Keenyn Walker
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 23 | AA/A+CWS | 383 | .197/.278/.265 | 2 | 31 | 7 | — | .150/.204/.192 |
| 2015 | 24 | AA/A+CWS | 416 | .226/.309/.286 | 2 | 37 | 32 | — | .194/.248/.233 |
| 2016 | 25 | AACWS | 374 | .240/.330/.340 | 3 | 21 | 55 | — | .204/.268/.286 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 20 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 180 | 162 | 37 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 64 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 228 | 298 | 259 | 557 | 31 | 374 | 36 | 8 | 258 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | ROK | Great Falls Voyagers | — | 72 | 60 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 333 | 437 | 483 | 920 | 150 | 455 | 24 | 10 | 407 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 168 | 143 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 50 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 238 | 347 | 364 | 711 | 126 | 341 | 30 | 14 | 324 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 320 | 266 | 75 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 50 | 93 | 1 | 39 | 11 | 282 | 397 | 387 | 785 | 105 | 425 | 29 | 16 | 356 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 550 | 462 | 93 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 69 | 153 | 11 | 38 | 15 | 201 | 319 | 277 | 596 | 76 | 294 | 28 | 13 | 279 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 122 | 110 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 55 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 155 | 231 | 236 | 468 | 82 | 283 | 45 | 9 | 217 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 261 | 230 | 50 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 85 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 217 | 300 | 278 | 578 | 61 | 342 | 33 | 10 | 266 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 225 | 203 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 55 | 0 | 12 | 10 | 187 | 260 | 227 | 487 | 39 | 243 | 24 | 9 | 229 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 191 | 164 | 45 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 38 | 2 | 25 | 6 | 274 | 367 | 360 | 727 | 85 | 357 | 20 | 12 | 328 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 374 | 329 | 79 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 43 | 106 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 240 | 330 | 340 | 670 | 100 | 345 | 28 | 11 | 307 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 20 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 180 | 167 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 82 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 186 | 236 | 216 | 452 | 30 | 348 | 46 | 5 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | ROK MLE | Great Falls Voyagers | — | 72 | 63 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 238 | 324 | 349 | 673 | 111 | 349 | 33 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 168 | 153 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 73 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 183 | 251 | 275 | 526 | 92 | 323 | 43 | 8 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A MLE | Kannapolis Intimidators | — | 320 | 285 | 65 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 124 | 1 | 39 | 11 | 228 | 306 | 309 | 615 | 81 | 388 | 39 | 10 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 550 | 484 | 85 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 47 | 201 | 11 | 38 | 15 | 176 | 264 | 233 | 497 | 58 | 286 | 37 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 122 | 114 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 70 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 114 | 165 | 167 | 332 | 53 | 270 | 57 | 6 | 154 | -10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 261 | 240 | 40 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 126 | 2 | 20 | 3 | 167 | 222 | 204 | 426 | 38 | 331 | 48 | 6 | 191 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 225 | 210 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 68 | 0 | 12 | 10 | 167 | 215 | 190 | 406 | 24 | 234 | 30 | 6 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 191 | 173 | 39 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 58 | 2 | 25 | 6 | 225 | 287 | 283 | 570 | 58 | 323 | 30 | 7 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 374 | 343 | 70 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 131 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 204 | 268 | 286 | 554 | 82 | 322 | 35 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 252 | 230 | 44 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 107 | 6 | 21 | 9 | 191 | 253 | 230 | 483 | 39 | 352 | 42 | 5 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 252 | 222 | 57 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 81 | 6 | 21 | 9 | 257 | 337 | 320 | 657 | 63 | 399 | 32 | 8 | 301 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 488 | 438 | 93 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 45 | 197 | 1 | 56 | 15 | 212 | 287 | 297 | 584 | 84 | 373 | 40 | 9 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 488 | 409 | 109 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 74 | 143 | 1 | 56 | 15 | 267 | 380 | 379 | 759 | 112 | 396 | 29 | 15 | 345 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 550 | 484 | 85 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 47 | 201 | 11 | 38 | 15 | 176 | 264 | 233 | 497 | 58 | 295 | 37 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 550 | 462 | 93 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 69 | 153 | 11 | 38 | 15 | 201 | 319 | 277 | 596 | 76 | 294 | 28 | 13 | 279 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 383 | 353 | 52 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 196 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 147 | 204 | 184 | 388 | 37 | 325 | 51 | 6 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 383 | 340 | 67 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 140 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 197 | 278 | 265 | 542 | 68 | 327 | 37 | 9 | 250 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 416 | 383 | 73 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 126 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 191 | 246 | 230 | 476 | 39 | 279 | 30 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 416 | 367 | 83 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 42 | 93 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 226 | 309 | 286 | 595 | 60 | 296 | 22 | 10 | 274 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 374 | 343 | 70 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 131 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 204 | 268 | 286 | 554 | 82 | 324 | 35 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA RAW | Birmingham Barons | — | 374 | 329 | 79 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 43 | 106 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 240 | 330 | 340 | 670 | 100 | 345 | 28 | 11 | 307 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 252 | 231 | 44 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 107 | 6 | 21 | 9 | 190 | 253 | 229 | 482 | 39 | 348 | 42 | 5 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 488 | 439 | 93 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 45 | 197 | 1 | 56 | 15 | 212 | 287 | 296 | 583 | 84 | 366 | 40 | 9 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 550 | 487 | 85 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 47 | 201 | 11 | 38 | 15 | 175 | 264 | 232 | 496 | 57 | 286 | 37 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 383 | 355 | 52 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 196 | 2 | 31 | 5 | 146 | 204 | 183 | 387 | 37 | 312 | 51 | 6 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 416 | 385 | 73 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 126 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 190 | 246 | 229 | 474 | 39 | 275 | 30 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 374 | 341 | 70 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 131 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 205 | 268 | 287 | 555 | 82 | 322 | 35 | 8 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2463 | 2231 | 417 | 65 | 19 | 9 | 183 | 958 | 23 | 204 | 68 | 187 | 256 | 245 | 501 | 58 | 321 | 39 | 7 | 228 | 40 | -175 | +14 | +0 | -26 | +53 | -13.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 110 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 48 | 253 | 6 | 54 | 18 | 187 | 255 | 243 | 498 | 56 | 321 | 39 | 7 | 228 | 40 | -46 | +4 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -3.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AABirmingham Barons · 374 PAwOBA .299 → .249 (−50)K% 28.3% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.34% | ÷0.991 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.50% | ÷0.990 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 7.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.11% | ÷1.004 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 23.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.17% | ÷0.897 | ×0.910 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 7.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.018 | ×0.988 | 1.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.918 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.16% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 101, 2B 79, 3B 130, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .299 → .249; ISO .100 → .088; BABIP .345 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AABirmingham Barons · 225 PAwOBA .225 → .190 (−35)K% 24.4% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.44% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.89% | ÷1.019 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 5.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.97% | ÷1.007 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 22.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.35% | ÷0.875 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 1.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.087 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.102 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.98% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 101, 2B 75, 3B 117, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .225 → .190; ISO .039 → .031; BABIP .243 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 191 PAwOBA .320 → .246 (−75)K% 19.9% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.90% | ÷0.932 | ×1.420 | — | — | 30.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.52% | ÷1.060 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 6.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷0.963 | ×0.940 | ×1.009 | ×0.978 | 26.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.175 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×0.978 | 3.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.17% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.009 | ×0.978 | 2.18% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.090 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 93, 2B 135, 3B 130, K 86, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .320 → .246; ISO .085 → .056; BABIP .357 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 261 PAwOBA .260 → .191 (−69)K% 32.6% → 48.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.57% | ÷0.961 | ×1.420 | — | — | 48.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.58% | ÷1.012 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.988 | 5.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.90% | ÷0.949 | ×0.940 | ×1.045 | ×0.988 | 27.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.52% | ÷1.069 | ×0.830 | ×1.045 | ×0.988 | 4.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.07% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | ×1.045 | ×0.988 | 1.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.065 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 90, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 92, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .260 → .191; ISO .061 → .038; BABIP .342 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AABirmingham Barons · 122 PAwOBA .212 → .154 (−58)K% 45.1% → 57.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 45.08% | ÷0.955 | ×1.220 | — | — | 57.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.02% | ÷1.057 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.64% | ÷1.021 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 22.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.82% | ÷0.903 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 1.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.82% | ÷1.065 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 1.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.64% | ÷0.967 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.05% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 104, 2B 81, 3B 113, K 91, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .212 → .154; ISO .082 → .058; BABIP .283 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AABirmingham Barons · 550 PAwOBA .272 → .227 (−45)K% 27.8% → 36.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.82% | ÷0.926 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.36% | ÷1.001 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 8.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.33% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 22.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.18% | ÷1.096 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 4.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.62% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 1.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.97% | ÷0.991 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.80% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 119, 3B 130, K 85, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .272 → .227; ISO .076 → .061; BABIP .294 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AKannapolis Intimidators · 320 PAwOBA .350 → .275 (−75)K% 29.1% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.06% | ÷1.002 | ×1.340 | — | — | 38.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.62% | ÷1.060 | ×0.660 | — | — | 9.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.31% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 0.24% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.21% | ÷1.039 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | — | 29.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.67% | ÷0.983 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | — | 7.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.89% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | — | 2.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.58% | ÷0.917 | ×0.820 | — | — | 0.52% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 108, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 100, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .350 → .275; ISO .105 → .087; BABIP .425 → .388. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 168 PAwOBA .316 → .241 (−75)K% 29.8% → 43.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.76% | ÷0.974 | ×1.420 | — | — | 43.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.69% | ÷1.016 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 8.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.73% | ÷1.034 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 23.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.53% | ÷0.958 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 6.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷1.030 | ×0.800 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷0.960 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 3.06% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 106, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .316 → .241; ISO .126 → .101; BABIP .341 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).