Matt Davidson

PosDH

B/TR/R

Born1991-03-26

Age (2027)36

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2022

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2020	29	MLBCIN	47	.163/.234/.395	3	0	66	-0.3
2021	30	AAAOklahoma City…	356	.294/.370/.629	28	0	103	—	.238/.296/.469
2022	31	AAAOAK	382	.310/.415/.644	32	0	104	—	.228/.315/.432
2022	31	MLBOakland Athle…	37	.147/.216/.324	2	0	58	-0.1
2023	32	No MLB games played
2024	33	No MLB games played
2025	34	No MLB games played
2026	35	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.4

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2018-2022

Barrel%80

Avg EV64

xwOBA61

Speed10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2010	19	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	84	71	12	1	0	2	12	25	1	0	0	169	298	268	565	99	227	30	14	270	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	476	415	120	35	3	16	43	109	13	0	2	289	373	504	876	214	354	23	9	383	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A+	Visalia Rawhide	—	606	535	148	39	1	20	52	147	11	0	1	277	353	465	818	189	340	24	9	359	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AA	Mobile BayBears	—	576	486	126	28	2	23	69	127	15	3	4	259	368	467	835	208	302	22	12	369	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	46	40	8	0	0	2	2	18	3	0	0	200	289	350	639	150	286	39	4	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	87	76	18	6	0	3	10	24	1	0	1	237	333	434	768	197	306	28	11	343	107	+1	-0	+0	+2	+2	0.5
2013	22	AAA	Reno Aces	—	500	443	124	32	3	17	46	134	5	1	0	280	354	481	835	201	359	27	9	364	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	539	478	95	18	0	20	49	164	8	0	0	199	284	362	646	163	253	30	9	290	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	602	528	107	22	0	23	62	191	7	1	0	203	295	375	670	172	264	32	10	300	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA	Charlotte Knights	—	326	284	76	20	0	10	32	86	5	0	0	268	352	444	796	176	346	26	10	350	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	443	414	91	16	1	26	19	165	5	0	1	220	263	452	714	232	285	37	4	308	93	-4	-0	-2	+2	+10	0.5
2018	27	MLB	Chicago White Sox	—	496	434	99	23	0	20	52	165	7	0	0	228	320	419	740	191	313	33	10	329	108	+4	+0	-1	-9	+11	0.5
2019	28	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	528	469	124	24	0	33	42	151	13	1	0	264	342	527	868	262	315	29	8	377	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	47	43	7	1	0	3	4	13	0	0	0	163	234	395	629	233	148	28	9	277	66	-2	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.3
2021	30	AAA	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	356	313	92	21	0	28	33	90	5	0	0	294	370	629	1.000	335	320	25	9	424	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	37	34	5	0	0	2	3	13	0	0	1	147	216	324	540	176	158	35	8	242	58	-2	-0	-1	+1	+1	-0.1
2022	31	AAA	Las Vegas Aviators	—	382	323	100	10	1	32	44	102	14	0	0	310	415	644	1.059	334	358	27	12	454	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1110	1001	220	46	1	54	88	380	13	0	3	220	291	430	721	210	289	34	8	317	101	+1	-1	-6	-5	+24	1.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2010	19	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	84	75	11	1	0	2	8	32	1	0	0	147	238	240	478	93	216	38	10	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A MLE	South Bend Silver Hawks	—	476	432	97	27	3	13	27	155	13	0	2	225	290	391	681	167	307	33	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	606	550	126	31	1	17	37	193	11	0	1	229	291	382	673	153	301	32	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AA MLE	Mobile BayBears	—	576	507	113	26	2	17	49	150	15	3	4	223	310	383	693	160	271	26	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	87	77	17	5	0	3	9	24	1	0	1	221	310	403	713	182	306	28	10	326	107	+1	-0	+0	+2	+2	0.5
2013	22	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	500	454	98	24	2	12	36	173	5	1	0	216	281	357	638	141	307	35	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	539	493	80	14	0	15	34	202	8	0	0	162	228	282	510	120	232	37	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	602	547	88	17	0	15	43	236	7	1	0	161	231	274	505	113	241	39	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	326	294	67	17	0	9	22	98	5	0	0	228	293	378	670	150	299	30	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	443	414	91	16	1	26	19	165	5	0	1	220	263	452	714	232	285	37	4	306	93	-4	-0	-2	+2	+10	0.5
2018	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	496	434	99	23	0	20	52	165	7	0	0	228	320	419	740	191	313	33	10	327	108	+4	+0	-1	-9	+11	0.5
2019	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	528	482	94	18	0	24	29	192	13	1	0	195	260	382	641	187	254	36	5	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	47	43	7	1	0	3	4	13	0	0	0	163	234	395	629	233	148	28	9	266	66	-2	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.3
2021	30	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	356	324	77	18	0	19	22	109	5	0	0	238	296	469	765	231	275	31	6	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	37	34	5	0	0	2	3	13	0	0	1	147	216	324	540	176	158	35	8	254	58	-2	-0	-1	+1	+1	-0.1
2022	31	AAA MLE	Las Vegas Aviators	—	382	338	77	7	1	20	29	121	14	0	0	228	315	432	747	204	284	32	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	560	507	108	28	3	15	35	187	14	0	2	213	282	369	651	156	301	33	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	560	486	132	36	3	18	55	134	14	0	2	272	362	469	831	198	337	24	10	366	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	606	550	126	31	1	17	37	193	11	0	1	229	291	382	673	153	313	32	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A+ RAW	Visalia Rawhide	—	606	535	148	39	1	20	52	147	11	0	1	277	353	465	818	189	340	24	9	359	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	622	545	122	28	2	19	53	162	18	3	4	224	313	387	700	163	278	26	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	622	526	134	28	2	25	71	145	18	3	4	255	362	458	820	203	301	23	11	362	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	587	531	115	30	2	14	44	197	6	1	1	217	284	360	644	143	310	34	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	587	519	142	38	3	20	56	158	6	1	1	274	351	474	825	200	352	27	10	361	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	539	493	80	14	0	15	34	202	8	0	0	162	228	282	510	120	233	37	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	—	539	478	95	18	0	20	49	164	8	0	0	199	284	362	646	163	253	30	9	290	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	602	547	88	17	0	15	43	236	7	1	0	161	231	274	505	113	243	39	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	—	602	528	107	22	0	23	62	191	7	1	0	203	295	375	670	172	264	32	10	300	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	326	294	67	17	0	9	22	98	5	0	0	228	293	378	670	150	305	30	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	—	326	284	76	20	0	10	32	86	5	0	0	268	352	444	796	176	346	26	10	350	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	443	414	91	16	1	26	19	165	5	0	1	220	263	452	714	232	285	37	4	306	93	-4	-0	-2	+2	+10	0.5
2017	26	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	—	443	414	91	16	1	26	19	165	5	0	1	220	263	452	714	232	285	37	4	308	93	-4	-0	-2	+2	+10	0.5
2018	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	496	434	99	23	0	20	52	165	7	0	0	228	320	419	740	191	313	33	10	327	108	+4	+0	-1	-9	+11	0.5
2018	27	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	—	496	434	99	23	0	20	52	165	7	0	0	228	320	419	740	191	313	33	10	329	108	+4	+0	-1	-9	+11	0.5
2019	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	528	482	94	18	0	24	29	192	13	1	0	195	260	382	641	187	259	36	5	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	—	528	469	124	24	0	33	42	151	13	1	0	264	342	527	868	262	315	29	8	377	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	47	43	7	1	0	3	4	13	0	0	0	163	234	395	629	233	148	28	9	266	66	-2	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.3
2020	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	—	47	43	7	1	0	3	4	13	0	0	0	163	234	395	629	233	148	28	9	277	66	-2	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.3
2021	30	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	356	324	77	18	0	19	22	109	5	0	0	238	296	469	765	231	289	31	6	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA RAW	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	356	313	92	21	0	28	33	90	5	0	0	294	370	629	1.000	335	320	25	9	424	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	419	372	82	7	1	22	32	134	14	0	1	220	306	422	728	202	276	32	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	419	357	105	10	1	34	47	115	14	0	1	294	397	613	1.011	319	340	27	11	436	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	560	506	108	28	3	15	35	187	14	0	2	213	282	370	652	156	293	33	6	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	20	A+ MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	606	553	126	31	1	17	37	193	11	0	1	228	291	380	671	152	301	32	6	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	622	546	122	28	2	19	53	162	18	3	4	223	313	386	700	163	271	26	9	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	22	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	587	532	115	30	2	14	44	197	6	1	1	216	284	359	643	143	307	34	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	23	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	539	492	80	14	0	15	34	202	8	0	0	163	228	283	511	120	232	37	6	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	24	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	602	547	88	17	0	15	43	236	7	1	0	161	231	274	505	113	241	39	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	25	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	—	326	296	67	17	0	9	22	98	5	0	0	226	293	375	668	149	299	30	7	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	26	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	443	416	91	16	1	26	19	165	5	0	1	219	263	450	712	231	285	37	4	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	27	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	—	496	434	99	23	0	20	52	165	7	0	0	228	320	419	740	191	313	33	10	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	28	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	528	481	94	18	0	24	29	192	13	1	0	195	260	383	642	187	254	36	5	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	47	43	7	1	0	3	4	13	0	0	0	163	234	395	629	233	148	28	9	266	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	30	AAA MLE	Oklahoma City Dodgers	—	356	326	77	18	0	19	22	109	5	0	0	236	296	466	763	230	275	31	6	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	419	370	82	7	1	22	32	134	14	0	1	222	306	424	731	203	273	32	8	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1110	1001	220	46	1	54	88	380	13	0	3	220	291	430	721	210	289	34	8	317	79	+1	-1	-6	-5	+24	1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	130	27	1	32	52	223	8	0	2	222	295	435	730	213	292	34	8	317	79	+0	-1	-3	-3	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	6131	5536	1156	248	10	218	426	2053	113	6	10	209	279	375	654	167	283	33	7	285	79	+1	-1	-6	-5	+24	1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	122	26	1	23	45	218	12	1	1	208	278	373	651	165	281	34	7	285	79	+0	-1	-3	-3	+14	0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 382 PAwOBA .442 → .322 (−121)K% 26.7% → 31.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.70%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	31.75%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.26%	÷0.992	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.53%
HBP% /PA	3.66%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	3.31%
Singles /BIP	25.79%	÷0.995	×0.930	×0.963	×0.962	22.33%
Doubles /BIP	4.52%	÷1.088	×0.830	×0.963	×0.962	3.20%
Triples /BIP	0.45%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.963	×0.962	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	14.48%	÷1.075	×0.700	—	×0.962	9.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .442 → .322; ISO .334 → .213; BABIP .358 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 356 PAwOBA .417 → .320 (−98)K% 25.3% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.28%	÷0.994	×1.200	—	—	30.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.27%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	×0.972	6.13%
HBP% /PA	1.40%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	1.28%
Singles /BIP	19.28%	÷0.958	×0.930	×0.983	×0.972	17.88%
Doubles /BIP	9.42%	÷0.941	×0.830	×0.983	×0.972	7.94%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	×0.983	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	12.56%	÷1.016	×0.700	—	×0.972	8.41%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 92, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 99, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .417 → .320; ISO .335 → .234; BABIP .320 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAANashville Sounds · 528 PAwOBA .368 → .276 (−91)K% 28.6% → 36.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.60%	÷1.015	×1.290	—	—	36.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.58%	÷0.988	×0.710	—	×0.992	5.40%
HBP% /PA	2.46%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	2.39%
Singles /BIP	21.07%	÷1.007	×0.900	×0.950	×0.992	17.75%
Doubles /BIP	7.55%	÷0.967	×0.810	×0.950	×0.992	5.96%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.069	×0.810	×0.950	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.38%	÷0.998	×0.780	—	×0.992	8.05%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 101, 2B 93, 3B 114, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .368 → .276; ISO .262 → .189; BABIP .315 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAACharlotte Knights · 326 PAwOBA .342 → .295 (−47)K% 26.4% → 30.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.38%	÷1.053	×1.200	—	—	30.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.20%	÷0.990	×0.690	—	×1.033	6.63%
HBP% /PA	1.53%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.49%
Singles /BIP	23.23%	÷1.031	×0.930	×0.950	×1.033	20.56%
Doubles /BIP	10.10%	÷0.974	×0.830	×0.950	×1.033	8.44%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.926	×0.970	×0.950	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.05%	÷0.950	×0.840	—	×1.033	4.61%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 111, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .342 → .295; ISO .176 → .158; BABIP .346 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAACharlotte Knights · 602 PAwOBA .293 → .226 (−67)K% 31.7% → 39.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.73%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	39.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.97%	÷1.017	×0.690	—	×1.048	7.09%
HBP% /PA	1.16%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.15%
Singles /BIP	18.40%	÷0.973	×0.930	×0.964	×1.048	17.78%
Doubles /BIP	6.53%	÷0.993	×0.830	×0.964	×1.048	5.52%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.964	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.82%	÷1.306	×0.840	—	×1.048	4.60%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 161, 1B 95, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.

Result: wOBA .293 → .226; ISO .172 → .116; BABIP .264 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAACharlotte Knights · 539 PAwOBA .283 → .229 (−55)K% 30.4% → 37.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.43%	÷0.975	×1.200	—	—	37.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.91%	÷1.012	×0.690	—	×1.050	6.38%
HBP% /PA	1.48%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	1.46%
Singles /BIP	18.15%	÷0.966	×0.930	×0.951	×1.050	17.45%
Doubles /BIP	5.73%	÷0.977	×0.830	×0.951	×1.050	4.86%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.910	×0.970	×0.951	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.37%	÷1.118	×0.840	—	×1.050	5.02%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 93, 2B 95, 3B 82, K 95, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .283 → .229; ISO .163 → .123; BABIP .253 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAAReno Aces · 500 PAwOBA .358 → .279 (−80)K% 26.8% → 34.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.80%	÷1.000	×1.290	—	—	34.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.00%	÷0.947	×0.710	—	×1.050	7.08%
HBP% /PA	1.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	1.03%
Singles /BIP	23.30%	÷1.018	×0.900	×0.963	×1.050	20.84%
Doubles /BIP	10.36%	÷0.994	×0.810	×0.963	×1.050	8.54%
Triples /BIP	0.97%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.963	×1.050	0.69%
Home runs /BIP	5.50%	÷1.121	×0.780	—	×1.050	4.02%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 104, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 100, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .358 → .279; ISO .201 → .142; BABIP .359 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAMobile BayBears · 576 PAwOBA .359 → .304 (−55)K% 22.0% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.05%	÷1.031	×1.220	—	—	26.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷0.936	×0.680	—	×1.050	8.48%
HBP% /PA	2.60%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	2.30%
Singles /BIP	20.33%	÷1.029	×0.920	×0.974	×1.050	18.60%
Doubles /BIP	7.80%	÷1.017	×0.910	×0.974	×1.050	7.14%
Triples /BIP	0.56%	÷1.150	×0.880	×0.974	×1.050	0.44%
Home runs /BIP	6.41%	÷1.136	×0.800	—	×1.050	4.74%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 106, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 106, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .359 → .304; ISO .208 → .166; BABIP .302 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).