Michael Soto
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 22 | A/ROK2 orgs | 269 | .290/.360/.492 | 9 | 5 | 75 | — | .230/.277/.383 |
| 2015 | 23 | A+OAK | 460 | .229/.279/.355 | 9 | 8 | 30 | — | .186/.225/.268 |
| 2016 | 24 | ABeloit Snappe… | 142 | .169/.234/.215 | 1 | 1 | -13 | — | .127/.170/.164 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 17 | ROK | DSL Athletics | — | 189 | 165 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 40 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 224 | 319 | 309 | 628 | 85 | 285 | 21 | 12 | 291 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK | DSL Athletics | — | 254 | 210 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 63 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 238 | 355 | 357 | 712 | 119 | 304 | 25 | 14 | 321 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK | AZL Athletics | — | 76 | 67 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 293 | 418 | 711 | 209 | 234 | 24 | 11 | 312 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK | AZL Athletics | — | 112 | 103 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 282 | 327 | 524 | 852 | 243 | 329 | 22 | 6 | 363 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A | Beloit Snappers | — | 182 | 164 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 34 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 274 | 335 | 482 | 817 | 207 | 302 | 19 | 8 | 353 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK | AZL Athletics | — | 87 | 74 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 324 | 412 | 514 | 925 | 189 | 373 | 17 | 13 | 400 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Stockton Ports | — | 460 | 428 | 98 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 113 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 229 | 279 | 355 | 635 | 126 | 289 | 25 | 6 | 284 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A | Beloit Snappers | — | 142 | 130 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 234 | 215 | 449 | 46 | 239 | 30 | 8 | 211 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2009 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 189 | 173 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 49 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 145 | 213 | 191 | 404 | 46 | 190 | 26 | 7 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 254 | 221 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 77 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 145 | 238 | 204 | 442 | 59 | 192 | 30 | 9 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics | — | 76 | 70 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 200 | 271 | 471 | 129 | 182 | 34 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics | — | 112 | 106 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 227 | 358 | 586 | 160 | 257 | 32 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 182 | 169 | 38 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 225 | 268 | 379 | 647 | 154 | 268 | 26 | 5 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics | — | 87 | 79 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 241 | 294 | 392 | 687 | 152 | 285 | 25 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 460 | 436 | 81 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 141 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 186 | 225 | 268 | 493 | 83 | 255 | 31 | 4 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 142 | 134 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 127 | 170 | 164 | 334 | 37 | 207 | 41 | 5 | 149 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 189 | 173 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 49 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 145 | 213 | 191 | 404 | 46 | 195 | 26 | 7 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Athletics | — | 189 | 165 | 37 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 40 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 224 | 319 | 309 | 628 | 85 | 285 | 21 | 12 | 291 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 254 | 221 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 77 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 145 | 238 | 204 | 442 | 59 | 203 | 30 | 9 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Athletics | — | 254 | 210 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 63 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 238 | 355 | 357 | 712 | 119 | 304 | 25 | 14 | 321 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics | — | 76 | 70 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 143 | 200 | 271 | 471 | 129 | 186 | 34 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Athletics | — | 76 | 67 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 209 | 293 | 418 | 711 | 209 | 234 | 24 | 11 | 312 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics | — | 112 | 106 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 198 | 227 | 358 | 586 | 160 | 261 | 32 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK RAW | AZL Athletics | — | 112 | 103 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 282 | 327 | 524 | 852 | 243 | 329 | 22 | 6 | 363 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 269 | 248 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 69 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 230 | 277 | 371 | 647 | 141 | 287 | 26 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 269 | 238 | 69 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 49 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 290 | 360 | 492 | 851 | 202 | 324 | 18 | 10 | 368 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 460 | 436 | 81 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 141 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 186 | 225 | 268 | 493 | 83 | 260 | 31 | 4 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ RAW | Stockton Ports | — | 460 | 428 | 98 | 23 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 113 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 229 | 279 | 355 | 635 | 126 | 289 | 25 | 6 | 284 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 142 | 134 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 127 | 170 | 164 | 334 | 37 | 211 | 41 | 5 | 149 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A RAW | Beloit Snappers | — | 142 | 130 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 234 | 215 | 449 | 46 | 239 | 30 | 8 | 211 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 189 | 172 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 49 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 145 | 213 | 192 | 405 | 47 | 190 | 26 | 7 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 254 | 225 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 77 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 142 | 238 | 200 | 438 | 58 | 192 | 30 | 9 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics | — | 76 | 71 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 141 | 200 | 268 | 468 | 127 | 182 | 34 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 20 | ROK MLE | AZL Athletics | — | 112 | 107 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 227 | 355 | 582 | 159 | 257 | 32 | 4 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 269 | 251 | 57 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 69 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 227 | 277 | 367 | 643 | 139 | 273 | 26 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 460 | 435 | 81 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 141 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 186 | 225 | 269 | 494 | 83 | 255 | 31 | 4 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 142 | 134 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 127 | 170 | 164 | 334 | 37 | 207 | 41 | 5 | 149 | -13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1502 | 1388 | 243 | 51 | 6 | 20 | 89 | 456 | 7 | 22 | 7 | 175 | 228 | 264 | 492 | 89 | 240 | 30 | 6 | 217 | 33 | -120 | +2 | +0 | -27 | +33 | -11.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 601 | 106 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 39 | 197 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 176 | 230 | 268 | 498 | 92 | 241 | 30 | 6 | 217 | 33 | -52 | +1 | +0 | -12 | +14 | -5.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2016 ABeloit Snappers · 142 PAwOBA .207 → .149 (−58)K% 29.6% → 40.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.58% | ÷0.991 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.75% | ÷1.100 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 4.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.45% | ÷1.058 | ×0.920 | ×1.029 | ×0.970 | 17.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.41% | ÷0.940 | ×0.830 | ×1.029 | ×0.970 | 3.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.029 | ×0.970 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.14% | ÷1.025 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 0.86% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 112, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 98, BB 120 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .207 → .149; ISO .046 → .033; BABIP .239 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 A+Stockton Ports · 460 PAwOBA .277 → .212 (−65)K% 24.6% → 30.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.57% | ÷1.072 | ×1.340 | — | — | 30.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.87% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 4.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.32% | ÷0.959 | ×0.910 | ×1.004 | ×0.988 | 19.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.30% | ÷1.047 | ×0.820 | ×1.004 | ×0.988 | 5.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷0.926 | ×0.760 | ×1.004 | ×0.988 | 0.52% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷1.715 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 1.51% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 243, 1B 92, 2B 109, 3B 85, K 114, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .277 → .212; ISO .126 → .078; BABIP .289 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ABeloit Snappers · 182 PAwOBA .349 → .273 (−76)K% 18.7% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.68% | ÷0.974 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.24% | ÷1.003 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 5.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.77% | ÷0.987 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×0.990 | 19.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.92% | ÷1.060 | ×0.830 | ×1.018 | ×0.990 | 5.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.942 | ×0.910 | ×1.018 | ×0.990 | 1.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.38% | ÷1.155 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 3.69% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 131, 1B 97, 2B 112, 3B 88, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .349 → .273; ISO .207 → .148; BABIP .302 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 ROKAZL Athletics · 87 PAwOBA .395 → .289 (−106)K% 17.2% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.24% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 24.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 6.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.020 | ×0.965 | 19.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.020 | ×0.965 | 9.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.020 | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 2.55% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.
Result: wOBA .395 → .289; ISO .189 → .139; BABIP .373 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 ROKAZL Athletics · 112 PAwOBA .359 → .253 (−106)K% 22.3% → 32.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.32% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 3.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.038 | ×0.985 | 15.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.54% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.038 | ×0.985 | 8.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.038 | ×0.985 | 1.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 3.94% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .359 → .253; ISO .243 → .168; BABIP .329 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 ROKAZL Athletics · 76 PAwOBA .307 → .213 (−94)K% 23.7% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.68% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 34.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.24% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.027 | ×0.995 | 10.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.027 | ×0.995 | 7.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.027 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 4.75% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .307 → .213; ISO .209 → .147; BABIP .234 → .182. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2010 DSLDSL Athletics · 254 PAwOBA .321 → .207 (−114)K% 24.8% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.80% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 9.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.971 | ×0.995 | 16.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.44% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.971 | ×0.995 | 3.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.971 | ×0.995 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 1.59% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .321 → .207; ISO .119 → .063; BABIP .304 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2009 DSLDSL Athletics · 189 PAwOBA .279 → .185 (−94)K% 21.2% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.16% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.008 | ×1.008 | 14.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.40% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.008 | ×1.008 | 3.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.008 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.76% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .279 → .185; ISO .085 → .047; BABIP .285 → .190. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).