Junior Arias
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 22 | A+/ROK/INTL3 orgs | 146 | .242/.343/.347 | 3 | 17 | 45 | — | .188/.262/.268 |
| 2015 | 23 | A+/INTL2 orgs | 432 | .238/.284/.366 | 11 | 38 | 40 | — | .194/.233/.289 |
| 2016 | 24 | A+/A/INTL3 orgs | 315 | .247/.300/.443 | 13 | 14 | 63 | — | .208/.249/.387 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 17 | ROK | DSL Reds | — | 230 | 208 | 48 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 66 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 231 | 304 | 389 | 694 | 159 | 309 | 29 | 8 | 311 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK | AZL Reds | — | 212 | 195 | 56 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 58 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 287 | 338 | 482 | 820 | 195 | 379 | 27 | 6 | 357 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK | Billings Mustangs | — | 241 | 219 | 55 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 74 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 251 | 320 | 452 | 772 | 201 | 343 | 31 | 8 | 341 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 388 | 361 | 75 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 96 | 3 | 28 | 7 | 208 | 255 | 313 | 568 | 105 | 263 | 25 | 5 | 254 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 230 | 222 | 57 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 60 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 257 | 283 | 396 | 679 | 140 | 331 | 26 | 2 | 301 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A | Dayton Dragons | — | 290 | 271 | 77 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 72 | 3 | 40 | 10 | 284 | 324 | 469 | 793 | 185 | 353 | 25 | 4 | 345 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 77 | 70 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 271 | 338 | 429 | 766 | 157 | 327 | 23 | 6 | 343 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK | AZL Reds | — | 46 | 36 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 167 | 333 | 194 | 528 | 28 | 273 | 30 | 20 | 263 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 23 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 278 | 381 | 333 | 714 | 56 | 455 | 30 | 13 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | — | 409 | 383 | 93 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 106 | 3 | 37 | 9 | 243 | 287 | 379 | 666 | 136 | 306 | 26 | 5 | 296 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 23 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 143 | 217 | 143 | 360 | 176 | 17 | 9 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ | San Jose Giants | — | 31 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 179 | 258 | 179 | 437 | 312 | 39 | 10 | 213 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 24 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 223 | 207 | 57 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 66 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 275 | 324 | 507 | 832 | 232 | 351 | 30 | 5 | 362 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | INTL | Gigantes del Cibao | — | 61 | 56 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 179 | 233 | 339 | 573 | 161 | 216 | 30 | 7 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 230 | 213 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 80 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 131 | 196 | 211 | 407 | 80 | 195 | 35 | 6 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 212 | 199 | 41 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 84 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 206 | 248 | 332 | 579 | 126 | 318 | 40 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 241 | 226 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 107 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 164 | 216 | 288 | 503 | 124 | 276 | 44 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 388 | 367 | 66 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 125 | 3 | 28 | 7 | 180 | 216 | 267 | 483 | 87 | 247 | 32 | 4 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 230 | 224 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 82 | 3 | 20 | 10 | 205 | 226 | 308 | 534 | 103 | 307 | 36 | 1 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 290 | 276 | 63 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 95 | 3 | 40 | 10 | 228 | 258 | 359 | 617 | 130 | 314 | 33 | 3 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | Bakersfield Blaze | — | 77 | 71 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 225 | 286 | 338 | 624 | 113 | 296 | 32 | 5 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 46 | 40 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 125 | 222 | 150 | 372 | 25 | 214 | 43 | 11 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 409 | 387 | 75 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 153 | 3 | 37 | 9 | 194 | 233 | 289 | 523 | 96 | 292 | 37 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 31 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 138 | 194 | 138 | 331 | 279 | 52 | 6 | 148 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2016 | 24 | A MLE | Augusta GreenJackets | — | 223 | 211 | 46 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 86 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 218 | 257 | 422 | 679 | 204 | 306 | 39 | 4 | 280 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 230 | 213 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 80 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 131 | 196 | 211 | 407 | 80 | 192 | 35 | 6 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Reds | — | 230 | 208 | 48 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 66 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 231 | 304 | 389 | 694 | 159 | 309 | 29 | 8 | 311 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 212 | 199 | 41 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 84 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 206 | 248 | 332 | 579 | 126 | 330 | 40 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Reds | — | 212 | 195 | 56 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 58 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 287 | 338 | 482 | 820 | 195 | 379 | 27 | 6 | 357 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 241 | 226 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 107 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 164 | 216 | 288 | 503 | 124 | 281 | 44 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK RAW | Billings Mustangs | — | 241 | 219 | 55 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 74 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 251 | 320 | 452 | 772 | 201 | 343 | 31 | 8 | 341 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 388 | 367 | 66 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 125 | 3 | 28 | 7 | 180 | 216 | 267 | 483 | 87 | 253 | 32 | 4 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 388 | 361 | 75 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 96 | 3 | 28 | 7 | 208 | 255 | 313 | 568 | 105 | 263 | 25 | 5 | 254 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 520 | 500 | 108 | 18 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 178 | 6 | 60 | 20 | 216 | 242 | 332 | 574 | 116 | 313 | 34 | 2 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 520 | 493 | 134 | 24 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 132 | 6 | 60 | 20 | 272 | 306 | 436 | 742 | 164 | 343 | 25 | 3 | 325 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 146 | 130 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 54 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 177 | 252 | 246 | 498 | 69 | 284 | 37 | 8 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 146 | 124 | 30 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 39 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 242 | 343 | 347 | 689 | 105 | 329 | 27 | 12 | 312 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 432 | 409 | 80 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 161 | 3 | 38 | 10 | 196 | 235 | 293 | 528 | 98 | 298 | 37 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 432 | 404 | 96 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 23 | 110 | 3 | 38 | 10 | 238 | 284 | 366 | 650 | 129 | 298 | 25 | 5 | 290 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 315 | 298 | 61 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 127 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 205 | 243 | 376 | 619 | 171 | 304 | 40 | 4 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 315 | 291 | 72 | 12 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 96 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 247 | 300 | 443 | 744 | 196 | 321 | 30 | 6 | 326 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Reds | — | 230 | 211 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 80 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 133 | 196 | 213 | 409 | 81 | 195 | 35 | 6 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Reds | — | 212 | 199 | 41 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 84 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 206 | 248 | 332 | 579 | 126 | 318 | 40 | 4 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | Billings Mustangs | — | 241 | 224 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 107 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 165 | 216 | 290 | 506 | 125 | 276 | 44 | 5 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | A MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 388 | 368 | 66 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 125 | 3 | 28 | 7 | 179 | 216 | 266 | 482 | 87 | 247 | 32 | 4 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 520 | 498 | 108 | 18 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 178 | 6 | 60 | 20 | 217 | 242 | 333 | 575 | 116 | 311 | 34 | 2 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 146 | 132 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 54 | 2 | 17 | 5 | 174 | 252 | 242 | 494 | 68 | 265 | 37 | 8 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 432 | 408 | 80 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 161 | 3 | 38 | 10 | 196 | 235 | 294 | 529 | 98 | 292 | 37 | 4 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 315 | 297 | 61 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 127 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 205 | 243 | 377 | 620 | 172 | 303 | 40 | 4 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2484 | 2342 | 444 | 70 | 20 | 50 | 100 | 916 | 26 | 178 | 62 | 190 | 231 | 301 | 532 | 111 | 285 | 37 | 4 | 230 | 42 | -172 | +11 | +0 | +9 | +54 | -10.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 613 | 116 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 26 | 240 | 7 | 47 | 16 | 189 | 231 | 299 | 529 | 109 | 285 | 37 | 4 | 230 | 42 | -45 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 AAugusta GreenJackets · 223 PAwOBA .353 → .280 (−73)K% 29.6% → 38.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.60% | ÷1.025 | ×1.340 | — | — | 38.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.38% | ÷1.020 | ×0.660 | — | ×0.980 | 3.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.980 | 1.02% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.11% | ÷1.054 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×0.980 | 20.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.38% | ÷0.944 | ×0.820 | ×1.011 | ×0.980 | 5.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.919 | ×0.940 | ×1.011 | ×0.980 | 2.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.80% | ÷0.834 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.980 | 7.51% |
Factors used: league row SAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 111, 2B 89, 3B 84, K 105, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .353 → .280; ISO .232 → .198; BABIP .351 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+San Jose Giants · 31 PAwOBA .209 → .148 (−61)K% 38.7% → 52.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 38.71% | ÷0.998 | ×1.340 | — | — | 51.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.68% | ÷0.992 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 6.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.25% | ÷1.008 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 27.87% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.951 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 102, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .209 → .148; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .312 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Daytona Tortugas · 409 PAwOBA .289 → .231 (−58)K% 25.9% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.92% | ÷0.986 | ×1.420 | — | — | 37.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.13% | ÷0.934 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.998 | 4.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.73% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.998 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.19% | ÷0.969 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 23.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.97% | ÷0.988 | ×0.960 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 3.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.44% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.025 | ×0.998 | 1.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.97% | ÷1.047 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.33% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 94, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 97, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .289 → .231; ISO .136 → .099; BABIP .306 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 77 PAwOBA .334 → .253 (−81)K% 23.4% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.38% | ÷0.961 | ×1.340 | — | — | 32.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.49% | ÷0.944 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 4.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.60% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 2.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.92% | ÷1.031 | ×0.910 | ×1.045 | ×1.012 | 25.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.005 | ×0.820 | ×1.045 | ×1.012 | 3.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×1.045 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.77% | ÷1.421 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 3.78% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 184, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 92, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.
Result: wOBA .334 → .253; ISO .157 → .097; BABIP .327 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKAZL Reds · 46 PAwOBA .258 → .170 (−88)K% 30.4% → 43.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.43% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 43.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 11.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 18.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 3.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .258 → .170; ISO .028 → .018; BABIP .273 → .214. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ADayton Dragons · 290 PAwOBA .334 → .263 (−71)K% 24.8% → 32.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.83% | ÷1.025 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.79% | ÷1.015 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 2.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.63% | ÷1.057 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | ×1.015 | 23.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.03% | ÷1.004 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | ×1.015 | 5.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.01% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.022 | ×1.015 | 2.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.03% | ÷1.164 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.51% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 111, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 105, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .334 → .263; ISO .185 → .136; BABIP .353 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 230 PAwOBA .292 → .231 (−61)K% 26.1% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.09% | ÷0.977 | ×1.340 | — | — | 35.79% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.17% | ÷1.101 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 1.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.30% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.46% | ÷0.991 | ×0.910 | ×1.026 | ×1.027 | 22.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.034 | ×0.820 | ×1.026 | ×1.027 | 6.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷0.964 | ×0.760 | ×1.026 | ×1.027 | 1.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.09% | ÷1.107 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.027 | 2.63% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 98, 2B 107, 3B 93, K 95, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.
Result: wOBA .292 → .231; ISO .140 → .103; BABIP .331 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ADayton Dragons · 388 PAwOBA .248 → .207 (−40)K% 24.7% → 32.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.74% | ÷1.043 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.15% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 3.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.38% | ÷1.030 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 19.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.15% | ÷1.083 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 3.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.13% | ÷1.003 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.030 | 1.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.64% | ÷0.943 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.31% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 106, 2B 117, 3B 101, K 109, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .248 → .207; ISO .105 → .086; BABIP .263 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .