.986 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 7.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 1.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.91% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×0.998 | ×0.978 | 24.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷1.204 | ×0.910 | ×0.998 | ×0.978 | 5.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.930 | ×0.880 | ×0.998 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.33% | ÷0.896 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.03% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 104, 2B 141, 3B 86, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .350 → .288; ISO .111 → .092; BABIP .357 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAASalt Lake Bees · 467 PAwOBA .304 → .237 (−68)K% 18.2% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.20% | ÷0.969 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.85% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 9.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.07% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.74% | ÷1.033 | ×0.900 | ×0.951 | ×1.018 | 16.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.50% | ÷1.020 | ×0.810 | ×0.951 | ×1.018 | 4.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.97% | ÷1.137 | ×0.810 | ×0.951 | ×1.018 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.59% | ÷1.035 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 1.99% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 107, 2B 104, 3B 127, K 94, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.
Result: wOBA .304 → .237; ISO .119 → .090; BABIP .265 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .