Beau Amaral
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 26 | AAACIN | 190 | .220/.303/.274 | 0 | 3 | 38 | — | .195/.255/.241 |
| 2018 | 27 | AASEA | 432 | .250/.316/.326 | 3 | 10 | 49 | — | .220/.266/.288 |
| 2019 | 28 | AAAToros de Tiju… | 152 | .226/.309/.368 | 4 | 3 | 53 | — | .201/.255/.309 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 259 | 234 | 69 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 27 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 295 | 358 | 376 | 734 | 81 | 327 | 10 | 7 | 331 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 565 | 515 | 133 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 34 | 81 | 7 | 40 | 12 | 258 | 313 | 324 | 637 | 66 | 300 | 14 | 6 | 287 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 35 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 286 | 233 | 519 | 67 | 200 | 14 | 14 | 251 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 374 | 339 | 100 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 56 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 295 | 354 | 440 | 794 | 145 | 338 | 15 | 7 | 350 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 79 | 70 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 329 | 382 | 529 | 910 | 200 | 400 | 19 | 6 | 383 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 372 | 339 | 76 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 77 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 224 | 281 | 289 | 571 | 65 | 277 | 21 | 6 | 259 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 132 | 118 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 237 | 308 | 322 | 630 | 85 | 276 | 14 | 8 | 285 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 160 | 138 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 246 | 325 | 370 | 694 | 123 | 295 | 21 | 8 | 303 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 43 | 36 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 389 | 476 | 500 | 976 | 111 | 464 | 19 | 14 | 428 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 190 | 168 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 40 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 220 | 303 | 274 | 577 | 54 | 287 | 21 | 9 | 268 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 432 | 384 | 96 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 84 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 250 | 316 | 326 | 641 | 76 | 306 | 19 | 8 | 287 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA | Toros de Tijuana | — | 152 | 133 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 226 | 309 | 368 | 677 | 143 | 271 | 22 | 9 | 301 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 259 | 241 | 56 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 39 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 232 | 280 | 290 | 571 | 58 | 270 | 15 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 565 | 526 | 119 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 107 | 7 | 40 | 12 | 226 | 268 | 281 | 549 | 55 | 274 | 19 | 4 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 35 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 156 | 229 | 219 | 447 | 62 | 191 | 17 | 9 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 374 | 346 | 83 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 78 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 240 | 289 | 344 | 633 | 104 | 296 | 21 | 5 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 79 | 72 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 319 | 355 | 514 | 869 | 194 | 381 | 24 | 4 | 350 | 123 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 372 | 347 | 75 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 96 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 216 | 257 | 271 | 528 | 55 | 279 | 26 | 3 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 132 | 121 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 231 | 285 | 306 | 590 | 74 | 280 | 17 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 160 | 143 | 33 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 231 | 286 | 350 | 635 | 119 | 268 | 24 | 5 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 43 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 282 | 333 | 385 | 718 | 103 | 353 | 28 | 7 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 190 | 174 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 195 | 255 | 241 | 497 | 46 | 266 | 26 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 432 | 396 | 87 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 100 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 220 | 266 | 288 | 554 | 68 | 270 | 23 | 5 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | Toros de Tijuana | — | 152 | 139 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 201 | 255 | 309 | 564 | 108 | 241 | 24 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 259 | 241 | 56 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 39 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 232 | 280 | 290 | 571 | 58 | 271 | 15 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 259 | 234 | 69 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 27 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 295 | 358 | 376 | 734 | 81 | 327 | 10 | 7 | 331 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 565 | 526 | 119 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 107 | 7 | 40 | 12 | 226 | 268 | 281 | 549 | 55 | 279 | 19 | 4 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 565 | 515 | 133 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 34 | 81 | 7 | 40 | 12 | 258 | 313 | 324 | 637 | 66 | 300 | 14 | 6 | 287 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 488 | 449 | 112 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 103 | 6 | 23 | 12 | 249 | 299 | 370 | 669 | 120 | 312 | 21 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 488 | 439 | 128 | 30 | 7 | 7 | 36 | 76 | 6 | 23 | 12 | 292 | 353 | 440 | 793 | 148 | 338 | 16 | 7 | 348 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 372 | 347 | 75 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 96 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 216 | 257 | 271 | 528 | 55 | 288 | 26 | 3 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA RAW | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 372 | 339 | 76 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 77 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 224 | 281 | 289 | 571 | 65 | 277 | 21 | 6 | 259 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 335 | 302 | 72 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 73 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 238 | 294 | 328 | 622 | 89 | 297 | 22 | 6 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 335 | 292 | 76 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 60 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 260 | 337 | 366 | 704 | 106 | 307 | 18 | 9 | 312 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 190 | 174 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 195 | 255 | 241 | 497 | 46 | 270 | 26 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA RAW | Louisville Bats | — | 190 | 168 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 40 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 220 | 303 | 274 | 577 | 54 | 287 | 21 | 9 | 268 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 432 | 396 | 87 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 100 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 220 | 266 | 288 | 554 | 68 | 280 | 23 | 5 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 432 | 384 | 96 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 33 | 84 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 250 | 316 | 326 | 641 | 76 | 306 | 19 | 8 | 287 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | Toros de Tijuana | — | 152 | 139 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 201 | 255 | 309 | 564 | 108 | 250 | 24 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA RAW | Toros de Tijuana | — | 152 | 133 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 226 | 309 | 368 | 677 | 143 | 271 | 22 | 9 | 301 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 259 | 241 | 56 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 39 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 232 | 280 | 290 | 571 | 58 | 270 | 15 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 565 | 530 | 119 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 107 | 7 | 40 | 12 | 225 | 268 | 279 | 547 | 55 | 274 | 19 | 4 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 488 | 453 | 112 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 103 | 6 | 23 | 12 | 247 | 299 | 366 | 666 | 119 | 302 | 21 | 5 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 372 | 350 | 75 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 96 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 214 | 257 | 269 | 525 | 54 | 279 | 26 | 3 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 335 | 308 | 72 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 73 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 234 | 294 | 321 | 616 | 88 | 284 | 22 | 6 | 271 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 190 | 174 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 195 | 255 | 241 | 497 | 46 | 266 | 26 | 6 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 432 | 404 | 87 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 100 | 4 | 10 | 2 | 215 | 266 | 282 | 548 | 67 | 270 | 23 | 5 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AAA MLE | Toros de Tijuana | — | 152 | 141 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 36 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 199 | 255 | 305 | 560 | 106 | 241 | 24 | 5 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2793 | 2574 | 583 | 88 | 21 | 21 | 132 | 603 | 38 | 113 | 43 | 226 | 274 | 301 | 576 | 75 | 285 | 22 | 5 | 251 | 56 | -146 | +5 | +0 | +10 | +61 | -7.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 135 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 140 | 9 | 26 | 10 | 225 | 274 | 301 | 575 | 75 | 283 | 22 | 5 | 251 | 56 | -34 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAToros de Tijuana · 152 PAwOBA .288 → .246 (−41)K% 21.7% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.71% | ÷1.111 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.89% | ÷1.007 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 5.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.32% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 18.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.051 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 3.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.992 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 2.71% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 98, 2B 110, 3B 99, K 122, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .288 → .246; ISO .143 → .111; BABIP .271 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAArkansas Travelers · 432 PAwOBA .284 → .241 (−43)K% 19.4% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.44% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.64% | ÷1.097 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 4.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.67% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×0.993 | ×0.978 | 21.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.00% | ÷0.920 | ×0.840 | ×0.993 | ×0.978 | 5.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷0.925 | ×0.940 | ×0.993 | ×0.978 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.85% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 85, K 104, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .284 → .241; ISO .076 → .068; BABIP .306 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAALouisville Bats · 190 PAwOBA .261 → .225 (−36)K% 21.1% → 25.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷0.985 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.66% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.95% | ÷1.015 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.66% | ÷1.038 | ×0.930 | ×1.039 | ×1.018 | 21.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.47% | ÷1.051 | ×0.830 | ×1.039 | ×1.018 | 4.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.113 | ×0.970 | ×1.039 | ×1.018 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.042 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 108, 2B 110, 3B 123, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .261 → .225; ISO .054 → .046; BABIP .287 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 160 PAwOBA .301 → .266 (−35)K% 20.6% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.62% | ÷1.042 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.12% | ÷1.075 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 5.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.88% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.81% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 21.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.81% | ÷1.081 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 3.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.90% | ÷0.981 | ×0.880 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 1.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.924 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.47% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 96, K 108, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .301 → .266; ISO .123 → .112; BABIP .295 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAALouisville Bats · 132 PAwOBA .277 → .265 (−13)K% 14.4% → 17.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.39% | ÷0.984 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.58% | ÷0.978 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.21% | ÷0.952 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 22.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.05% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 4.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.01% | ÷0.882 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 0.99% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 90, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .277 → .265; ISO .085 → .077; BABIP .276 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ROKBillings Mustangs · 43 PAwOBA .427 → .306 (−122)K% 18.6% → 26.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.60% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.945 | 8.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 42.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.945 | 33.21% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 2.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.945 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.945 | 2.53% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 19.5 → −5.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .427 → .306; ISO .111 → .078; BABIP .464 → .353. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 372 PAwOBA .252 → .231 (−21)K% 20.7% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.70% | ÷0.979 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.38% | ÷1.087 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 3.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.61% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.05% | ÷0.965 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 24.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.05% | ÷0.979 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 3.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.38% | ÷0.903 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.53% | ÷1.037 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.19% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 93, 2B 96, 3B 81, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .252 → .231; ISO .065 → .056; BABIP .277 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 374 PAwOBA .342 → .277 (−65)K% 15.0% → 20.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.97% | ÷0.961 | ×1.340 | — | — | 20.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.95% | ÷0.944 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.34% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.67% | ÷1.031 | ×0.910 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 21.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.13% | ÷1.005 | ×0.820 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 6.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.023 | ×0.998 | 1.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.12% | ÷1.421 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 1.37% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 92, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .342 → .277; ISO .145 → .107; BABIP .338 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).