Michael Kelly

P Las Vegas Aviators

Age 34 RHP 6'4" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	31	MLBOakland Athle…	28	0	31	2.59	3.39	17.2%	7.0%	0.4
2025	32	MLBOAK	42	0	40	3.18	4.49	17.5%	9.6%	0.0
2026	33	MIX2 levels	27	0	30	5.34	3.17	25.4%	11.3%	0.5	K 23.5% · BB 8.2% · FIP 2.70
2027PROJ	34	MLBOAK	50	0	53	4.31	4.51	20.2%	10.0%	0.0
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBOAK	3	0	3	4.61	4.82	19.6%	10.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ0% MLB	36	MLBOAK	—	—	0	4.92	5.15	18.9%	11.0%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo68

Whiff%28

xwOBA vs28

K%18

CompsDiego Moreno (age 34) · Rudy Gonzalez (age 34) · Keiichi Yabu (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.31

FIP4.51

K%20.2%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p2822.2%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p280.338

SI (9%)

FB-0.8 (31%)

SL-1.5 (68%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	97	423	57	31	10	95%	5.1	10.1%	8.6%	1.5%	3.4%	5.68	5.19	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	97	423	57	31	10	95%	5.1	13.5%	7.3%	6.1%	2.4%	5.68	4.23	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	25	129	544	115	51	9	100%	5.1	17.5%	10.2%	7.3%	1.9%	4.34	3.96	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	25	129	544	115	51	9	100%	5.1	21.1%	9.4%	11.8%	1.7%	4.34	3.41	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	22	127	542	128	55	12	79%	4.5	19.6%	10.9%	8.7%	2.5%	4.19	4.22	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	22	127	542	128	55	12	79%	4.5	23.6%	10.1%	13.5%	2.2%	4.19	3.61	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	8	67	348	62	77	8	26%	2.2	14.6%	24.2%	-9.6%	2.6%	8.42	6.36	—
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	8	67	348	62	77	8	26%	2.2	17.8%	22.1%	-4.3%	2.3%	8.42	6.23	—
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	50	210	62	17	5	0%	1.2	24.8%	8.9%	15.9%	2.5%	2.70	3.51	—
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	50	210	62	17	5	0%	1.2	29.5%	8.1%	21.4%	2.4%	2.70	2.94	—
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	55	243	70	25	9	2%	1.1	25.6%	11.1%	14.5%	3.7%	5.07	4.39	+0.1
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	1	55	243	70	25	9	2%	1.1	28.8%	10.3%	18.5%	3.7%	5.07	4.05	+0.3
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	56	250	77	30	3	0%	1.2	27.1%	11.5%	15.6%	1.3%	3.51	2.98	+1.1
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	56	250	77	30	3	0%	1.2	30.8%	12.0%	18.8%	1.2%	3.51	2.66	+1.3
2024	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	28	0	31	128	22	9	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.0%	10.2%	1.7%	2.59	3.48	+0.4
2024	31	MLB MLE	Oakland Athletics	28	0	31	128	22	9	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.0%	10.2%	1.7%	2.59	3.48	+0.4
2024	31	MLB RAW	Oakland Athletics	28	0	31	128	22	9	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	7.0%	10.2%	1.6%	2.59	3.39	+0.4
2025	32	MLB MLE	Athletics	42	0	40	166	29	16	5	0%	0.9	17.5%	9.6%	7.8%	3.1%	3.18	4.54	+0.0
2025	32	MLB MLE	Athletics	42	0	40	166	29	16	5	0%	0.9	17.5%	9.6%	7.8%	3.1%	3.18	4.54	+0.0
2025	32	MLB RAW	Athletics	42	0	40	166	29	16	5	0%	0.9	17.5%	9.6%	7.8%	3.0%	3.18	4.49	+0.0
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	30	142	36	16	2	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.2%	15.3%	1.0%	5.34	2.70	+0.7
2026	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	30	142	36	16	2	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.2%	15.3%	1.0%	5.34	2.70	+0.7
2026	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	30	142	36	16	2	0%	1.1	25.4%	11.3%	14.1%	1.4%	5.34	3.17	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			93	0	97	413	77	41	9	0%	1.0	18.6%	9.9%	8.7%	2.2%	3.72	3.99	+0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	OAK	50	0	53	224	45	22	6	0%	1.1	20.2%	10.0%	10.2%	2.7%	4.31	4.51	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	OAK	45	0	47	199	39	21	6	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.5%	9.1%	3.0%	4.61	4.82	-0.1
2029	36	MLB MLE	OAK	40	0	42	176	33	19	6	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.0%	7.8%	3.4%	4.92	5.15	-0.3
2028	35	MLB CTX	OAK	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.5%	9.1%	3.0%	4.61	4.82	-0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	OAK	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.9%	11.0%	7.8%	3.4%	4.92	5.15	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		95	0	99	424	79	42	9	0%	1.0	18.7%	9.9%	8.7%	2.2%	3.75	3.99	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	0	200	854	159	85	18	0%	1.0	18.7%	9.9%	8.7%	2.2%	3.75	3.99	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		340	74	682	2996	561	346	74	22%	2.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.2%	2.5%	4.67	4.33	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	22	200	879	165	102	22	22%	2.0	18.7%	11.6%	7.2%	2.5%	4.67	4.33	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Kelly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	20.2%	10.0%	2.7%	—	4.97	19.2%	8.5%	89	+0.46	—	—	—
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	75
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	73
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	72
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	71
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	70
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	68
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	68
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	68
Dustin Molleken R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	32	SU	3.38	24.3%	12.4%	1.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	129	68
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	68
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	68
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	67
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	67
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	66
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	66
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	66
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	66
Willie Eyre R 2011 · 4.18 FIP	33	SU	4.18	13.9%	6.9%	2.5%	.182	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	164	66
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	65
Carlos Fisher R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	34	SU	3.91	18.1%	12.9%	1.3%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	48	19.2%	10.6%	1.03	4.24
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Brad Clontz ('00)	1.4	56	17.4%	9.9%	0.97	4.34
Gary Wayne ('89-'94, 2 WAR*)	1.2	62	19.9%*	9.4%*	1.05*	3.88*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*