Kelly Dugan
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AAA/AAPHI | 339 | .274/.352/.351 | 2 | 2 | 84 | — | .265/.328/.334 |
| 2016 | 25 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 424 | .258/.344/.451 | 16 | 1 | 89 | — | .227/.303/.392 |
| 2017 | 26 | AAJackson Gener… | 359 | .256/.337/.457 | 13 | 4 | 74 | — | .208/.272/.358 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies | — | 167 | 150 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 233 | 299 | 300 | 599 | 67 | 289 | 18 | 7 | 271 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK | GCL Phillies | — | 42 | 33 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 576 | 650 | 848 | 1.498 | 273 | 643 | 10 | 10 | 609 | 212 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 498 | 430 | 129 | 33 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 122 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 300 | 388 | 470 | 858 | 170 | 391 | 24 | 10 | 380 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 226 | 212 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 54 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 264 | 300 | 472 | 772 | 208 | 309 | 24 | 2 | 334 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | — | 248 | 217 | 69 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 60 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 318 | 399 | 539 | 938 | 221 | 401 | 24 | 10 | 411 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 290 | 253 | 75 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 296 | 384 | 435 | 819 | 138 | 363 | 19 | 10 | 368 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 147 | 131 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 221 | 297 | 298 | 594 | 76 | 281 | 23 | 5 | 273 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 192 | 168 | 53 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 39 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 315 | 395 | 393 | 788 | 77 | 405 | 20 | 7 | 357 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 322 | 274 | 73 | 17 | 0 | 13 | 29 | 63 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 266 | 356 | 471 | 827 | 204 | 296 | 20 | 9 | 361 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | INTL | Criollos de Caguas | — | 102 | 90 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 303 | 389 | 692 | 156 | 269 | 23 | 5 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 359 | 313 | 80 | 20 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 81 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 256 | 337 | 457 | 794 | 201 | 302 | 23 | 8 | 348 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 167 | 154 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 182 | 232 | 234 | 465 | 52 | 242 | 26 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 42 | 35 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 486 | 550 | 714 | 1.264 | 229 | 503 | 14 | 5 | 482 | 212 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 498 | 451 | 110 | 25 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 170 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 244 | 311 | 381 | 692 | 137 | 354 | 34 | 6 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 226 | 214 | 48 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 68 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 224 | 256 | 369 | 625 | 145 | 291 | 30 | 1 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 248 | 225 | 53 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 87 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 236 | 306 | 378 | 684 | 142 | 361 | 35 | 7 | 305 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 290 | 264 | 75 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 70 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 284 | 346 | 390 | 736 | 106 | 368 | 24 | 6 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA MLE | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | — | 147 | 134 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 269 | 276 | 545 | 67 | 264 | 27 | 3 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 192 | 172 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 308 | 374 | 378 | 752 | 70 | 403 | 23 | 5 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 322 | 286 | 65 | 17 | 0 | 10 | 20 | 78 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 227 | 303 | 392 | 694 | 164 | 261 | 24 | 6 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 359 | 327 | 68 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 101 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 272 | 358 | 630 | 150 | 260 | 28 | 5 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 167 | 154 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 182 | 232 | 234 | 465 | 52 | 250 | 26 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Phillies | — | 167 | 150 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 233 | 299 | 300 | 599 | 67 | 289 | 18 | 7 | 271 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 42 | 35 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 486 | 550 | 714 | 1.264 | 229 | 571 | 14 | 5 | 482 | 212 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK RAW | GCL Phillies | — | 42 | 33 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 576 | 650 | 848 | 1.498 | 273 | 643 | 10 | 10 | 609 | 212 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 498 | 451 | 110 | 25 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 170 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 244 | 311 | 381 | 692 | 137 | 363 | 34 | 6 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A RAW | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 498 | 430 | 129 | 33 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 122 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 300 | 388 | 470 | 858 | 170 | 391 | 24 | 10 | 380 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 474 | 438 | 101 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 21 | 155 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 231 | 285 | 374 | 659 | 144 | 327 | 33 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 474 | 429 | 125 | 24 | 4 | 20 | 29 | 114 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 291 | 352 | 506 | 858 | 214 | 355 | 24 | 6 | 375 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 290 | 264 | 75 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 70 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 284 | 346 | 390 | 736 | 106 | 375 | 24 | 6 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA RAW | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 290 | 253 | 75 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 56 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 296 | 384 | 435 | 819 | 138 | 363 | 19 | 10 | 368 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 339 | 306 | 81 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 85 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 265 | 328 | 333 | 662 | 69 | 356 | 25 | 4 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 339 | 299 | 82 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 73 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 274 | 352 | 351 | 703 | 77 | 352 | 22 | 6 | 320 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 424 | 375 | 86 | 22 | 0 | 13 | 26 | 102 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 229 | 305 | 392 | 697 | 163 | 272 | 24 | 6 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 424 | 364 | 94 | 22 | 0 | 16 | 34 | 86 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 258 | 344 | 451 | 794 | 192 | 289 | 20 | 8 | 347 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 359 | 327 | 68 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 101 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 272 | 358 | 630 | 150 | 265 | 28 | 5 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA RAW | Jackson Generals | — | 359 | 313 | 80 | 20 | 2 | 13 | 30 | 81 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 256 | 337 | 457 | 794 | 201 | 302 | 23 | 8 | 348 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 167 | 155 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 43 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 181 | 232 | 232 | 464 | 52 | 242 | 26 | 5 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 42 | 37 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 459 | 550 | 676 | 1.226 | 216 | 503 | 14 | 5 | 482 | 212 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 498 | 451 | 110 | 25 | 2 | 11 | 29 | 170 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 244 | 311 | 381 | 692 | 137 | 354 | 34 | 6 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 474 | 438 | 101 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 21 | 155 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 231 | 285 | 374 | 659 | 144 | 328 | 33 | 4 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 290 | 263 | 75 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 70 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 285 | 346 | 392 | 738 | 106 | 368 | 24 | 6 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 339 | 307 | 81 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 85 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 264 | 328 | 332 | 661 | 68 | 343 | 25 | 4 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 424 | 380 | 86 | 22 | 0 | 13 | 26 | 102 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 305 | 387 | 692 | 161 | 261 | 24 | 6 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 359 | 327 | 68 | 17 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 101 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 208 | 272 | 358 | 630 | 150 | 260 | 28 | 5 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2593 | 2350 | 566 | 124 | 10 | 52 | 136 | 732 | 80 | 25 | 14 | 241 | 305 | 369 | 673 | 128 | 324 | 28 | 5 | 292 | 84 | -50 | -1 | +0 | -28 | +56 | -2.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 142 | 31 | 3 | 13 | 34 | 183 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 241 | 305 | 370 | 675 | 129 | 324 | 28 | 5 | 292 | 84 | -13 | -0 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAJackson Generals · 359 PAwOBA .340 → .277 (−63)K% 22.6% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.56% | ÷0.983 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.80% | ÷0.987 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 5.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.79% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 2.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.40% | ÷0.980 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×0.978 | 17.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.62% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×0.963 | ×0.978 | 7.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×0.963 | ×0.978 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.60% | ÷0.985 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 4.45% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .340 → .277; ISO .201 → .162; BABIP .302 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AATennessee Smokies · 322 PAwOBA .356 → .298 (−58)K% 19.6% → 24.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.57% | ÷0.992 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.01% | ÷0.982 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 6.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.42% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 2.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.38% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×0.988 | 17.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.06% | ÷0.918 | ×0.910 | ×0.976 | ×0.988 | 7.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.976 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.16% | ÷1.059 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 4.60% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .356 → .298; ISO .204 → .169; BABIP .296 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAReading Fightin Phils · 192 PAwOBA .352 → .332 (−20)K% 20.3% → 23.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.31% | ÷1.060 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.38% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.77% | ÷1.029 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.69% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 3.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.78% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×1.041 | ×0.998 | 32.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.53% | ÷0.949 | ×0.860 | ×1.041 | ×0.998 | 8.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.78% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.041 | ×0.998 | 0.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.021 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 112, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .352 → .332; ISO .077 → .073; BABIP .405 → .403. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAALehigh Valley IronPigs · 147 PAwOBA .265 → .240 (−25)K% 23.1% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.13% | ÷1.019 | ×1.200 | — | — | 27.23% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.013 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 3.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.08% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 3.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.71% | ÷0.991 | ×0.930 | ×1.018 | ×1.033 | 23.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.12% | ÷1.314 | ×0.830 | ×1.018 | ×1.033 | 2.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.970 | ×1.018 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.06% | ÷0.845 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 2.12% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 98, 2B 163, 3B 84, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .265 → .240; ISO .076 → .067; BABIP .281 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAReading Fightin Phils · 290 PAwOBA .357 → .322 (−35)K% 19.3% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.31% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.97% | ÷1.064 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.97% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.76% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.89% | ÷0.974 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 27.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.14% | ÷0.984 | ×0.860 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 8.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.51% | ÷0.923 | ×0.950 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.54% | ÷1.317 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.52% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 163, 1B 95, 2B 97, 3B 85, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .357 → .322; ISO .138 → .109; BABIP .363 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Clearwater Threshers · 248 PAwOBA .400 → .305 (−96)K% 24.2% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.19% | ÷0.980 | ×1.420 | — | — | 35.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.68% | ÷1.045 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 6.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.42% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 2.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.03% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×0.998 | 25.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.64% | ÷0.978 | ×0.960 | ×0.979 | ×0.998 | 7.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.91% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.979 | ×0.998 | 1.68% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.37% | ÷1.253 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 4.46% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 151, 1B 98, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 96, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .400 → .305; ISO .221 → .153; BABIP .401 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAReading Fightin Phils · 226 PAwOBA .326 → .267 (−59)K% 23.9% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.89% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.21% | ÷1.074 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 1.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.65% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 2.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.89% | ÷1.022 | ×0.970 | ×0.987 | ×1.027 | 20.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.59% | ÷0.892 | ×0.860 | ×0.987 | ×1.027 | 7.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷1.144 | ×0.950 | ×0.987 | ×1.027 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.33% | ÷1.205 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 4.21% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 104, 2B 78, 3B 129, K 93, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.
Result: wOBA .326 → .267; ISO .208 → .148; BABIP .309 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ALakewood BlueClaws · 498 PAwOBA .372 → .299 (−74)K% 24.5% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.50% | ÷0.964 | ×1.340 | — | — | 34.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.64% | ÷1.076 | ×0.660 | — | — | 5.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.01% | — | ×0.770 | — | — | 2.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.62% | ÷0.985 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | — | 25.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.71% | ÷1.016 | ×0.820 | ×1.012 | — | 8.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.65% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.012 | — | 0.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.90% | ÷0.846 | ×0.820 | — | — | 3.78% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 97, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 93, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .372 → .299; ISO .170 → .141; BABIP .391 → .354. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .