Juan Ciriaco
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 25 | AANew Britain R… | 309 | .267/.281/.318 | 0 | 18 | 53 | — | .256/.268/.303 |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA/AACOL | 253 | .258/.276/.338 | 3 | 10 | 54 | — | .253/.265/.315 |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA/AACOL | 118 | .209/.230/.282 | 2 | 5 | 16 | — | .189/.204/.234 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 119 | 99 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 303 | 405 | 303 | 708 | 395 | 19 | 13 | 328 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2010 | 20 | ROK | DSL Rockies | — | 212 | 176 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 25 | 7 | 34 | 11 | 233 | 335 | 273 | 608 | 40 | 266 | 12 | 9 | 277 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK | Casper Ghosts | — | 66 | 63 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 254 | 266 | 286 | 551 | 32 | 340 | 26 | 2 | 241 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 241 | 220 | 59 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 36 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 268 | 306 | 323 | 629 | 55 | 317 | 15 | 5 | 275 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 400 | 358 | 100 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 62 | 1 | 50 | 15 | 279 | 321 | 355 | 676 | 75 | 331 | 16 | 5 | 290 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 302 | 283 | 80 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 55 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 283 | 310 | 364 | 673 | 81 | 343 | 18 | 3 | 294 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA | New Britain Rock Cats | — | 309 | 296 | 79 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 42 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 267 | 281 | 318 | 599 | 51 | 310 | 14 | 2 | 263 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 22 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 91 | 56 | 18 | 0 | 41 | -91 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 26 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 231 | 218 | 61 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 280 | 299 | 367 | 666 | 87 | 304 | 11 | 2 | 289 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 19 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 278 | 278 | 278 | 556 | 357 | 21 | 0 | 238 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 27 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 99 | 92 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 196 | 221 | 283 | 504 | 87 | 211 | 15 | 3 | 217 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 119 | 104 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 28 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 212 | 293 | 212 | 505 | 280 | 24 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2010 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 212 | 182 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 31 | 7 | 34 | 11 | 170 | 256 | 198 | 454 | 27 | 184 | 15 | 7 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 66 | 63 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 190 | 203 | 222 | 425 | 32 | 286 | 36 | 2 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 241 | 224 | 47 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 52 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 210 | 237 | 246 | 483 | 36 | 259 | 22 | 3 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 400 | 366 | 90 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 88 | 1 | 50 | 15 | 246 | 274 | 292 | 566 | 46 | 299 | 22 | 3 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 302 | 285 | 70 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 76 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 246 | 269 | 305 | 574 | 60 | 312 | 25 | 2 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | New Britain Rock Cats | — | 309 | 297 | 76 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 256 | 268 | 303 | 571 | 47 | 303 | 17 | 1 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 22 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 91 | 49 | 23 | 0 | 33 | -91 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 231 | 220 | 60 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 273 | 286 | 341 | 627 | 68 | 297 | 13 | 1 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 19 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 222 | 222 | 222 | 444 | 316 | 26 | 0 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 27 | AA MLE | Hartford Yard Goats | — | 99 | 93 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 183 | 200 | 237 | 437 | 54 | 200 | 17 | 2 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 119 | 104 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 28 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 212 | 293 | 212 | 505 | 289 | 24 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2009 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 119 | 99 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 303 | 405 | 303 | 708 | 395 | 19 | 13 | 328 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2010 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 212 | 182 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 31 | 7 | 34 | 11 | 170 | 256 | 198 | 454 | 27 | 201 | 15 | 7 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | ROK RAW | DSL Rockies | — | 212 | 176 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 25 | 7 | 34 | 11 | 233 | 335 | 273 | 608 | 40 | 266 | 12 | 9 | 277 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 66 | 63 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 190 | 203 | 222 | 425 | 32 | 300 | 36 | 2 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK RAW | Casper Ghosts | — | 66 | 63 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 254 | 266 | 286 | 551 | 32 | 340 | 26 | 2 | 241 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 241 | 224 | 47 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 52 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 210 | 237 | 246 | 483 | 36 | 270 | 22 | 3 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK RAW | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 241 | 220 | 59 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 36 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 268 | 306 | 323 | 629 | 55 | 317 | 15 | 5 | 275 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 400 | 366 | 90 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 88 | 1 | 50 | 15 | 246 | 274 | 292 | 566 | 46 | 319 | 22 | 3 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 400 | 358 | 100 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 62 | 1 | 50 | 15 | 279 | 321 | 355 | 676 | 75 | 331 | 16 | 5 | 290 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 302 | 285 | 70 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 76 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 246 | 269 | 305 | 574 | 60 | 327 | 25 | 2 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ RAW | Modesto Nuts | — | 302 | 283 | 80 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 55 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 283 | 310 | 364 | 673 | 81 | 343 | 18 | 3 | 294 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | New Britain Rock Cats | — | 309 | 297 | 76 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 256 | 268 | 303 | 571 | 47 | 310 | 17 | 1 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA RAW | New Britain Rock Cats | — | 309 | 296 | 79 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 42 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 267 | 281 | 318 | 599 | 51 | 310 | 14 | 2 | 263 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 253 | 242 | 61 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 252 | 264 | 314 | 578 | 62 | 286 | 14 | 1 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 253 | 240 | 62 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 258 | 276 | 338 | 614 | 79 | 282 | 11 | 2 | 267 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 118 | 111 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 189 | 204 | 234 | 438 | 45 | 227 | 19 | 2 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 118 | 110 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 209 | 230 | 282 | 512 | 73 | 233 | 16 | 3 | 220 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 119 | 106 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 28 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 208 | 293 | 208 | 501 | 280 | 24 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2010 | 20 | ROK MLE | DSL Rockies | — | 212 | 189 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 31 | 7 | 34 | 11 | 164 | 256 | 190 | 447 | 26 | 184 | 15 | 7 | 199 | 21 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 66 | 65 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 185 | 203 | 215 | 419 | 31 | 286 | 36 | 2 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | ROK MLE | Grand Junction Rockies | — | 241 | 231 | 47 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 52 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 203 | 237 | 238 | 475 | 35 | 259 | 22 | 3 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 400 | 383 | 90 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 88 | 1 | 50 | 15 | 235 | 274 | 279 | 553 | 44 | 299 | 22 | 3 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 302 | 290 | 70 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 76 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 241 | 269 | 300 | 569 | 59 | 312 | 25 | 2 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AA MLE | New Britain Rock Cats | — | 309 | 301 | 76 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 53 | 1 | 18 | 10 | 252 | 268 | 299 | 567 | 47 | 303 | 17 | 1 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 253 | 247 | 61 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 247 | 264 | 308 | 572 | 61 | 275 | 14 | 1 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 118 | 115 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 183 | 204 | 226 | 430 | 43 | 219 | 19 | 2 | 192 | 16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2020 | 1874 | 430 | 38 | 15 | 5 | 60 | 410 | 16 | 171 | 60 | 229 | 259 | 274 | 533 | 44 | 289 | 20 | 3 | 229 | 41 | -141 | +10 | +0 | +7 | +44 | -8.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 603 | 139 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 132 | 5 | 55 | 19 | 231 | 260 | 277 | 537 | 46 | 289 | 20 | 3 | 229 | 41 | -45 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAHartford Yard Goats · 99 PAwOBA .213 → .191 (−23)K% 15.2% → 17.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.15% | ÷1.051 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.03% | ÷1.017 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 2.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.18% | ÷1.026 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 17.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.60% | ÷1.014 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 2.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.60% | ÷1.183 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.67% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 110, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .213 → .191; ISO .087 → .063; BABIP .211 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 19 PAwOBA .232 → .199 (−32)K% 21.1% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷0.956 | ×1.290 | — | — | 28.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 35.71% | ÷1.019 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.003 | 31.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.202 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 104, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .232 → .199; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .357 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAHartford Yard Goats · 231 PAwOBA .282 → .269 (−13)K% 10.8% → 12.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.82% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.16% | ÷1.007 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 1.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.43% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.39% | ÷0.981 | ×0.970 | ×1.026 | ×0.988 | 25.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.15% | ÷1.021 | ×0.860 | ×1.026 | ×0.988 | 3.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.026 | ×0.988 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.094 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.09% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 96, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 104, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .282 → .269; ISO .087 → .072; BABIP .304 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 22 PAwOBA .040 → .033 (−7)K% 18.2% → 24.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.948 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.083 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.032 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.018 | 4.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.050 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.202 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 106, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .040 → .033; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .056 → .049. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AANew Britain Rock Cats · 309 PAwOBA .256 → .246 (−10)K% 13.6% → 17.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.59% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.62% | ÷0.935 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 1.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.32% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.17% | ÷1.024 | ×0.970 | ×1.033 | ×0.998 | 26.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.97% | ÷1.016 | ×0.860 | ×1.033 | ×0.998 | 1.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.97% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.033 | ×0.998 | 2.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.133 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 95, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .256 → .246; ISO .051 → .051; BABIP .310 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Modesto Nuts · 302 PAwOBA .289 → .244 (−45)K% 18.2% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.21% | ÷0.977 | ×1.340 | — | — | 24.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.65% | ÷0.947 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 1.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.99% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.51% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 26.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.51% | ÷1.047 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 2.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 1.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.44% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 0.39% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 95, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .289 → .244; ISO .081 → .059; BABIP .343 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAsheville Tourists · 400 PAwOBA .284 → .241 (−43)K% 15.5% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.50% | ÷0.940 | ×1.340 | — | — | 22.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.25% | ÷1.043 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 3.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.25% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 0.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.35% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 25.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.42% | ÷1.305 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 4.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.990 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.331 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 0.41% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 98, 2B 161, 3B 80, K 88, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .284 → .241; ISO .075 → .051; BABIP .331 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ROKGrand Junction Rockies · 241 PAwOBA .270 → .209 (−61)K% 14.9% → 21.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.94% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 21.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.975 | 2.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.41% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.040 | ×0.975 | 22.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.040 | ×0.975 | 2.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.040 | ×0.975 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .270 → .209; ISO .055 → .039; BABIP .317 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).