Aaron Loup projections, WAR, contract

Aaron Loup P Los Angeles Angels

Age 38 LHP 5'11" / 210 lbs MLB peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98106vR 114

ERA4.40

FIP4.36

K%21.7%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%13.0%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.2

Whiff%

p1820.8%

p3219.5%

xwOBA vs

p420.321

SL-0.5

CT-3.5

FB-5.0

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2012	24	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	33	0	31	117	21	2	0	0%	0.9	17.9%	1.7%	16.2%	0.0%	2.64	1.80	+1.0
2012	24	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	33	0	31	117	21	2	0	0%	0.9	17.9%	1.7%	16.2%	0.0%	2.64	1.93	+1.0
2013	25	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	64	0	69	282	53	9	5	0%	1.1	18.8%	3.2%	15.6%	1.8%	2.47	2.89	+1.4
2013	25	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	64	0	69	282	53	9	5	0%	1.1	18.8%	3.2%	15.6%	1.8%	2.47	2.90	+1.4
2014	26	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	71	0	69	283	56	25	4	0%	1.0	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	1.4%	3.15	3.32	+1.0
2014	26	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	71	0	69	283	56	25	4	0%	1.0	19.8%	8.8%	11.0%	1.4%	3.15	3.32	+1.0
2015	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	0	48	216	51	11	6	0%	0.7	24.7%	3.8%	21.0%	3.2%	4.47	3.26	+0.7
2015	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	0	48	216	51	11	6	0%	0.7	23.6%	5.1%	18.5%	2.8%	4.47	3.29	+0.7
2016	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	44	0	36	156	43	11	2	0%	0.8	26.5%	5.0%	21.5%	1.4%	4.00	2.26	+1.0
2016	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	44	0	36	156	43	11	2	0%	0.8	27.6%	7.1%	20.5%	1.3%	4.00	2.35	+0.9
2017	29	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	70	0	58	265	64	24	4	0%	0.8	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	1.5%	3.75	3.04	+1.0
2017	29	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	70	0	58	265	64	24	4	0%	0.8	24.2%	9.1%	15.1%	1.5%	3.75	3.03	+1.0
2018	30	MLB MLE	Philadelphia Phillies	59	0	40	183	44	14	4	0%	0.7	24.0%	7.7%	16.4%	2.0%	4.54	3.16	+0.7
2018	30	MLB RAW	Philadelphia Phillies	59	0	40	183	44	14	4	0%	0.7	24.0%	7.7%	16.4%	2.2%	4.54	3.25	+0.6
2019	31	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	4	0	3	14	5	1	0	0%	0.8	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	+0.1
2019	31	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	4	0	3	14	5	1	0	0%	0.8	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.00	+0.1
2020	32	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	24	0	25	96	22	4	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	4.2%	18.8%	3.2%	2.52	3.46	+0.3
2020	32	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	24	0	25	96	22	4	3	0%	1.0	22.9%	4.2%	18.8%	3.1%	2.52	3.38	+0.3
2021	33	MLB MLE	New York Mets	65	2	57	218	57	16	1	3%	0.9	26.1%	7.3%	18.8%	0.5%	0.95	2.07	+1.7
2021	33	MLB RAW	New York Mets	65	2	57	218	57	16	1	3%	0.9	26.1%	7.3%	18.8%	0.5%	0.95	2.16	+1.6
2022	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	65	0	59	260	52	19	4	0%	0.9	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	1.5%	3.84	3.16	+1.0
2022	34	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	65	0	59	260	52	19	4	0%	0.9	20.0%	7.3%	12.7%	1.5%	3.84	3.19	+1.0
2023	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	55	0	49	231	45	16	6	0%	0.9	19.5%	6.9%	12.6%	2.5%	6.10	3.73	+0.5
2023	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	55	0	49	231	45	16	6	0%	0.9	19.5%	6.9%	12.6%	2.5%	6.10	3.73	+0.5
2023	35	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	55	0	49	231	45	16	6	0%	0.9	19.5%	6.9%	12.6%	2.6%	6.10	3.84	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			591	2	515	2197	480	141	39	0%	0.9	21.8%	6.4%	15.4%	1.8%	3.43	3.04	+9.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	38	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	8.7%	13.0%	2.9%	4.40	4.36	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	LAA	43	0	45	190	39	18	6	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.4%	4.64	4.79	-0.1
2028	40	MLB MLE	LAA	37	0	39	164	32	17	6	0%	1.0	19.4%	10.1%	9.3%	3.8%	4.99	5.23	-0.3
2027	39	MLB CTX	LAA	43	0	45	190	39	18	6	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.4%	4.64	4.79	-0.1
2028	40	MLB CTX	LAA	37	0	39	165	32	17	6	0%	1.1	19.4%	10.1%	9.3%	3.8%	4.99	5.23	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		671	2	599	2551	551	175	52	0%	0.9	21.6%	6.9%	14.7%	2.0%	3.62	3.26	+9.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		224	1	200	852	184	58	17	0%	0.9	21.6%	6.9%	14.7%	2.0%	3.62	3.26	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		619	2	543	2321	514	146	40	0%	0.9	22.1%	6.3%	15.8%	1.7%	3.43	2.97	+8.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		228	1	200	855	189	54	15	0%	0.9	22.1%	6.3%	15.8%	1.7%	3.43	2.97	+2.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aaron Loup (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	21.7%	8.7%	2.9%	—	4.99	20.0%	10.3%	84	+0.63	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	71
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	38
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	37
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	37
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	35
Billy Taylor R 2000 · 4.53 FIP	38	SU	4.53	21.0%	11.3%	3.2%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	323	34
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	34
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	33
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	31
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	29
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	28
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	28
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	14
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	11

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	50	21.6%	7.8%	0.81	3.68
Joe Smith ('22)	3.8	51	21.1%	8.1%	0.78	3.14
Matt Thornton ('16)	3.3	55	22.9%	9.0%	0.71	3.41
Drew Storen ('17)	2.2	55	22.6%	7.2%	0.78	3.45
Jerry Blevins ('19)	2.5	45	24.2%	9.3%	0.91	3.54
Alex Colomé ('23)	2.7	60	21.0%	8.3%	0.83	3.36
Heath Bell ('14)	3.1	63	24.2%	8.1%	0.69	3.49