Jose Rivera
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 24 | AA/A+2 orgs | 127 | .233/.288/.362 | 1 | 1 | 45 | — | .195/.240/.305 |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 193 | .244/.296/.318 | 1 | 0 | 43 | — | .216/.245/.284 |
| 2016 | 26 | INTLGigantes de C… | 33 | .103/.161/.172 | 0 | 0 | -12 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 19 | ROK | Casper Ghosts | — | 129 | 112 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 188 | 278 | 214 | 492 | 27 | 228 | 16 | 10 | 232 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | ROK | Casper Ghosts | — | 164 | 150 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 250 | 233 | 483 | 33 | 236 | 14 | 5 | 220 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK | Casper Ghosts | — | 131 | 123 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 228 | 264 | 309 | 573 | 81 | 287 | 21 | 4 | 255 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 235 | 210 | 54 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 257 | 313 | 362 | 675 | 105 | 277 | 9 | 5 | 295 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 123 | 104 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 183 | 267 | 192 | 460 | 10 | 224 | 15 | 6 | 212 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A | Asheville Tourists | — | 119 | 103 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 272 | 359 | 417 | 776 | 146 | 342 | 19 | 12 | 342 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA | Tulsa Drillers | — | 105 | 96 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 308 | 365 | 672 | 115 | 316 | 20 | 5 | 300 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ | Modesto Nuts | — | 22 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 350 | 540 | 200 | 125 | 18 | 5 | 226 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 141 | 132 | 34 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 258 | 295 | 341 | 636 | 83 | 347 | 26 | 4 | 283 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 52 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 205 | 300 | 250 | 550 | 45 | 273 | 21 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | INTL | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 33 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 161 | 172 | 334 | 69 | 143 | 24 | 0 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 19 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 129 | 117 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 145 | 206 | 162 | 369 | 17 | 195 | 23 | 6 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 164 | 153 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 163 | 200 | 190 | 390 | 26 | 199 | 20 | 3 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 131 | 125 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 168 | 194 | 232 | 426 | 64 | 236 | 31 | 2 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 235 | 214 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 234 | 278 | 308 | 586 | 75 | 252 | 13 | 3 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 123 | 106 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 179 | 250 | 189 | 439 | 9 | 209 | 21 | 4 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 119 | 108 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 213 | 274 | 324 | 598 | 111 | 290 | 28 | 8 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | Tulsa Drillers | — | 105 | 98 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 204 | 250 | 296 | 546 | 92 | 273 | 25 | 3 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | A+ MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 22 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 350 | 540 | 200 | 104 | 23 | 5 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | Albuquerque Isotopes | — | 141 | 134 | 29 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 48 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 216 | 245 | 284 | 528 | 67 | 322 | 34 | 3 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 129 | 117 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 145 | 206 | 162 | 369 | 17 | 193 | 23 | 6 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | ROK RAW | Casper Ghosts | — | 129 | 112 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 188 | 278 | 214 | 492 | 27 | 228 | 16 | 10 | 232 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 164 | 153 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 163 | 200 | 190 | 390 | 26 | 208 | 20 | 3 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | ROK RAW | Casper Ghosts | — | 164 | 150 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 250 | 233 | 483 | 33 | 236 | 14 | 5 | 220 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 131 | 125 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 168 | 194 | 232 | 426 | 64 | 238 | 31 | 2 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK RAW | Casper Ghosts | — | 131 | 123 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 228 | 264 | 309 | 573 | 81 | 287 | 21 | 4 | 255 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 235 | 214 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 234 | 278 | 308 | 586 | 75 | 266 | 13 | 3 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A RAW | Asheville Tourists | — | 235 | 210 | 54 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 257 | 313 | 362 | 675 | 105 | 277 | 9 | 5 | 295 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 214 | 42 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 58 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 196 | 262 | 257 | 519 | 61 | 265 | 24 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 242 | 207 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 42 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 227 | 313 | 304 | 618 | 77 | 280 | 17 | 9 | 276 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 127 | 118 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 195 | 240 | 305 | 545 | 110 | 250 | 24 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 127 | 116 | 27 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 233 | 288 | 362 | 650 | 129 | 283 | 20 | 5 | 287 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 193 | 182 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 66 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 214 | 243 | 275 | 518 | 60 | 330 | 34 | 3 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 193 | 176 | 43 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 47 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 244 | 296 | 318 | 614 | 74 | 328 | 24 | 6 | 275 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | INTL MLE | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 33 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 161 | 172 | 334 | 69 | 143 | 24 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 26 | INTL RAW | Gigantes de Carolina | — | 33 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 161 | 172 | 334 | 69 | 143 | 24 | 0 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 19 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 129 | 119 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 30 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 143 | 206 | 160 | 366 | 17 | 195 | 23 | 6 | 175 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 20 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 164 | 156 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 160 | 200 | 186 | 386 | 26 | 199 | 20 | 3 | 168 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 21 | ROK MLE | Casper Ghosts | — | 131 | 126 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 167 | 194 | 230 | 424 | 63 | 236 | 31 | 2 | 180 | 8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 22 | A MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 235 | 220 | 50 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 227 | 278 | 300 | 578 | 73 | 252 | 13 | 3 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 221 | 42 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 58 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 190 | 262 | 249 | 511 | 59 | 249 | 24 | 6 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 127 | 119 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 31 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 193 | 240 | 303 | 543 | 109 | 244 | 24 | 3 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 193 | 184 | 39 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 66 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 212 | 243 | 272 | 515 | 60 | 322 | 34 | 3 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1254 | 1152 | 220 | 40 | 7 | 5 | 47 | 296 | 21 | 13 | 19 | 191 | 236 | 251 | 487 | 60 | 251 | 24 | 4 | 206 | 26 | -111 | -5 | +0 | +4 | +27 | -8.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 597 | 115 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 153 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 193 | 237 | 256 | 494 | 64 | 253 | 24 | 4 | 206 | 26 | -58 | -3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -4.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAAAlbuquerque Isotopes · 141 PAwOBA .272 → .224 (−48)K% 25.5% → 34.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.53% | ÷0.960 | ×1.290 | — | — | 34.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.55% | ÷1.056 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 2.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.04% | ÷1.010 | ×0.900 | ×1.047 | ×1.033 | 25.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.075 | ×0.810 | ×1.047 | ×1.033 | 6.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.933 | ×0.810 | ×1.047 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.04% | ÷1.105 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 0.76% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 102, 2B 115, 3B 87, K 92, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.047.
Result: wOBA .272 → .224; ISO .083 → .061; BABIP .347 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AATulsa Drillers · 105 PAwOBA .295 → .244 (−51)K% 20.0% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.998 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.45% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.038 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 3.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 2.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.959 | ×1.012 | 17.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.33% | ÷1.087 | ×0.840 | ×0.959 | ×1.012 | 7.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.67% | ÷0.901 | ×0.940 | ×0.959 | ×1.012 | 2.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.894 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 99, 2B 117, 3B 80, K 100, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .295 → .244; ISO .115 → .095; BABIP .316 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Modesto Nuts · 22 PAwOBA .229 → .190 (−39)K% 18.2% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷0.977 | ×1.340 | — | — | 24.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.55% | ÷0.947 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 3.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 5.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.047 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.988 | 4.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 5.57% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 109, 3B 130, K 95, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .229 → .190; ISO .200 → .170; BABIP .125 → .104. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Modesto Nuts · 123 PAwOBA .208 → .185 (−23)K% 15.4% → 20.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.45% | ÷0.994 | ×1.340 | — | — | 20.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.69% | ÷1.037 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 3.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.07% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 3.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.18% | ÷0.994 | ×0.910 | ×1.032 | ×0.998 | 19.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.18% | ÷1.080 | ×0.820 | ×1.032 | ×0.998 | 0.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×1.032 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.831 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 66, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 99, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .208 → .185; ISO .010 → .008; BABIP .224 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAsheville Tourists · 119 PAwOBA .334 → .253 (−81)K% 19.3% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.33% | ÷0.940 | ×1.340 | — | — | 27.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.043 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 7.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.25% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×0.990 | 19.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.305 | ×0.820 | ×1.017 | ×0.990 | 6.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.017 | ×0.990 | 2.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.25% | ÷1.331 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 0.76% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 166, 1B 98, 2B 161, 3B 80, K 88, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .334 → .253; ISO .146 → .104; BABIP .342 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAsheville Tourists · 235 PAwOBA .288 → .250 (−38)K% 8.9% → 12.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 8.94% | ÷0.942 | ×1.340 | — | — | 12.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.11% | ÷1.055 | ×0.660 | — | — | 3.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.13% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 1.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.58% | ÷0.971 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | — | 18.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.079 | ×0.820 | ×1.022 | — | 5.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.53% | ÷1.061 | ×0.940 | ×1.022 | — | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.06% | ÷1.191 | ×0.820 | — | — | 0.73% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 94, 2B 116, 3B 112, K 88, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .288 → .250; ISO .105 → .082; BABIP .277 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 ROKCasper Ghosts · 131 PAwOBA .248 → .180 (−68)K% 21.4% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.37% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.985 | 2.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 18.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 3.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.985 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.985 | 0.78% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .248 → .180; ISO .081 → .055; BABIP .287 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 ROKCasper Ghosts · 164 PAwOBA .214 → .168 (−46)K% 14.0% → 20.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.02% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.995 | 2.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.22% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 17.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 1.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .214 → .168; ISO .033 → .025; BABIP .236 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .