Dustin Garneau

PosC

B/TR/R

Born1987-08-13

Age (2027)39

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2022

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2020	32	MLBHOU	46	.158/.273/.289	1	0	56	-0.3
2021	33	AAACOL	102	.198/.317/.419	5	0	28	—	.132/.218/.264
2021	33	MLBDET	68	.210/.258/.581	6	0	128	0.9
2022	34	AAA/A+DET	208	.188/.306/.358	7	1	32	—	.131/.228/.228
2023	35	No MLB games played
2024	36	No MLB games played
2025	37	No MLB games played
2026	38	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

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Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2009	21	ROK	Casper Ghosts	—	89	72	18	4	1	1	13	14	4	1	0	250	393	375	768	125	298	16	15	356	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	44	42	13	2	2	1	2	9	0	0	1	310	341	524	865	214	375	20	5	375	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	A	Asheville Tourists	—	417	341	87	29	4	17	58	70	7	7	7	255	370	513	883	258	270	17	14	379	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	A+	Modesto Nuts	—	349	300	73	18	3	6	40	41	2	2	3	243	335	383	719	140	261	12	11	319	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	372	326	77	17	1	13	25	57	13	4	2	236	316	414	730	178	246	15	7	320	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	56	48	8	2	0	4	7	9	0	0	1	167	273	458	731	292	114	16	12	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	166	148	32	9	2	5	14	21	3	2	1	216	297	405	702	189	221	13	8	311	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AA	Tulsa Drillers	—	135	115	31	7	0	2	14	19	4	2	3	270	368	383	751	113	302	14	10	339	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	76	70	11	3	0	2	6	14	0	0	0	157	224	286	509	129	167	18	8	232	24	-7	+0	-4	+8	+2	-0.2
2015	27	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	340	303	83	16	0	15	28	44	2	2	1	274	339	475	815	201	274	13	8	352	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	16	13	0	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	0		188		188			31	12	133	-24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	75	68	16	6	0	1	6	22	0	0	0	235	297	368	665	132	326	29	8	295	80	-2	+0	-0	+5	+2	0.5
2016	28	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	211	185	54	11	0	15	16	43	7	2	0	292	370	595	965	303	302	20	8	412	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	126	112	21	8	0	2	12	36	1	0	0	188	272	312	585	125	257	29	10	266	67	-5	+0	+3	+5	+3	0.6
2017	29	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	144	128	36	9	2	10	13	22	1	0	1	281	352	617	969	336	265	15	9	410	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	240	211	50	12	0	9	21	48	4	0	2	237	316	422	738	185	261	20	9	325	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	101	86	21	5	0	3	10	22	4	0	0	244	347	407	754	163	295	22	10	340	119	+2	+0	+4	+4	+2	1.3
2019	31	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	130	109	27	10	1	7	14	37	5	0	0	248	357	550	907	303	303	28	11	389	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	32	MLB	Houston Astros	—	46	38	6	0	1	1	6	15	0	0	0	158	273	289	562	132	227	33	13	250	56	-2	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.3
2021	33	MLB	Detroit Tigers	—	68	62	13	5	0	6	3	18	1	0	0	210	258	581	838	371	175	26	4	346	128	+2	+0	+2	+3	+1	0.9
2021	33	AAA	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	102	86	17	4	0	5	13	29	2	0	0	198	317	419	735	221	226	28	13	327	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	191	164	32	9	0	7	17	52	8	1	0	195	302	378	680	183	234	27	9	305	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	A+	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	17	12	1	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	83	353	83	436		100	12	24	261	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	492	436	88	27	1	15	43	127	6	0	0	202	282	372	653	170	246	26	9	290	82	-10	+0	+2	+26	+11	2.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2009	21	ROK MLE	Casper Ghosts	—	89	77	15	3	1	1	8	20	4	1	0	195	303	299	602	104	227	22	9	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	44	43	11	2	1	1	1	12	0	0	1	256	273	419	691	163	320	27	2	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	417	369	64	18	4	10	35	100	7	7	7	173	258	325	583	152	196	24	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	349	313	63	15	2	6	28	54	2	2	3	201	271	319	591	118	216	15	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	372	333	63	15	1	8	18	70	13	4	2	189	258	312	571	123	204	19	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA MLE	Colorado Springs Sky Sox	—	166	153	25	7	1	4	9	29	3	2	1	163	224	301	525	137	177	17	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	—	135	120	27	5	0	2	9	23	4	2	3	225	301	317	617	92	249	17	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	76	72	11	3	0	2	4	14	0	0	0	153	197	278	475	125	167	18	5	204	24	-7	+0	-4	+8	+2	-0.2
2015	27	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	340	314	68	12	0	11	17	59	2	2	1	217	261	360	621	143	222	17	5	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	75	68	16	6	0	1	6	22	0	0	0	235	297	368	665	132	326	29	8	286	80	-2	+0	-0	+5	+2	0.5
2016	28	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	211	191	39	8	0	9	10	58	7	2	0	204	269	387	657	183	228	27	5	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	126	112	21	8	0	2	12	36	1	0	0	188	272	312	585	125	257	29	10	267	67	-5	+0	+3	+5	+3	0.6
2017	29	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	144	132	25	6	1	6	9	30	1	0	1	189	246	386	633	197	196	21	6	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	240	220	39	9	0	6	13	58	4	0	2	177	236	300	536	123	202	24	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	101	87	21	5	0	3	10	22	4	0	0	241	347	402	749	161	295	22	10	345	119	+2	+0	+4	+4	+2	1.3
2019	31	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	130	114	19	7	1	4	10	48	5	0	0	167	264	351	614	184	227	37	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	32	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	46	38	6	0	1	1	6	15	0	0	0	158	273	289	562	132	227	33	13	250	56	-2	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.3
2021	33	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	—	68	62	13	5	0	6	3	18	1	0	0	210	258	581	838	371	175	26	4	357	128	+2	+0	+2	+3	+1	0.9
2021	33	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	—	102	91	12	3	0	3	8	36	2	0	0	132	218	264	482	132	163	35	8	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	191	170	23	6	0	4	11	62	8	1	0	135	222	241	463	106	180	32	6	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	A+ MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	—	17	13	1	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	77	294	77	371		84	18	18	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	ROK MLE	Casper Ghosts	—	89	77	15	3	1	1	8	20	4	1	0	195	303	299	602	104	250	22	9	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	ROK RAW	Casper Ghosts	—	89	72	18	4	1	1	13	14	4	1	0	250	393	375	768	125	298	16	15	356	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	44	43	11	2	1	1	1	12	0	0	1	256	273	419	691	163	333	27	2	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+ RAW	Modesto Nuts	—	44	42	13	2	2	1	2	9	0	0	1	310	341	524	865	214	375	20	5	375	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	417	369	64	18	4	10	35	100	7	7	7	173	258	325	583	152	205	24	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	—	417	341	87	29	4	17	58	70	7	7	7	255	370	513	883	258	270	17	14	379	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	349	313	63	15	2	6	28	54	2	2	3	201	271	319	591	118	222	15	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	A+ RAW	Modesto Nuts	—	349	300	73	18	3	6	40	41	2	2	3	243	335	383	719	140	261	12	11	319	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	428	385	73	17	1	10	21	80	13	4	3	190	255	317	572	127	211	19	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AA RAW	2 teams	—	428	374	85	19	1	17	32	66	13	4	3	227	310	420	730	193	231	15	7	319	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	301	272	52	12	1	6	19	52	7	4	4	191	262	309	571	118	213	17	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	301	263	63	16	2	7	28	40	7	4	4	240	329	395	724	156	257	13	9	324	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	432	400	81	15	0	13	22	76	3	2	1	203	249	338	587	135	216	18	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	432	386	94	19	0	17	36	63	3	2	1	244	313	425	738	181	248	15	8	323	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	286	259	53	13	0	10	16	80	7	2	0	205	270	371	640	166	250	28	6	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	286	253	70	17	0	16	22	65	7	2	0	277	351	534	885	257	309	23	8	381	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	270	244	46	14	1	8	21	66	2	0	1	189	258	352	611	164	221	24	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	270	240	57	17	2	12	25	58	2	0	1	237	315	475	790	237	262	21	9	342	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	240	220	39	9	0	6	13	58	4	0	2	177	236	300	536	123	208	24	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	—	240	211	50	12	0	9	21	48	4	0	2	237	316	422	738	185	261	20	9	325	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	231	201	41	12	1	8	20	70	9	0	0	204	304	393	697	189	266	30	9	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	231	195	48	15	1	10	24	59	9	0	0	246	352	487	839	241	299	26	10	368	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	32	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	46	38	6	0	1	1	6	15	0	0	0	158	273	289	562	132	227	33	13	250	56	-2	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.3
2020	32	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	—	46	38	6	0	1	1	6	15	0	0	0	158	273	289	562	132	227	33	13	250	56	-2	+0	-2	+1	+1	-0.3
2021	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	170	153	25	8	0	9	11	54	3	0	0	163	234	392	626	229	172	32	6	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	170	148	30	9	0	11	16	47	3	0	0	203	293	486	780	284	204	28	9	334	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	208	183	24	6	0	4	14	65	9	1	0	131	228	230	458	98	172	31	7	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	208	176	33	9	0	7	21	54	9	1	0	188	306	358	664	170	222	26	10	302	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	ROK MLE	Casper Ghosts	—	89	77	15	3	1	1	8	20	4	1	0	195	303	299	602	104	227	22	9	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	44	43	11	2	1	1	1	12	0	0	1	256	273	419	691	163	320	27	2	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	417	372	64	18	4	10	35	100	7	7	7	172	258	323	580	151	196	24	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	A+ MLE	Modesto Nuts	—	349	316	63	15	2	6	28	54	2	2	3	199	271	316	588	117	216	15	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AA MLE	2 teams	—	428	391	73	17	1	10	21	80	13	4	3	187	255	312	567	125	204	19	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	301	272	52	12	1	6	19	52	7	4	4	191	262	309	571	118	209	17	6	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	432	404	81	15	0	13	22	76	3	2	1	200	249	334	584	134	212	18	5	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	286	261	53	13	0	10	16	80	7	2	0	203	270	368	637	165	254	28	6	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	270	245	46	14	1	8	21	66	2	0	1	188	258	351	609	163	224	24	8	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	240	221	39	9	0	6	13	58	4	0	2	176	236	299	535	122	202	24	5	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	231	200	41	12	1	8	20	70	9	0	0	205	304	395	699	190	257	30	9	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	32	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	—	46	40	6	0	1	1	6	15	0	0	0	150	273	275	548	125	227	33	13	250	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	170	154	25	8	0	9	11	54	3	0	0	162	234	390	623	227	168	32	6	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	208	183	24	6	0	4	14	65	9	1	0	131	228	230	458	98	172	31	7	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	492	436	88	27	1	15	43	127	6	0	0	202	282	372	653	170	246	26	9	290	61	-10	+0	+2	+26	+11	2.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	116	36	1	20	57	168	8	0	0	201	282	372	653	170	245	26	9	290	61	-14	+0	+3	+34	+14	3.8
Career	—	MLE		—	3511	3157	593	144	13	93	235	802	70	23	22	188	259	330	589	142	218	23	7	258	61	-10	+0	+2	+26	+11	2.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	110	27	2	17	44	148	13	4	4	188	261	329	589	140	219	23	7	258	61	-14	+0	+3	+34	+14	3.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 191 PAwOBA .301 → .219 (−82)K% 27.2% → 32.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.23%	÷1.008	×1.200	—	—	32.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.90%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×0.940	5.99%
HBP% /PA	4.19%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	3.70%
Singles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.015	×0.930	×0.950	×0.940	11.69%
Doubles /BIP	8.04%	÷1.015	×0.830	×0.950	×0.940	5.87%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×0.940	4.01%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .301 → .219; ISO .183 → .121; BABIP .234 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+West Michigan Whitecaps · 17 PAwOBA .257 → .185 (−72)K% 11.8% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.76%	÷0.956	×1.270	—	—	15.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	23.53%	÷1.024	×0.710	—	×0.940	15.33%
HBP% /PA	5.88%	—	×0.790	—	×0.940	4.37%
Singles /BIP	10.00%	÷1.031	×0.920	—	×0.940	8.39%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷0.876	×0.810	—	×0.940	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.850	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.847	×0.800	—	×0.940	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 106, 2B 75, 3B 130, K 91, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (12.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .257 → .185; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .100 → .084. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 102 PAwOBA .321 → .210 (−111)K% 28.4% → 35.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.43%	÷0.958	×1.200	—	—	35.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.75%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	×0.940	8.01%
HBP% /PA	1.96%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.73%
Singles /BIP	14.04%	÷1.110	×0.930	×0.950	×0.940	10.50%
Doubles /BIP	7.02%	÷0.988	×0.830	×0.950	×0.940	5.26%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×0.950	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.77%	÷1.172	×0.700	—	×0.940	4.92%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 122, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 92, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .321 → .210; ISO .221 → .130; BABIP .226 → .163. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 130 PAwOBA .382 → .269 (−113)K% 28.5% → 37.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.46%	÷0.990	×1.290	—	—	37.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.77%	÷0.985	×0.710	—	×0.952	7.39%
HBP% /PA	3.85%	—	×0.980	—	×0.952	3.59%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.018	×0.900	×0.950	×0.952	9.99%
Doubles /BIP	13.89%	÷0.951	×0.810	×0.950	×0.952	10.70%
Triples /BIP	1.39%	÷1.102	×0.810	×0.950	×0.952	0.92%
Home runs /BIP	9.72%	÷1.119	×0.780	—	×0.952	6.45%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 120, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .382 → .269; ISO .303 → .198; BABIP .303 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAACharlotte Knights · 240 PAwOBA .320 → .232 (−88)K% 20.0% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷0.986	×1.200	—	—	24.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.75%	÷1.030	×0.690	—	×0.962	5.64%
HBP% /PA	1.67%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	1.51%
Singles /BIP	17.79%	÷1.030	×0.930	×0.950	×0.962	14.68%
Doubles /BIP	7.36%	÷1.077	×0.830	×0.950	×0.962	5.19%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.962	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.52%	÷1.319	×0.840	—	×0.962	3.38%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .320 → .232; ISO .185 → .120; BABIP .261 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 144 PAwOBA .403 → .281 (−123)K% 15.3% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.28%	÷0.956	×1.290	—	—	20.61%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.03%	÷0.996	×0.710	—	×0.972	6.25%
HBP% /PA	0.69%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	0.66%
Singles /BIP	14.15%	÷1.019	×0.900	×0.950	×0.972	11.54%
Doubles /BIP	8.49%	÷1.045	×0.810	×0.950	×0.972	6.08%
Triples /BIP	1.89%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×0.972	1.23%
Home runs /BIP	9.43%	÷1.202	×0.780	—	×0.972	5.95%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 104, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .403 → .281; ISO .336 → .215; BABIP .265 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 211 PAwOBA .404 → .281 (−123)K% 20.4% → 27.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.38%	÷0.948	×1.290	—	—	27.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.58%	÷1.083	×0.710	—	×0.982	4.88%
HBP% /PA	3.32%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	3.19%
Singles /BIP	19.72%	÷1.032	×0.900	×0.950	×0.982	16.05%
Doubles /BIP	7.75%	÷1.050	×0.810	×0.950	×0.982	5.57%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.56%	÷1.202	×0.780	—	×0.982	6.73%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 106, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .404 → .281; ISO .303 → .189; BABIP .302 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 340 PAwOBA .345 → .266 (−79)K% 12.9% → 17.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.94%	÷0.960	×1.290	—	—	17.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.65%	÷1.056	×0.710	—	×0.992	5.10%
HBP% /PA	0.59%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.57%
Singles /BIP	20.08%	÷1.010	×0.900	×0.969	×0.992	17.21%
Doubles /BIP	6.18%	÷1.075	×0.810	×0.969	×0.992	4.47%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.933	×0.810	×0.969	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.79%	÷1.105	×0.780	—	×0.992	4.06%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 102, 2B 115, 3B 87, K 92, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.

Result: wOBA .345 → .266; ISO .201 → .144; BABIP .274 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).