Matt Koch

P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 36 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	31	MIX2 levels	42	0	43	3.59	3.97	30.3%	7.4%	0.3	K 28.2% · BB 8.1% · FIP 3.77
2023	32	MIX2 levels	68	2	73	6.14	4.74	19.0%	6.2%	-0.2	K 17.5% · BB 5.9% · FIP 4.67
2024	33	MIX2 levels	51	0	54	5.30	4.77	15.4%	3.3%	-0.1	K 13.6% · BB 2.6% · FIP 4.57
2027PROJ	36	MLBCOL	57	0	60	4.68	4.74	19.8%	8.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ1% MLB	37	MLBCOL	1	0	1	4.96	5.15	18.7%	9.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ0% MLB	38	MLBCOL	—	—	0	5.33	5.58	17.5%	10.2%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo40

xwOBA vs39

Whiff%30

K%12

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Salvador Valdez (age 36) · Daniel Guerrero (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.68

FIP4.74

K%19.8%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%10.9%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p3022.5%

p1216.6%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

CT (57%)

SL-0.6 (13%)

FB-1.9 (30%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	24	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	36	9	96	396	61	18	5	25%	2.7	12.5%	5.0%	7.5%	1.4%	3.20	3.44	—
2015	24	AA RAW	Mobile BayBears	36	9	96	396	61	18	5	25%	2.7	15.4%	4.5%	10.9%	1.3%	3.20	3.07	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	23	139	582	84	22	11	82%	5.0	12.3%	4.0%	8.3%	1.9%	3.81	3.63	+2.1
2016	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	23	139	582	84	22	11	82%	5.0	14.4%	3.8%	10.7%	1.9%	3.81	3.39	+2.6
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	10	45	219	25	14	11	91%	4.1	10.2%	6.3%	3.9%	5.4%	9.00	5.98	-0.5
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	10	45	219	25	14	11	91%	4.1	11.4%	6.4%	5.0%	5.0%	9.00	6.10	-0.6
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	25	141	591	81	33	30	83%	4.7	13.1%	5.7%	7.4%	5.4%	4.85	5.66	-1.2
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	25	141	591	81	33	30	83%	4.7	13.7%	5.6%	8.1%	5.1%	4.85	5.42	-0.8
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	17	121	560	90	34	29	57%	4.0	14.3%	6.3%	8.0%	5.3%	7.68	5.62	-1.0
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	17	121	560	90	34	29	57%	4.0	16.1%	6.1%	10.0%	5.2%	7.68	5.58	-0.9
2021	30	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	34	4	63	276	52	29	11	12%	1.9	16.6%	11.0%	5.5%	4.2%	5.83	5.42	—
2021	30	AAA RAW	Columbus Clippers	34	4	63	276	52	29	11	12%	1.9	18.8%	10.5%	8.3%	4.0%	5.83	5.09	—
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	0	43	175	53	13	8	0%	1.0	28.2%	8.1%	20.1%	3.7%	3.59	3.77	+0.4
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	0	43	175	53	13	8	0%	1.0	30.3%	7.4%	22.9%	4.6%	3.59	3.97	+0.3
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	2	73	321	61	20	14	3%	1.1	17.5%	5.9%	11.6%	4.2%	6.14	4.67	-0.1
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	2	73	321	61	20	14	3%	1.1	19.0%	6.2%	12.8%	4.4%	6.14	4.74	-0.2
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	54	246	38	8	11	0%	1.1	13.6%	2.6%	10.9%	4.2%	5.30	4.57	-0.0
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	0	54	246	38	8	11	0%	1.1	13.6%	2.6%	10.9%	4.2%	5.30	4.57	-0.0
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	0	54	246	38	8	11	0%	1.1	15.4%	3.3%	12.2%	4.5%	5.30	4.77	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			81	17	169	715	99	41	38	21%	2.1	13.8%	5.7%	8.1%	5.3%	5.18	5.58	-2.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	COL	57	0	60	253	50	22	8	0%	1.1	19.8%	8.8%	10.9%	3.3%	4.68	4.74	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	COL	50	0	52	221	41	21	8	0%	1.0	18.7%	9.5%	9.2%	3.7%	4.96	5.15	-0.3
2029	38	MLB MLE	COL	43	0	45	190	33	19	8	0%	1.0	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	4.2%	5.33	5.58	-0.5
2028	37	MLB CTX	COL	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	18.7%	9.5%	9.2%	3.7%	4.96	5.15	-0.0
2029	38	MLB CTX	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	4.2%	5.33	5.58	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		81	17	169	717	99	41	38	21%	2.1	13.9%	5.7%	8.1%	5.3%	5.18	5.57	-2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		96	20	200	848	117	48	45	21%	2.1	13.9%	5.7%	8.1%	5.3%	5.18	5.57	-2.4
Career	—	MLE		330	90	775	3366	486	196	132	27%	2.3	14.4%	5.8%	8.6%	3.9%	5.30	4.77	-2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		85	23	200	868	125	51	34	27%	2.3	14.4%	5.8%	8.6%	3.9%	5.30	4.77	-2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Koch (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.74	19.8%	8.8%	3.3%	—	5.35	18.2%	8.3%	97	+0.61	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	73
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	68
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	66
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	63
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	62
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	61
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	61
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	60
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	59
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	59
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	59
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	59
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	58
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	57
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	56
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	55
Pete Walker R 2005 · 4.79 FIP	36	SU	4.79	12.0%	9.2%	2.8%	.261	4.45	19.6%	11.6%	30	-0.34	4.45	327	55
Jay Jackson R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	36	SU	5.31	25.4%	7.9%	6.1%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	261	51
Leo Rosales R 2017 · 4.24 FIP	36	SU	4.24	7.8%	8.2%	1.4%	.203	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	130	49
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	47

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	54	16.3%	7.6%	1.75	4.99
Chuck Hartenstein ('66-'77, -1 WAR*)	1.5	59	13.7%*	7.2%*	1.50*	5.28*
Ken MacKenzie ('60-'65, -3 WAR*)	1.0	69	20.1%*	7.3%*	1.83*	5.50*
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69