Matt Adams

Pos1B

B/TL/R

Born1988-08-31

Age (2027)38

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2023

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2020	31	MLBATL	51	.184/.216/.347	2	0	54	-0.3
2021	32	MLBCOL	40	.167/.250/.194	0	0	18	-0.5
2023	34	AAAWSH	402	.246/.297/.430	17	0	32	—	.172/.209/.279
2024	35	No MLB games played
2025	36	No MLB games played
2026	37	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.7

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2019-2021

Barrel%83

xwOBA44

Avg EV38

Speed10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2009	20	ROK	Johnson City Cardinals	—	128	115	42	6	0	6	9	20	1	0	0	365	416	574	990	209	391	16	7	425	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	510	464	144	41	0	22	33	78	4	5	1	310	361	541	902	231	327	15	6	388	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	AA	Springfield Cardinals	—	513	463	139	23	2	32	40	90	4	0	1	300	361	566	927	266	308	18	8	398	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	89	80	20	6	0	4	3	28	0	1	0	250	277	475	752	225	296	31	3	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	91	86	21	6	0	2	5	24	0	0	0	244	286	384	669	140	317	26	5	298	88	-1	+0	-3	-7	+2	-0.9
2012	23	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	276	258	85	22	0	18	15	57	0	3	1	329	366	624	990	295	360	21	5	424	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	319	296	84	14	0	17	23	80	0	0	1	284	335	503	839	220	337	25	7	368	140	+15	-0	-5	-6	+7	1.1
2014	25	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	563	527	152	34	5	15	26	114	3	3	2	288	326	457	783	169	338	20	5	341	114	+9	-0	-10	-10	+12	0.0
2014	25	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	15	15	3	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	200	200	267	467	67	231	13	0	206	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	186	175	42	9	0	5	10	41	0	1	0	240	281	377	658	137	285	22	5	292	83	-4	+0	-2	-3	+4	-0.5
2016	27	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	327	297	74	18	0	16	25	81	2	0	1	249	312	471	783	222	286	25	8	341	120	+8	-0	-0	-6	+7	0.8
2016	27	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	20	16	3	1	0	1	4	3	0	0	0	188	350	438	787	250	167	15	20	353	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	367	339	93	22	1	20	23	88	1	0	0	274	322	522	844	248	311	24	6	364	126	+11	+0	-10	-7	+8	0.3
2018	29	MLB	St. Louis Cardinals	—	337	306	73	10	0	21	27	73	4	0	0	239	309	477	786	239	245	22	8	345	122	+9	+0	-4	-6	+7	0.6
2019	30	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	333	310	70	14	0	20	20	115	2	0	0	226	277	465	742	239	284	35	6	323	103	+1	+0	-3	-6	+7	-0.0
2020	31	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	51	49	9	2	0	2	2	18	0	0	0	184	216	347	563	163	241	35	4	248	54	-3	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.3
2021	32	MLB	Colorado Rockies	—	40	36	6	1	0	0	4	9	0	0	0	167	250	194	444	28	222	22	10	215	18	-4	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.5
2023	34	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	402	374	92	18	0	17	26	114	1	0	0	246	297	430	727	184	307	28	6	321	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	2614	2421	624	130	6	118	165	643	12	4	4	258	308	463	771	205	302	25	6	337	114	+44	-1	-39	-52	+57	0.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2009	20	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	128	118	34	4	0	5	6	28	1	0	0	288	328	449	777	161	325	22	5	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	510	476	119	28	0	17	21	105	4	5	1	250	287	416	703	166	273	21	4	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	AA MLE	Springfield Cardinals	—	513	478	127	18	2	26	25	110	4	0	1	266	308	475	783	209	286	21	5	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	91	86	21	6	0	2	5	24	0	0	0	244	286	384	669	140	317	26	5	299	88	-1	+0	-3	-7	+2	-0.9
2012	23	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	276	263	73	19	0	14	10	71	0	3	1	278	304	510	814	232	321	26	4	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	319	296	84	13	0	18	23	80	0	0	1	284	335	510	846	226	337	25	7	375	140	+15	-0	-5	-6	+7	1.1
2014	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	563	532	152	33	5	16	21	114	3	3	2	286	317	457	773	171	338	20	4	336	114	+9	-0	-10	-10	+12	0.0
2014	25	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	15	15	3	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	200	200	267	467	67	205	20	0	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	186	176	42	9	0	5	9	41	0	1	0	239	276	375	651	136	285	22	5	290	83	-4	+0	-2	-3	+4	-0.5
2016	27	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	327	298	74	17	0	17	24	81	2	0	1	248	309	477	785	228	286	25	7	345	120	+8	-0	-0	-6	+7	0.8
2016	27	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	20	17	3	1	0	1	3	4	0	0	0	176	300	412	712	235	144	20	15	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	367	344	93	22	1	20	18	88	1	0	0	270	309	515	823	244	311	24	5	354	126	+11	+0	-10	-7	+8	0.3
2018	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	337	309	75	10	0	23	24	73	4	0	0	243	306	498	804	256	245	22	7	348	122	+9	+0	-4	-6	+7	0.6
2019	30	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	333	311	70	14	0	20	19	115	2	0	0	225	274	463	737	238	284	35	6	320	103	+1	+0	-3	-6	+7	-0.0
2020	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	51	49	9	2	0	2	2	18	0	0	0	184	216	347	563	163	241	35	4	248	54	-3	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.3
2021	32	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	40	37	6	1	0	0	3	9	0	0	0	162	225	189	414	27	222	22	8	194	18	-4	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.5
2023	34	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	402	383	66	11	0	10	17	139	1	0	0	172	209	279	489	107	240	35	4	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	20	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	128	118	34	4	0	5	6	28	1	0	0	288	328	449	777	161	330	22	5	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	20	ROK RAW	Johnson City Cardinals	—	128	115	42	6	0	6	9	20	1	0	0	365	416	574	990	209	391	16	7	425	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	510	476	119	28	0	17	21	105	4	5	1	250	287	416	703	166	281	21	4	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	510	464	144	41	0	22	33	78	4	5	1	310	361	541	902	231	327	15	6	388	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	602	557	149	22	2	30	29	129	4	1	1	268	308	476	784	208	290	21	5	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	602	543	159	29	2	36	43	118	4	1	1	293	349	552	902	260	307	20	7	385	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	367	349	94	25	0	16	15	95	0	3	1	269	299	479	778	209	324	26	4	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	367	344	106	28	0	20	20	81	0	3	1	308	346	564	910	256	350	22	5	392	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	319	296	84	13	0	18	23	80	0	0	1	284	335	510	846	226	333	25	7	375	140	+15	-0	-5	-6	+7	1.1
2013	24	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	319	296	84	14	0	17	23	80	0	0	1	284	335	503	839	220	337	25	7	368	140	+15	-0	-5	-6	+7	1.1
2014	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	578	547	154	33	5	16	21	117	3	3	2	282	312	448	760	166	328	20	4	332	111	+7	-0	-10	-10	+13	-0.1
2014	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	578	542	155	35	5	15	26	116	3	3	2	286	322	452	774	166	335	20	4	337	111	+7	-0	-10	-10	+13	-0.1
2015	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	186	176	42	9	0	5	9	41	0	1	0	239	276	375	651	136	282	22	5	290	83	-4	+0	-2	-3	+4	-0.5
2015	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	186	175	42	9	0	5	10	41	0	1	0	240	281	377	658	137	285	22	5	292	83	-4	+0	-2	-3	+4	-0.5
2016	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	347	315	77	18	0	18	27	85	2	0	1	244	308	473	781	229	274	24	8	341	117	+7	-0	-0	-6	+8	0.8
2016	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	347	313	77	19	0	17	29	84	2	0	1	246	314	470	784	224	279	24	8	342	117	+7	-0	-0	-6	+8	0.8
2017	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	367	344	93	22	1	20	18	88	1	0	0	270	309	515	823	244	304	24	5	354	126	+11	+0	-10	-7	+8	0.3
2017	28	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	367	339	93	22	1	20	23	88	1	0	0	274	322	522	844	248	311	24	6	364	126	+11	+0	-10	-7	+8	0.3
2018	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	337	309	75	10	0	23	24	73	4	0	0	243	306	498	804	256	244	22	7	348	122	+9	+0	-4	-6	+7	0.6
2018	29	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	—	337	306	73	10	0	21	27	73	4	0	0	239	309	477	786	239	245	22	8	345	122	+9	+0	-4	-6	+7	0.6
2019	30	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	333	311	70	14	0	20	19	115	2	0	0	225	274	463	737	238	282	35	6	320	103	+1	+0	-3	-6	+7	-0.0
2019	30	MLB RAW	Washington Nationals	—	333	310	70	14	0	20	20	115	2	0	0	226	277	465	742	239	284	35	6	323	103	+1	+0	-3	-6	+7	-0.0
2020	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	51	49	9	2	0	2	2	18	0	0	0	184	216	347	563	163	241	35	4	248	54	-3	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.3
2020	31	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	—	51	49	9	2	0	2	2	18	0	0	0	184	216	347	563	163	241	35	4	248	54	-3	+0	+0	-1	+1	-0.3
2021	32	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	40	37	6	1	0	0	3	9	0	0	0	162	225	189	414	27	214	22	8	194	18	-4	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.5
2021	32	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	—	40	36	6	1	0	0	4	9	0	0	0	167	250	194	444	28	222	22	10	215	18	-4	+0	-1	-1	+1	-0.5
2023	34	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	402	383	66	11	0	10	17	139	1	0	0	172	209	279	489	107	238	35	4	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	34	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	—	402	374	92	18	0	17	26	114	1	0	0	246	297	430	727	184	307	28	6	321	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	20	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	—	128	120	34	4	0	5	6	28	1	0	0	283	328	442	770	158	325	22	5	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	A MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	510	480	119	28	0	17	21	105	4	5	1	248	287	412	700	165	273	21	4	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	602	564	149	22	2	30	29	129	4	1	1	264	308	470	778	206	286	21	5	337	114	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	367	349	94	25	0	16	15	95	0	3	1	269	299	479	778	209	320	26	4	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	319	293	84	13	0	18	23	80	0	0	1	287	335	515	851	229	337	25	7	375	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	578	549	154	33	5	16	21	117	3	3	2	281	312	446	758	166	335	20	4	332	111	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	186	175	42	9	0	5	9	41	0	1	0	240	276	377	653	137	285	22	5	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	347	315	77	18	0	18	27	85	2	0	1	244	308	473	781	229	278	24	8	341	117	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	367	345	93	22	1	20	18	88	1	0	0	270	309	513	822	243	311	24	5	354	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	—	337	306	75	10	0	23	24	73	4	0	0	245	306	503	809	258	245	22	7	348	122	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	—	333	309	70	14	0	20	19	115	2	0	0	227	274	466	740	239	284	35	6	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	31	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	51	49	9	2	0	2	2	18	0	0	0	184	216	347	563	163	241	35	4	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	32	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	—	40	37	6	1	0	0	3	9	0	0	0	162	225	189	414	27	222	22	8	194	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	34	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	—	402	381	66	11	0	10	17	139	1	0	0	173	209	281	490	108	240	35	4	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2614	2421	624	130	6	118	165	643	12	4	4	258	308	463	771	205	302	25	6	337	104	+44	-1	-39	-52	+57	0.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	602	154	32	1	29	41	160	3	1	1	256	307	457	763	201	300	25	6	337	104	+11	-0	-10	-13	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4567	4267	1072	212	8	200	234	1122	22	13	7	251	294	445	739	194	292	25	5	321	104	+44	-1	-39	-52	+57	0.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	607	152	30	1	28	33	160	3	2	1	250	292	442	733	191	292	25	5	321	104	+11	-0	-10	-13	+14	0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2023 AAARochester Red Wings · 402 PAwOBA .312 → .215 (−96)K% 28.4% → 34.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.36%	÷0.980	×1.200	—	—	34.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.22%	÷0.956	×0.690	—	×0.940	4.22%
HBP% /PA	0.25%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.22%
Singles /BIP	21.92%	÷0.996	×0.930	×0.961	×0.940	18.51%
Doubles /BIP	6.92%	÷1.137	×0.830	×0.961	×0.940	4.57%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.961	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.54%	÷1.058	×0.700	—	×0.940	4.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 96, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.

Result: wOBA .312 → .215; ISO .184 → .110; BABIP .307 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 20 PAwOBA .344 → .278 (−66)K% 15.0% → 19.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.00%	÷0.988	×1.290	—	—	19.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷0.983	×0.710	—	×0.992	14.33%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.989	×0.900	—	×0.992	6.94%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.941	×0.810	—	×0.992	6.57%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.951	×0.810	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷0.931	×0.780	—	×0.992	6.39%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 98, 2B 88, 3B 90, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .344 → .278; ISO .250 → .213; BABIP .167 → .144. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 15 PAwOBA .200 → .170 (−30)K% 13.3% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.33%	÷0.997	×1.290	—	—	17.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.00%	÷1.031	×0.710	—	×1.018	0.00%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	15.38%	÷1.034	×0.900	—	×1.018	13.63%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.917	×0.810	—	×1.018	6.92%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.036	×0.780	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 107, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 99, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .200 → .170; ISO .067 → .057; BABIP .231 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 276 PAwOBA .414 → .347 (−67)K% 20.7% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.65%	÷1.033	×1.290	—	—	25.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.07%	÷1.014	×0.710	—	×1.048	3.72%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.39%	÷0.985	×0.900	×0.957	×1.048	20.51%
Doubles /BIP	10.95%	÷0.916	×0.810	×0.957	×1.048	9.71%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.957	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.96%	÷0.993	×0.780	—	×1.048	7.37%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 97, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 107, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.

Result: wOBA .414 → .347; ISO .295 → .240; BABIP .360 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AASpringfield Cardinals · 513 PAwOBA .387 → .337 (−51)K% 17.5% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.54%	÷1.002	×1.220	—	—	21.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.43%	÷0.973	×0.700	—	×1.027	4.75%
HBP% /PA	0.78%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.70%
Singles /BIP	21.98%	÷0.988	×0.920	×1.027	×1.027	21.59%
Doubles /BIP	6.17%	÷1.110	×0.840	×1.027	×1.027	4.92%
Triples /BIP	0.54%	÷0.994	×0.940	×1.027	×1.027	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	8.58%	÷1.030	×0.800	—	×1.027	6.84%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 98, 2B 122, 3B 99, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .387 → .337; ISO .266 → .215; BABIP .308 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AQuad Cities River Bandits · 510 PAwOBA .382 → .302 (−79)K% 15.3% → 20.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.29%	÷1.010	×1.360	—	—	20.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷0.971	×0.690	—	—	4.18%
HBP% /PA	0.78%	—	×0.780	—	—	0.61%
Singles /BIP	20.98%	÷0.967	×0.920	×0.971	—	19.37%
Doubles /BIP	10.62%	÷1.162	×0.830	×0.971	—	7.36%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.910	×0.971	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.70%	÷1.027	×0.800	—	—	4.44%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 93, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 102, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .382 → .302; ISO .231 → .170; BABIP .327 → .273. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 ROKJohnson City Cardinals · 128 PAwOBA .423 → .332 (−91)K% 15.6% → 22.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.62%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	22.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.03%	÷1.000	×0.640	—	×0.985	4.43%
HBP% /PA	0.78%	—	×0.740	—	×0.985	0.57%
Singles /BIP	31.58%	÷1.000	×0.840	×1.037	×0.985	27.11%
Doubles /BIP	6.32%	÷1.000	×0.740	×1.037	×0.985	4.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.740	×1.037	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.32%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.985	4.98%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .423 → .332; ISO .209 → .160; BABIP .391 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .