Martin Cervenka
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 25 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 429 | .252/.312/.442 | 16 | 2 | 71 | — | .220/.268/.370 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 228 | .241/.309/.320 | 4 | 2 | 35 | — | .201/.251/.263 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA/INTL2 orgs | 281 | .182/.288/.314 | 7 | 1 | 33 | — | .144/.212/.262 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 18 | ROK | AZL Indians | — | 61 | 55 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 233 | 218 | 452 | 55 | 220 | 23 | 8 | 209 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK | AZL Indians | — | 91 | 75 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 240 | 360 | 280 | 640 | 40 | 321 | 23 | 15 | 299 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A | Lake County Captains | — | 58 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 276 | 176 | 452 | 265 | 29 | 12 | 225 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 22 | A | Lake County Captains | — | 193 | 174 | 32 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 237 | 247 | 484 | 63 | 226 | 20 | 6 | 215 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A | Lake County Captains | — | 368 | 331 | 87 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 78 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 263 | 328 | 363 | 690 | 100 | 324 | 21 | 8 | 309 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 449 | 400 | 111 | 24 | 4 | 8 | 42 | 103 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 278 | 348 | 417 | 765 | 140 | 349 | 23 | 9 | 338 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 375 | 337 | 87 | 22 | 0 | 15 | 30 | 65 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 258 | 322 | 457 | 779 | 199 | 274 | 17 | 8 | 339 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 54 | 52 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 212 | 241 | 346 | 587 | 135 | 227 | 13 | 4 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Norfolk Tides | — | 49 | 43 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 372 | 438 | 442 | 879 | 70 | 516 | 24 | 10 | 390 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Bowie Baysox | — | 179 | 160 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 55 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 206 | 274 | 287 | 562 | 81 | 276 | 31 | 7 | 254 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 214 | 186 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 54 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 183 | 283 | 344 | 627 | 161 | 213 | 25 | 12 | 283 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | INTL | Toros del Este | — | 67 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 303 | 214 | 517 | 36 | 238 | 22 | 13 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 61 | 57 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 123 | 167 | 175 | 342 | 53 | 176 | 33 | 5 | 143 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 91 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 175 | 258 | 200 | 458 | 25 | 269 | 33 | 10 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 58 | 53 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 207 | 132 | 339 | 239 | 40 | 9 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 193 | 178 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 194 | 213 | 407 | 56 | 205 | 27 | 4 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 368 | 341 | 73 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 103 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 262 | 284 | 546 | 70 | 286 | 28 | 6 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 449 | 418 | 95 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 140 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 227 | 271 | 333 | 603 | 105 | 310 | 31 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 375 | 346 | 76 | 19 | 0 | 11 | 21 | 82 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 220 | 268 | 370 | 638 | 150 | 246 | 22 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Norfolk Tides | — | 49 | 45 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 375 | 400 | 775 | 67 | 460 | 31 | 6 | 320 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Bowie Baysox | — | 179 | 164 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 71 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 165 | 217 | 226 | 443 | 61 | 238 | 40 | 5 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 214 | 195 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 67 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 144 | 212 | 262 | 474 | 118 | 177 | 31 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 61 | 57 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 123 | 167 | 175 | 342 | 53 | 189 | 33 | 5 | 143 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK RAW | AZL Indians | — | 61 | 55 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 233 | 218 | 452 | 55 | 220 | 23 | 8 | 209 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 91 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 175 | 258 | 200 | 458 | 25 | 269 | 33 | 10 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK RAW | AZL Indians | — | 91 | 75 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 240 | 360 | 280 | 640 | 40 | 321 | 23 | 15 | 299 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 58 | 53 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 207 | 132 | 339 | 233 | 40 | 9 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2013 | 20 | A RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 58 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 276 | 176 | 452 | 265 | 29 | 12 | 225 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 193 | 178 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 157 | 194 | 213 | 407 | 56 | 211 | 27 | 4 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 193 | 174 | 32 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 237 | 247 | 484 | 63 | 226 | 20 | 6 | 215 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 368 | 341 | 73 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 103 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 262 | 284 | 546 | 70 | 292 | 28 | 6 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 368 | 331 | 87 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 78 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 263 | 328 | 363 | 690 | 100 | 324 | 21 | 8 | 309 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 449 | 418 | 95 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 140 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 227 | 271 | 333 | 603 | 105 | 318 | 31 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ RAW | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 449 | 400 | 111 | 24 | 4 | 8 | 42 | 103 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 278 | 348 | 417 | 765 | 140 | 349 | 23 | 9 | 338 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 429 | 397 | 86 | 21 | 0 | 12 | 24 | 94 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 217 | 265 | 360 | 625 | 144 | 249 | 22 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 429 | 389 | 98 | 26 | 0 | 16 | 32 | 72 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 252 | 312 | 442 | 754 | 190 | 267 | 17 | 7 | 329 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 228 | 209 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 86 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 191 | 242 | 249 | 491 | 57 | 298 | 38 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 228 | 203 | 49 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 67 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 241 | 309 | 320 | 630 | 79 | 331 | 29 | 8 | 283 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 255 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 141 | 212 | 251 | 463 | 110 | 183 | 31 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 281 | 242 | 44 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 69 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 182 | 288 | 314 | 602 | 132 | 219 | 25 | 12 | 275 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 18 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 61 | 58 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 167 | 172 | 339 | 52 | 176 | 33 | 5 | 143 | -17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | AZL Indians | — | 91 | 82 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 171 | 258 | 195 | 454 | 24 | 269 | 33 | 10 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 58 | 53 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 207 | 132 | 339 | 239 | 40 | 9 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 22 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 193 | 183 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 153 | 194 | 208 | 401 | 55 | 205 | 27 | 4 | 179 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 368 | 343 | 73 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 103 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 213 | 262 | 283 | 545 | 70 | 286 | 28 | 6 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | A+ MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 449 | 421 | 95 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 140 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 226 | 271 | 330 | 601 | 105 | 310 | 31 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 429 | 400 | 86 | 21 | 0 | 12 | 24 | 94 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 215 | 265 | 357 | 622 | 142 | 246 | 22 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 228 | 212 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 86 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 189 | 242 | 245 | 487 | 57 | 286 | 38 | 5 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 281 | 256 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 141 | 212 | 250 | 462 | 109 | 177 | 31 | 7 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2158 | 1988 | 386 | 70 | 7 | 32 | 127 | 636 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 194 | 245 | 285 | 530 | 91 | 262 | 29 | 6 | 236 | 46 | -140 | +0 | +0 | +39 | +47 | -5.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 599 | 116 | 21 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 192 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 194 | 244 | 285 | 530 | 92 | 261 | 30 | 6 | 236 | 46 | -42 | +0 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AAASyracuse Mets · 214 PAwOBA .276 → .206 (−70)K% 25.2% → 31.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.23% | ÷0.966 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.21% | ÷1.006 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 7.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 0.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.39% | ÷1.032 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 12.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.30% | ÷0.897 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 4.58% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 0.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.30% | ÷1.039 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 3.51% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 106, 2B 79, 3B 97, K 93, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .276 → .206; ISO .161 → .115; BABIP .213 → .177. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AABowie Baysox · 179 PAwOBA .253 → .193 (−60)K% 30.7% → 39.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.73% | ÷0.940 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.26% | ÷1.020 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 4.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.031 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 23.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.95% | ÷0.987 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.116 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.81% | ÷0.987 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 2.94% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 106, 2B 97, 3B 123, K 88, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .253 → .193; ISO .081 → .058; BABIP .276 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAANorfolk Tides · 49 PAwOBA .380 → .320 (−60)K% 24.5% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.49% | ÷0.973 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷1.103 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 6.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 41.94% | ÷1.033 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.003 | 37.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.003 | 8.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.954 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.889 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 107, 2B 98, 3B 91, K 95, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .380 → .320; ISO .070 → .059; BABIP .516 → .460. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AABowie Baysox · 375 PAwOBA .335 → .275 (−60)K% 17.3% → 22.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.33% | ÷0.960 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.00% | ÷0.978 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.38% | ÷0.996 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×0.988 | 17.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.09% | ÷0.971 | ×0.860 | ×0.975 | ×0.988 | 6.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.975 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.51% | ÷1.060 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 4.01% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 99, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 92, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .335 → .275; ISO .199 → .151; BABIP .274 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Lynchburg Hillcats · 449 PAwOBA .331 → .267 (−64)K% 22.9% → 31.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.94% | ÷1.048 | ×1.420 | — | — | 31.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.69% | ÷1.008 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.978 | 5.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.22% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.978 | 0.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.25% | ÷0.978 | ×0.940 | ×1.003 | ×0.978 | 23.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.08% | ÷1.084 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×0.978 | 6.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.070 | ×0.800 | ×1.003 | ×0.978 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.69% | ÷0.902 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.978 | 2.63% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 96, 2B 117, 3B 114, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .331 → .267; ISO .140 → .113; BABIP .349 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ALake County Captains · 368 PAwOBA .305 → .243 (−62)K% 21.2% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.20% | ÷1.033 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.42% | ÷0.986 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 5.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷1.001 | ×0.920 | ×1.002 | ×0.980 | 23.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.53% | ÷0.973 | ×0.830 | ×1.002 | ×0.980 | 4.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷0.981 | ×0.910 | ×1.002 | ×0.980 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.98% | ÷1.274 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 1.22% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 96, K 107, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .305 → .243; ISO .100 → .071; BABIP .324 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ALake County Captains · 193 PAwOBA .213 → .179 (−34)K% 20.2% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.21% | ÷1.014 | ×1.360 | — | — | 27.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.22% | ÷0.995 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 4.27% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.04% | ÷1.007 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×0.990 | 15.47% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.93% | ÷0.902 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×0.990 | 5.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.103 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.74% | ÷1.169 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.50% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 134, 1B 101, 2B 80, 3B 121, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .213 → .179; ISO .063 → .053; BABIP .226 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 ALake County Captains · 58 PAwOBA .220 → .170 (−50)K% 29.3% → 39.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.31% | ÷1.001 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.07% | ÷0.936 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 9.03% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.47% | ÷1.033 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.015 | 23.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.963 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.925 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.956 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 107, 2B 93, 3B 85, K 100, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .220 → .170; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .265 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .