Josh Phegley

PosC

B/TR/R

Born1988-02-12

Age (2027)39

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBLAST SEASON 2020

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2018	30	AAAMIL	139	.235/.336/.412	3	0	61	—	.184/.255/.304
2018	30	MLBOakland Athle…	102	.204/.260/.344	2	0	67	0.2
2019	31	MLBOakland Athle…	342	.239/.287/.411	12	0	95	1.0
2020	32	MLBCHC	18	.062/.167/.250	1	0	21	-0.1
2021	33	No MLB games played
2022	34	No MLB games played
2023	35	No MLB games played
2024	36	No MLB games played
2025	37	No MLB games played
2026	38	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2018-2020

Speed26

xwOBA15

Barrel%11

Avg EV10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2009	21	A	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	214	196	44	9	0	9	11	40	4	1	1	224	280	408	688	184	235	19	5	301	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	79	72	21	4	0	2	2	22	1	0	0	292	320	431	751	139	388	28	3	316	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	99	89	26	3	0	3	7	22	0	0	0	292	344	427	771	135	348	22	7	334	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	ROK	Bristol White Sox	—	18	15	3	1	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	200	333	267	600	67	273	22	11	290	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	90	79	19	4	0	2	8	18	2	0	0	241	326	367	693	127	288	20	9	312	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	394	362	88	21	2	7	25	61	4	1	2	243	299	370	669	127	273	15	6	299	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	421	394	105	22	1	6	20	60	4	3	0	266	309	373	682	107	299	14	5	304	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	213	204	42	7	0	4	5	41	0	2	0	206	225	299	524	93	236	19	2	229	41	-15	+0	+7	+8	+5	0.6
2013	25	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	258	231	73	18	1	15	15	38	7	1	1	316	375	597	973	281	317	15	6	414	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	38	37	8	2	0	3	0	11	0	0	0	216	216	514	730	297	208	29	0	303	89	-0	+0	-1	+9	+1	0.8
2014	26	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	467	419	115	30	4	23	31	72	8	0	1	274	336	530	866	255	278	15	7	370	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	243	225	56	16	1	9	14	51	3	0	0	249	302	449	751	200	283	21	6	329	113	+4	+0	+5	+4	+5	1.9
2016	28	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	86	78	20	6	0	1	5	13	2	0	0	256	318	372	689	115	292	15	6	308	95	-1	+0	-2	+2	+2	0.2
2016	28	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	23	19	6	1	0	0	4	6	0	0	0	316	435	368	803	53	462	26	17	374	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	161	149	30	11	0	3	9	26	2	0	1	201	256	336	592	134	223	16	6	265	66	-6	-0	+6	+3	+3	0.6
2017	29	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	34	29	9	2	0	1	2	5	2	0	0	310	394	483	877	172	333	15	6	381	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	102	93	19	7	0	2	6	27	1	0	0	204	260	344	604	140	258	26	6	266	67	-4	+0	-1	+4	+2	0.2
2018	30	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	139	119	28	6	3	3	15	31	3	0	0	235	336	412	748	176	287	22	11	331	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	342	314	75	18	0	12	15	63	6	0	1	239	287	411	697	172	258	18	4	303	95	-2	-0	-2	+6	+7	1.0
2020	32	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	18	16	1	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	62	167	250	417	188		17	6	195	21	-2	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1203	1116	251	67	1	35	55	235	15	2	2	225	271	381	651	156	251	20	5	286	80	-29	-0	+12	+38	+26	4.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2009	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	214	200	37	7	0	7	7	54	4	1	1	185	227	325	552	140	206	25	3	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	79	73	20	4	0	2	1	28	1	0	0	274	293	411	704	137	370	35	1	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	99	92	21	2	0	2	4	33	0	0	0	228	260	315	576	87	312	33	4	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	ROK MLE	Bristol White Sox	—	18	16	3	1	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	188	278	250	528	62	215	33	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	90	81	18	3	0	2	6	21	2	0	0	222	292	333	625	111	264	23	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	394	371	84	19	2	7	16	73	4	1	2	226	266	345	611	119	259	19	4	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	421	401	97	18	1	6	13	71	4	3	0	242	273	337	609	95	274	17	3	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	213	204	42	7	0	4	5	41	0	2	0	206	225	299	524	93	236	19	2	228	41	-15	+0	+7	+8	+5	0.6
2013	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	258	235	66	15	1	14	11	45	7	1	1	281	332	532	864	251	281	17	4	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	38	37	8	2	0	3	0	11	0	0	0	216	216	514	730	297	208	29	0	300	89	-0	+0	-1	+9	+1	0.8
2014	26	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	467	429	101	25	4	18	21	89	8	0	1	235	284	438	722	203	246	19	4	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	243	225	56	15	1	10	14	51	3	0	0	249	302	458	759	209	283	21	6	335	113	+4	+0	+5	+4	+5	1.9
2016	28	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	86	78	20	6	0	1	5	13	2	0	0	256	318	372	689	115	292	15	6	308	95	-1	+0	-2	+2	+2	0.2
2016	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	23	20	5	1	0	0	3	8	0	0	0	250	348	300	648	50	401	35	13	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	161	149	30	11	0	3	9	26	2	0	1	201	256	336	592	134	223	16	6	266	66	-6	-0	+6	+3	+3	0.6
2017	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	34	30	8	2	0	1	1	6	2	0	0	267	333	433	767	167	288	18	3	330	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	102	93	19	7	0	2	6	27	1	0	0	204	260	344	604	140	258	26	6	268	67	-4	+0	-1	+4	+2	0.2
2018	30	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	139	125	23	5	2	2	9	38	3	0	0	184	255	304	559	120	238	27	6	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	342	314	75	17	0	13	15	63	6	0	1	239	287	417	704	178	258	18	4	309	95	-2	-0	-2	+6	+7	1.0
2020	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	18	16	1	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	62	167	250	417	188		17	6	200	21	-2	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.1
2009	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	214	200	37	7	0	7	7	54	4	1	1	185	227	325	552	140	213	25	3	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	214	196	44	9	0	9	11	40	4	1	1	224	280	408	688	184	235	19	5	301	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	196	181	44	7	0	4	6	66	2	0	0	243	275	348	623	105	351	34	3	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	196	176	50	8	0	5	11	48	2	0	0	284	333	415	748	131	357	24	6	323	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	484	452	101	22	2	8	22	94	6	1	2	223	269	334	603	111	263	19	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	484	441	107	25	2	9	33	79	6	1	2	243	304	370	674	127	275	16	7	301	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	421	401	97	18	1	6	13	71	4	3	0	242	273	337	609	95	278	17	3	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	—	421	394	105	22	1	6	20	60	4	3	0	266	309	373	682	107	299	14	5	304	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	471	439	107	22	1	17	16	86	7	3	1	244	281	415	696	171	262	18	3	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	471	435	115	25	1	19	20	79	7	3	1	264	307	457	765	193	279	17	4	331	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	505	466	109	27	4	21	21	100	8	0	1	234	279	444	723	210	249	20	4	306	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	505	456	123	32	4	26	31	83	8	0	1	270	327	529	856	259	273	16	6	365	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	243	225	56	15	1	10	14	51	3	0	0	249	302	458	759	209	279	21	6	335	113	+4	+0	+5	+4	+5	1.9
2015	27	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	243	225	56	16	1	9	14	51	3	0	0	249	302	449	751	200	283	21	6	329	113	+4	+0	+5	+4	+5	1.9
2016	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	109	98	25	7	0	1	8	21	2	0	0	255	324	357	681	102	312	19	7	305	92	-1	+0	-2	+2	+2	0.2
2016	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	109	97	26	7	0	1	9	19	2	0	0	268	343	371	714	103	321	17	8	322	92	-1	+0	-2	+2	+2	0.2
2017	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	195	179	38	12	0	4	10	32	4	0	1	212	269	346	616	134	234	16	5	277	74	-6	-0	+6	+3	+4	0.7
2017	29	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	195	178	39	13	0	4	11	31	4	0	1	219	280	360	639	140	241	16	6	285	74	-6	-0	+6	+3	+4	0.7
2018	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	241	218	43	12	2	5	15	65	4	0	0	197	262	339	601	142	250	27	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	241	212	47	13	3	5	21	58	4	0	0	222	304	382	686	160	275	24	9	303	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	342	314	75	17	0	13	15	63	6	0	1	239	287	417	704	178	255	18	4	309	95	-2	-0	-2	+6	+7	1.0
2019	31	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	—	342	314	75	18	0	12	15	63	6	0	1	239	287	411	697	172	258	18	4	303	95	-2	-0	-2	+6	+7	1.0
2020	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	18	16	1	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	62	167	250	417	188		17	6	200	21	-2	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.1
2020	32	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	18	16	1	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	62	167	250	417	188		17	6	195	21	-2	+0	-0	+0	+0	-0.1
2009	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	—	214	201	37	7	0	7	7	54	4	1	1	184	227	323	551	139	206	25	3	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	196	186	44	7	0	4	6	66	2	0	0	237	275	339	614	102	326	34	3	265	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	484	453	101	22	2	8	22	94	6	1	2	223	269	333	602	110	260	19	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	421	401	97	18	1	6	13	71	4	3	0	242	273	337	609	95	274	17	3	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	471	445	107	22	1	17	16	86	7	3	1	240	281	409	690	169	261	18	3	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	505	471	109	27	4	21	21	100	8	0	1	231	279	439	718	208	243	20	4	306	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	243	224	56	15	1	10	14	51	3	0	0	250	302	460	761	210	283	21	6	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	109	98	25	7	0	1	8	21	2	0	0	255	324	357	681	102	315	19	7	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	195	179	38	12	0	4	10	32	4	0	1	212	269	346	616	134	234	16	5	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	241	220	43	12	2	5	15	65	4	0	0	195	262	336	598	141	246	27	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	342	318	75	17	0	13	15	63	6	0	1	236	287	412	699	176	258	18	4	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	32	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	18	16	1	0	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	62	167	250	417	188		17	6	200	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1203	1116	251	67	1	35	55	235	15	2	2	225	271	381	651	156	251	20	5	286	79	-29	-0	+12	+38	+26	4.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	603	136	36	1	19	30	127	8	1	1	226	271	383	655	158	252	20	5	286	79	-16	-0	+7	+20	+14	2.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3439	3189	733	166	11	97	148	706	51	8	7	230	275	380	655	150	262	21	4	285	79	-29	-0	+12	+38	+26	4.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	603	138	31	2	18	28	133	10	2	1	229	275	376	651	148	261	20	4	285	79	-16	-0	+7	+20	+14	2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2018 AAANashville Sounds · 139 PAwOBA .322 → .258 (−63)K% 22.3% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.30%	÷1.055	×1.290	—	—	27.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.35%	÷0.966	×0.710	—	×0.972	6.68%
HBP% /PA	2.16%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	2.06%
Singles /BIP	18.18%	÷0.986	×0.900	×0.978	×0.972	15.78%
Doubles /BIP	6.82%	÷0.937	×0.810	×0.978	×0.972	5.60%
Triples /BIP	3.41%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.978	×0.972	2.28%
Home runs /BIP	3.41%	÷0.988	×0.780	—	×0.972	2.62%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 97, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 111, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .322 → .258; ISO .176 → .135; BABIP .287 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANashville Sounds · 34 PAwOBA .382 → .330 (−52)K% 14.7% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.71%	÷1.003	×1.290	—	—	18.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷1.029	×0.710	—	×0.982	3.98%
HBP% /PA	5.88%	—	×0.980	—	×0.982	5.66%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷0.984	×0.900	—	×0.982	22.46%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.021	×0.810	—	×0.982	6.49%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷0.868	×0.780	—	×0.982	3.68%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .382 → .330; ISO .172 → .147; BABIP .333 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANashville Sounds · 23 PAwOBA .365 → .290 (−75)K% 26.1% → 33.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.09%	÷1.004	×1.290	—	—	33.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.39%	÷0.979	×0.710	—	×0.992	12.51%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	38.46%	÷1.035	×0.900	—	×0.992	33.19%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.898	×0.810	—	×0.992	6.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.015	×0.810	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.856	×0.780	—	×0.992	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 107, 2B 80, 3B 103, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .365 → .290; ISO .053 → .045; BABIP .462 → .401. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAACharlotte Knights · 467 PAwOBA .364 → .307 (−58)K% 15.4% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.42%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	18.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.42%	÷1.012	×0.690	—	×1.018	4.46%
HBP% /PA	1.71%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.64%
Singles /BIP	16.71%	÷0.966	×0.930	×0.950	×1.018	15.57%
Doubles /BIP	8.65%	÷0.977	×0.830	×0.950	×1.018	7.10%
Triples /BIP	1.15%	÷0.910	×0.970	×0.950	×1.018	1.19%
Home runs /BIP	6.63%	÷1.118	×0.840	—	×1.018	5.07%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 93, 2B 95, 3B 82, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .364 → .307; ISO .255 → .206; BABIP .278 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAACharlotte Knights · 258 PAwOBA .410 → .365 (−45)K% 14.7% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.73%	÷1.023	×1.200	—	—	17.28%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.81%	÷0.939	×0.690	—	×1.033	4.41%
HBP% /PA	2.71%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	2.63%
Singles /BIP	20.21%	÷1.004	×0.930	×0.966	×1.033	18.67%
Doubles /BIP	9.33%	÷1.006	×0.830	×0.966	×1.033	7.68%
Triples /BIP	0.52%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.966	×1.033	0.56%
Home runs /BIP	7.77%	÷0.972	×0.840	—	×1.033	6.94%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 105, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .410 → .365; ISO .281 → .250; BABIP .317 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAACharlotte Knights · 421 PAwOBA .297 → .266 (−31)K% 14.3% → 16.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.25%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	16.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.51%	÷1.047	×0.690	—	×1.048	3.12%
HBP% /PA	0.95%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.94%
Singles /BIP	22.75%	÷1.009	×0.930	×0.980	×1.048	21.54%
Doubles /BIP	6.59%	÷1.065	×0.830	×0.980	×1.048	5.27%
Triples /BIP	0.30%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.980	×1.048	0.33%
Home runs /BIP	1.80%	÷0.866	×0.840	—	×1.048	1.83%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 102, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 104, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .297 → .266; ISO .107 → .097; BABIP .299 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AABirmingham Barons · 394 PAwOBA .292 → .264 (−27)K% 15.5% → 18.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.48%	÷1.019	×1.220	—	—	18.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.09%	÷1.029	×0.680	—	×1.027	4.13%
HBP% /PA	1.02%	—	×0.840	—	×1.027	0.88%
Singles /BIP	19.27%	÷0.960	×0.920	×0.979	×1.027	18.58%
Doubles /BIP	6.98%	÷0.996	×0.910	×0.979	×1.027	6.41%
Triples /BIP	0.66%	÷0.937	×0.880	×0.979	×1.027	0.63%
Home runs /BIP	2.33%	÷0.880	×0.800	—	×1.027	2.17%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 92, 2B 99, 3B 87, K 104, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .292 → .264; ISO .127 → .118; BABIP .273 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAACharlotte Knights · 90 PAwOBA .304 → .264 (−40)K% 20.0% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.00%	÷1.049	×1.200	—	—	22.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.89%	÷0.965	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.67%
HBP% /PA	2.22%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	2.19%
Singles /BIP	21.31%	÷0.982	×0.930	×0.994	×1.050	21.05%
Doubles /BIP	6.56%	÷1.232	×0.830	×0.994	×1.050	4.61%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.994	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.28%	÷1.074	×0.840	—	×1.050	2.69%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 96, 2B 146, 3B 80, K 110, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .304 → .264; ISO .127 → .099; BABIP .288 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).