John Ryan Murphy

PosC

B/TR/R

Born1991-05-13

Age (2027)36

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

MLBLAST SEASON 2020

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2018	27	MLBARI	223	.202/.245/.375	9	0	66	1.2
2019	28	AAAATL	186	.228/.290/.444	10	0	55	—	.182/.226/.364
2019	28	MLBATL	70	.175/.246/.413	4	0	79	0.9
2020	29	MLBPIT	63	.172/.226/.207	0	0	21	-0.1
2021	30	No MLB games played
2022	31	No MLB games played
2023	32	No MLB games played
2024	33	No MLB games played
2025	34	No MLB games played
2026	35	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.0

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2018-2020

Barrel%63

Avg EV16

Speed13

xwOBA11

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2009	18	ROK	GCL Yankees	—	37	33	11	2	0	1	3	8	1	0	0	333	405	485	890	152	417	22	8	398	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	374	330	84	15	2	7	36	64	2	4	5	255	332	376	707	121	292	17	10	315	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	89	85	22	6	0	1	2	9	0	0	0	259	276	365	641	106	273	10	2	278	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	277	256	76	23	0	6	19	38	0	2	0	297	345	457	802	160	327	14	7	353	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	170	147	34	12	1	4	16	32	2	0	0	231	315	408	723	177	259	19	9	314	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+	Tampa Yankees	—	294	265	68	14	1	5	26	41	0	4	3	257	323	374	697	117	286	14	9	311	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	MLB	New York Yankees	—	27	26	4	1	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	154	185	192	377	38	235	33	4	174	4	-3	+0	+3	+9	+1	1.0
2013	22	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	257	230	62	19	0	6	23	41	3	0	1	270	344	430	774	161	304	16	9	345	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	211	183	49	10	0	6	24	32	1	1	0	268	356	421	777	153	293	15	11	344	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	MLB	New York Yankees	—	85	81	23	4	0	1	4	22	0	0	0	284	318	370	688	86	379	26	5	309	95	-1	+0	+2	+5	+2	0.9
2014	23	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	196	179	44	9	0	6	13	42	0	0	0	246	297	397	694	151	284	21	7	303	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB	New York Yankees	—	172	155	43	9	1	3	12	43	1	0	0	277	333	406	740	129	357	25	7	324	104	+1	+0	+2	+3	+4	1.0
2016	25	MLB	Minnesota Twins	—	90	82	12	3	0	1	5	19	0	0	0	146	195	220	415	73	175	21	6	185	11	-9	+0	+3	+7	+2	0.2
2016	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	290	263	62	14	0	3	21	51	0	0	0	236	292	323	615	87	274	18	7	274	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA	Reno Aces	—	293	261	62	9	0	6	29	43	0	0	0	238	314	341	655	103	262	15	10	296	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	223	208	42	9	0	9	11	71	1	0	0	202	245	375	620	173	256	32	5	271	66	-9	+0	+12	+4	+5	1.2
2019	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	70	63	11	3	0	4	6	28	0	0	0	175	246	413	659	238	226	40	9	285	79	-2	+0	+4	+5	+2	0.9
2019	28	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	186	171	39	7	0	10	14	47	1	0	0	228	290	444	735	216	254	25	8	324	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	63	58	10	2	0	0	4	28	0	0	0	172	226	207	433	34	333	44	6	200	21	-6	+0	+2	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	730	673	145	31	1	18	43	220	2	0	0	215	265	345	609	129	289	30	6	269	68	-28	+0	+29	+33	+16	5.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2009	18	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees	—	37	34	8	1	0	1	2	12	1	0	0	235	297	353	650	118	338	32	5	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	374	340	77	13	2	7	26	82	2	4	5	226	285	338	624	112	263	22	7	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	—	89	85	21	6	0	1	2	12	0	0	0	247	264	353	617	106	258	13	2	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	277	264	65	19	0	4	11	51	0	2	0	246	276	364	640	117	287	18	4	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	170	151	31	10	1	3	12	39	2	0	0	205	273	344	617	139	239	23	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	Tampa Yankees	—	294	274	59	12	1	5	17	59	0	4	3	215	261	321	582	106	253	20	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	27	26	4	1	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	154	185	192	377	38	235	33	4	175	4	-3	+0	+3	+9	+1	1.0
2013	22	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	257	237	57	16	0	5	16	49	3	0	1	241	297	371	668	131	281	19	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	211	190	48	8	0	5	17	39	1	1	0	253	317	374	691	121	279	18	8	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	85	81	23	4	0	1	4	22	0	0	0	284	318	370	688	86	379	26	5	309	95	-1	+0	+2	+5	+2	0.9
2014	23	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	196	182	41	8	0	5	10	52	0	0	0	225	266	352	617	126	268	27	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	172	155	43	9	1	3	12	43	1	0	0	277	333	406	740	129	357	25	7	322	104	+1	+0	+2	+3	+4	1.0
2016	25	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	—	90	82	12	3	0	1	5	19	0	0	0	146	195	220	415	73	175	21	6	185	11	-9	+0	+3	+7	+2	0.2
2016	25	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	290	269	57	10	0	3	15	61	0	0	0	212	254	283	536	71	248	21	5	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	293	270	53	7	0	4	20	60	0	0	0	196	252	267	518	70	230	20	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	223	209	42	8	0	10	10	71	1	0	0	201	241	383	624	182	256	32	4	266	66	-9	+0	+12	+4	+5	1.2
2019	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	70	63	11	3	0	4	6	28	0	0	0	175	246	413	659	238	226	40	9	285	79	-2	+0	+4	+5	+2	0.9
2019	28	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	186	176	32	5	0	9	9	60	1	0	0	182	226	364	589	182	212	32	5	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	63	58	10	2	0	0	4	28	0	0	0	172	226	207	433	34	333	44	6	199	21	-6	+0	+2	+1	+1	-0.1
2009	18	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees	—	37	34	8	1	0	1	2	12	1	0	0	235	297	353	650	118	333	32	5	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	18	ROK RAW	GCL Yankees	—	37	33	11	2	0	1	3	8	1	0	0	333	405	485	890	152	417	22	8	398	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	374	340	77	13	2	7	26	82	2	4	5	226	285	338	624	112	273	22	7	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	—	374	330	84	15	2	7	36	64	2	4	5	255	332	376	707	121	292	17	10	315	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	366	349	85	24	0	5	13	64	0	2	0	244	271	355	626	112	282	17	4	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	366	341	98	29	0	7	21	47	0	2	0	287	329	434	763	147	313	13	6	335	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	464	424	90	22	2	8	30	99	2	4	3	212	268	330	598	118	254	21	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	464	412	102	26	2	9	42	73	2	4	3	248	320	386	706	138	277	16	9	312	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	495	454	109	24	0	11	33	96	4	1	1	240	297	366	663	126	280	19	7	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	495	439	115	30	0	12	48	82	4	1	1	262	340	412	752	150	296	17	10	335	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	281	263	64	12	0	6	14	74	0	0	0	243	282	357	639	114	312	26	5	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	281	260	67	13	0	7	17	64	0	0	0	258	303	388	692	131	312	23	6	305	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	172	155	43	9	1	3	12	43	1	0	0	277	333	406	740	129	357	25	7	322	104	+1	+0	+2	+3	+4	1.0
2015	24	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	—	172	155	43	9	1	3	12	43	1	0	0	277	333	406	740	129	357	25	7	324	104	+1	+0	+2	+3	+4	1.0
2016	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	380	351	69	13	0	4	20	80	0	0	0	197	240	268	508	71	237	21	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	380	345	74	17	0	4	26	70	0	0	0	214	270	299	568	84	252	18	7	253	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	293	270	53	7	0	4	20	60	0	0	0	196	252	267	518	70	236	20	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	293	261	62	9	0	6	29	43	0	0	0	238	314	341	655	103	262	15	10	296	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	223	209	42	8	0	10	10	71	1	0	0	201	241	383	624	182	248	32	4	266	66	-9	+0	+12	+4	+5	1.2
2018	27	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	223	208	42	9	0	9	11	71	1	0	0	202	245	375	620	173	256	32	5	271	66	-9	+0	+12	+4	+5	1.2
2019	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	256	239	43	8	0	13	15	88	1	0	0	180	231	377	608	197	217	34	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	256	234	50	10	0	14	20	75	1	0	0	214	278	436	714	222	248	29	8	313	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	63	58	10	2	0	0	4	28	0	0	0	172	226	207	433	34	333	44	6	199	21	-6	+0	+2	+1	+1	-0.1
2020	29	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	63	58	10	2	0	0	4	28	0	0	0	172	226	207	433	34	333	44	6	200	21	-6	+0	+2	+1	+1	-0.1
2009	18	ROK MLE	GCL Yankees	—	37	34	8	1	0	1	2	12	1	0	0	235	297	353	650	118	338	32	5	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	374	343	77	13	2	7	26	82	2	4	5	224	285	335	621	111	263	22	7	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	366	350	85	24	0	5	13	64	0	2	0	243	271	354	625	111	280	17	4	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	464	429	90	22	2	8	30	99	2	4	3	210	268	326	594	117	248	21	6	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	495	455	109	24	0	11	33	96	4	1	1	240	297	365	662	125	278	19	7	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	281	265	64	12	0	6	14	74	0	0	0	242	282	355	636	113	302	26	5	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	172	157	43	9	1	3	12	43	1	0	0	274	333	401	735	127	357	25	7	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	380	357	69	13	0	4	20	80	0	0	0	193	240	263	503	70	231	21	5	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	293	271	53	7	0	4	20	60	0	0	0	196	252	266	517	70	230	20	7	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	223	210	42	8	0	10	10	71	1	0	0	200	241	381	622	181	256	32	4	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	256	238	43	8	0	13	15	88	1	0	0	181	231	378	610	197	216	34	6	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	—	63	59	10	2	0	0	4	28	0	0	0	169	226	203	429	34	333	44	6	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	730	673	145	31	1	18	43	220	2	0	0	215	265	345	609	129	289	30	6	269	65	-28	+0	+29	+33	+16	5.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	599	130	28	1	16	38	196	2	0	0	217	266	347	613	130	292	30	6	269	65	-25	+0	+26	+30	+14	4.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3404	3146	693	143	5	72	199	797	12	11	9	220	269	338	607	117	269	23	6	265	65	-28	+0	+29	+33	+16	5.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	601	132	27	1	14	38	152	2	2	2	220	268	338	606	118	268	23	6	265	65	-25	+0	+26	+30	+14	4.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 186 PAwOBA .312 → .250 (−63)K% 25.3% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.27%	÷0.948	×1.200	—	—	31.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.99%	÷1.047	×0.690	—	×0.992	4.57%
HBP% /PA	0.54%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.50%
Singles /BIP	17.74%	÷1.038	×0.930	×0.950	×0.992	14.99%
Doubles /BIP	5.65%	÷0.963	×0.830	×0.950	×0.992	4.59%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.950	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.06%	÷0.899	×0.840	—	×0.992	7.47%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 108, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 90, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .312 → .250; ISO .216 → .185; BABIP .254 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAAReno Aces · 293 PAwOBA .289 → .233 (−56)K% 14.7% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.68%	÷0.919	×1.290	—	—	20.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.56%	÷1.007	×0.710	—	×1.018	6.86%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.56%	÷0.992	×0.900	×0.987	×1.018	19.66%
Doubles /BIP	4.13%	÷1.089	×0.810	×0.987	×1.018	3.08%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.987	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.75%	÷1.044	×0.780	—	×1.018	2.09%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 130, K 84, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .289 → .233; ISO .103 → .076; BABIP .262 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAARochester Red Wings · 290 PAwOBA .273 → .236 (−37)K% 17.6% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.59%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	20.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.24%	÷0.968	×0.690	—	×1.033	5.33%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.23%	÷0.953	×0.930	×0.965	×1.033	20.67%
Doubles /BIP	6.60%	÷1.224	×0.830	×0.965	×1.033	4.47%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.971	×0.970	×0.965	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.42%	÷0.951	×0.840	—	×1.033	1.29%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 90, 2B 145, 3B 94, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .273 → .236; ISO .087 → .068; BABIP .274 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 196 PAwOBA .299 → .262 (−37)K% 21.4% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.43%	÷0.970	×1.200	—	—	26.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.63%	÷0.985	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.88%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.17%	÷0.984	×0.930	×0.974	×1.050	20.46%
Doubles /BIP	6.57%	÷0.936	×0.830	×0.974	×1.050	5.96%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.954	×0.970	×0.974	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.38%	÷1.067	×0.840	—	×1.050	3.62%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 97, 2B 87, 3B 91, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .299 → .262; ISO .151 → .126; BABIP .284 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 257 PAwOBA .336 → .296 (−40)K% 16.0% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.95%	÷1.010	×1.200	—	—	18.95%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.56%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.11%
HBP% /PA	1.17%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.15%
Singles /BIP	19.58%	÷0.971	×0.930	×0.972	×1.050	19.12%
Doubles /BIP	10.05%	÷1.026	×0.830	×0.972	×1.050	8.30%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.972	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.17%	÷0.976	×0.840	—	×1.050	2.87%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 94, 2B 105, 3B 100, K 102, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.972.

Result: wOBA .336 → .296; ISO .161 → .139; BABIP .304 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AATrenton Thunder · 211 PAwOBA .339 → .298 (−41)K% 15.2% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.17%	÷1.003	×1.220	—	—	18.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.37%	÷1.055	×0.700	—	×1.042	7.87%
HBP% /PA	0.47%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.42%
Singles /BIP	21.85%	÷0.996	×0.970	×1.008	×1.042	22.36%
Doubles /BIP	6.62%	÷1.204	×0.860	×1.008	×1.042	4.97%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.140	×0.950	×1.008	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.97%	÷0.979	×0.780	—	×1.042	3.30%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 141, 3B 128, K 101, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .339 → .298; ISO .153 → .126; BABIP .293 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 A+Tampa Yankees · 294 PAwOBA .304 → .252 (−53)K% 13.9% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.95%	÷0.984	×1.420	—	—	20.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.84%	÷1.160	×0.750	—	×1.027	5.87%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×1.027	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.050	×0.920	×0.978	×1.027	18.86%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.081	×0.960	×0.978	×1.027	5.57%
Triples /BIP	0.45%	÷0.900	×0.810	×0.978	×1.027	0.40%
Home runs /BIP	2.23%	÷0.949	×0.880	—	×1.027	2.13%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 110, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 97, BB 132 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .304 → .252; ISO .117 → .105; BABIP .286 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AATrenton Thunder · 170 PAwOBA .315 → .278 (−37)K% 18.8% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.82%	÷0.990	×1.220	—	—	23.20%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.41%	÷0.955	×0.700	—	×1.050	7.24%
HBP% /PA	1.18%	—	×0.850	—	×1.050	1.05%
Singles /BIP	14.78%	÷0.980	×0.970	×0.961	×1.050	14.75%
Doubles /BIP	10.43%	÷1.058	×0.860	×0.961	×1.050	8.55%
Triples /BIP	0.87%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.961	×1.050	0.93%
Home runs /BIP	3.48%	÷0.975	×0.780	—	×1.050	2.92%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 96, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 98, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .315 → .278; ISO .177 → .152; BABIP .259 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).