Jordy Lara
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 23 | AA/A+/INTL3 orgs | 644 | .334/.401/.579 | 29 | 2 | 123 | — | .282/.329/.477 |
| 2015 | 24 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 514 | .236/.303/.368 | 7 | 0 | 64 | — | .220/.276/.339 |
| 2016 | 25 | AAMississippi B… | 167 | .226/.268/.348 | 4 | 0 | 36 | — | .196/.226/.291 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mariners | — | 154 | 114 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 31 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 202 | 389 | 342 | 731 | 140 | 259 | 20 | 21 | 334 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mariners | — | 263 | 209 | 40 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 44 | 69 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 191 | 342 | 349 | 692 | 158 | 237 | 26 | 17 | 314 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | ROK | Pulaski Mariners | — | 191 | 175 | 45 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 257 | 312 | 474 | 786 | 217 | 316 | 27 | 6 | 342 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK | Pulaski Mariners | — | 266 | 239 | 58 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 48 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 243 | 309 | 418 | 728 | 176 | 269 | 18 | 7 | 319 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 63 | 61 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 311 | 333 | 492 | 825 | 180 | 356 | 21 | 2 | 364 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A | Clinton LumberKings | — | 375 | 338 | 88 | 25 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 67 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 260 | 324 | 441 | 765 | 180 | 293 | 18 | 8 | 334 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 138 | 126 | 36 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 333 | 492 | 825 | 206 | 302 | 14 | 6 | 354 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ | High Desert Mavericks | — | 447 | 399 | 141 | 26 | 5 | 22 | 38 | 82 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 353 | 416 | 609 | 1.025 | 256 | 398 | 18 | 9 | 441 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | INTL | Aguilas Cibaenas | — | 59 | 47 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 298 | 441 | 553 | 994 | 255 | 367 | 24 | 20 | 436 | 181 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 494 | 443 | 107 | 27 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 85 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 242 | 311 | 377 | 688 | 135 | 281 | 17 | 7 | 306 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | INTL | Estrellas de Oriente | — | 20 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 105 | 158 | 263 | 53 | 143 | 30 | 0 | 109 | -40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 167 | 155 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 226 | 268 | 348 | 617 | 123 | 256 | 19 | 5 | 271 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 154 | 123 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 38 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 130 | 282 | 203 | 485 | 73 | 164 | 25 | 15 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 263 | 222 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 84 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 113 | 233 | 185 | 418 | 72 | 149 | 32 | 12 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 191 | 179 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 72 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 228 | 341 | 568 | 156 | 249 | 38 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 266 | 246 | 44 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 68 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 229 | 301 | 530 | 122 | 214 | 26 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 63 | 61 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 246 | 270 | 377 | 647 | 131 | 308 | 29 | 2 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 375 | 349 | 74 | 19 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 93 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 212 | 257 | 347 | 603 | 135 | 256 | 25 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 138 | 129 | 35 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 271 | 304 | 473 | 777 | 202 | 289 | 17 | 4 | 324 | 105 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | High Desert Mavericks | — | 447 | 410 | 117 | 20 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 119 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 285 | 337 | 478 | 815 | 193 | 350 | 27 | 6 | 347 | 121 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 494 | 454 | 100 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 27 | 107 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 276 | 339 | 615 | 119 | 266 | 22 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 167 | 158 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 196 | 226 | 291 | 517 | 95 | 226 | 22 | 4 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 154 | 123 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 38 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 130 | 282 | 203 | 485 | 73 | 179 | 25 | 15 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Mariners | — | 154 | 114 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 31 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 202 | 389 | 342 | 731 | 140 | 259 | 20 | 21 | 334 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 263 | 222 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 84 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 113 | 233 | 185 | 418 | 72 | 156 | 32 | 12 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK RAW | DSL Mariners | — | 263 | 209 | 40 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 44 | 69 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 191 | 342 | 349 | 692 | 158 | 237 | 26 | 17 | 314 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 191 | 179 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 72 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 228 | 341 | 568 | 156 | 265 | 38 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | ROK RAW | Pulaski Mariners | — | 191 | 175 | 45 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 257 | 312 | 474 | 786 | 217 | 316 | 27 | 6 | 342 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 266 | 246 | 44 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 68 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 229 | 301 | 530 | 122 | 217 | 26 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK RAW | Pulaski Mariners | — | 266 | 239 | 58 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 48 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 243 | 309 | 418 | 728 | 176 | 269 | 18 | 7 | 319 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 438 | 410 | 88 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 112 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 215 | 256 | 346 | 603 | 132 | 266 | 26 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 438 | 399 | 107 | 27 | 3 | 13 | 31 | 80 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 268 | 326 | 449 | 774 | 180 | 302 | 18 | 7 | 339 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 644 | 594 | 167 | 37 | 4 | 23 | 36 | 157 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 281 | 329 | 473 | 802 | 192 | 342 | 24 | 6 | 342 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 644 | 572 | 191 | 43 | 5 | 29 | 58 | 115 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 334 | 401 | 579 | 980 | 245 | 372 | 18 | 9 | 422 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 472 | 104 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 28 | 111 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 276 | 343 | 619 | 123 | 269 | 22 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 514 | 462 | 109 | 28 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 91 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 236 | 303 | 368 | 671 | 132 | 276 | 18 | 7 | 299 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 167 | 158 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 196 | 226 | 291 | 517 | 95 | 233 | 22 | 4 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 167 | 155 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 226 | 268 | 348 | 617 | 123 | 256 | 19 | 5 | 271 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 154 | 127 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 38 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 126 | 282 | 197 | 479 | 71 | 164 | 25 | 15 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 19 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 263 | 226 | 25 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 84 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 111 | 233 | 181 | 415 | 71 | 149 | 32 | 12 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 191 | 179 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 72 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 184 | 228 | 341 | 568 | 156 | 249 | 38 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | ROK MLE | Pulaski Mariners | — | 266 | 248 | 44 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 68 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 177 | 229 | 298 | 527 | 121 | 214 | 26 | 4 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 438 | 412 | 88 | 20 | 2 | 10 | 20 | 112 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 214 | 256 | 345 | 601 | 131 | 263 | 26 | 5 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 644 | 597 | 167 | 37 | 4 | 23 | 36 | 157 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 280 | 329 | 471 | 799 | 191 | 336 | 24 | 6 | 342 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 514 | 473 | 104 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 28 | 111 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 220 | 276 | 342 | 618 | 123 | 266 | 22 | 5 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 167 | 159 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 195 | 226 | 289 | 515 | 94 | 226 | 22 | 4 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2637 | 2404 | 508 | 117 | 15 | 59 | 163 | 678 | 31 | 17 | 11 | 211 | 270 | 346 | 616 | 135 | 265 | 26 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -104 | -1 | +0 | -47 | +57 | -9.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 593 | 126 | 29 | 4 | 15 | 40 | 167 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 212 | 271 | 351 | 622 | 138 | 266 | 26 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -26 | -0 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAMississippi Braves · 167 PAwOBA .265 → .221 (−45)K% 18.6% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.56% | ÷1.043 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.39% | ÷0.997 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 3.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.35% | ÷1.014 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 17.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.65% | ÷1.104 | ×0.910 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 4.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.002 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.084 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.38% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 103, 2B 121, 3B 130, K 109, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .265 → .221; ISO .123 → .095; BABIP .256 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAJackson Generals · 494 PAwOBA .301 → .268 (−33)K% 17.2% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.21% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.49% | ÷0.950 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.62% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.72% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×1.007 | ×1.012 | 18.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.54% | ÷1.032 | ×0.910 | ×1.007 | ×1.012 | 6.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.68% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.007 | ×1.012 | 1.67% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷0.890 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.78% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 95, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 95, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.
Result: wOBA .301 → .268; ISO .135 → .123; BABIP .281 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+High Desert Mavericks · 447 PAwOBA .432 → .347 (−85)K% 18.3% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.34% | ÷0.925 | ×1.340 | — | — | 26.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.28% | ÷0.961 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.76% | ÷0.981 | ×0.910 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 25.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.20% | ÷1.015 | ×0.820 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 6.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.58% | ÷1.001 | ×0.760 | ×0.997 | ×0.998 | 1.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.94% | ÷1.097 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.998 | 5.81% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 119, 1B 96, 2B 103, 3B 100, K 85, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .432 → .347; ISO .256 → .197; BABIP .398 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAJackson Generals · 138 PAwOBA .352 → .324 (−29)K% 13.8% → 17.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.77% | ÷0.968 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.80% | ÷1.083 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 3.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.82% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 15.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.08% | ÷0.955 | ×0.910 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 12.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.880 | ×1.002 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.74% | ÷0.930 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.30% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 91, 3B 95, K 94, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .352 → .324; ISO .206 → .195; BABIP .302 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AClinton LumberKings · 375 PAwOBA .328 → .263 (−65)K% 17.9% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.87% | ÷0.977 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.47% | ÷1.013 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.45% | ÷0.971 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | — | 17.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷1.049 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | — | 7.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.11% | ÷1.118 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | — | 0.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.69% | ÷0.964 | ×0.800 | — | — | 3.06% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 94, 2B 110, 3B 124, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .328 → .263; ISO .180 → .140; BABIP .293 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+High Desert Mavericks · 63 PAwOBA .353 → .268 (−85)K% 20.6% → 28.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.63% | ÷0.960 | ×1.340 | — | — | 28.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.59% | ÷1.037 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 1.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.59% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.038 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 25.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.990 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.012 | 3.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.083 | ×0.760 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.251 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 4.65% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 108, 2B 98, 3B 117, K 92, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .353 → .268; ISO .180 → .124; BABIP .356 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ROKPulaski Mariners · 266 PAwOBA .314 → .232 (−82)K% 18.0% → 25.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.05% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 25.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.77% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.985 | 4.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.88% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.985 | 1.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.008 | ×0.985 | 14.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.008 | ×0.985 | 5.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×1.008 | ×0.985 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.985 | 3.30% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .314 → .232; ISO .176 → .129; BABIP .269 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 ROKPulaski Mariners · 191 PAwOBA .334 → .231 (−103)K% 26.7% → 37.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.70% | ÷1.000 | ×1.420 | — | — | 37.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.640 | — | ×0.995 | 4.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.740 | — | ×0.995 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.998 | ×0.995 | 16.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.998 | ×0.995 | 7.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.000 | ×0.740 | ×0.998 | ×0.995 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.995 | 5.14% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .334 → .231; ISO .217 → .148; BABIP .316 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .