Luis Cessa

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 35 RHP 6'0" / 222 lbs AAA

Overview

AAASP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	30	MLBCIN	46	10	81	4.57	4.93	17.6%	8.3%	-0.4
2023	31	MIX2 levels	29	13	68	8.74	5.20	16.0%	9.3%	-0.5	K 14.2% · BB 8.8% · FIP 5.02
2024	32	AAAPIT	26	23	103	4.73	4.76	17.3%	9.6%	—	K 14.8% · BB 8.7% · FIP 5.18
2027PROJ	35	MLBPIT	59	0	62	4.61	4.60	20.8%	9.1%	-0.0
2028PROJ	36	MLBPIT	52	0	55	4.83	4.97	19.8%	9.7%	-0.3
2029PROJ	37	MLBPIT	46	0	48	5.16	5.37	18.7%	10.3%	-0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.9 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo14

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsIvan Maldonado (age 35) · Jean Machi (age 35) · Tiago Da Silva (age 34)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 104

ERA4.61

FIP4.60

K%20.8%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%11.8%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1491.9

Whiff%

p1014.6%

p108.3%

xwOBA vs

p100.433

CH-1.6

SL-4.1

FB-7.0

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	139	607	119	35	7	100%	5.6	16.5%	6.2%	10.4%	1.4%	4.52	3.23	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	139	607	119	35	7	100%	5.6	19.6%	5.8%	13.8%	1.2%	4.52	2.80	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	23	148	594	115	37	24	72%	4.6	18.0%	6.4%	11.5%	4.0%	3.66	4.60	+0.5
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	23	148	594	115	37	24	72%	4.6	19.4%	6.2%	13.1%	4.0%	3.66	4.41	+0.9
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	114	486	97	43	14	75%	4.8	18.3%	9.1%	9.2%	2.6%	3.86	4.15	+1.0
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	18	114	486	97	43	14	75%	4.8	20.0%	8.8%	11.1%	2.9%	3.86	4.12	+1.1
2018	26	MIX MLE	4 levels	25	13	83	346	77	22	6	52%	3.3	20.5%	5.8%	14.7%	1.9%	4.25	3.16	+1.8
2018	26	MIX RAW	4 levels	25	13	83	346	77	22	6	52%	3.3	22.3%	6.4%	15.9%	1.7%	4.25	2.98	+1.9
2019	27	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	43	0	81	343	75	30	14	0%	1.9	21.9%	8.7%	13.1%	3.8%	4.11	4.46	+0.1
2019	27	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	43	0	81	343	75	30	14	0%	1.9	21.9%	8.7%	13.1%	4.1%	4.11	4.61	-0.1
2020	28	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	16	0	22	93	17	7	2	0%	1.4	18.3%	7.5%	10.8%	2.0%	3.32	3.62	+0.2
2020	28	MLB RAW	New York Yankees	16	0	22	93	17	7	2	0%	1.4	18.3%	7.5%	10.8%	2.2%	3.32	3.70	+0.2
2021	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	53	0	65	261	54	18	5	0%	1.2	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	1.8%	2.51	3.20	+1.0
2021	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	53	0	65	261	54	18	5	0%	1.2	20.7%	6.9%	13.8%	1.9%	2.51	3.27	+1.0
2022	30	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	46	10	81	336	59	28	14	22%	1.8	17.6%	8.3%	9.2%	3.9%	4.57	4.79	-0.2
2022	30	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	46	10	81	336	59	28	14	22%	1.8	17.6%	8.3%	9.2%	4.2%	4.57	4.93	-0.4
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	13	68	332	53	31	12	45%	2.3	14.2%	8.8%	5.4%	3.7%	8.74	5.02	-0.4
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	13	68	332	53	31	12	45%	2.3	16.0%	9.3%	6.6%	3.6%	8.74	5.20	-0.5
2024	32	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	26	23	103	446	77	43	15	88%	3.9	14.8%	8.7%	6.2%	4.1%	4.73	5.18	—
2024	32	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	26	23	103	446	77	43	15	88%	3.9	14.8%	8.7%	6.2%	4.1%	4.73	5.18	—
2024	32	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	26	23	103	446	77	43	15	88%	3.9	17.3%	9.6%	7.6%	3.4%	4.73	4.76	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			208	35	425	1805	331	139	66	17%	2.0	18.3%	7.7%	10.6%	3.7%	4.43	4.54	+0.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	PIT	59	0	62	262	54	24	8	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.1%	11.8%	3.2%	4.61	4.60	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	PIT	53	0	55	233	46	23	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	9.7%	10.1%	3.5%	4.83	4.97	-0.3
2029	37	MLB MLE	PIT	46	0	48	204	38	21	8	0%	1.0	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	3.9%	5.16	5.37	-0.4
2030	38	MLB MLE	PIT	40	0	42	175	31	19	8	0%	1.0	17.5%	11.0%	6.5%	4.4%	5.55	5.81	-0.6
2028	36	MLB CTX	PIT	52	0	55	232	46	22	8	0%	1.1	19.8%	9.7%	10.1%	3.5%	4.83	4.97	-0.3
2029	37	MLB CTX	PIT	46	0	48	203	38	21	8	0%	1.0	18.7%	10.3%	8.4%	3.9%	5.16	5.37	-0.4
2030	38	MLB CTX	PIT	40	0	42	177	31	20	8	0%	1.1	17.5%	11.0%	6.5%	4.4%	5.55	5.81	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		346	35	570	2417	446	202	90	10%	1.6	18.4%	8.3%	10.1%	3.7%	4.61	4.64	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		121	12	200	848	156	71	32	10%	1.6	18.4%	8.3%	10.1%	3.7%	4.61	4.64	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		319	125	903	3844	686	291	114	39%	2.8	17.8%	7.6%	10.3%	3.0%	4.41	4.19	-1.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	28	200	852	152	64	25	39%	2.8	17.8%	7.6%	10.3%	3.0%	4.41	4.19	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Cessa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.60	20.8%	9.1%	3.2%	—	5.34	18.8%	8.5%	145	+0.74	—	—	—
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	68
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	68
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	67
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	66
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	62
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	62
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	61
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	335	60
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	56
Pete Walker R 2003 · 5.73 FIP	34	SW	5.73	12.0%	9.1%	4.5%	.267	4.70	14.0%	5.1%	114	-1.03	4.45	327	56
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	55
Yohan Pino R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	33	SP-	5.33	15.2%	3.6%	5.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	193	55
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	54
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	53
Toby Borland R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	35	SU	4.28	20.9%	8.1%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	248	53
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	52
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	52
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	52
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	52
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	51

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	53	18.7%	8.5%	1.42	4.61
Claude Raymond ('59-'71, 0 WAR*)	3.6	66	20.9%*	7.9%*	1.34*	4.45*
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Russ Springer ('10)	4.3	66	20.9%	9.4%	1.27	4.52
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Dennis Cook ('88-'02, 7 WAR*)	5.1	72	21.4%*	8.6%*	1.39*	4.02*