Christian Lopes
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 529 | .265/.369/.422 | 13 | 14 | 72 | — | .214/.294/.328 |
| 2021 | 28 | AAAARI | 219 | .271/.389/.497 | 9 | 4 | 81 | — | .195/.292/.342 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAAOAK | 216 | .257/.350/.374 | 2 | 4 | 54 | — | .201/.276/.278 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 19 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 205 | 186 | 52 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 280 | 343 | 484 | 827 | 204 | 324 | 17 | 7 | 361 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 552 | 497 | 122 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 78 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 245 | 312 | 336 | 648 | 91 | 278 | 14 | 7 | 292 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 395 | 346 | 84 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 42 | 67 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 243 | 329 | 350 | 679 | 107 | 292 | 17 | 11 | 308 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | INTL | Canberra Cavalry | — | 140 | 124 | 46 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 371 | 431 | 581 | 1.011 | 210 | 360 | 7 | 9 | 434 | 180 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 108 | 92 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 174 | 269 | 174 | 443 | 198 | 13 | 10 | 212 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 278 | 246 | 72 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 43 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 293 | 368 | 382 | 750 | 89 | 347 | 15 | 10 | 340 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 450 | 404 | 119 | 30 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 71 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 295 | 360 | 401 | 761 | 106 | 348 | 16 | 7 | 340 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 68 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 328 | 411 | 739 | 214 | 190 | 18 | 16 | 327 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 384 | 333 | 87 | 25 | 2 | 6 | 43 | 52 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 261 | 353 | 402 | 755 | 141 | 290 | 14 | 11 | 338 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Round Rock Express | — | 508 | 429 | 112 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 68 | 74 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 261 | 369 | 408 | 776 | 147 | 287 | 15 | 13 | 348 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Nashville Sounds | — | 228 | 195 | 53 | 15 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 45 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 272 | 366 | 426 | 792 | 154 | 329 | 20 | 11 | 351 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 301 | 251 | 65 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 39 | 59 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 259 | 372 | 418 | 790 | 159 | 303 | 20 | 13 | 352 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 219 | 181 | 49 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 61 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 271 | 389 | 497 | 886 | 227 | 351 | 28 | 13 | 387 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 216 | 187 | 48 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 56 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 257 | 350 | 374 | 725 | 118 | 351 | 26 | 11 | 328 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 205 | 191 | 37 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 48 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 194 | 245 | 330 | 575 | 136 | 243 | 23 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 552 | 511 | 104 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 106 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 253 | 272 | 525 | 68 | 242 | 19 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 395 | 357 | 77 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 94 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 216 | 286 | 303 | 588 | 87 | 281 | 24 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 108 | 95 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 179 | 250 | 179 | 429 | 196 | 17 | 7 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 278 | 254 | 59 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 64 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 232 | 296 | 307 | 603 | 75 | 297 | 23 | 8 | 266 | 66 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | — | 450 | 415 | 110 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 90 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 265 | 315 | 349 | 664 | 84 | 323 | 20 | 5 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dunedin Blue Jays | — | 68 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 169 | 269 | 373 | 642 | 203 | 154 | 26 | 12 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 384 | 346 | 79 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 66 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 228 | 297 | 355 | 653 | 127 | 260 | 17 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 508 | 447 | 102 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 50 | 90 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 228 | 313 | 347 | 660 | 119 | 257 | 18 | 10 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA MLE | Nashville Sounds | — | 228 | 202 | 44 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 57 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 218 | 295 | 337 | 631 | 119 | 272 | 25 | 7 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 301 | 265 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 73 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 211 | 294 | 321 | 615 | 109 | 256 | 24 | 8 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 219 | 190 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 74 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 195 | 292 | 342 | 634 | 147 | 271 | 34 | 9 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 216 | 194 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 67 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 201 | 276 | 278 | 554 | 77 | 285 | 31 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 205 | 191 | 37 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 48 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 194 | 245 | 330 | 575 | 136 | 243 | 23 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK RAW | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 205 | 186 | 52 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 34 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 280 | 343 | 484 | 827 | 204 | 324 | 17 | 7 | 361 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 552 | 511 | 104 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 106 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 204 | 253 | 272 | 525 | 68 | 245 | 19 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A RAW | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 552 | 497 | 122 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 78 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 245 | 312 | 336 | 648 | 91 | 278 | 14 | 7 | 292 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 482 | 104 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 44 | 127 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 216 | 285 | 303 | 588 | 87 | 284 | 24 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 535 | 470 | 130 | 34 | 1 | 9 | 55 | 77 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 277 | 355 | 411 | 766 | 134 | 312 | 14 | 10 | 341 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 386 | 349 | 75 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 82 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 215 | 281 | 269 | 550 | 54 | 271 | 21 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 386 | 338 | 88 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 39 | 57 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 260 | 341 | 325 | 667 | 65 | 304 | 15 | 10 | 304 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 518 | 475 | 118 | 26 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 107 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 248 | 303 | 343 | 646 | 95 | 308 | 21 | 6 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 518 | 460 | 130 | 31 | 3 | 6 | 44 | 83 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 283 | 355 | 402 | 758 | 120 | 331 | 16 | 8 | 338 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 384 | 346 | 79 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 66 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 228 | 297 | 355 | 653 | 127 | 263 | 17 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA RAW | Buffalo Bisons | — | 384 | 333 | 87 | 25 | 2 | 6 | 43 | 52 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 261 | 353 | 402 | 755 | 141 | 290 | 14 | 11 | 338 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 508 | 447 | 102 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 50 | 90 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 228 | 313 | 347 | 660 | 119 | 261 | 18 | 10 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA RAW | Round Rock Express | — | 508 | 429 | 112 | 21 | 3 | 12 | 68 | 74 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 261 | 369 | 408 | 776 | 147 | 287 | 15 | 13 | 348 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 529 | 467 | 100 | 24 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 130 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 214 | 294 | 328 | 622 | 113 | 273 | 25 | 8 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 529 | 446 | 118 | 29 | 1 | 13 | 63 | 104 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 265 | 369 | 422 | 791 | 157 | 314 | 20 | 12 | 351 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 219 | 190 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 74 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 195 | 292 | 342 | 634 | 147 | 274 | 34 | 9 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA RAW | Reno Aces | — | 219 | 181 | 49 | 12 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 61 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 271 | 389 | 497 | 886 | 227 | 351 | 28 | 13 | 387 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 216 | 194 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 67 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 201 | 276 | 278 | 554 | 77 | 297 | 31 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA RAW | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 216 | 187 | 48 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 56 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 257 | 350 | 374 | 725 | 118 | 351 | 26 | 11 | 328 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 19 | ROK MLE | Bluefield Blue Jays | — | 205 | 190 | 37 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 48 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 195 | 245 | 332 | 577 | 137 | 243 | 23 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 20 | A MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 552 | 513 | 104 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 106 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 253 | 271 | 524 | 68 | 242 | 19 | 5 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 483 | 104 | 31 | 1 | 3 | 44 | 127 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 215 | 285 | 302 | 588 | 87 | 281 | 24 | 8 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 386 | 351 | 75 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 82 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 214 | 281 | 268 | 549 | 54 | 269 | 21 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 518 | 476 | 118 | 26 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 107 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 248 | 303 | 342 | 645 | 95 | 301 | 21 | 6 | 284 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 384 | 347 | 79 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 66 | 4 | 18 | 4 | 228 | 297 | 354 | 652 | 127 | 260 | 17 | 8 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA MLE | Round Rock Express | — | 508 | 448 | 102 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 50 | 90 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 228 | 313 | 346 | 659 | 118 | 257 | 18 | 10 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 529 | 471 | 100 | 24 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 130 | 11 | 14 | 6 | 212 | 294 | 325 | 619 | 113 | 263 | 25 | 8 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 219 | 191 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 74 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 194 | 292 | 340 | 632 | 147 | 271 | 34 | 9 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA MLE | Las Vegas Aviators | — | 216 | 194 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 67 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 201 | 276 | 278 | 554 | 77 | 285 | 31 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4052 | 3652 | 795 | 181 | 16 | 49 | 296 | 897 | 55 | 83 | 32 | 218 | 286 | 316 | 603 | 99 | 272 | 22 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -159 | +4 | -1 | +14 | +88 | -5.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 128 | 29 | 3 | 8 | 47 | 144 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 218 | 287 | 319 | 606 | 101 | 273 | 22 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -26 | +1 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2022 AAALas Vegas Aviators · 216 PAwOBA .323 → .248 (−75)K% 25.9% → 30.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.93% | ÷1.009 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.65% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.972 | 7.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.85% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.972 | 1.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.66% | ÷0.995 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 20.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.69% | ÷1.088 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 7.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.972 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.53% | ÷1.075 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.972 | 0.97% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 99, 2B 118, 3B 80, K 102, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .323 → .248; ISO .118 → .083; BABIP .351 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AAAReno Aces · 219 PAwOBA .383 → .288 (−95)K% 27.9% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.85% | ÷0.991 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.24% | ÷0.963 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.982 | 9.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.74% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.982 | 2.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.50% | ÷1.047 | ×0.930 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 18.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.096 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 7.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.83% | ÷1.113 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.982 | 0.64% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.50% | ÷0.958 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.982 | 5.38% |
Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 109, 2B 119, 3B 123, K 98, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .383 → .288; ISO .227 → .161; BABIP .351 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 301 PAwOBA .345 → .274 (−72)K% 19.6% → 24.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.60% | ÷0.986 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.29% | ÷1.032 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 8.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.99% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 1.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.88% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 19.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.29% | ÷0.960 | ×0.840 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 5.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.978 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.208 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 2.70% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 142, 1B 97, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 97, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .345 → .274; ISO .159 → .119; BABIP .303 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAANashville Sounds · 228 PAwOBA .343 → .275 (−68)K% 19.7% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.74% | ÷1.015 | ×1.290 | — | — | 25.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷0.988 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 7.58% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.19% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 2.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.00% | ÷1.007 | ×0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 18.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷0.967 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 7.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.069 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.998 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 2.61% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 101, 2B 93, 3B 114, K 103, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .343 → .275; ISO .154 → .121; BABIP .329 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAARound Rock Express · 508 PAwOBA .343 → .292 (−50)K% 14.6% → 17.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.57% | ÷1.055 | ×1.290 | — | — | 17.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.39% | ÷0.978 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 9.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.98% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.98% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.41% | ÷0.962 | ×0.900 | ×0.975 | ×1.018 | 19.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.92% | ÷1.019 | ×0.810 | ×0.975 | ×1.018 | 4.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.85% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×0.975 | ×1.018 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.38% | ÷0.978 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 2.74% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 92, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 111, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .343 → .292; ISO .147 → .122; BABIP .287 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAABuffalo Bisons · 384 PAwOBA .333 → .288 (−45)K% 13.5% → 17.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.54% | ÷0.950 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.20% | ÷1.027 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.01% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.22% | ÷1.021 | ×0.930 | ×0.959 | ×1.033 | 17.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.90% | ÷0.940 | ×0.830 | ×0.959 | ×1.033 | 7.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.71% | ÷0.961 | ×0.970 | ×0.959 | ×1.033 | 0.71% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.14% | ÷0.903 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.033 | 2.05% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 104, 2B 88, 3B 92, K 90, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .333 → .288; ISO .141 → .131; BABIP .290 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 450 PAwOBA .333 → .288 (−45)K% 15.8% → 19.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.78% | ÷0.969 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.33% | ÷1.079 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.78% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.23% | ÷0.995 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 24.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 7.64% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.60% | ÷1.031 | ×0.950 | ×0.975 | ×1.012 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.90% | ÷1.292 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.55% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 158, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 106, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .333 → .288; ISO .106 → .085; BABIP .348 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Dunedin Blue Jays · 68 PAwOBA .324 → .256 (−68)K% 17.6% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.65% | ÷0.955 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.18% | ÷1.038 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.988 | 11.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.64% | ÷1.042 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 11.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.064 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 1.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 1.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.82% | ÷0.912 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 6.50% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 108, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 91, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .324 → .256; ISO .214 → .184; BABIP .190 → .154. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).