Josh Prince
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | AADET | 132 | .205/.295/.299 | 2 | 8 | 29 | — | .172/.235/.230 |
| 2018 | 30 | AAJackson Gener… | 356 | .285/.388/.411 | 6 | 12 | 73 | — | .225/.297/.319 |
| 2019 | 31 | AAAARI | 67 | .300/.364/.500 | 2 | 2 | 69 | — | .210/.258/.323 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 21 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 140 | 122 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 221 | 312 | 287 | 598 | 66 | 255 | 15 | 11 | 276 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | ROK | Helena Brewers | — | 176 | 141 | 42 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 25 | 0 | 26 | 7 | 298 | 431 | 348 | 779 | 50 | 356 | 14 | 19 | 362 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ | Brevard County Manatees | — | 449 | 408 | 95 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 80 | 0 | 44 | 11 | 233 | 289 | 282 | 570 | 49 | 286 | 18 | 7 | 258 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ | Brevard County Manatees | — | 278 | 249 | 70 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 37 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 281 | 335 | 386 | 720 | 104 | 311 | 13 | 6 | 315 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA | Huntsville Stars | — | 596 | 505 | 127 | 28 | 3 | 7 | 74 | 107 | 3 | 41 | 18 | 251 | 351 | 360 | 711 | 109 | 301 | 18 | 12 | 318 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | INTL | Phoenix Desert Dogs | — | 106 | 89 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 404 | 495 | 573 | 1.068 | 169 | 467 | 13 | 14 | 466 | 202 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 490 | 418 | 99 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 60 | 105 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 237 | 340 | 368 | 708 | 132 | 289 | 21 | 12 | 319 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA | Huntsville Stars | — | 416 | 345 | 85 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 56 | 73 | 4 | 37 | 10 | 246 | 358 | 333 | 691 | 87 | 297 | 18 | 13 | 314 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 132 | 117 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 26 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 205 | 295 | 299 | 595 | 94 | 247 | 20 | 11 | 276 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 356 | 302 | 86 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 50 | 81 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 285 | 388 | 411 | 799 | 126 | 367 | 23 | 14 | 360 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 31 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 67 | 60 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 300 | 364 | 500 | 864 | 200 | 372 | 22 | 7 | 375 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 21 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 140 | 126 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 190 | 254 | 246 | 500 | 56 | 223 | 21 | 7 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 176 | 154 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 36 | 0 | 26 | 7 | 227 | 316 | 266 | 582 | 39 | 285 | 20 | 11 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 449 | 417 | 86 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 112 | 0 | 44 | 11 | 206 | 248 | 257 | 504 | 50 | 269 | 25 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 278 | 252 | 64 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 51 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 254 | 301 | 349 | 650 | 95 | 287 | 18 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Huntsville Stars | — | 596 | 528 | 116 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 51 | 141 | 3 | 41 | 18 | 220 | 292 | 305 | 597 | 85 | 277 | 24 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 490 | 436 | 84 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 140 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 193 | 271 | 294 | 565 | 101 | 250 | 29 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Huntsville Stars | — | 416 | 362 | 82 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 88 | 4 | 37 | 10 | 227 | 309 | 301 | 610 | 75 | 273 | 21 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 132 | 122 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 172 | 235 | 230 | 464 | 57 | 222 | 25 | 8 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 356 | 320 | 72 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 102 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 225 | 297 | 319 | 616 | 94 | 308 | 29 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 31 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 67 | 62 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 210 | 258 | 323 | 580 | 113 | 296 | 30 | 4 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 316 | 281 | 59 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 65 | 1 | 38 | 12 | 210 | 288 | 256 | 545 | 46 | 265 | 21 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 316 | 263 | 69 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 48 | 46 | 1 | 38 | 12 | 262 | 378 | 319 | 698 | 57 | 309 | 15 | 15 | 324 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 449 | 417 | 86 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 112 | 0 | 44 | 11 | 206 | 248 | 257 | 504 | 50 | 278 | 25 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ RAW | Brevard County Manatees | — | 449 | 408 | 95 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 80 | 0 | 44 | 11 | 233 | 289 | 282 | 570 | 49 | 286 | 18 | 7 | 258 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 278 | 252 | 64 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 51 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 254 | 301 | 349 | 650 | 95 | 302 | 18 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ RAW | Brevard County Manatees | — | 278 | 249 | 70 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 37 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 281 | 335 | 386 | 720 | 104 | 311 | 13 | 6 | 315 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 702 | 623 | 138 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 60 | 166 | 4 | 51 | 22 | 222 | 294 | 310 | 604 | 88 | 289 | 24 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 702 | 594 | 163 | 36 | 5 | 8 | 89 | 121 | 4 | 51 | 22 | 274 | 373 | 392 | 765 | 118 | 327 | 17 | 13 | 341 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 490 | 436 | 84 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 140 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 193 | 271 | 294 | 565 | 101 | 260 | 29 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA RAW | Nashville Sounds | — | 490 | 418 | 99 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 60 | 105 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 237 | 340 | 368 | 708 | 132 | 289 | 21 | 12 | 319 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Huntsville Stars | — | 416 | 362 | 82 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 88 | 4 | 37 | 10 | 227 | 309 | 301 | 610 | 75 | 287 | 21 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA RAW | Huntsville Stars | — | 416 | 345 | 85 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 56 | 73 | 4 | 37 | 10 | 246 | 358 | 333 | 691 | 87 | 297 | 18 | 13 | 314 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 132 | 122 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 172 | 235 | 230 | 464 | 57 | 227 | 25 | 8 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 132 | 117 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 26 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 205 | 295 | 299 | 595 | 94 | 247 | 20 | 11 | 276 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 356 | 320 | 72 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 102 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 225 | 297 | 319 | 616 | 94 | 310 | 29 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AA RAW | Jackson Generals | — | 356 | 302 | 86 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 50 | 81 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 285 | 388 | 411 | 799 | 126 | 367 | 23 | 14 | 360 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 31 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 67 | 62 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 210 | 258 | 323 | 580 | 113 | 293 | 30 | 4 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 31 | AAA RAW | Reno Aces | — | 67 | 60 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 300 | 364 | 500 | 864 | 200 | 372 | 22 | 7 | 375 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 316 | 282 | 59 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 65 | 1 | 38 | 12 | 209 | 288 | 255 | 544 | 46 | 258 | 21 | 9 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 449 | 423 | 86 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 112 | 0 | 44 | 11 | 203 | 248 | 253 | 501 | 50 | 269 | 25 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | Brevard County Manatees | — | 278 | 259 | 64 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 51 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 247 | 301 | 340 | 641 | 93 | 287 | 18 | 5 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 702 | 632 | 138 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 60 | 166 | 4 | 51 | 22 | 218 | 294 | 305 | 599 | 87 | 277 | 24 | 9 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 490 | 440 | 84 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 42 | 140 | 5 | 25 | 8 | 191 | 271 | 291 | 562 | 100 | 250 | 29 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Huntsville Stars | — | 416 | 370 | 82 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 39 | 88 | 4 | 37 | 10 | 222 | 309 | 295 | 603 | 73 | 273 | 21 | 9 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 132 | 121 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 174 | 235 | 231 | 466 | 58 | 222 | 25 | 8 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 356 | 320 | 72 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 102 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 225 | 297 | 319 | 616 | 94 | 308 | 29 | 9 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 31 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 67 | 63 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 206 | 258 | 317 | 575 | 111 | 296 | 30 | 4 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3206 | 2875 | 619 | 117 | 9 | 31 | 253 | 777 | 19 | 241 | 80 | 215 | 283 | 295 | 578 | 79 | 281 | 24 | 8 | 256 | 59 | -156 | +16 | -0 | -34 | +69 | -10.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 583 | 126 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 51 | 158 | 4 | 49 | 16 | 216 | 284 | 295 | 579 | 79 | 283 | 24 | 8 | 256 | 59 | -32 | +3 | -0 | -7 | +14 | -2.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAAReno Aces · 67 PAwOBA .365 → .270 (−95)K% 22.4% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.39% | ÷0.970 | ×1.290 | — | — | 29.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.46% | ÷0.986 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.962 | 5.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.962 | 1.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.035 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.962 | 18.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.33% | ÷1.025 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.962 | 10.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.44% | ÷1.077 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.962 | 3.10% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .365 → .270; ISO .200 → .138; BABIP .372 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAJackson Generals · 356 PAwOBA .354 → .276 (−77)K% 22.8% → 28.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.75% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.04% | ÷1.003 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.948 | 9.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.28% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.948 | 0.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.05% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×0.948 | 24.