Bryson Smith
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 25 | AA/A+/ROK3 orgs | 195 | .224/.309/.271 | 1 | 1 | 43 | — | .211/.277/.257 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 184 | .274/.333/.393 | 3 | 3 | 76 | — | .256/.301/.354 |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 187 | .181/.257/.211 | 0 | 1 | 16 | — | .176/.235/.206 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 115 | 95 | 35 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 368 | 474 | 611 | 1.084 | 242 | 395 | 13 | 9 | 470 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 166 | 153 | 47 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 307 | 342 | 425 | 766 | 118 | 346 | 14 | 2 | 331 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 238 | 211 | 66 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 33 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 313 | 380 | 431 | 812 | 118 | 347 | 14 | 5 | 360 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 238 | 207 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 275 | 364 | 406 | 770 | 130 | 306 | 14 | 8 | 347 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 147 | 132 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 227 | 292 | 273 | 564 | 45 | 254 | 12 | 5 | 258 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 28 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 238 | 429 | 333 | 762 | 95 | 250 | 4 | 21 | 364 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | ROK | AZL Reds | — | 20 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 263 | 176 | 440 | 273 | 35 | 5 | 207 | -19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 82 | 73 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 260 | 333 | 301 | 635 | 41 | 345 | 22 | 9 | 292 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 102 | 95 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 284 | 333 | 463 | 796 | 179 | 320 | 17 | 4 | 352 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 137 | 121 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 174 | 254 | 190 | 444 | 17 | 233 | 23 | 7 | 212 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 50 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 265 | 267 | 532 | 67 | 225 | 12 | 6 | 241 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 115 | 99 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 283 | 377 | 455 | 832 | 172 | 308 | 19 | 5 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 166 | 154 | 48 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 312 | 342 | 429 | 770 | 117 | 348 | 16 | 1 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 238 | 215 | 61 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 44 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 284 | 342 | 381 | 723 | 98 | 318 | 18 | 4 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 238 | 214 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 257 | 326 | 369 | 695 | 112 | 286 | 16 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 147 | 135 | 30 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 222 | 271 | 267 | 537 | 44 | 246 | 15 | 3 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 28 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 217 | 357 | 304 | 661 | 87 | 207 | 4 | 14 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 20 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 211 | 118 | 328 | 207 | 50 | 5 | 140 | -19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 82 | 75 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 253 | 309 | 293 | 602 | 40 | 334 | 27 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 102 | 97 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 258 | 294 | 402 | 696 | 144 | 308 | 21 | 2 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 137 | 124 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 231 | 185 | 417 | 16 | 231 | 28 | 4 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 50 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 245 | 261 | 506 | 65 | 201 | 14 | 4 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 115 | 99 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 283 | 377 | 455 | 832 | 172 | 324 | 19 | 5 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 115 | 95 | 35 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 368 | 474 | 611 | 1.084 | 242 | 395 | 13 | 9 | 470 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 404 | 369 | 107 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 71 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 290 | 337 | 382 | 719 | 92 | 342 | 18 | 3 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 404 | 364 | 113 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 56 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 310 | 365 | 429 | 793 | 118 | 346 | 14 | 4 | 348 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 238 | 214 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 257 | 326 | 369 | 695 | 112 | 295 | 16 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 238 | 207 | 57 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 33 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 275 | 364 | 406 | 770 | 130 | 306 | 14 | 8 | 347 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 195 | 175 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 211 | 277 | 257 | 535 | 46 | 252 | 17 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 195 | 170 | 38 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 224 | 309 | 271 | 579 | 47 | 255 | 13 | 8 | 268 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 172 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 250 | 295 | 343 | 638 | 93 | 323 | 23 | 4 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 184 | 168 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 35 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 274 | 333 | 393 | 726 | 119 | 331 | 19 | 6 | 326 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 187 | 170 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 45 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 171 | 230 | 194 | 424 | 24 | 230 | 24 | 4 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 187 | 166 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 37 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 181 | 257 | 211 | 468 | 30 | 231 | 20 | 6 | 219 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 115 | 99 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 283 | 377 | 455 | 832 | 172 | 308 | 19 | 5 | 345 | 120 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 404 | 375 | 107 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 71 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 285 | 337 | 376 | 713 | 91 | 330 | 18 | 3 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 238 | 214 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 257 | 326 | 369 | 695 | 112 | 286 | 16 | 5 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 195 | 177 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 209 | 277 | 254 | 532 | 45 | 236 | 17 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 184 | 171 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 251 | 295 | 345 | 640 | 94 | 320 | 23 | 4 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 187 | 172 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 45 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 230 | 192 | 421 | 23 | 223 | 24 | 4 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1323 | 1199 | 299 | 40 | 9 | 15 | 55 | 252 | 48 | 22 | 14 | 249 | 309 | 335 | 644 | 86 | 301 | 19 | 4 | 280 | 75 | -39 | -1 | +0 | +5 | +29 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 146 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 124 | 24 | 11 | 7 | 248 | 308 | 331 | 639 | 83 | 300 | 19 | 4 | 280 | 75 | -19 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAALouisville Bats · 137 PAwOBA .207 → .188 (−18)K% 22.6% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.63% | ÷0.984 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.57% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 4.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.92% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 2.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.11% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | ×1.042 | ×0.992 | 21.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | ×1.042 | ×0.992 | 1.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.042 | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.882 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 90, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .207 → .188; ISO .017 → .013; BABIP .233 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 50 PAwOBA .240 → .206 (−34)K% 12.0% → 14.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.00% | ÷1.042 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.00% | ÷1.075 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 3.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 1.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.95% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×0.968 | 16.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.081 | ×0.910 | ×1.009 | ×0.968 | 2.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷0.981 | ×0.880 | ×1.009 | ×0.968 | 2.25% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.924 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 96, K 108, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .240 → .206; ISO .067 → .059; BABIP .225 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 102 PAwOBA .343 → .300 (−43)K% 16.7% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.979 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.92% | ÷1.087 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 2.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 2.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.79% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×1.049 | ×0.978 | 21.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.979 | ×0.910 | ×1.049 | ×0.978 | 7.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷0.903 | ×0.880 | ×1.049 | ×0.978 | 1.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.90% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 96, 3B 81, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.049.
Result: wOBA .343 → .300; ISO .179 → .149; BABIP .320 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAALouisville Bats · 82 PAwOBA .285 → .255 (−29)K% 22.0% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.95% | ÷0.991 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.54% | ÷1.023 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 5.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.22% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.15% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.09% | ÷0.999 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 28.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.45% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 4.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.922 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.009 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .285 → .255; ISO .041 → .037; BABIP .345 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 147 PAwOBA .254 → .233 (−21)K% 12.2% → 14.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.24% | ÷1.014 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.44% | ÷1.051 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 3.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.72% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 2.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.81% | ÷0.971 | ×0.920 | ×1.040 | ×0.988 | 22.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | ×1.040 | ×0.988 | 2.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.040 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.88% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.71% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 94, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.
Result: wOBA .254 → .233; ISO .045 → .041; BABIP .254 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 28 PAwOBA .357 → .289 (−68)K% 3.6% → 5.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 3.57% | ÷0.961 | ×1.340 | — | — | 4.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.43% | ÷0.944 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 15.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.57% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 2.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷1.031 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.968 | 12.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.968 | 7.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.421 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 92, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .357 → .289; ISO .095 → .081; BABIP .250 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKAZL Reds · 20 PAwOBA .213 → .140 (−74)K% 35.0% → 50.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 50.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 2.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 3.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 23.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .213 → .140; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .273 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 238 PAwOBA .338 → .300 (−37)K% 13.9% → 16.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.87% | ÷1.050 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.98% | ÷0.966 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 5.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.78% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 3.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.56% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 22.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.75% | ÷1.019 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 5.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.57% | ÷1.109 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.87% | ÷1.048 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.19% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 104, 2B 104, 3B 122, K 110, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .338 → .300; ISO .130 → .111; BABIP .306 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).