Alex Burg
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | AAA/AA/A+/INTL3 orgs | 551 | .272/.383/.487 | 23 | 1 | 91 | — | .221/.308/.406 |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA/AATEX | 299 | .215/.284/.363 | 7 | 1 | 33 | — | .170/.223/.275 |
| 2018 | 30 | AAAOklahoma City… | 48 | .234/.250/.362 | 1 | 0 | 20 | — | .191/.208/.298 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 33 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 207 | 303 | 345 | 648 | 138 | 429 | 45 | 9 | 295 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK | AZL Giants | — | 17 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 412 | 533 | 945 | 200 | 357 | 6 | 6 | 417 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 296 | 262 | 78 | 24 | 0 | 14 | 28 | 80 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 298 | 372 | 550 | 922 | 252 | 376 | 27 | 9 | 398 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 155 | 130 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 17 | 29 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 277 | 382 | 546 | 928 | 269 | 277 | 19 | 11 | 399 | 156 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 397 | 345 | 87 | 27 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 77 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 252 | 344 | 429 | 772 | 177 | 295 | 19 | 10 | 342 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 46 | 40 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 300 | 378 | 475 | 853 | 175 | 417 | 33 | 9 | 372 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA | Jacksonville Suns | — | 39 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 154 | 158 | 312 | 26 | 172 | 23 | 3 | 144 | -34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 229 | 203 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 58 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 266 | 344 | 384 | 728 | 118 | 352 | 25 | 10 | 327 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA | Jacksonville Suns | — | 265 | 227 | 60 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 66 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 264 | 365 | 405 | 770 | 141 | 342 | 25 | 12 | 347 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 21 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 333 | 188 | 521 | 62 | 182 | 24 | 19 | 272 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 208 | 181 | 49 | 11 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 47 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 271 | 356 | 448 | 804 | 177 | 326 | 23 | 10 | 354 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 246 | 199 | 60 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 39 | 52 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 302 | 426 | 598 | 1.024 | 296 | 331 | 21 | 16 | 437 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | INTL | Tiburones de La Guaira | — | 76 | 64 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 333 | 328 | 661 | 109 | 277 | 22 | 13 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 80 | 74 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 263 | 297 | 560 | 95 | 300 | 30 | 8 | 255 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 219 | 196 | 43 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 16 | 43 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 292 | 388 | 679 | 168 | 242 | 20 | 7 | 300 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 48 | 47 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 250 | 362 | 612 | 128 | 278 | 21 | 0 | 271 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 33 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 212 | 233 | 445 | 100 | 386 | 58 | 6 | 209 | 28 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Giants | — | 17 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 353 | 400 | 753 | 133 | 262 | 6 | 6 | 293 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 296 | 269 | 62 | 18 | 0 | 12 | 21 | 109 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 230 | 294 | 431 | 725 | 201 | 322 | 37 | 7 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 397 | 359 | 74 | 22 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 103 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 206 | 275 | 354 | 629 | 148 | 252 | 26 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AAA MLE | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 46 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 244 | 311 | 341 | 653 | 98 | 369 | 41 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 39 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 154 | 158 | 312 | 26 | 157 | 28 | 3 | 118 | -34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 229 | 209 | 44 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 81 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 211 | 273 | 301 | 575 | 91 | 319 | 35 | 7 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 265 | 238 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 80 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 227 | 300 | 336 | 637 | 109 | 309 | 30 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 21 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 286 | 176 | 462 | 59 | 152 | 29 | 14 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 208 | 187 | 42 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 56 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 225 | 293 | 369 | 662 | 144 | 273 | 27 | 7 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 246 | 212 | 48 | 10 | 0 | 13 | 26 | 72 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 226 | 322 | 458 | 780 | 231 | 251 | 29 | 11 | 328 | 108 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 80 | 76 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 158 | 200 | 224 | 424 | 66 | 247 | 39 | 5 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 219 | 201 | 35 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 51 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 174 | 231 | 294 | 525 | 119 | 200 | 23 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 48 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 208 | 298 | 506 | 106 | 231 | 27 | 0 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 50 | 46 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 260 | 326 | 586 | 130 | 346 | 40 | 4 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 50 | 44 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 250 | 340 | 409 | 749 | 159 | 393 | 32 | 8 | 336 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 405 | 93 | 27 | 0 | 18 | 32 | 166 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 230 | 299 | 430 | 729 | 200 | 332 | 37 | 7 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 451 | 392 | 114 | 29 | 0 | 24 | 45 | 109 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 291 | 375 | 548 | 924 | 258 | 341 | 24 | 10 | 398 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 397 | 359 | 74 | 22 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 103 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 206 | 275 | 354 | 629 | 148 | 260 | 26 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ RAW | San Jose Giants | — | 397 | 345 | 87 | 27 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 77 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 252 | 344 | 429 | 772 | 177 | 295 | 19 | 10 | 342 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 314 | 288 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 111 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 201 | 260 | 285 | 545 | 83 | 309 | 35 | 6 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 314 | 281 | 71 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 27 | 82 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 253 | 325 | 367 | 691 | 114 | 333 | 26 | 9 | 311 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 265 | 238 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 80 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 227 | 300 | 336 | 637 | 109 | 318 | 30 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA RAW | Jacksonville Suns | — | 265 | 227 | 60 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 66 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 264 | 365 | 405 | 770 | 141 | 342 | 25 | 12 | 347 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 551 | 484 | 106 | 23 | 0 | 22 | 50 | 155 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 304 | 403 | 707 | 184 | 268 | 28 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | A+ RAW | 4 teams | — | 551 | 460 | 125 | 30 | 0 | 23 | 74 | 121 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 272 | 383 | 487 | 870 | 215 | 316 | 22 | 13 | 381 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 299 | 277 | 47 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 82 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 170 | 223 | 274 | 497 | 105 | 218 | 27 | 5 | 218 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 299 | 270 | 58 | 19 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 67 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 215 | 284 | 363 | 647 | 148 | 256 | 22 | 7 | 288 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 48 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 208 | 298 | 506 | 106 | 242 | 27 | 0 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA RAW | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 48 | 47 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 234 | 250 | 362 | 612 | 128 | 278 | 21 | 0 | 271 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 50 | 46 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 260 | 326 | 586 | 130 | 344 | 40 | 4 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 408 | 93 | 27 | 0 | 18 | 32 | 166 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 228 | 299 | 426 | 725 | 199 | 322 | 37 | 7 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 24 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 397 | 360 | 74 | 22 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 103 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 206 | 275 | 353 | 628 | 147 | 252 | 26 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 25 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 314 | 288 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 111 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 201 | 260 | 285 | 545 | 83 | 306 | 35 | 6 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 26 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 265 | 238 | 54 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 80 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 227 | 300 | 336 | 637 | 109 | 309 | 30 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 27 | A+ MLE | 4 teams | — | 551 | 487 | 106 | 23 | 0 | 22 | 50 | 155 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 218 | 304 | 400 | 704 | 183 | 256 | 28 | 9 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 28 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 299 | 278 | 47 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 82 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 223 | 273 | 496 | 104 | 213 | 27 | 5 | 218 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 30 | AAA MLE | Oklahoma City Dodgers | — | 48 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 191 | 208 | 298 | 506 | 106 | 231 | 27 | 0 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2375 | 2144 | 450 | 111 | 5 | 64 | 168 | 730 | 37 | 11 | 9 | 210 | 279 | 356 | 635 | 146 | 282 | 31 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -81 | -1 | +0 | -59 | +51 | -9.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 123 | 30 | 1 | 18 | 46 | 200 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 210 | 278 | 356 | 634 | 147 | 280 | 31 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -22 | -0 | +0 | -16 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2018 AAAOklahoma City Dodgers · 48 PAwOBA .263 → .198 (−65)K% 20.8% → 27.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.83% | ÷0.970 | ×1.290 | — | — | 27.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.08% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.962 | 1.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.92% | ÷0.992 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.962 | 16.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.029 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.962 | 6.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.020 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.962 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.020 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.962 | 1.99% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 98, 2B 106, 3B 104, K 94, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .263 → .198; ISO .128 → .087; BABIP .278 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 219 PAwOBA .296 → .232 (−64)K% 19.6% → 23.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.63% | ÷1.034 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.31% | ÷0.978 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 5.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.83% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 1.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.69% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | ×0.958 | 13.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.84% | ÷1.062 | ×0.840 | ×0.984 | ×0.958 | 5.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×0.984 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.58% | ÷1.065 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.958 | 3.29% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 96, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 107, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .296 → .232; ISO .168 → .124; BABIP .242 → .200. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAARound Rock Express · 80 PAwOBA .249 → .178 (−70)K% 30.0% → 38.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.00% | ÷1.004 | ×1.290 | — | — | 38.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.50% | ÷1.039 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.982 | 5.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.00% | ÷0.949 | ×0.900 | ×0.980 | ×0.982 | 14.61% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.00% | ÷1.079 | ×0.810 | ×0.980 | ×0.982 | 10.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.810 | ×0.980 | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.839 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.982 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 68, 1B 90, 2B 116, 3B 95, K 101, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .249 → .178; ISO .095 → .062; BABIP .300 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+High Desert Mavericks · 246 PAwOBA .432 → .328 (−104)K% 21.1% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.14% | ÷0.973 | ×1.340 | — | — | 29.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.85% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.948 | 10.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.63% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.948 | 1.22% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.09% | ÷1.041 | ×0.910 | ×0.962 | ×0.948 | 16.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.046 | ×0.820 | ×0.962 | ×0.948 | 6.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×0.962 | ×0.948 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.20% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.948 | 8.77% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 108, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 22.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .432 → .328; ISO .296 → .242; BABIP .331 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 208 PAwOBA .348 → .283 (−65)K% 22.6% → 26.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.60% | ÷1.033 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.10% | ÷0.976 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 7.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.44% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.968 | 1.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.13% | ÷1.047 | ×0.920 | ×1.012 | ×0.968 | 19.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.21% | ÷1.026 | ×0.840 | ×1.012 | ×0.968 | 6.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.012 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.22% | ÷0.946 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 4.28% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 109, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 107, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .348 → .283; ISO .177 → .145; BABIP .326 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAARound Rock Express · 21 PAwOBA .267 → .208 (−59)K% 23.8% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.81% | ÷1.031 | ×1.290 | — | — | 29.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.05% | ÷1.014 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.992 | 13.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.76% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×0.992 | 4.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.007 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.992 | 8.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.029 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.992 | 7.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.184 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .267 → .208; ISO .062 → .049; BABIP .182 → .152. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAJacksonville Suns · 265 PAwOBA .339 → .281 (−59)K% 24.9% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.91% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.45% | ÷0.995 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 8.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.13% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.71% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×1.017 | ×0.978 | 24.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.59% | ÷0.940 | ×0.910 | ×1.017 | ×0.978 | 5.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.064 | ×0.880 | ×1.017 | ×0.978 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.006 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 3.38% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 113, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .339 → .281; ISO .141 → .117; BABIP .342 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 229 PAwOBA .320 → .257 (−63)K% 25.3% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.33% | ÷1.019 | ×1.420 | — | — | 35.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.61% | ÷0.970 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.968 | 7.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.968 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.90% | ÷1.029 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 24.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.073 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 6.27% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.69% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.968 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.76% | ÷0.942 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.968 | 2.50% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 106, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .320 → .257; ISO .118 → .096; BABIP .352 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .