Shelby Miller

P Iowa Cubs

Age 36 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027 ILInjured 60-Day (D60)

Overview

AAARPD6040-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	33	MIX2 levels	53	1	58	4.34	4.05	22.1%	6.0%	0.3	K 21.8% · BB 5.8% · FIP 4.29
2025	34	MIX2 levels	49	0	47	2.68	2.76	30.2%	5.8%	1.0	K 29.0% · BB 5.9% · FIP 2.80
2026	35	MIX2 levels	13	0	11	7.59	3.19	36.0%	16.0%	—	K 36.0% · BB 16.0% · FIP 3.18
2027PROJ	36	MLBCHC	19	0	20	3.85	3.88	26.2%	7.5%	0.2
2028PROJ	37	MLBCHC	27	0	28	4.04	4.21	25.1%	8.2%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

Whiff%90

K%87

xwOBA vs71

FB Velo60

CompsSeunghwan Oh (age 36) · Tony Barnette (age 34) · Salvador Valdez (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10294vR 85

ERA3.85

FIP3.88

K%26.2%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%18.6%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p9031.7%

p8729.0%

xwOBA vs

p710.292

FB+6.6 (62%)

SL-0.8 (9%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2012	21	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	6	1	14	54	16	4	0	17%	2.3	29.6%	7.4%	22.2%	0.0%	1.32	1.54	+0.5
2012	21	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	6	1	14	54	16	4	0	17%	2.3	29.6%	7.4%	22.2%	0.0%	1.32	1.64	+0.5
2013	22	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	31	31	173	722	169	57	20	100%	5.6	23.4%	7.9%	15.5%	3.0%	3.06	3.76	+2.4
2013	22	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	31	31	173	722	169	57	20	100%	5.6	23.4%	7.9%	15.5%	2.8%	3.06	3.64	+2.7
2014	23	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	32	31	183	764	127	69	22	97%	5.7	16.6%	9.0%	7.6%	3.1%	3.74	4.54	+0.8
2014	23	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	32	31	183	764	127	69	22	97%	5.7	16.6%	9.0%	7.6%	2.9%	3.74	4.41	+1.1
2015	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	33	33	205	860	171	65	13	100%	6.2	19.9%	7.6%	12.3%	1.6%	3.02	3.28	+4.1
2015	24	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	33	33	205	860	171	65	13	100%	6.2	19.9%	7.6%	12.3%	1.5%	3.02	3.21	+4.3
2016	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	30	164	715	144	50	18	100%	5.5	17.7%	7.4%	10.3%	2.7%	5.06	4.01	+1.7
2016	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	30	164	715	144	50	18	100%	5.5	20.1%	7.0%	13.1%	2.5%	5.06	3.69	+2.4
2017	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	4	4	22	99	20	11	1	100%	5.5	20.2%	11.1%	9.1%	1.0%	4.09	3.35	+0.4
2017	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	4	4	22	99	20	11	1	100%	5.5	20.2%	11.1%	9.1%	1.0%	4.09	3.37	+0.4
2018	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	9	8	35	160	47	14	6	89%	3.9	24.1%	10.1%	13.9%	6.7%	7.39	6.03	-0.4
2018	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	9	8	35	160	47	14	6	89%	3.9	29.4%	8.8%	20.6%	3.8%	7.39	3.84	+0.4
2019	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	16	77	360	66	47	10	59%	2.8	15.3%	14.4%	0.9%	2.8%	6.69	5.18	-0.2
2019	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	16	77	360	66	47	10	59%	2.8	18.3%	13.1%	5.3%	2.8%	6.69	4.91	-0.0
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	4	37	160	45	20	5	15%	1.4	25.4%	12.8%	12.6%	3.3%	5.11	4.38	+0.1
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	4	37	160	45	20	5	15%	1.4	28.1%	12.5%	15.6%	3.1%	5.11	4.05	+0.2
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	60	251	83	23	4	2%	1.3	27.5%	10.0%	17.5%	2.0%	3.28	3.15	+1.0
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	60	251	83	23	4	2%	1.3	33.1%	9.2%	23.9%	1.6%	3.28	2.35	+1.6
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	4	49	198	57	21	5	9%	1.1	25.8%	10.4%	15.3%	1.8%	2.40	3.21	+0.8
2023	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	4	49	198	57	21	5	9%	1.1	28.8%	10.6%	18.2%	2.5%	2.40	3.39	+0.7
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	58	235	52	14	9	2%	1.1	21.8%	5.8%	16.0%	4.2%	4.34	4.29	+0.2
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	1	58	235	52	14	9	2%	1.1	21.8%	5.8%	16.0%	4.2%	4.34	4.29	+0.2
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	1	58	235	52	14	9	2%	1.1	22.1%	6.0%	16.2%	3.8%	4.34	4.05	+0.3
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	47	189	57	11	5	0%	1.0	29.0%	5.9%	23.1%	2.6%	2.68	2.80	+1.0
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	47	189	57	11	5	0%	1.0	29.0%	5.9%	23.1%	2.6%	2.68	2.80	+1.0
2025	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	47	189	57	11	5	0%	1.0	30.2%	5.8%	24.3%	2.6%	2.68	2.76	+1.0
2026	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	0	11	50	18	8	1	0%	0.8	36.0%	16.0%	20.0%	2.0%	7.59	3.18	—
2026	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	0	11	50	18	8	1	0%	0.8	36.0%	16.0%	20.0%	2.0%	7.59	3.18	—
2026	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	0	11	50	18	8	1	0%	0.8	36.0%	16.0%	20.0%	2.0%	7.59	3.19	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			302	133	922	3924	789	335	103	44%	3.1	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	2.6%	4.04	3.93	+6.8
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	CHC	19	0	20	84	22	6	3	0%	1.1	26.2%	7.5%	18.6%	3.0%	3.85	3.88	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	CHC	27	0	28	120	30	10	4	0%	1.1	25.1%	8.2%	16.9%	3.4%	4.11	4.28	+0.1
2028	37	MLB CTX	CHC	27	0	28	118	30	10	4	0%	1.0	25.1%	8.2%	16.9%	3.3%	4.04	4.21	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		329	133	950	4044	819	345	107	40%	2.9	20.3%	8.5%	11.7%	2.6%	4.04	3.92	+7.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		69	28	200	851	172	73	23	40%	2.9	20.3%	8.5%	11.7%	2.6%	4.04	3.92	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		404	164	1135	4817	1008	426	130	41%	2.8	20.9%	8.8%	12.1%	2.7%	3.97	3.93	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	29	200	849	178	75	23	41%	2.8	20.9%	8.8%	12.1%	2.7%	3.97	3.93	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shelby Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.88	26.2%	7.5%	3.0%	—	4.28	25.1%	16.9%	28	+0.40	—	—	—
Seunghwan Oh R 2018 · 2.83 FIP	36	SU	2.83	28.8%	5.8%	2.6%	.257	5.75	18.2%	11.4%	18	+2.92	1.87	226	50
Tony Barnette R 2018 · 2.61 FIP	34	SU	2.61	25.0%	4.8%	1.8%	.239	—	—	—	—	—	2.61	144	49
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	46
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	46
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	46
Matt Bush R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	36	SU	3.73	30.3%	6.6%	4.3%	.224	3.79	26.2%	17.5%	36	+0.06	2.87	249	44
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	44
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	43
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	43
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	43
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	41
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2003 · 3.30 FIP	35	SU	3.30	19.3%	8.7%	1.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	223	41
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	39
Peter Moylan R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	36	SU	3.11	18.4%	8.2%	0.9%	.259	3.84	18.2%	9.1%	145	+0.73	2.54	431	39
Roy Corcoran R 2015 · 2.87 FIP	35	SU	2.87	17.7%	8.2%	0.4%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	129	38
Buddy Carlyle R 2014 · 2.57 FIP	36	SU	2.57	23.5%	4.2%	1.7%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	2.57	274	38
Kazuhisa Makita R 2019 · 2.81 FIP	34	SU	2.81	18.9%	3.7%	1.5%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	132	37
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	36	SP-	4.20	15.8%	5.6%	3.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	567	36
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	35
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	33

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	88	20.4%	9.1%	1.03	4.04
Don Aase ('77-'90, 12 WAR*)	5.5	92	20.7%*	9.6%*	0.94*	4.14*
Pete Appleton ('27-'45, 5 WAR*)	5.7	88	19.1%*	8.8%*	1.10*	4.11*
Neil Allen ('79-'89, 6 WAR*)	4.9	99	19.8%*	9.8%*	0.93*	4.33*
Tom Gorzelanny ('16)	4.4	88	18.4%	10.0%	1.00	4.40
Darren Dreifort ('04)	4.4	97	21.2%	10.3%	0.93	4.36
Randall Delgado ('18)	2.7	78	20.1%	8.8%	1.11	4.10