Danny Black
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 24 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 424 | .211/.290/.264 | 2 | 10 | 39 | — | .187/.247/.239 |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 384 | .215/.314/.311 | 4 | 9 | 47 | — | .191/.261/.269 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 120 | .214/.330/.296 | 0 | 2 | 49 | — | .200/.278/.277 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 466 | 415 | 116 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 81 | 2 | 32 | 10 | 280 | 341 | 383 | 725 | 104 | 333 | 17 | 8 | 319 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA | Jacksonville Suns | — | 38 | 34 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 265 | 324 | 353 | 677 | 88 | 375 | 29 | 8 | 299 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 330 | 293 | 92 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 27 | 68 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 314 | 378 | 396 | 774 | 82 | 405 | 21 | 8 | 343 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA | Jacksonville Suns | — | 359 | 315 | 63 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 74 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 200 | 284 | 260 | 544 | 60 | 255 | 21 | 10 | 251 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 65 | 60 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 267 | 323 | 283 | 606 | 17 | 372 | 26 | 8 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 132 | 121 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 26 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 198 | 265 | 289 | 554 | 91 | 237 | 20 | 8 | 254 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA | Jacksonville Suns | — | 252 | 210 | 47 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 57 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 224 | 340 | 324 | 664 | 100 | 296 | 23 | 14 | 302 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 28 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 95 | 296 | 190 | 487 | 95 | 167 | 32 | 21 | 239 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Jacksonville Suns | — | 92 | 77 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 247 | 341 | 325 | 666 | 78 | 328 | 21 | 12 | 295 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 466 | 431 | 104 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 113 | 2 | 32 | 10 | 241 | 280 | 327 | 607 | 86 | 304 | 24 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 38 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 229 | 270 | 314 | 585 | 86 | 346 | 37 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 330 | 300 | 79 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 101 | 3 | 17 | 7 | 263 | 316 | 333 | 649 | 70 | 379 | 31 | 6 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 359 | 326 | 61 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 88 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 187 | 247 | 239 | 486 | 52 | 243 | 25 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 132 | 124 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 177 | 227 | 242 | 469 | 65 | 228 | 25 | 6 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 252 | 222 | 44 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 69 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 198 | 279 | 284 | 563 | 86 | 272 | 27 | 10 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 28 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 87 | 222 | 174 | 396 | 87 | 146 | 39 | 14 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 92 | 81 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 235 | 295 | 309 | 604 | 74 | 311 | 26 | 8 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 466 | 431 | 104 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 113 | 2 | 32 | 10 | 241 | 280 | 327 | 607 | 86 | 314 | 24 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 466 | 415 | 116 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 81 | 2 | 32 | 10 | 280 | 341 | 383 | 725 | 104 | 333 | 17 | 8 | 319 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 335 | 88 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 115 | 3 | 19 | 8 | 263 | 314 | 334 | 648 | 72 | 395 | 31 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 368 | 327 | 101 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 30 | 79 | 3 | 19 | 8 | 309 | 372 | 391 | 764 | 83 | 402 | 21 | 8 | 339 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 424 | 386 | 71 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 104 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 184 | 245 | 233 | 478 | 49 | 246 | 25 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 424 | 375 | 79 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 91 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 211 | 290 | 264 | 554 | 53 | 273 | 21 | 9 | 256 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 384 | 346 | 66 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 102 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 191 | 261 | 269 | 530 | 78 | 260 | 27 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 384 | 331 | 71 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 47 | 83 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 215 | 314 | 311 | 625 | 97 | 273 | 22 | 12 | 286 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 120 | 104 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 202 | 278 | 279 | 557 | 77 | 304 | 29 | 9 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 120 | 98 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 28 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 214 | 330 | 296 | 626 | 82 | 300 | 23 | 14 | 282 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 466 | 440 | 104 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 113 | 2 | 32 | 10 | 236 | 280 | 320 | 600 | 84 | 304 | 24 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 368 | 340 | 88 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 115 | 3 | 19 | 8 | 259 | 314 | 329 | 643 | 71 | 376 | 31 | 6 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 424 | 390 | 71 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 104 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 182 | 245 | 231 | 475 | 49 | 243 | 25 | 7 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 384 | 348 | 66 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 102 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 190 | 261 | 267 | 528 | 78 | 257 | 27 | 8 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 120 | 108 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 194 | 278 | 269 | 547 | 74 | 272 | 29 | 9 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1762 | 1602 | 350 | 52 | 18 | 9 | 115 | 469 | 8 | 72 | 22 | 218 | 274 | 290 | 564 | 72 | 301 | 27 | 7 | 248 | 54 | -97 | +6 | +0 | +19 | +38 | -3.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 129 | 19 | 7 | 3 | 42 | 173 | 3 | 27 | 8 | 218 | 274 | 289 | 563 | 71 | 301 | 27 | 6 | 248 | 54 | -36 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2015 AAJacksonville Suns · 92 PAwOBA .288 → .258 (−30)K% 20.7% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.65% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.96% | ÷1.017 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 7.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.14% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×1.048 | ×0.978 | 22.99% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | ×1.048 | ×0.978 | 6.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.048 | ×0.978 | 1.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.973 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 93, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.
Result: wOBA .288 → .258; ISO .078 → .077; BABIP .328 → .311. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 28 PAwOBA .235 → .183 (−52)K% 32.1% → 40.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.14% | ÷1.016 | ×1.290 | — | — | 40.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 21.43% | ÷0.997 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 15.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.969 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.003 | 7.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.012 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.985 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 6.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 94, 2B 102, 3B 97, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .235 → .183; ISO .095 → .080; BABIP .167 → .146. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAJacksonville Suns · 252 PAwOBA .297 → .252 (−45)K% 22.6% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.62% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.995 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 9.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.40% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.012 | ×0.920 | ×1.024 | ×0.988 | 20.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.58% | ÷0.940 | ×0.910 | ×1.024 | ×0.988 | 4.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.61% | ÷1.064 | ×0.880 | ×1.024 | ×0.988 | 2.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.31% | ÷1.006 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.03% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 102, 2B 88, 3B 113, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.024.
Result: wOBA .297 → .252; ISO .100 → .090; BABIP .296 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 132 PAwOBA .248 → .211 (−37)K% 19.7% → 25.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.70% | ÷1.008 | ×1.290 | — | — | 25.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷1.007 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 5.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.95% | ÷0.980 | ×0.900 | ×1.046 | ×1.018 | 18.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.16% | ÷0.923 | ×0.810 | ×1.046 | ×1.018 | 2.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.046 | ×1.018 | 1.01% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.11% | ÷1.098 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 1.52% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 80, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.046.
Result: wOBA .248 → .211; ISO .091 → .072; BABIP .237 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAJacksonville Suns · 359 PAwOBA .245 → .215 (−30)K% 20.6% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.61% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.75% | ÷0.980 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 6.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.56% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.47% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.58% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×1.036 | ×0.998 | 20.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.07% | ÷1.029 | ×0.910 | ×1.036 | ×0.998 | 1.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.66% | ÷1.082 | ×0.880 | ×1.036 | ×0.998 | 1.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.036 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 0.64% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 116, K 105, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .245 → .215; ISO .060 → .051; BABIP .255 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 330 PAwOBA .335 → .283 (−52)K% 20.6% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.61% | ÷0.956 | ×1.420 | — | — | 30.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.88% | ÷0.971 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 6.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.84% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.00% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 29.73% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.11% | ÷0.977 | ×0.960 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 7.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.78% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.050 | ×0.988 | 1.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.939 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 105, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 91, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .335 → .283; ISO .082 → .069; BABIP .405 → .379. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAJacksonville Suns · 38 PAwOBA .300 → .256 (−44)K% 28.9% → 36.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.95% | ÷0.976 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.89% | ÷0.997 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷1.007 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 24.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.04% | ÷0.995 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 12.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.078 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.896 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 116, K 95, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .300 → .256; ISO .088 → .079; BABIP .375 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AGreensboro Grasshoppers · 466 PAwOBA .313 → .261 (−52)K% 17.4% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.38% | ÷0.958 | ×1.340 | — | — | 24.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.94% | ÷1.119 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.990 | 4.64% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.43% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.990 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.35% | ÷1.023 | ×0.920 | ×1.033 | ×0.990 | 24.23% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.39% | ÷0.982 | ×0.820 | ×1.033 | ×0.990 | 4.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.50% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×1.033 | ×0.990 | 1.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.50% | ÷1.143 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.990 | 1.06% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 129, 1B 105, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 92, BB 124 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.033.
Result: wOBA .313 → .261; ISO .104 → .087; BABIP .333 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .