Arismendy Alcántara

PosCF

B/TS/R

Born1991-10-29

Age (2027)35

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2021

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2019	27	AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs	569	.282/.349/.469	16	28	90	—	.236/.289/.397
2020	28	INTLAguilas Cibae…	48	.205/.271/.386	1	3	82	—
2021	29	AAA/INTL2 orgs	282	.271/.336/.561	17	2	83	—	.214/.261/.429

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2015-2017

Speed90

Barrel%10

xwOBA10

Avg EV10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2009	17	ROK	DSL Cubs 1	—	293	258	71	11	8	3	30	47	1	20	2	275	353	415	768	140	322	16	10	339	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A	Peoria Chiefs	—	390	369	100	14	5	2	16	76	1	8	8	271	303	352	655	81	337	19	4	291	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+	Daytona Cubs	—	359	331	100	13	7	7	19	61	2	25	4	302	344	447	791	145	347	17	5	344	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	20	12	4	1	0	1	4	2	0	0	0	333	500	667	1.167	333	333	10	20	398	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AA	Tennessee Smokies	—	571	494	134	36	4	15	62	125	2	31	6	271	355	451	806	180	332	22	11	350	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	54	50	10	1	0	1	2	13	0	2	1	200	231	280	511	80	250	24	4	222	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	300	278	57	11	2	10	17	93	2	8	5	205	256	367	623	162	266	31	6	274	71	-10	-0	+4	+3	+6	0.2
2014	22	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	366	335	103	25	11	10	25	83	0	21	3	307	356	537	893	230	380	23	7	382	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	77	68	22	1	1	4	7	15	1	3	1	324	395	544	939	221	367	19	9	407	161	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	32	26	2	0	0	0	5	11	0	1	0	77	226	77	303		133	34	16	166	-2	-4	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.2
2015	23	AAA	Iowa Cubs	—	499	454	105	20	10	12	35	125	0	16	6	231	286	399	685	167	291	25	7	297	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	132	116	30	3	5	0	14	29	0	6	3	259	338	371	709	112	341	22	11	315	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	MLB	Oakland Athletics	—	19	19	4	1	0	0	0	8	0	3	3	211	211	263	474	53	364	42	0	210	28	-2	-1	+0	+2	+0	0.0
2016	24	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	433	398	110	19	10	11	29	118	1	32	6	276	327	457	784	181	364	27	7	341	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+	Stockton Ports	—	27	26	8	3	1	1	1	9	0	0	0	308	333	615	949	308	438	33	4	406	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	108	105	18	3	1	1	2	38	0	2	0	171	187	248	435	76	258	35	2	192	15	-11	+0	+2	+1	+2	-0.6
2017	25	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	68	61	10	3	3	0	7	19	0	0	1	164	250	311	561	148	238	28	10	253	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	45	43	6	1	0	1	2	21	0	2	0	140	178	233	410	93	238	47	4	186	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	23	20	3	0	1	0	2	6	0	3	0	150	227	250	477	100	200	26	9	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	339	303	89	14	6	13	32	84	0	16	2	294	361	508	869	215	364	25	9	377	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	112	99	26	7	0	2	11	27	1	5	1	263	339	394	733	131	343	24	10	330	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	INTL	Tigres del Licey	—	118	105	28	8	3	1	9	24	0	7	0	267	325	429	753	162	329	20	8	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	48	44	9	1	2	1	4	10	0	3	0	205	271	386	657	182	242	21	8	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA	Sacramento River Cats	—	255	232	65	10	5	17	21	82	0	2	0	280	340	586	926	306	356	32	8	395	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	INTL	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	27	23	4	3	0	0	4	6	0	0	0	174	296	304	601	130	235	22	15	280	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	459	428	81	15	3	11	24	150	2	14	8	189	236	315	551	126	260	33	5	245	52	-26	-0	+4	+8	+10	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2009	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 1	—	293	267	48	7	5	1	21	57	1	20	2	180	242	255	497	75	215	19	7	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	390	374	90	12	5	2	11	101	1	8	8	241	264	316	580	75	316	26	3	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ MLE	Daytona Cubs	—	359	335	90	11	5	5	15	82	2	25	4	269	304	376	680	107	327	23	4	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AA MLE	Tennessee Smokies	—	571	518	132	36	4	14	38	158	2	31	6	255	308	421	729	166	323	28	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	300	278	57	11	2	10	17	93	2	8	5	205	256	367	623	162	266	31	6	274	71	-10	-0	+4	+3	+6	0.2
2014	22	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	366	345	85	18	8	9	15	108	0	21	3	246	278	423	701	177	321	30	4	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	32	26	2	0	0	0	5	11	0	1	0	77	226	77	303		133	34	16	165	-2	-4	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.2
2015	23	AAA MLE	Iowa Cubs	—	499	463	94	17	9	10	26	153	0	16	6	203	245	343	589	140	271	31	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	—	19	19	4	1	0	0	0	8	0	3	3	211	211	263	474	53	364	42	0	209	28	-2	-1	+0	+2	+0	0.0
2016	24	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	433	405	90	16	7	10	22	152	1	32	6	222	264	370	634	148	320	35	5	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	—	27	26	6	2	1	1	1	12	0	0	0	231	259	500	759	269	374	44	4	288	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	108	105	18	3	1	1	2	38	0	2	0	171	187	248	435	76	258	35	2	190	15	-11	+0	+2	+1	+2	-0.6
2017	25	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	68	64	9	3	3	0	4	24	0	0	1	141	191	281	472	141	219	35	6	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	339	313	75	10	6	11	22	99	0	16	2	240	290	415	705	176	307	29	6	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	112	103	23	6	0	2	8	30	1	5	1	223	286	340	626	117	293	27	7	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	Sacramento River Cats	—	255	238	51	8	5	11	15	95	0	2	0	214	261	429	689	214	292	37	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 1	—	293	267	48	7	5	1	21	57	1	20	2	180	242	255	497	75	222	19	7	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs 1	—	293	258	71	11	8	3	30	47	1	20	2	275	353	415	768	140	322	16	10	339	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	390	374	90	12	5	2	11	101	1	8	8	241	264	316	580	75	325	26	3	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A RAW	Peoria Chiefs	—	390	369	100	14	5	2	16	76	1	8	8	271	303	352	655	81	337	19	4	291	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	379	350	95	12	5	5	16	87	2	25	4	271	307	377	684	106	342	23	4	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	379	343	104	14	7	8	23	63	2	25	4	303	351	455	805	152	347	17	6	346	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	625	567	143	39	4	15	41	173	2	33	7	252	305	414	719	162	334	28	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AA RAW	2 teams	—	625	544	144	37	4	16	64	138	2	33	7	265	344	436	780	171	325	22	10	339	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	743	694	158	32	11	21	36	224	3	32	9	228	269	396	665	169	302	30	5	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	743	681	182	37	14	24	49	191	3	32	9	267	319	468	788	201	335	26	7	341	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	663	611	121	21	11	13	39	205	0	23	9	198	246	332	578	134	272	31	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	663	596	137	23	15	12	54	165	0	23	9	230	294	379	673	149	296	25	8	294	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	479	451	99	19	8	10	22	171	1	35	9	220	257	364	621	144	326	36	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	479	443	122	23	11	12	30	135	1	35	9	275	323	458	781	183	368	28	6	340	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	221	212	34	7	5	1	8	77	0	4	1	160	191	255	446	94	246	35	4	193	17	-22	+0	+2	+1	+5	-1.5
2017	25	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	221	209	34	7	4	2	11	78	0	4	1	163	205	263	468	100	248	35	5	209	17	-22	+0	+2	+1	+5	-1.5
2018	26	INTL MLE	Tigres del Licey	—	23	20	3	0	1	0	2	6	0	3	0	150	227	250	477	100	200	26	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	INTL RAW	Tigres del Licey	—	23	20	3	0	1	0	2	6	0	3	0	150	227	250	477	100	200	26	9	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	569	522	124	21	8	16	38	163	1	28	3	238	291	400	691	163	310	29	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	569	507	143	29	9	16	52	135	1	28	3	282	349	469	819	187	352	24	9	356	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	INTL MLE	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	48	44	9	1	2	1	4	10	0	3	0	205	271	386	657	182	242	21	8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	28	INTL RAW	Aguilas Cibaenas	—	48	44	9	1	2	1	4	10	0	3	0	205	271	386	657	182	242	21	8	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	282	264	56	9	5	12	16	105	0	2	0	212	257	420	678	208	295	37	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	282	255	69	13	5	17	25	88	0	2	0	271	336	561	896	290	342	31	9	384	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs 1	—	293	269	48	7	5	1	21	57	1	20	2	178	242	253	495	74	215	19	7	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A MLE	Peoria Chiefs	—	390	375	90	12	5	2	11	101	1	8	8	240	264	315	579	75	316	26	3	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	379	358	95	12	5	5	16	87	2	25	4	265	307	369	676	103	327	23	4	293	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	AA MLE	2 teams	—	625	577	143	39	4	15	41	173	2	33	7	248	305	407	712	159	323	28	7	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	743	698	158	32	11	21	36	224	3	32	9	226	269	394	663	168	296	30	5	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	663	619	121	21	11	13	39	205	0	23	9	195	246	328	574	132	263	31	6	248	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	479	453	99	19	8	10	22	171	1	35	9	219	257	362	619	143	325	36	5	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	221	211	34	7	5	1	8	77	0	4	1	161	191	256	447	95	243	35	4	193	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	569	525	124	21	8	16	38	163	1	28	3	236	291	398	689	162	304	29	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	282	264	56	9	5	12	16	105	0	2	0	212	257	420	678	208	292	37	6	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	459	428	81	15	3	11	24	150	2	14	8	189	236	315	551	126	260	33	5	245	68	-26	-0	+4	+8	+10	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	606	115	21	4	16	34	212	3	20	11	190	236	317	553	127	260	33	5	245	68	-37	-1	+6	+11	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	4715	4376	980	180	70	97	254	1379	11	216	52	224	268	364	632	140	301	29	5	268	68	-26	-0	+4	+8	+10	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	603	135	25	10	13	35	190	2	30	7	224	269	363	632	139	302	29	5	268	68	-37	-1	+6	+11	+14	-0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2021 AAASacramento River Cats · 255 PAwOBA .387 → .292 (−95)K% 32.2% → 37.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.16%	÷1.034	×1.200	—	—	37.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.24%	÷0.956	×0.690	—	×0.972	5.78%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.00%	÷1.049	×0.930	×0.971	×0.972	18.41%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷0.916	×0.830	×0.971	×0.972	5.70%
Triples /BIP	3.33%	÷0.900	×0.920	×0.971	×0.972	3.22%
Home runs /BIP	11.33%	÷0.995	×0.700	—	×0.972	7.75%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 110, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 107, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.

Result: wOBA .387 → .292; ISO .306 → .221; BABIP .356 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASyracuse Mets · 339 PAwOBA .369 → .306 (−63)K% 24.8% → 29.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.78%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	29.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.14%	÷0.966	×0.690	—	×0.992	6.48%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.57%	÷1.042	×0.930	×0.966	×0.992	21.87%
Doubles /BIP	6.39%	÷1.060	×0.830	×0.966	×0.992	4.80%
Triples /BIP	2.74%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.966	×0.992	2.83%
Home runs /BIP	5.94%	÷0.960	×0.840	—	×0.992	5.15%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 108, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 104, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.966.

Result: wOBA .369 → .306; ISO .215 → .187; BABIP .364 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 112 PAwOBA .321 → .264 (−57)K% 24.1% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.11%	÷1.083	×1.220	—	—	27.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.82%	÷0.942	×0.700	—	×0.968	7.07%
HBP% /PA	0.89%	—	×0.850	—	×0.968	0.73%
Singles /BIP	23.61%	÷1.026	×0.970	×0.950	×0.968	20.53%
Doubles /BIP	9.72%	÷0.945	×0.860	×0.950	×0.968	8.14%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.950	×0.968	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.78%	÷1.012	×0.780	—	×0.968	2.07%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 117, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .321 → .264; ISO .131 → .106; BABIP .343 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 68 PAwOBA .247 → .198 (−49)K% 27.9% → 34.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.94%	÷0.979	×1.220	—	—	34.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.29%	÷1.095	×0.680	—	×0.988	6.31%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.840	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	9.52%	÷1.018	×0.920	×1.016	×0.988	8.64%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷0.997	×0.910	×1.016	×0.988	6.54%
Triples /BIP	7.14%	÷0.943	×0.880	×1.016	×0.988	6.68%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.399	×0.800	—	×0.988	0.00%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 180, 1B 104, 2B 99, 3B 89, K 96, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .247 → .198; ISO .148 → .131; BABIP .238 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANashville Sounds · 433 PAwOBA .334 → .272 (−62)K% 27.3% → 35.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.25%	÷1.004	×1.290	—	—	35.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.70%	÷0.979	×0.710	—	×1.033	5.02%
HBP% /PA	0.23%	—	×0.980	—	×1.033	0.23%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.035	×0.900	×0.983	×1.033	22.08%
Doubles /BIP	6.79%	÷0.898	×0.810	×0.983	×1.033	6.21%
Triples /BIP	3.57%	÷1.015	×0.810	×0.983	×1.033	2.89%
Home runs /BIP	3.93%	÷0.856	×0.780	—	×1.033	3.70%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 107, 2B 80, 3B 103, K 101, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.983.

Result: wOBA .334 → .272; ISO .181 → .150; BABIP .364 → .320. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Stockton Ports · 27 PAwOBA .394 → .288 (−106)K% 33.3% → 43.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷1.035	×1.340	—	—	43.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.70%	÷1.065	×0.710	—	×0.978	2.41%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×0.978	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.65%	÷0.978	×0.910	—	×0.978	16.06%
Doubles /BIP	17.65%	÷0.939	×0.820	—	×0.978	15.07%
Triples /BIP	5.88%	÷0.990	×0.760	—	×0.978	4.42%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.066	×0.920	—	×0.978	4.96%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 98, K 107, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .394 → .288; ISO .308 → .219; BABIP .438 → .374. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAIowa Cubs · 499 PAwOBA .291 → .253 (−38)K% 25.1% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.05%	÷1.051	×1.290	—	—	30.74%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.01%	÷0.996	×0.710	—	×1.048	5.24%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.15%	÷1.008	×0.900	×1.022	×1.048	18.31%
Doubles /BIP	6.08%	÷0.984	×0.810	×1.022	×1.048	5.36%
Triples /BIP	3.04%	÷0.948	×0.810	×1.022	×1.048	2.78%
Home runs /BIP	3.65%	÷0.916	×0.780	—	×1.048	3.25%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 97, 3B 90, K 110, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .291 → .253; ISO .167 → .146; BABIP .291 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAAIowa Cubs · 366 PAwOBA .374 → .294 (−80)K% 22.7% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.68%	÷0.996	×1.290	—	—	29.37%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.83%	÷1.249	×0.710	—	×1.050	4.08%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.980	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.62%	÷1.021	×0.900	×0.989	×1.050	20.71%
Doubles /BIP	9.92%	÷1.111	×0.810	×0.989	×1.050	7.51%
Triples /BIP	4.37%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.989	×1.050	3.19%
Home runs /BIP	3.97%	÷0.929	×0.780	—	×1.050	3.50%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 104, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 99, BB 150 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .374 → .294; ISO .230 → .177; BABIP .380 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .