Ryan Tepera projections, WAR, contract

Ryan Tepera P St. Louis Cardinals

Age 38 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 99

ERA4.18

FIP4.34

K%23.2%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%14.3%

ROS IP48

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1191.7

Whiff%

p5025.3%

p3019.3%

xwOBA vs

p170.351

CT-2.1

FB-3.1

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	67	258	59	18	9	0%	1.3	21.1%	7.2%	13.9%	3.5%	2.15	4.17	+0.3
2015	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	67	258	59	18	9	0%	1.3	22.9%	7.0%	15.9%	3.5%	2.15	3.89	+0.5
2016	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	64	266	66	23	4	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	1.4%	2.69	3.11	+1.1
2016	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	64	266	66	23	4	0%	1.1	24.8%	8.6%	16.2%	1.5%	2.69	2.93	+1.2
2017	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	73	0	78	319	81	27	7	0%	1.1	25.4%	8.5%	16.9%	2.2%	3.59	3.23	+1.2
2017	29	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	73	0	78	319	81	27	7	0%	1.1	25.4%	8.5%	16.9%	2.2%	3.59	3.23	+1.2
2018	30	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	68	0	65	263	68	23	9	0%	1.0	25.9%	8.7%	17.1%	3.4%	3.62	3.90	+0.5
2018	30	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	68	0	65	263	68	23	9	0%	1.0	25.9%	8.7%	17.1%	3.4%	3.62	3.87	+0.5
2019	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	3	29	121	20	9	6	10%	1.0	15.4%	6.6%	8.8%	5.5%	4.40	5.65	-0.4
2019	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	3	29	121	20	9	6	10%	1.0	16.5%	7.4%	9.1%	5.0%	4.40	5.37	-0.3
2020	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	21	0	21	89	31	12	2	0%	1.0	34.8%	13.5%	21.3%	2.3%	3.92	3.15	+0.3
2020	32	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	21	0	21	89	31	12	2	0%	1.0	34.8%	13.5%	21.3%	2.2%	3.92	3.10	+0.4
2021	33	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	65	0	61	240	74	18	4	0%	0.9	30.8%	7.5%	23.3%	1.6%	2.79	2.35	+1.6
2021	33	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	65	0	61	240	74	18	4	0%	0.9	30.8%	7.5%	23.3%	1.7%	2.79	2.42	+1.6
2022	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	59	0	57	232	47	17	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	7.3%	12.9%	3.0%	3.61	3.94	+0.4
2022	34	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	59	0	57	232	47	17	7	0%	1.0	20.3%	7.3%	12.9%	3.0%	3.61	3.94	+0.4
2023	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	21	92	27	6	3	5%	1.0	19.3%	5.3%	14.0%	5.7%	3.92	5.24	-0.2
2023	35	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	21	92	27	6	3	5%	1.0	19.3%	5.3%	14.0%	5.7%	3.92	5.24	-0.2
2023	35	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	1	21	92	27	6	3	5%	1.0	29.3%	6.5%	22.8%	3.3%	3.92	3.25	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			373	1	365	1504	366	119	46	0%	1.0	24.3%	7.9%	16.4%	3.1%	3.62	3.71	+3.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	38	MLB	STL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.2%	8.9%	14.3%	3.1%	4.18	4.34	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	STL	39	0	41	174	38	17	6	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.6%	12.5%	3.5%	4.53	4.77	-0.1
2027	39	MLB CTX	STL	39	0	41	173	38	17	6	0%	1.1	22.1%	9.6%	12.5%	3.5%	4.53	4.77	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		412	1	406	1678	404	136	52	0%	1.0	24.1%	8.1%	16.0%	3.1%	3.71	3.79	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		203	0	200	825	199	67	26	0%	1.0	24.1%	8.1%	16.0%	3.1%	3.71	3.79	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		447	4	462	1880	452	152	54	1%	1.0	24.1%	8.1%	16.0%	2.9%	3.24	3.66	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		194	2	200	814	196	66	23	1%	1.0	24.1%	8.1%	16.0%	2.9%	3.24	3.66	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Tepera (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.34	23.2%	8.9%	3.1%	—	4.77	22.1%	12.5%	41	+0.43	—	—	—
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	73
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	71
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	69
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	67
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	66
Billy Taylor R 2000 · 4.53 FIP	38	SU	4.53	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	323	65
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	60
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	58
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	53
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	53
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	52
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	36
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	34
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	31

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	50	24.0%	8.9%	1.20	3.76
Neftalí Feliz ('21)	2.0	49	22.9%	9.7%	1.05	3.55
Dominic Leone ('24)	2.1	54	23.9%	10.4%	1.26	3.94
David Hernandez ('19)	3.2	65	23.9%	9.1%	1.22	4.12
Jason Motte ('17)	2.0	50	23.0%	7.7%	1.11	3.30
David Riske ('10)	2.5	55	20.8%	10.0%	1.19	3.67
Will Smith ('24)	3.3	59	27.4%	8.7%	1.16	3.85