Jeff Gelalich
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | A+CIN | 307 | .258/.361/.335 | 1 | 16 | 45 | — | .187/.278/.239 |
| 2016 | 25 | AA/A+2 orgs | 347 | .246/.318/.354 | 2 | 17 | 44 | — | .200/.256/.281 |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA/AA/A+/ROKCWS | 165 | .241/.325/.290 | 1 | 6 | 30 | — | .190/.258/.238 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 146 | 127 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 244 | 338 | 378 | 716 | 134 | 345 | 29 | 10 | 323 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 518 | 444 | 109 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 57 | 107 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 245 | 337 | 300 | 636 | 54 | 313 | 21 | 11 | 290 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 264 | 234 | 59 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 25 | 72 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 252 | 332 | 415 | 747 | 162 | 325 | 27 | 9 | 333 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 243 | 212 | 47 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 59 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 222 | 310 | 311 | 621 | 90 | 296 | 24 | 10 | 282 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | — | 307 | 260 | 67 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 97 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 258 | 361 | 335 | 696 | 77 | 407 | 32 | 12 | 318 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 257 | 237 | 59 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 93 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 249 | 296 | 367 | 664 | 118 | 399 | 36 | 6 | 292 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | — | 90 | 68 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 30 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 235 | 381 | 309 | 690 | 74 | 390 | 33 | 16 | 306 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 16 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 188 | 71 | 259 | 125 | 38 | 6 | 146 | -35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 26 | AA | Birmingham Barons | — | 86 | 75 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 293 | 369 | 360 | 729 | 67 | 382 | 22 | 8 | 328 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 40 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 111 | 200 | 111 | 311 | 211 | 42 | 10 | 160 | -50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 26 | ROK | ACL White Sox | — | 23 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 400 | 478 | 500 | 978 | 100 | 533 | 22 | 4 | 440 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 146 | 133 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 60 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 150 | 221 | 218 | 439 | 68 | 263 | 41 | 5 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 518 | 465 | 96 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 142 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 206 | 269 | 252 | 521 | 45 | 277 | 27 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 264 | 241 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 100 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 183 | 248 | 278 | 526 | 95 | 284 | 38 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 243 | 219 | 43 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 74 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 196 | 264 | 279 | 542 | 82 | 278 | 30 | 7 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 307 | 268 | 50 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 140 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 187 | 278 | 239 | 517 | 52 | 369 | 46 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | — | 257 | 242 | 50 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 109 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 207 | 241 | 302 | 543 | 95 | 351 | 42 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 90 | 72 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 181 | 298 | 222 | 520 | 42 | 344 | 47 | 11 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 16 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 188 | 71 | 259 | 117 | 50 | 6 | 117 | -35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Birmingham Barons | — | 86 | 77 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 247 | 310 | 312 | 621 | 65 | 325 | 28 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | A+ MLE | Winston-Salem Dash | — | 40 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 100 | 53 | 153 | 192 | 62 | 5 | 94 | -50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2017 | 26 | ROK MLE | ACL White Sox | — | 23 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 300 | 391 | 400 | 791 | 100 | 405 | 30 | 4 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 146 | 133 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 60 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 150 | 221 | 218 | 439 | 68 | 260 | 41 | 5 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 146 | 127 | 31 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 42 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 244 | 338 | 378 | 716 | 134 | 345 | 29 | 10 | 323 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 518 | 465 | 96 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 142 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 206 | 269 | 252 | 521 | 45 | 287 | 27 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 518 | 444 | 109 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 57 | 107 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 245 | 337 | 300 | 636 | 54 | 313 | 21 | 11 | 290 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 461 | 88 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 174 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 191 | 255 | 280 | 535 | 89 | 287 | 34 | 7 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 507 | 446 | 106 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 131 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 238 | 321 | 365 | 687 | 128 | 310 | 26 | 10 | 309 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 307 | 268 | 50 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 140 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 187 | 278 | 239 | 517 | 52 | 386 | 46 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ RAW | Daytona Tortugas | — | 307 | 260 | 67 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 97 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 258 | 361 | 335 | 696 | 77 | 407 | 32 | 12 | 318 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 347 | 315 | 63 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 151 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 200 | 252 | 283 | 535 | 83 | 367 | 44 | 5 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 347 | 305 | 75 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 29 | 123 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 246 | 318 | 354 | 672 | 108 | 397 | 35 | 8 | 296 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 165 | 150 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 63 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 187 | 252 | 233 | 485 | 47 | 314 | 38 | 5 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA RAW | 4 teams | — | 165 | 145 | 35 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 47 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 241 | 325 | 290 | 615 | 48 | 351 | 28 | 8 | 285 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 146 | 133 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 60 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 150 | 221 | 218 | 439 | 68 | 263 | 41 | 5 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 518 | 473 | 96 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 142 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 203 | 269 | 247 | 517 | 44 | 277 | 27 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 507 | 462 | 88 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 174 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 190 | 255 | 279 | 535 | 89 | 281 | 34 | 7 | 237 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 307 | 270 | 50 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 140 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 185 | 278 | 237 | 515 | 52 | 369 | 46 | 9 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 347 | 322 | 63 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 151 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 196 | 252 | 276 | 529 | 81 | 349 | 44 | 5 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | 4 teams | — | 165 | 151 | 28 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 63 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 185 | 252 | 232 | 483 | 46 | 284 | 38 | 5 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1990 | 1792 | 345 | 51 | 14 | 13 | 133 | 730 | 28 | 84 | 18 | 193 | 259 | 258 | 517 | 66 | 312 | 37 | 7 | 232 | 43 | -135 | +10 | +0 | -21 | +43 | -10.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 113 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 43 | 238 | 9 | 27 | 6 | 193 | 259 | 260 | 518 | 67 | 313 | 37 | 7 | 232 | 43 | -44 | +3 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -3.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AABirmingham Barons · 86 PAwOBA .320 → .263 (−57)K% 22.1% → 27.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.09% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.14% | ÷1.001 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 5.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.33% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 1.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.93% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 29.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.021 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 2.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.086 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.79% | ÷0.894 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.58% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 102, 2B 104, 3B 117, K 96, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .320 → .263; ISO .067 → .058; BABIP .382 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 40 PAwOBA .157 → .094 (−63)K% 42.5% → 62.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 42.50% | ÷0.966 | ×1.420 | — | — | 62.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.046 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.968 | 5.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷0.999 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.968 | 19.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.080 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.902 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.275 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 100, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .157 → .094; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .211 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 ROKACL White Sox · 23 PAwOBA .429 → .293 (−135)K% 21.7% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.74% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 31.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 2.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 8.70% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 5.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 46.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 35.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 4.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .429 → .293; ISO .100 → .063; BABIP .533 → .405. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAACharlotte Knights · 16 PAwOBA .143 → .117 (−26)K% 37.5% → 47.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷0.952 | ×1.200 | — | — | 47.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.008 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 4.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 6.25% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 5.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.012 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.018 | 11.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.958 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.077 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 102, 2B 92, 3B 115, K 90, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .143 → .117; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .125 → .117. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 257 PAwOBA .285 → .231 (−55)K% 36.2% → 42.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.19% | ÷1.042 | ×1.220 | — | — | 42.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.84% | ÷1.075 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 3.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.39% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷0.993 | ×0.920 | ×0.975 | ×0.998 | 25.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.081 | ×0.910 | ×0.975 | ×0.998 | 6.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.47% | ÷0.981 | ×0.880 | ×0.975 | ×0.998 | 3.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷0.924 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.20% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 96, K 108, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .285 → .231; ISO .118 → .096; BABIP .399 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Daytona Tortugas · 90 PAwOBA .310 → .242 (−68)K% 33.3% → 47.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.004 | ×1.420 | — | — | 47.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.56% | ÷1.059 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.978 | 10.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.978 | 2.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.21% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 31.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.63% | ÷1.061 | ×0.960 | — | ×0.978 | 2.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 3.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.063 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 97, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .310 → .242; ISO .074 → .051; BABIP .390 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Daytona Tortugas · 307 PAwOBA .309 → .235 (−74)K% 31.6% → 45.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.60% | ÷0.986 | ×1.420 | — | — | 45.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.40% | ÷0.934 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 9.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.95% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 1.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.52% | ÷0.969 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 29.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.52% | ÷0.988 | ×0.960 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 5.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.45% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.979 | ×0.988 | 1.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.61% | ÷1.047 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.51% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 94, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 97, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .309 → .235; ISO .077 → .052; BABIP .407 → .369. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 264 PAwOBA .324 → .237 (−86)K% 27.3% → 38.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷0.961 | ×1.340 | — | — | 38.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.944 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.14% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.90% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.07% | ÷1.031 | ×0.910 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 21.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.79% | ÷1.005 | ×0.820 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 5.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.030 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.421 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 3.59% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 92, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .324 → .237; ISO .162 → .101; BABIP .325 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).