Matt Lipka

PosCF

B/TR/R

Born1992-04-15

Age (2027)35

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2022

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2019	27	AAA/AA2 orgs	327	.262/.318/.388	4	19	56	—	.226/.267/.335
2021	29	AAA/AA2 orgs	400	.291/.354/.449	11	31	82	—	.249/.301/.363
2022	30	AAAMIL	226	.228/.321/.330	2	26	45	—	.185/.254/.254

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2010	18	ROK	Danville Braves	—	228	208	60	8	4	1	15	24	3	21	3	288	345	380	725	91	321	11	7	325	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A	Rome Braves	—	585	530	131	21	3	1	42	83	4	28	14	247	307	304	611	57	288	14	7	277	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	229	199	54	5	1	2	20	32	1	12	6	271	341	337	678	65	308	14	9	299	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A+	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	571	525	132	29	7	5	29	107	12	37	14	251	306	362	668	110	307	19	5	298	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	116	106	20	6	0	0	9	15	1	10	2	189	259	245	504	57	220	13	8	236	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	ROK	GCL Braves	—	16	15	4	2	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	267	312	400	713	133	444	38	6	317	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	432	402	99	14	3	2	16	64	4	16	5	246	282	311	593	65	285	15	4	263	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	—	179	164	39	7	4	2	10	36	3	3	0	238	294	366	660	128	289	20	6	292	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	244	214	53	10	4	1	20	60	5	13	6	248	326	346	672	98	338	25	8	301	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA	Frisco RoughRiders	—	102	94	15	4	1	0	3	32	4	5	1	160	218	223	441	64	238	31	3	204	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	A+	Down East Wood Ducks	—	370	325	86	16	4	9	28	68	7	20	5	265	336	422	758	157	306	18	8	330	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	357	304	73	12	5	4	40	57	3	21	8	240	334	352	686	112	277	16	11	305	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	72	64	18	5	0	2	8	16	0	4	1	281	361	453	814	172	348	22	11	363	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AA	Trenton Thunder	—	255	230	59	12	4	2	12	59	4	15	6	257	305	370	674	113	333	23	5	292	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	385	347	104	18	3	11	28	97	6	30	7	300	362	464	826	164	386	25	7	364	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AA	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	15	14	1	0	0	0	1	6	0	1	0	71	133	71	205		125	40	7	107	-64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	226	197	45	6	4	2	25	62	2	26	1	228	321	330	651	102	323	27	11	297	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2010	18	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	228	213	50	6	3	1	10	34	3	21	3	235	279	305	584	70	267	15	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A MLE	Rome Braves	—	585	544	123	18	3	1	28	113	4	28	14	226	269	276	545	50	274	19	5	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	229	206	52	4	1	2	13	48	1	12	6	252	300	311	611	58	294	21	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	571	534	113	22	6	5	20	156	12	37	14	212	256	303	560	92	284	27	4	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	116	109	18	5	0	0	6	19	1	10	2	165	216	211	427	46	198	16	5	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	—	16	15	2	1	0	0	1	9	0	0	0	133	188	200	388	67	334	56	6	174	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	432	406	92	14	3	2	12	76	4	16	5	227	256	291	547	64	261	18	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	179	167	35	6	3	2	7	41	3	3	0	210	254	317	572	108	256	23	4	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	244	220	46	8	3	1	14	70	5	13	6	209	272	286	558	77	287	29	6	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	AA MLE	Frisco RoughRiders	—	102	95	12	3	1	0	2	41	4	5	1	126	178	179	357	53	212	40	2	159	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	A+ MLE	Down East Wood Ducks	—	370	336	73	14	3	8	17	92	7	20	5	217	269	348	618	131	257	25	5	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	357	317	69	11	4	4	27	71	3	21	8	218	285	315	601	98	251	20	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	72	67	16	4	0	2	5	19	0	4	1	239	292	388	680	149	305	26	7	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AA MLE	Trenton Thunder	—	255	234	52	9	4	2	8	75	4	15	6	222	260	321	581	98	295	29	3	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	385	355	91	14	2	8	20	114	6	30	7	256	307	375	682	118	350	30	5	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	—	15	14	1	0	0	0	1	8	0	1	0	71	133	71	205		110	53	7	73	-64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	226	205	38	5	3	1	17	77	2	26	1	185	254	254	508	68	291	34	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	228	213	50	6	3	1	10	34	3	21	3	235	279	305	584	70	274	15	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK RAW	Danville Braves	—	228	208	60	8	4	1	15	24	3	21	3	288	345	380	725	91	321	11	7	325	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A MLE	Rome Braves	—	585	544	123	18	3	1	28	113	4	28	14	226	269	276	545	50	280	19	5	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A RAW	Rome Braves	—	585	530	131	21	3	1	42	83	4	28	14	247	307	304	611	57	288	14	7	277	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	229	206	52	4	1	2	13	48	1	12	6	252	300	311	611	58	312	21	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	229	199	54	5	1	2	20	32	1	12	6	271	341	337	678	65	308	14	9	299	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	571	534	113	22	6	5	20	156	12	37	14	212	256	303	560	92	289	27	4	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A+ RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	571	525	132	29	7	5	29	107	12	37	14	251	306	362	668	110	307	19	5	298	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	132	124	20	6	0	0	7	27	1	10	2	161	212	210	422	48	206	20	5	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	132	121	24	8	0	0	10	21	1	10	2	198	265	264	530	66	240	16	8	246	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	432	406	92	14	3	2	12	76	4	16	5	227	256	291	547	64	271	18	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA RAW	Mississippi Braves	—	432	402	99	14	3	2	16	64	4	16	5	246	282	311	593	65	285	15	4	263	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	423	387	79	14	6	2	21	112	8	16	6	204	260	287	546	83	279	26	5	243	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	423	378	92	17	8	3	30	96	8	16	6	243	312	354	667	111	316	23	7	297	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	472	431	84	16	4	8	19	133	11	25	6	195	247	306	554	111	258	28	4	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	472	419	101	20	5	9	31	100	11	25	6	241	310	377	687	136	292	21	7	303	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	357	317	69	11	4	4	27	71	3	21	8	218	285	315	601	98	262	20	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	357	304	73	12	5	4	40	57	3	21	8	240	334	352	686	112	277	16	11	305	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	327	301	67	13	4	3	13	94	4	19	7	223	264	322	586	100	311	29	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AA RAW	2 teams	—	327	294	77	17	4	4	20	75	4	19	7	262	318	388	705	126	336	23	6	308	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	400	369	92	14	2	8	21	121	6	31	7	249	301	363	664	114	347	30	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	400	361	105	18	3	11	29	103	6	31	7	291	354	449	802	158	378	26	7	354	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	226	205	38	5	3	1	17	77	2	26	1	185	254	254	508	68	291	34	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	—	226	197	45	6	4	2	25	62	2	26	1	228	321	330	651	102	323	27	11	297	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	18	ROK MLE	Danville Braves	—	228	213	50	6	3	1	10	34	3	21	3	235	279	305	584	70	267	15	4	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	19	A MLE	Rome Braves	—	585	548	123	18	3	1	28	113	4	28	14	224	269	274	543	49	274	19	5	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	20	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	229	213	52	4	1	2	13	48	1	12	6	244	300	300	600	56	294	21	6	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	21	A+ MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	571	534	113	22	6	5	20	156	12	37	14	212	256	303	560	92	284	27	4	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	132	123	20	6	0	0	7	27	1	10	2	163	212	211	424	49	214	20	5	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	23	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	432	413	92	14	3	2	12	76	4	16	5	223	256	286	542	63	261	18	3	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	423	391	79	14	6	2	21	112	8	16	6	202	260	284	544	82	274	26	5	243	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	25	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	472	439	84	16	4	8	19	133	11	25	6	191	247	301	548	109	247	28	4	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	26	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	—	357	324	69	11	4	4	27	71	3	21	8	213	285	309	594	96	251	20	8	262	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	327	307	67	13	4	3	13	94	4	19	7	218	264	316	580	98	297	29	4	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	400	370	92	14	2	8	21	121	6	31	7	249	301	362	663	114	341	30	5	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	30	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	226	205	38	5	3	1	17	77	2	26	1	185	254	254	508	68	291	34	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
Career	—	MLE		—	4382	4037	879	143	39	37	208	1062	59	262	79	218	266	300	566	82	283	24	5	247	54	-242	+21	+0	+16	+95	-11.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	599	130	21	6	5	31	158	9	39	12	217	266	297	564	80	283	24	5	247	54	-36	+3	+0	+2	+14	-1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAANashville Sounds · 226 PAwOBA .290 → .234 (−56)K% 27.4% → 33.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.43%	÷0.971	×1.200	—	—	33.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.06%	÷0.994	×0.690	—	×0.972	7.46%
HBP% /PA	0.88%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.81%
Singles /BIP	24.44%	÷0.996	×0.930	×1.013	×0.972	22.49%
Doubles /BIP	4.44%	÷0.952	×0.830	×1.013	×0.972	3.82%
Triples /BIP	2.96%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.013	×0.972	2.46%
Home runs /BIP	1.48%	÷0.946	×0.700	—	×0.972	1.07%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 94, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .290 → .234; ISO .102 → .079; BABIP .323 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAANashville Sounds · 385 PAwOBA .356 → .299 (−56)K% 25.2% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.19%	÷1.024	×1.200	—	—	29.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.27%	÷0.946	×0.690	—	×0.982	5.21%
HBP% /PA	1.56%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	1.44%
Singles /BIP	28.80%	÷0.966	×0.930	×1.008	×0.982	27.43%
Doubles /BIP	7.20%	÷1.030	×0.830	×1.008	×0.982	5.74%
Triples /BIP	1.20%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.008	×0.982	0.95%
Home runs /BIP	4.40%	÷0.915	×0.700	—	×0.982	3.31%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 93, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 105, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .356 → .299; ISO .164 → .124; BABIP .386 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAmarillo Sod Poodles · 15 PAwOBA .105 → .073 (−32)K% 40.0% → 51.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	40.00%	÷0.946	×1.220	—	—	51.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷0.992	×0.690	—	×0.958	4.44%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×0.958	0.00%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.025	×0.940	—	×0.958	10.98%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.034	×0.870	—	×0.958	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.945	×0.920	—	×0.958	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.271	×0.780	—	×0.958	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 154, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 89, K 89, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .105 → .073; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .125 → .110. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AATrenton Thunder · 255 PAwOBA .286 → .240 (−46)K% 23.1% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.14%	÷0.956	×1.220	—	—	29.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.71%	÷0.999	×0.700	—	×0.978	3.23%
HBP% /PA	1.57%	—	×0.850	—	×0.978	1.30%
Singles /BIP	23.98%	÷0.984	×0.970	×0.950	×0.978	21.97%
Doubles /BIP	7.02%	÷1.040	×0.860	×0.950	×0.978	5.39%
Triples /BIP	2.34%	÷0.937	×0.950	×0.950	×0.978	2.20%
Home runs /BIP	1.17%	÷0.960	×0.780	—	×0.978	0.93%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 97, 2B 108, 3B 87, K 91, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .286 → .240; ISO .113 → .092; BABIP .333 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 72 PAwOBA .353 → .286 (−67)K% 22.2% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.007	×1.200	—	—	26.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷1.066	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.22%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.92%	÷1.019	×0.930	—	×1.003	20.97%
Doubles /BIP	10.42%	÷1.009	×0.830	—	×1.003	8.59%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.938	×0.970	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.17%	÷1.087	×0.840	—	×1.003	3.23%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 104, 2B 102, 3B 88, K 101, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .353 → .286; ISO .172 → .136; BABIP .348 → .305. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 357 PAwOBA .301 → .262 (−38)K% 16.0% → 20.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.97%	÷0.975	×1.220	—	—	19.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.64%	÷0.983	×0.700	—	×0.988	7.49%
HBP% /PA	0.84%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	0.71%
Singles /BIP	21.05%	÷0.995	×0.970	×0.963	×0.988	19.54%
Doubles /BIP	4.86%	÷0.949	×0.860	×0.963	×0.988	4.19%
Triples /BIP	2.02%	÷1.150	×0.950	×0.963	×0.988	1.59%
Home runs /BIP	1.62%	÷0.869	×0.780	—	×0.988	1.44%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .301 → .262; ISO .112 → .099; BABIP .277 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 A+Down East Wood Ducks · 370 PAwOBA .323 → .262 (−61)K% 18.4% → 25.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.38%	÷1.045	×1.420	—	—	24.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.30%	÷0.989	×0.630	—	×0.978	4.55%
HBP% /PA	1.89%	—	×0.860	—	×0.978	1.59%
Singles /BIP	22.18%	÷1.034	×0.940	×0.950	×0.978	18.73%
Doubles /BIP	6.23%	÷0.905	×0.830	×0.950	×0.978	5.30%
Triples /BIP	1.56%	÷0.900	×0.800	×0.950	×0.978	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	3.50%	÷0.995	×0.900	—	×0.978	3.10%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 109, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .323 → .262; ISO .157 → .135; BABIP .306 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 102 PAwOBA .201 → .159 (−42)K% 31.4% → 39.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.37%	÷0.959	×1.220	—	—	39.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	2.94%	÷1.095	×0.700	—	×0.998	1.88%
HBP% /PA	3.92%	—	×0.870	—	×0.998	3.40%
Singles /BIP	16.13%	÷1.022	×0.920	×1.020	×0.998	14.79%
Doubles /BIP	6.45%	÷1.051	×0.840	×1.020	×0.998	5.25%
Triples /BIP	1.61%	÷1.017	×0.940	×1.020	×0.998	1.52%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.089	×0.800	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 104, 2B 110, 3B 103, K 92, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .201 → .159; ISO .064 → .049; BABIP .238 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).