Jeff Kobernus
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 26 | AAA/AA/A+/A4 orgs | 295 | .264/.349/.360 | 3 | 24 | 69 | — | .238/.298/.324 |
| 2015 | 27 | A+/ROK2 orgs | 264 | .225/.291/.267 | 1 | 12 | 27 | — | .193/.240/.226 |
| 2017 | 29 | AASEA | 150 | .222/.281/.252 | 0 | 9 | 24 | — | .196/.240/.217 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 343 | 312 | 87 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 58 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 279 | 322 | 346 | 668 | 67 | 331 | 17 | 5 | 294 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 522 | 489 | 138 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 87 | 2 | 53 | 8 | 282 | 314 | 387 | 701 | 104 | 330 | 17 | 4 | 307 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 366 | 330 | 93 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 57 | 4 | 42 | 11 | 282 | 329 | 333 | 662 | 52 | 333 | 16 | 5 | 292 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | MLB | Washington Nationals | — | 36 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 167 | 306 | 267 | 572 | 100 | 174 | 17 | 14 | 276 | 73 | -1 | -0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 412 | 371 | 118 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 59 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 318 | 369 | 388 | 757 | 70 | 373 | 14 | 7 | 334 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 235 | 206 | 53 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 44 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 257 | 341 | 359 | 700 | 102 | 315 | 19 | 10 | 316 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 26 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 292 | 346 | 333 | 679 | 42 | 350 | 15 | 8 | 312 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | A+ | Potomac Nationals | — | 18 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 333 | 444 | 333 | 778 | 385 | 11 | 17 | 368 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 26 | A | Hagerstown Suns | — | 16 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 231 | 375 | 462 | 837 | 231 | 222 | 19 | 19 | 374 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 246 | 221 | 51 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 41 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 231 | 292 | 276 | 568 | 45 | 275 | 17 | 7 | 257 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | ROK | AZL Giants | — | 18 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 278 | 133 | 411 | 200 | 28 | 17 | 217 | -22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 29 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 150 | 135 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 222 | 281 | 252 | 533 | 30 | 283 | 20 | 6 | 243 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 36 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 167 | 306 | 267 | 572 | 100 | 174 | 17 | 14 | 276 | 73 | -1 | -0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.6 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 343 | 318 | 81 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 75 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 255 | 286 | 314 | 601 | 60 | 305 | 22 | 3 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 522 | 496 | 121 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 127 | 2 | 53 | 8 | 244 | 268 | 329 | 596 | 85 | 307 | 24 | 3 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 366 | 335 | 99 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 69 | 4 | 42 | 11 | 296 | 331 | 343 | 675 | 48 | 348 | 19 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | MLB MLE | Washington Nationals | — | 36 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 167 | 306 | 267 | 572 | 100 | 174 | 17 | 14 | 276 | 73 | -1 | -0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.6 |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 412 | 380 | 119 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 73 | 2 | 42 | 9 | 313 | 349 | 379 | 728 | 66 | 368 | 18 | 5 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 235 | 214 | 49 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 55 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 229 | 289 | 318 | 607 | 89 | 289 | 23 | 6 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 26 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 280 | 308 | 320 | 628 | 40 | 328 | 19 | 4 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 18 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 312 | 389 | 312 | 701 | 346 | 17 | 11 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2014 | 26 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 16 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 312 | 429 | 741 | 214 | 191 | 25 | 12 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 246 | 227 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 56 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 203 | 246 | 238 | 484 | 35 | 250 | 23 | 5 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants | — | 18 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 167 | 62 | 229 | 154 | 39 | 11 | 135 | -22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 29 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 150 | 138 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 196 | 240 | 217 | 457 | 22 | 257 | 25 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 343 | 318 | 81 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 75 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 255 | 286 | 314 | 601 | 60 | 321 | 22 | 3 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A RAW | Hagerstown Suns | — | 343 | 312 | 87 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 58 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 279 | 322 | 346 | 668 | 67 | 331 | 17 | 5 | 294 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 522 | 496 | 121 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 127 | 2 | 53 | 8 | 244 | 268 | 329 | 596 | 85 | 315 | 24 | 3 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ RAW | Potomac Nationals | — | 522 | 489 | 138 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 87 | 2 | 53 | 8 | 282 | 314 | 387 | 701 | 104 | 330 | 17 | 4 | 307 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 366 | 335 | 99 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 69 | 4 | 42 | 11 | 296 | 331 | 343 | 675 | 48 | 364 | 19 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 366 | 330 | 93 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 57 | 4 | 42 | 11 | 282 | 329 | 333 | 662 | 52 | 333 | 16 | 5 | 292 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 448 | 410 | 124 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 79 | 3 | 45 | 11 | 302 | 346 | 371 | 716 | 68 | 367 | 18 | 5 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 448 | 401 | 123 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 65 | 3 | 45 | 11 | 307 | 364 | 379 | 743 | 72 | 359 | 15 | 7 | 329 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 295 | 269 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 67 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 234 | 295 | 320 | 614 | 86 | 299 | 23 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA RAW | 4 teams | — | 295 | 258 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 31 | 53 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 264 | 349 | 360 | 710 | 97 | 319 | 18 | 11 | 322 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 264 | 243 | 47 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 63 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 193 | 240 | 226 | 467 | 33 | 253 | 24 | 5 | 209 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 264 | 236 | 53 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 46 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 225 | 291 | 267 | 558 | 42 | 271 | 17 | 8 | 254 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 150 | 138 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 196 | 240 | 217 | 457 | 22 | 267 | 25 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 150 | 135 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 222 | 281 | 252 | 533 | 30 | 283 | 20 | 6 | 243 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | Hagerstown Suns | — | 343 | 326 | 81 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 75 | 3 | 21 | 10 | 248 | 286 | 307 | 593 | 58 | 305 | 22 | 3 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | Potomac Nationals | — | 522 | 501 | 121 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 127 | 2 | 53 | 8 | 242 | 268 | 325 | 593 | 84 | 307 | 24 | 3 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 366 | 345 | 99 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 69 | 4 | 42 | 11 | 287 | 331 | 333 | 665 | 46 | 348 | 19 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 448 | 418 | 124 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 79 | 3 | 45 | 11 | 297 | 346 | 364 | 709 | 67 | 352 | 18 | 5 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AAA MLE | 4 teams | — | 295 | 270 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 67 | 3 | 24 | 4 | 233 | 295 | 319 | 613 | 85 | 291 | 23 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 264 | 247 | 47 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 63 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 190 | 240 | 223 | 463 | 32 | 243 | 24 | 5 | 209 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 29 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 150 | 141 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 191 | 240 | 213 | 452 | 21 | 257 | 25 | 4 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 36 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 167 | 306 | 267 | 572 | 100 | 174 | 17 | 14 | 276 | 65 | -1 | -0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 542 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 90 | 108 | 18 | 54 | 36 | 166 | 305 | 266 | 570 | 100 | 173 | 17 | 14 | 276 | 65 | -21 | -4 | -14 | -87 | +14 | -11.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2388 | 2209 | 562 | 81 | 8 | 14 | 103 | 518 | 18 | 206 | 50 | 254 | 293 | 317 | 610 | 63 | 323 | 22 | 4 | 265 | 65 | -1 | -0 | -1 | -5 | +1 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 601 | 153 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 28 | 141 | 5 | 56 | 14 | 255 | 293 | 318 | 611 | 63 | 323 | 22 | 4 | 265 | 65 | -21 | -4 | -14 | -87 | +14 | -11.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAArkansas Travelers · 150 PAwOBA .238 → .204 (−34)K% 20.0% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 4.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 1.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.76% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×1.016 | ×0.958 | 22.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.81% | ÷0.993 | ×0.840 | ×1.016 | ×0.958 | 3.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.016 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.024 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 95, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .238 → .204; ISO .030 → .024; BABIP .283 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+San Jose Giants · 246 PAwOBA .254 → .214 (−40)K% 16.7% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.983 | ×1.340 | — | — | 22.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.32% | ÷0.996 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.958 | 5.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.41% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.958 | 0.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.89% | ÷0.971 | ×0.910 | ×1.043 | ×0.958 | 22.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.89% | ÷1.071 | ×0.820 | ×1.043 | ×0.958 | 2.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.760 | ×1.043 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 0.48% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 94, 2B 114, 3B 130, K 97, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .254 → .214; ISO .045 → .035; BABIP .275 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKAZL Giants · 18 PAwOBA .213 → .135 (−78)K% 27.8% → 40.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.78% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 40.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 9.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 15.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .213 → .135; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .200 → .154. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 235 PAwOBA .307 → .268 (−39)K% 18.7% → 23.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.72% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 23.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.94% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.84% | ÷1.003 | ×0.930 | ×1.007 | ×1.018 | 21.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.02% | ÷1.027 | ×0.830 | ×1.007 | ×1.018 | 6.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.063 | ×0.970 | ×1.007 | ×1.018 | 0.58% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.23% | ÷0.985 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 1.07% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 101, 2B 105, 3B 113, K 93, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .307 → .268; ISO .102 → .087; BABIP .315 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAHarrisburg Senators · 26 PAwOBA .304 → .263 (−41)K% 15.4% → 19.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.38% | ÷0.955 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.69% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.988 | 28.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.109 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.988 | 3.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.991 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 98, 2B 122, 3B 100, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .304 → .263; ISO .042 → .031; BABIP .350 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Potomac Nationals · 18 PAwOBA .359 → .298 (−62)K% 11.1% → 15.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.996 | ×1.420 | — | — | 15.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.943 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.968 | 10.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 38.46% | ÷1.012 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.968 | 34.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.037 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.988 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 99, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .359 → .298; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .385 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AHagerstown Suns · 16 PAwOBA .365 → .280 (−84)K% 18.8% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.75% | ÷0.975 | ×1.340 | — | — | 25.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 18.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.960 | 11.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.006 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 17.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.962 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.960 | 8.18% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 101, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .365 → .280; ISO .231 → .188; BABIP .222 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 412 PAwOBA .326 → .315 (−11)K% 14.3% → 17.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.32% | ÷0.979 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.31% | ÷0.966 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.49% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.77% | ÷0.991 | ×0.930 | ×1.035 | ×1.033 | 30.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.09% | ÷0.979 | ×0.830 | ×1.035 | ×1.033 | 5.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.64% | ÷1.055 | ×0.970 | ×1.035 | ×1.033 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.32% | ÷0.914 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 0.30% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 98, 2B 96, 3B 111, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.
Result: wOBA .326 → .315; ISO .070 → .066; BABIP .373 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).