Tyler Bortnick
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 28 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 405 | .286/.370/.363 | 2 | 23 | 92 | — | .252/.312/.330 |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA/AA/A+DET | 287 | .277/.351/.415 | 6 | 7 | 73 | — | .239/.291/.354 |
| 2017 | 30 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 39 | .147/.237/.147 | 0 | 1 | -8 | — | .147/.237/.147 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 23 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 41 | 34 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 206 | 308 | 382 | 690 | 176 | 250 | 24 | 12 | 296 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 487 | 406 | 123 | 32 | 2 | 8 | 63 | 67 | 11 | 39 | 14 | 303 | 409 | 451 | 859 | 148 | 344 | 14 | 13 | 383 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 588 | 474 | 145 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 79 | 67 | 25 | 43 | 4 | 306 | 431 | 432 | 863 | 127 | 346 | 11 | 13 | 387 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | INTL | Surprise Saguaros | — | 51 | 45 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 267 | 353 | 400 | 753 | 133 | 306 | 16 | 10 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 151 | 132 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 26 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 212 | 293 | 311 | 603 | 98 | 250 | 17 | 9 | 271 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AA | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 404 | 348 | 88 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 46 | 61 | 7 | 23 | 3 | 253 | 352 | 385 | 737 | 132 | 297 | 15 | 11 | 332 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | INTL | Salt River Rafters | — | 57 | 45 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 267 | 411 | 356 | 766 | 89 | 333 | 18 | 14 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 298 | 251 | 73 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 40 | 54 | 5 | 19 | 2 | 291 | 399 | 402 | 801 | 112 | 359 | 18 | 13 | 363 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 98 | 85 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 224 | 312 | 271 | 583 | 47 | 297 | 21 | 10 | 269 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | INTL | Sydney Blue Sox | — | 191 | 164 | 39 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 238 | 342 | 348 | 690 | 110 | 277 | 16 | 12 | 317 | 101 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 252 | 222 | 61 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 38 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 275 | 356 | 360 | 716 | 86 | 324 | 15 | 10 | 326 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | INTL | Sydney Blue Sox | — | 153 | 131 | 40 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 305 | 393 | 366 | 760 | 61 | 345 | 12 | 10 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 53 | 45 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 222 | 327 | 356 | 682 | 133 | 265 | 19 | 13 | 306 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 139 | 122 | 34 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 24 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 279 | 353 | 451 | 804 | 172 | 312 | 17 | 9 | 350 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 29 | A+ | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 95 | 86 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 302 | 362 | 395 | 757 | 93 | 352 | 15 | 7 | 339 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 30 | AAA | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 22 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 238 | 158 | 396 | 176 | 14 | 5 | 189 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 30 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 235 | 133 | 369 | 200 | 29 | 6 | 191 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 23 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 41 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 171 | 256 | 314 | 571 | 143 | 225 | 37 | 10 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 487 | 429 | 109 | 25 | 2 | 7 | 42 | 91 | 11 | 39 | 14 | 254 | 336 | 371 | 707 | 117 | 299 | 19 | 9 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | A+ MLE | Charlotte Stone Crabs | — | 588 | 498 | 141 | 34 | 6 | 3 | 55 | 88 | 25 | 43 | 4 | 283 | 382 | 394 | 776 | 110 | 328 | 15 | 9 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 151 | 136 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 184 | 245 | 265 | 510 | 81 | 223 | 23 | 7 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AA MLE | Montgomery Biscuits | — | 404 | 362 | 81 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 74 | 7 | 23 | 3 | 224 | 299 | 334 | 634 | 110 | 271 | 18 | 8 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 298 | 261 | 64 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 70 | 5 | 19 | 2 | 245 | 334 | 326 | 660 | 80 | 325 | 23 | 10 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 98 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 193 | 260 | 239 | 499 | 45 | 261 | 29 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 252 | 230 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 48 | 3 | 12 | 5 | 252 | 312 | 330 | 642 | 78 | 305 | 19 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AAA MLE | Toledo Mud Hens | — | 53 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 208 | 269 | 333 | 603 | 125 | 234 | 23 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 139 | 127 | 30 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 236 | 287 | 370 | 657 | 134 | 276 | 21 | 6 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 29 | A+ MLE | Lakeland Flying Tigers | — | 95 | 88 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 261 | 309 | 341 | 649 | 80 | 321 | 21 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 30 | AAA MLE | Colorado Springs Sky Sox | — | 22 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 158 | 238 | 158 | 396 | 152 | 18 | 5 | 166 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 30 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 235 | 133 | 369 | 177 | 35 | 6 | 144 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2010 