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.24% | ÷1.022 | ×0.910 | ×0.963 | ×0.948 | 5.89% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.90% | ÷1.145 | ×0.880 | ×0.963 | ×0.948 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.71% | ÷0.954 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.948 | 2.16% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 96, 2B 104, 3B 129, K 94, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .354 → .276; ISO .126 → .100; BABIP .367 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAErie SeaWolves · 132 PAwOBA .269 → .211 (−58)K% 19.7% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.70% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.36% | ÷1.077 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 7.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.68% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×0.978 | 17.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.49% | ÷1.095 | ×0.860 | ×0.992 | ×0.978 | 4.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.074 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.20% | ÷1.100 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 1.52% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 99, 2B 119, 3B 115, K 92, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .269 → .211; ISO .094 → .067; BABIP .247 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAHuntsville Stars · 416 PAwOBA .307 → .269 (−38)K% 17.5% → 21.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.55% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.22% | ÷0.945 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 9.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.90% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.986 | ×0.988 | 22.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.51% | ÷0.950 | ×0.910 | ×0.986 | ×0.988 | 5.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.986 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.84% | ÷1.047 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.39% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 95, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 103, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .307 → .269; ISO .087 → .077; BABIP .297 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAANashville Sounds · 490 PAwOBA .312 → .250 (−62)K% 21.4% → 28.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷0.971 | ×1.290 | — | — | 28.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.24% | ÷1.054 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 8.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.02% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.73% | ÷1.001 | ×0.900 | ×0.974 | ×1.033 | 19.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.75% | ÷1.119 | ×0.810 | ×0.974 | ×1.033 | 4.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.974 | ×1.033 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.51% | ÷0.934 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 3.03% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 100, 2B 124, 3B 80, K 94, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .312 → .250; ISO .132 → .105; BABIP .289 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAHuntsville Stars · 596 PAwOBA .315 → .266 (−49)K% 18.0% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.95% | ÷0.924 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.42% | ÷1.009 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 8.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.36% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | ×1.012 | 20.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.04% | ÷0.915 | ×0.910 | ×1.007 | ×1.012 | 7.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.007 | ×1.012 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.76% | ÷1.277 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.11% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 108, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 85, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .315 → .266; ISO .109 → .093; BABIP .301 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+Brevard County Manatees · 278 PAwOBA .308 → .278 (−30)K% 13.3% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.31% | ÷1.032 | ×1.420 | — | — | 18.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.12% | ÷0.941 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 4.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.08% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 1.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.47% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | ×0.998 | 22.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.19% | ÷0.881 | ×0.960 | ×0.991 | ×0.998 | 5.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.915 | ×0.810 | ×0.991 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.36% | ÷1.017 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 2.04% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 104, 2B 76, 3B 83, K 106, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .308 → .278; ISO .104 → .099; BABIP .311 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 A+Brevard County Manatees · 449 PAwOBA .253 → .220 (−33)K% 17.8% → 25.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.82% | ÷1.014 | ×1.420 | — | — | 24.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.13% | ÷1.050 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.012 | 5.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.09% | ÷1.038 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×1.012 | 22.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.96% | ÷0.916 | ×0.960 | ×1.024 | ×1.012 | 4.31% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.61% | ÷1.004 | ×0.810 | ×1.024 | ×1.012 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.30% | ÷0.881 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.31% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 108, 2B 83, 3B 101, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .253 → .220; ISO .049 → .048; BABIP .286 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .