Matt Dermody prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Matt Dermody P Worcester Red Sox

Age 36 LHP 6'5" / 211 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 97105vR 113

ERA4.20

FIP4.20

K%22.1%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP25

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p5025.2%

p1015.8%

xwOBA vs

p610.301

CT+1.1

FB-0.7

CH-1.2

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	25	A+ MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	35	1	77	340	62	13	2	3%	2.2	14.0%	4.4%	9.6%	0.7%	4.21	2.85	—
2015	25	A+ RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	35	1	77	340	62	13	2	3%	2.2	18.2%	3.8%	14.4%	0.6%	4.21	2.33	—
2016	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	52	0	57	237	52	8	2	0%	1.1	17.1%	3.9%	13.2%	0.4%	2.35	2.38	+1.5
2016	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	52	0	57	237	52	8	2	0%	1.1	21.9%	3.4%	18.6%	0.8%	2.35	2.16	+1.7
2017	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	1	65	281	54	14	12	2%	1.2	17.6%	5.2%	12.4%	4.7%	3.86	4.87	-0.2
2017	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	1	65	281	54	14	12	2%	1.2	19.2%	5.0%	14.2%	4.3%	3.86	4.48	+0.1
2018	28	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	5	0	5	25	6	4	0	0%	1.0	24.0%	16.0%	8.0%	0.0%	7.20	3.10	—
2018	28	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	5	0	5	25	6	4	0	0%	1.0	24.0%	16.0%	8.0%	0.0%	7.20	3.10	—
2019	29	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	15	0	23	102	23	3	4	0%	1.5	19.8%	3.1%	16.8%	4.3%	5.48	4.18	—
2019	29	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	15	0	23	102	23	3	4	0%	1.5	22.5%	2.9%	19.6%	3.9%	5.48	3.75	—
2020	30	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	0.29	+0.1
2020	30	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0%	1.0	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.10	+0.0
2022	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	13	80	351	71	19	11	62%	3.8	17.9%	5.5%	12.4%	3.5%	3.92	4.22	+0.6
2022	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	13	80	351	71	19	11	62%	3.8	20.2%	5.4%	14.8%	3.1%	3.92	3.82	+1.0
2023	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	10	53	233	53	12	9	91%	4.8	20.7%	4.6%	16.1%	3.5%	4.75	3.87	+0.7
2023	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	10	53	233	53	12	9	91%	4.8	20.7%	4.6%	16.1%	3.5%	4.75	3.87	+0.7
2023	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	10	53	233	53	12	9	91%	4.8	22.7%	5.2%	17.6%	3.9%	4.75	3.99	+0.6
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			31	1	31	138	23	6	9	3%	1.0	16.7%	4.3%	12.3%	6.5%	5.74	5.94	-0.5
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	36	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.1%	7.2%	14.8%	3.0%	4.20	4.20	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	BOS	21	0	22	92	19	7	3	0%	1.0	21.1%	8.1%	13.0%	3.4%	4.45	4.61	-0.0
2027	37	MLB CTX	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.1%	8.1%	13.0%	3.4%	4.45	4.61	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	1	32	139	23	6	9	3%	1.0	16.7%	4.4%	12.3%	6.5%	5.74	5.81	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		198	6	200	881	146	38	57	3%	1.0	16.7%	4.4%	12.3%	6.5%	5.74	5.81	-2.9
Career	—	MLE		196	25	362	1572	276	76	42	13%	1.8	17.5%	4.8%	12.7%	2.7%	3.98	3.69	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	14	200	869	152	42	23	13%	1.8	17.5%	4.8%	12.7%	2.7%	3.98	3.69	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Dermody (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.20	22.1%	7.2%	3.0%	—	4.61	21.1%	13.0%	22	+0.41	—	—	—
Raul Valdes L 2013 · 4.07 FIP	35	SU	4.07	24.3%	5.3%	4.3%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	160	75
Heriberto Ruelas L 2017 · 3.42 FIP	35	SU	3.42	17.2%	6.7%	1.7%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.95	117	73
Brian Shouse L 2005 · 4.24 FIP	36	SU	4.24	15.0%	6.0%	3.0%	.271	3.35	15.0%	9.6%	137	-0.89	2.32	339	67
Hisanori Takahashi L 2011 · 3.64 FIP	36	SU	3.64	18.5%	6.0%	2.4%	.249	4.04	24.5%	18.4%	50	+0.40	3.50	240	64
Brandon Mann L 2018 · 3.59 FIP	34	SU	3.59	17.8%	11.4%	1.0%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	3.59	190	62
Juan Pablo Perez L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	36	SU	3.68	26.5%	15.3%	1.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	1.75	104	59
Mike Zagurski L 2018 · 3.12 FIP	35	SU	3.12	30.4%	9.3%	2.6%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	54
Tim Byrdak L 2010 · 4.48 FIP	36	SU	4.48	17.1%	11.8%	2.4%	.308	2.92	27.6%	18.1%	68	-1.56	2.85	320	53
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	37
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	36
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	36
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	35
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	35
Peter Moylan R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	36	SU	3.11	18.4%	8.2%	0.9%	.259	3.84	18.2%	9.1%	145	+0.73	2.54	431	35
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	34
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2003 · 3.30 FIP	35	SU	3.30	19.3%	8.7%	1.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	223	32
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	31
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	31
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	31
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	31

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	26	19.6%	6.9%	1.77	4.89
Josh Osich ('21)	1.1	55	20.7%	9.0%	1.84	5.02
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.3	53	23.0%	8.3%	1.61	5.21
Adam Morgan ('21)	1.8	62	20.8%	7.2%	1.58	4.80
Casey Fien ('17)	1.4	58	21.0%	5.1%	1.46	4.42
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
Ricky Stone ('07)	1.3	64	15.2%	8.0%	1.55	4.68