Shannon Wilkerson
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 512 | .260/.310/.345 | 2 | 12 | 56 | — | .241/.276/.314 |
| 2015 | 27 | AACIN | 207 | .292/.355/.378 | 1 | 11 | 77 | — | .277/.320/.361 |
| 2016 | 28 | AACIN | 220 | .241/.298/.332 | 2 | 1 | 44 | — | .211/.251/.275 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 21 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 120 | 112 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 241 | 286 | 393 | 679 | 152 | 266 | 14 | 6 | 298 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A | Greenville Drive | — | 299 | 269 | 66 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 57 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 245 | 301 | 323 | 625 | 78 | 304 | 19 | 6 | 278 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 390 | 342 | 86 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 70 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 251 | 324 | 404 | 727 | 152 | 285 | 18 | 9 | 319 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 97 | 91 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 264 | 309 | 319 | 628 | 55 | 320 | 16 | 5 | 287 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | — | 421 | 386 | 104 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 72 | 1 | 29 | 7 | 269 | 306 | 376 | 682 | 106 | 316 | 17 | 5 | 295 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 538 | 465 | 110 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 53 | 101 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 237 | 321 | 338 | 659 | 101 | 290 | 19 | 10 | 293 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 85 | 77 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 234 | 256 | 286 | 542 | 52 | 321 | 25 | 4 | 234 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 427 | 384 | 102 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 69 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 266 | 320 | 357 | 677 | 91 | 315 | 16 | 7 | 298 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 207 | 185 | 54 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 292 | 355 | 378 | 733 | 86 | 333 | 12 | 8 | 325 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 220 | 199 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 241 | 298 | 332 | 629 | 90 | 271 | 13 | 6 | 280 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 120 | 114 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 219 | 252 | 360 | 612 | 140 | 247 | 19 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 299 | 276 | 58 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 75 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 210 | 253 | 275 | 529 | 65 | 271 | 25 | 4 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 390 | 359 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 105 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 203 | 253 | 323 | 576 | 120 | 247 | 27 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 97 | 93 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 237 | 268 | 280 | 548 | 43 | 304 | 21 | 3 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 421 | 395 | 87 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 101 | 1 | 29 | 7 | 220 | 245 | 301 | 546 | 81 | 269 | 24 | 3 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 538 | 480 | 107 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 38 | 125 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 223 | 287 | 308 | 595 | 85 | 279 | 23 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Pawtucket Red Sox | — | 85 | 80 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 237 | 256 | 287 | 544 | 50 | 321 | 31 | 2 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 427 | 394 | 95 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 86 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 241 | 280 | 320 | 599 | 79 | 289 | 20 | 5 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 207 | 191 | 53 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 277 | 320 | 361 | 681 | 84 | 312 | 15 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 220 | 204 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 211 | 251 | 275 | 526 | 64 | 245 | 16 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 120 | 114 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 219 | 252 | 360 | 612 | 140 | 256 | 19 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 120 | 112 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 241 | 286 | 393 | 679 | 152 | 266 | 14 | 6 | 298 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 299 | 276 | 58 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 75 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 210 | 253 | 275 | 529 | 65 | 282 | 25 | 4 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 299 | 269 | 66 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 57 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 245 | 301 | 323 | 625 | 78 | 304 | 19 | 6 | 278 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 390 | 359 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 105 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 203 | 253 | 323 | 576 | 120 | 256 | 27 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 390 | 342 | 86 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 34 | 70 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 251 | 324 | 404 | 727 | 152 | 285 | 18 | 9 | 319 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 518 | 487 | 109 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 122 | 2 | 32 | 7 | 224 | 251 | 298 | 549 | 74 | 286 | 24 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 518 | 477 | 128 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 88 | 2 | 32 | 7 | 268 | 307 | 365 | 672 | 96 | 317 | 17 | 5 | 294 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 538 | 480 | 107 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 38 | 125 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 223 | 287 | 308 | 595 | 85 | 291 | 23 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 538 | 465 | 110 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 53 | 101 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 237 | 321 | 338 | 659 | 101 | 290 | 19 | 10 | 293 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 512 | 474 | 113 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 112 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 238 | 274 | 312 | 586 | 74 | 305 | 22 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 512 | 461 | 120 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 33 | 90 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 260 | 310 | 345 | 655 | 85 | 316 | 18 | 6 | 287 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 207 | 191 | 53 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 277 | 320 | 361 | 681 | 84 | 327 | 15 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 207 | 185 | 54 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 292 | 355 | 378 | 733 | 86 | 333 | 12 | 8 | 325 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 220 | 204 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 211 | 251 | 275 | 526 | 64 | 250 | 16 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 220 | 199 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 241 | 298 | 332 | 629 | 90 | 271 | 13 | 6 | 280 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 21 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 120 | 114 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 219 | 252 | 360 | 612 | 140 | 247 | 19 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 299 | 281 | 58 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 75 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 206 | 253 | 270 | 524 | 64 | 271 | 25 | 4 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 390 | 363 | 73 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 105 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 201 | 253 | 320 | 573 | 118 | 247 | 27 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 518 | 495 | 109 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 122 | 2 | 32 | 7 | 220 | 251 | 293 | 544 | 73 | 276 | 24 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 538 | 490 | 107 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 38 | 125 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 218 | 287 | 302 | 589 | 84 | 279 | 23 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 512 | 484 | 113 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 112 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 233 | 274 | 306 | 579 | 72 | 294 | 22 | 4 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 207 | 193 | 53 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 31 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 275 | 320 | 358 | 678 | 83 | 312 | 15 | 5 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 220 | 207 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 208 | 251 | 271 | 522 | 63 | 245 | 16 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2804 | 2585 | 581 | 100 | 26 | 22 | 132 | 629 | 20 | 105 | 37 | 225 | 268 | 309 | 577 | 84 | 285 | 22 | 5 | 248 | 54 | -152 | +6 | +0 | +10 | +61 | -7.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 134 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 146 | 5 | 24 | 9 | 224 | 268 | 307 | 575 | 83 | 284 | 22 | 5 | 248 | 54 | -35 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 220 PAwOBA .274 → .233 (−41)K% 12.7% → 16.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.73% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 16.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.36% | ÷1.039 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 4.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.47% | ÷1.005 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 19.05% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.85% | ÷1.108 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 4.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.58% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.17% | ÷1.301 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.70% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 101, 2B 122, 3B 80, K 92, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .274 → .233; ISO .090 → .071; BABIP .271 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 207 PAwOBA .317 → .282 (−35)K% 12.1% → 14.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.08% | ÷0.988 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.21% | ÷1.059 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 5.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.50% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | ×1.030 | ×0.978 | 26.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷0.999 | ×0.910 | ×1.030 | ×0.978 | 2.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.020 | ×0.880 | ×1.030 | ×0.978 | 2.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.232 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.40% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 146, 1B 96, 2B 100, 3B 104, K 98, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .317 → .282; ISO .086 → .075; BABIP .333 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 427 PAwOBA .293 → .257 (−35)K% 16.2% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.16% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.03% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.49% | ÷1.014 | ×0.970 | ×0.997 | ×0.988 | 22.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.30% | ÷1.025 | ×0.860 | ×0.997 | ×0.988 | 6.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.95% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.997 | ×0.988 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.63% | ÷0.959 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.51% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 103, 2B 105, 3B 80, K 95, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .293 → .257; ISO .091 → .080; BABIP .315 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAAPawtucket Red Sox · 85 PAwOBA .227 → .222 (−5)K% 24.7% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.71% | ÷0.980 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.53% | ÷1.084 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 2.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.79% | ÷0.976 | ×0.930 | ×1.041 | ×1.018 | 27.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷0.937 | ×0.830 | ×1.041 | ×1.018 | 3.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.104 | ×0.970 | ×1.041 | ×1.018 | 1.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.240 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 95, 2B 87, 3B 121, K 96, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .227 → .222; ISO .052 → .050; BABIP .321 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 538 PAwOBA .289 → .262 (−28)K% 18.8% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.77% | ÷0.989 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.85% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.93% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.15% | ÷0.980 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 20.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.32% | ÷0.987 | ×0.860 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.65% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.999 | ×0.998 | 1.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.10% | ÷1.026 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.83% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 96, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .289 → .262; ISO .101 → .091; BABIP .290 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Salem Red Sox · 421 PAwOBA .291 → .233 (−58)K% 17.1% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.10% | ÷1.008 | ×1.420 | — | — | 24.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.75% | ÷1.035 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 2.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.24% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.20% | ÷1.041 | ×0.940 | ×0.996 | ×0.988 | 21.50% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.05% | ÷1.089 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×0.988 | 4.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.59% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×0.996 | ×0.988 | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.27% | ÷0.944 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 1.20% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 108, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 102, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .291 → .233; ISO .106 → .082; BABIP .316 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 97 PAwOBA .280 → .246 (−34)K% 16.5% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.49% | ÷0.958 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.15% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 3.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.33% | ÷1.007 | ×0.970 | ×1.015 | ×1.012 | 25.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.095 | ×0.860 | ×1.015 | ×1.012 | 5.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.098 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 101, 2B 119, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .280 → .246; ISO .055 → .043; BABIP .320 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 A+Salem Red Sox · 390 PAwOBA .315 → .248 (−66)K% 17.9% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.95% | ÷0.949 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.72% | ÷1.046 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 5.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.59% | ÷0.966 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 18.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.62% | ÷1.091 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 4.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.74% | ÷0.926 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.68% | ÷0.994 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 3.32% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 85, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .315 → .248; ISO .152 → .122; BABIP .285 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).