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 464 | 115 | 28 | 2 | 7 | 46 | 105 | 11 | 41 | 14 | 248 | 330 | 362 | 692 | 114 | 303 | 20 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 528 | 440 | 130 | 35 | 2 | 9 | 68 | 77 | 11 | 41 | 14 | 295 | 401 | 445 | 847 | 150 | 338 | 15 | 13 | 376 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 639 | 543 | 154 | 37 | 7 | 3 | 60 | 95 | 26 | 45 | 6 | 284 | 382 | 394 | 776 | 110 | 336 | 15 | 9 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 639 | 519 | 157 | 37 | 7 | 5 | 84 | 75 | 26 | 45 | 6 | 303 | 424 | 430 | 854 | 127 | 343 | 12 | 13 | 383 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 612 | 547 | 117 | 25 | 8 | 5 | 46 | 120 | 11 | 32 | 6 | 214 | 288 | 316 | 604 | 102 | 265 | 20 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 612 | 525 | 128 | 27 | 9 | 6 | 68 | 97 | 11 | 32 | 6 | 244 | 343 | 364 | 707 | 120 | 288 | 16 | 11 | 319 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 298 | 261 | 64 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 70 | 5 | 19 | 2 | 245 | 334 | 326 | 660 | 80 | 326 | 23 | 10 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA RAW | Reno Aces | — | 298 | 251 | 73 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 40 | 54 | 5 | 19 | 2 | 291 | 399 | 402 | 801 | 112 | 359 | 18 | 13 | 363 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 289 | 261 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 184 | 255 | 218 | 474 | 34 | 270 | 29 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 289 | 249 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 32 | 52 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 233 | 332 | 321 | 653 | 88 | 284 | 18 | 11 | 301 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 405 | 365 | 93 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 77 | 7 | 23 | 5 | 255 | 320 | 334 | 654 | 79 | 312 | 19 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 405 | 353 | 101 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 56 | 7 | 23 | 5 | 286 | 370 | 363 | 733 | 76 | 332 | 14 | 10 | 333 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 287 | 263 | 63 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 61 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 240 | 291 | 346 | 637 | 106 | 295 | 21 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 287 | 253 | 70 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 48 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 277 | 351 | 415 | 766 | 138 | 318 | 17 | 9 | 338 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 39 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 114 | 184 | 114 | 298 | 154 | 26 | 3 | 156 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 30 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 39 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 237 | 147 | 384 | 185 | 21 | 5 | 189 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2010 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 466 | 115 | 28 | 2 | 7 | 46 | 105 | 11 | 41 | 14 | 247 | 330 | 361 | 691 | 114 | 293 | 20 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 639 | 548 | 154 | 37 | 7 | 3 | 60 | 95 | 26 | 45 | 6 | 281 | 382 | 391 | 772 | 109 | 328 | 15 | 9 | 344 | 119 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 612 | 550 | 117 | 25 | 8 | 5 | 46 | 120 | 11 | 32 | 6 | 213 | 288 | 315 | 603 | 102 | 258 | 20 | 8 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 26 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 298 | 261 | 64 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 70 | 5 | 19 | 2 | 245 | 334 | 326 | 660 | 80 | 325 | 23 | 10 | 300 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 27 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 289 | 262 | 48 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 83 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 183 | 255 | 218 | 473 | 34 | 261 | 29 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 405 | 367 | 93 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 28 | 77 | 7 | 23 | 5 | 253 | 320 | 332 | 652 | 79 | 305 | 19 | 7 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 29 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 287 | 266 | 63 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 61 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 237 | 291 | 342 | 633 | 105 | 283 | 21 | 6 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 30 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 39 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 184 | 111 | 295 | 163 | 26 | 3 | 156 | -8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3097 | 2739 | 658 | 130 | 27 | 24 | 248 | 621 | 69 | 174 | 39 | 240 | 319 | 334 | 653 | 93 | 300 | 20 | 8 | 287 | 80 | -72 | +19 | +0 | +11 | +67 | 2.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 575 | 138 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 52 | 130 | 14 | 37 | 8 | 240 | 318 | 334 | 652 | 94 | 300 | 20 | 8 | 287 | 80 | -15 | +4 | +0 | +2 | +14 | 0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAAColorado Springs Sky Sox · 22 PAwOBA .193 → .166 (−27)K% 13.6% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.64% | ÷0.953 | ×1.290 | — | — | 18.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.55% | ÷0.995 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.972 | 3.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.55% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.972 | 4.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.75% | ÷1.018 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.972 | 16.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.163 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.933 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.972 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 104, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 91, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .193 → .166; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .176 → .152. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AABiloxi Shuckers · 17 PAwOBA .187 → .144 (−43)K% 29.4% → 37.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.41% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.035 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.948 | 3.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.88% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.948 | 4.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.948 | 17.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.946 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.915 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.393 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 179, 1B 97, 2B 89, 3B 83, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .187 → .144; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .200 → .177. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAErie SeaWolves · 139 PAwOBA .345 → .284 (−61)K% 17.3% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.27% | ÷0.998 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.35% | ÷1.027 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 6.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.47% | ÷1.045 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | ×0.958 | 21.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.10% | ÷0.973 | ×0.860 | ×1.018 | ×0.958 | 4.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.04% | ÷1.127 | ×0.950 | ×1.018 | ×0.958 | 1.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.08% | ÷1.095 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 2.79% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 125, K 100, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .345 → .284; ISO .172 → .133; BABIP .312 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Lakeland Flying Tigers · 95 PAwOBA .330 → .278 (−52)K% 14.7% → 20.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.74% | ÷1.011 | ×1.420 | — | — | 20.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.37% | ÷1.026 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.940 | 5.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.940 | 0.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.940 | 25.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.94% | ÷1.029 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | ×0.940 | 6.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.145 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.161 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.940 | 0.99% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 129, K 102, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .330 → .278; ISO .093 → .076; BABIP .352 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 53 PAwOBA .291 → .251 (−40)K% 18.9% → 22.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.87% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.32% | ÷1.004 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.982 | 18.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.092 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.982 | 2.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.982 | 2.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.899 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.982 | 2.62% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 100, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .291 → .251; ISO .133 → .121; BABIP .265 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAJackson Generals · 252 PAwOBA .318 → .280 (−38)K% 15.1% → 18.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.08% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 18.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.92% | ÷0.950 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 6.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.54% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×1.042 | ×0.968 | 24.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.98% | ÷1.032 | ×0.910 | ×1.042 | ×0.968 | 5.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.54% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.042 | ×0.968 | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.09% | ÷0.890 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.95% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 95, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 95, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.
Result: wOBA .318 → .280; ISO .086 → .077; BABIP .324 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAReno Aces · 98 PAwOBA .263 → .212 (−51)K% 21.4% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷0.965 | ×1.290 | — | — | 28.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷1.049 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 6.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.047 | ×0.900 | ×1.041 | ×1.003 | 22.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.047 | ×0.810 | ×1.041 | ×1.003 | 2.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.041 | ×1.003 | 1.15% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.116 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 109, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 93, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .263 → .212; ISO .047 → .035; BABIP .297 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAAReno Aces · 298 PAwOBA .354 → .300 (−55)K% 18.1% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.12% | ÷1.000 | ×1.290 | — | — | 23.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.09% | ÷0.947 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 9.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.68% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 1.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.92% | ÷1.018 | ×0.900 | ×1.034 | ×1.018 | 25.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.58% | ÷0.994 | ×0.810 | ×1.034 | ×1.018 | 4.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.03% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.034 | ×1.018 | 1.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.52% | ÷1.121 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 1.08% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 104, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 100, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.
Result: wOBA .354 → .300; ISO .112 → .085; BABIP .359 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .