Donald Lutz

PosLF

B/TL/R

Born1989-02-06

Age (2027)38

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

INTLLAST SEASON 2024

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2020	31	INTLBrisbane Band…	91	.300/.385/.538	5	1	160	—
2022	33	INTLBrisbane Band…	119	.206/.286/.439	8	4	103	—
2024	35	INTLBrisbane Band…	41	.194/.275/.278	0	0	55	—

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2008	19	ROK	GCL Reds	—	120	108	27	9	0	1	9	21	2	4	1	250	319	361	680	111	299	18	8	306	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	20	ROK	GCL Reds	—	65	59	10	1	2	1	5	14	1	2	1	169	246	305	551	136	205	22	8	250	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	233	203	58	10	4	7	21	45	4	6	2	286	364	478	842	192	327	19	9	365	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	INTL	Canberra Cavalry	—	110	100	26	5	3	5	7	21	1	4	1	260	315	520	835	260	280	19	6	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A	Dayton Dragons	—	506	465	140	23	3	20	34	125	7	5	4	301	358	492	850	191	375	25	7	375	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	165	149	36	5	1	5	13	32	3	1	3	242	315	389	704	148	277	19	8	317	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+	Bakersfield Blaze	—	277	253	67	18	3	17	19	71	4	7	2	265	326	561	887	296	301	26	7	382	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	ROK	AZL Reds	—	17	14	9	2	2	0	3	4	0	0	0	643	706	1.071	1.777	429	900	24	18	730	214	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	45	43	17	3	1	1	1	7	1	2	0	395	422	581	1.004	186	457	16	2	441	185	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	59	58	14	1	0	1	1	14	0	2	0	241	254	310	565	69	302	24	2	253	55	-3	+0	-0	-5	+1	-0.7
2013	24	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	255	229	56	12	4	7	19	56	6	4	1	245	319	424	742	179	293	22	7	329	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	131	118	32	5	1	4	11	38	2	1	2	271	344	432	776	161	368	29	8	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	54	51	9	4	0	0	3	19	0	0	0	176	222	255	477	78	281	35	6	218	25	-5	+0	-0	-11	+1	-1.5
2014	25	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	218	195	46	9	2	6	17	68	4	4	0	236	310	395	705	159	325	31	8	313	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	97	89	32	7	2	6	7	17	1	1	0	360	412	685	1.098	326	394	18	7	471	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	234	207	58	16	3	6	23	47	4	2	3	280	363	473	837	193	338	20	10	371	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	48	42	8	3	0	0	5	10	1	0	0	190	292	262	554	71	250	21	10	263	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	INTL	Brisbane Bandits	—	115	103	28	11	0	5	11	21	1	2	0	272	348	524	872	252	299	18	10	381	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA	Louisville Bats	—	70	65	11	0	0	1	4	27	1	0	0	169	229	215	444	46	270	39	6	209	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	161	146	31	5	1	1	9	53	2	1	0	212	268	281	548	68	316	33	6	246	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	INTL	Brisbane Bandits	—	74	65	21	4	1	4	9	13	0	0	0	323	405	600	1.005	277	354	18	12	435	181	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	AAA	Bravos de Leon	—	45	38	11	1	0	0	5	13	1	2	1	289	386	316	702	26	423	29	11	323	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	INTL	Brisbane Bandits	—	142	121	34	5	1	16	19	42	2	1	1	281	387	736	1.123	455	286	30	13	471	205	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	INTL	Brisbane Bandits	—	154	129	24	4	0	4	23	42	1	1	0	186	314	310	624	124	238	27	15	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	INTL	Brisbane Bandits	—	99	88	16	3	0	4	9	36	0	0	0	182	258	352	610	170	245	36	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	31	INTL	Brisbane Bandits	—	91	80	24	4	0	5	11	22	0	1	1	300	385	537	922	237	358	24	12	404	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	33	INTL	Brisbane Bandits	—	119	107	22	1	0	8	10	30	2	4	0	206	286	439	725	234	203	25	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	35	INTL	Brisbane Bandits	—	41	36	7	1	1	0	3	10	1	0	0	194	275	278	553	83	259	24	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	113	109	23	5	0	1	4	33	0	2	0	211	239	284	523	73	293	29	4	236	46	-7	+0	-0	-16	+2	-2.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2008	19	ROK MLE	GCL Reds	—	120	111	21	6	0	1	6	30	2	4	1	189	244	270	514	81	246	25	5	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	20	ROK MLE	GCL Reds	—	65	61	8	1	1	1	3	20	1	2	1	131	185	230	414	98	167	31	5	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	233	212	44	7	3	5	12	65	4	6	2	208	263	340	603	132	253	28	5	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	506	478	112	17	2	12	21	171	7	5	4	234	277	354	630	119	340	34	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	165	153	33	5	1	3	9	38	3	1	3	216	273	320	593	105	262	23	5	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ MLE	Bakersfield Blaze	—	277	262	55	15	2	12	10	95	4	7	2	210	250	420	670	210	275	34	4	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	ROK MLE	AZL Reds	—	17	15	6	1	1	0	2	6	0	0	0	400	471	600	1.071	200	674	35	12	484	214	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	59	58	14	1	0	1	1	14	0	2	0	241	254	310	565	69	302	24	2	249	55	-3	+0	-0	-5	+1	-0.7
2013	24	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	255	237	50	11	3	5	11	65	6	4	1	211	264	346	610	135	267	25	4	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	54	52	9	4	0	0	2	19	0	0	0	173	204	250	454	77	281	35	4	205	25	-5	+0	-0	-11	+1	-1.5
2014	25	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	218	201	37	6	2	5	11	88	4	4	0	184	241	308	549	124	286	40	5	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	97	92	29	6	2	5	4	20	1	1	0	315	351	587	937	272	357	21	4	391	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	48	44	8	3	0	0	3	12	1	0	0	182	250	250	500	68	229	25	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	—	70	66	10	0	0	1	3	33	1	0	0	152	200	197	397	45	265	47	4	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	161	149	27	4	1	1	6	62	2	1	0	181	223	242	465	60	270	39	4	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	AAA MLE	Bravos de Leon	—	45	42	10	1	0	0	1	17	1	2	1	238	273	262	535	24	376	38	2	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	19	ROK MLE	GCL Reds	—	120	111	21	6	0	1	6	30	2	4	1	189	244	270	514	81	247	25	5	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	19	ROK RAW	GCL Reds	—	120	108	27	9	0	1	9	21	2	4	1	250	319	361	680	111	299	18	8	306	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	20	ROK MLE	GCL Reds	—	65	61	8	1	1	1	3	20	1	2	1	131	185	230	414	98	175	31	5	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	20	ROK RAW	GCL Reds	—	65	59	10	1	2	1	5	14	1	2	1	169	246	305	551	136	205	22	8	250	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	343	313	64	10	4	7	18	95	5	10	3	204	259	329	588	125	263	28	5	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	343	303	84	15	7	12	28	66	5	10	3	277	348	492	840	215	312	19	8	361	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	506	478	112	17	2	12	21	171	7	5	4	234	277	354	630	119	339	34	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A RAW	Dayton Dragons	—	506	465	140	23	3	20	34	125	7	5	4	301	358	492	850	191	375	25	7	375	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	504	472	103	23	5	16	23	153	8	10	5	218	266	390	656	172	286	30	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ RAW	4 teams	—	504	459	129	28	7	23	36	114	8	10	5	281	344	523	867	242	328	23	7	378	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	445	419	92	17	5	9	17	112	8	7	3	220	264	348	612	129	278	25	4	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA RAW	3 teams	—	445	405	102	18	5	12	31	108	8	7	3	252	318	410	727	158	315	24	7	324	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	INTL MLE	4 teams	—	603	564	122	27	5	16	28	208	9	7	3	216	265	367	632	151	310	34	5	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	INTL RAW	4 teams	—	603	542	145	36	7	18	50	151	9	7	3	268	339	459	799	192	339	25	8	352	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	163	149	25	9	0	0	12	41	2	2	0	168	239	228	467	60	231	25	7	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	INTL RAW	2 teams	—	163	145	36	14	0	5	16	31	2	2	0	248	331	448	780	200	284	19	10	346	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AA MLE	3 teams	—	305	287	47	5	1	2	11	125	3	1	0	164	203	209	412	45	276	41	4	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AA RAW	3 teams	—	305	276	63	9	2	6	22	93	3	1	0	228	292	341	633	112	317	30	7	283	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	187	177	43	4	0	0	6	69	3	3	2	243	280	266	545	23	394	37	3	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	INTL RAW	2 teams	—	187	159	45	6	1	16	24	55	3	3	2	283	387	635	1.022	352	326	29	13	436	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	INTL MLE	Brisbane Bandits	—	154	129	24	4	0	4	23	42	1	1	0	186	314	310	624	124	238	27	15	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	29	INTL RAW	Brisbane Bandits	—	154	129	24	4	0	4	23	42	1	1	0	186	314	310	624	124	238	27	15	290	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	INTL MLE	Brisbane Bandits	—	99	88	16	3	0	4	9	36	0	0	0	182	258	352	610	170	245	36	9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	30	INTL RAW	Brisbane Bandits	—	99	88	16	3	0	4	9	36	0	0	0	182	258	352	610	170	245	36	9	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	31	INTL MLE	Brisbane Bandits	—	91	80	24	4	0	5	11	22	0	1	1	300	385	537	922	237	358	24	12	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	31	INTL RAW	Brisbane Bandits	—	91	80	24	4	0	5	11	22	0	1	1	300	385	537	922	237	358	24	12	404	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	33	INTL MLE	Brisbane Bandits	—	119	107	22	1	0	8	10	30	2	4	0	206	286	439	725	234	203	25	8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	33	INTL RAW	Brisbane Bandits	—	119	107	22	1	0	8	10	30	2	4	0	206	286	439	725	234	203	25	8	321	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	35	INTL MLE	Brisbane Bandits	—	41	36	7	1	1	0	3	10	1	0	0	194	275	278	553	83	259	24	7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	35	INTL RAW	Brisbane Bandits	—	41	36	7	1	1	0	3	10	1	0	0	194	275	278	553	83	259	24	7	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	19	ROK MLE	GCL Reds	—	120	111	21	6	0	1	6	30	2	4	1	189	244	270	514	81	246	25	5	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	20	ROK MLE	GCL Reds	—	65	61	8	1	1	1	3	20	1	2	1	131	185	230	414	98	167	31	5	172	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	21	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	343	317	64	10	4	7	18	95	5	10	3	202	259	325	584	123	253	28	5	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	506	473	112	17	2	12	21	171	7	5	4	237	277	357	634	121	340	34	4	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	23	A+ MLE	4 teams	—	504	468	103	23	5	16	23	153	8	10	5	220	266	393	660	173	285	30	5	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	24	AA MLE	3 teams	—	445	417	92	17	5	9	17	112	8	7	3	221	264	350	614	129	274	25	4	268	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	25	INTL MLE	4 teams	—	603	561	122	27	5	16	28	208	9	7	3	217	265	369	634	152	304	34	5	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	26	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	163	148	25	9	0	0	12	41	2	2	0	169	239	230	469	61	229	25	7	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	27	AA MLE	3 teams	—	305	288	47	5	1	2	11	125	3	1	0	163	203	208	411	45	268	41	4	188	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	28	INTL MLE	2 teams	—	187	176	43	4	0	0	6	69	3	3	2	244	280	267	547	23	376	37	3	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	113	109	23	5	0	1	4	33	0	2	0	211	239	284	523	73	293	29	4	236	38	-7	+0	-0	-16	+2	-2.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	627	133	29	0	6	23	190	0	12	0	212	240	287	527	75	295	29	4	236	38	-42	+2	-2	-89	+14	-11.9
Career	—	MLE		—	3745	3471	730	132	24	85	201	1164	52	57	23	210	264	336	600	125	288	31	5	224	38	-7	+0	-0	-16	+2	-2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	602	127	23	4	15	35	202	9	10	4	211	265	337	602	126	289	31	5	224	38	-42	+2	-2	-89	+14	-11.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2017 AAABravos de Leon · 45 PAwOBA .296 → .267 (−29)K% 28.9% → 36.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.89%	÷0.942	×1.200	—	—	36.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.44%	÷0.968	×0.690	—	×0.992	3.14%
HBP% /PA	2.22%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	2.07%
Singles /BIP	40.00%	÷1.036	×0.930	—	×0.992	35.62%
Doubles /BIP	4.00%	÷0.960	×0.830	—	×0.992	3.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.981	×0.700	—	×0.992	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 107, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 88, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .296 → .267; ISO .026 → .024; BABIP .423 → .376. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 161 PAwOBA .244 → .196 (−48)K% 32.9% → 38.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	32.92%	÷1.042	×1.220	—	—	38.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.59%	÷1.075	×0.680	—	×0.978	3.46%
HBP% /PA	1.24%	—	×0.840	—	×0.978	1.02%
Singles /BIP	25.81%	÷0.993	×0.920	×0.962	×0.978	22.49%
Doubles /BIP	5.38%	÷1.081	×0.910	×0.962	×0.978	4.26%
Triples /BIP	1.08%	÷0.981	×0.880	×0.962	×0.978	0.91%
Home runs /BIP	1.08%	÷0.924	×0.800	—	×0.978	0.91%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 96, K 108, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.

Result: wOBA .244 → .196; ISO .068 → .055; BABIP .316 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAALouisville Bats · 70 PAwOBA .204 → .170 (−34)K% 38.6% → 47.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	38.57%	÷0.984	×1.200	—	—	47.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.71%	÷0.978	×0.690	—	×1.003	4.04%
HBP% /PA	1.43%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	1.35%
Singles /BIP	26.32%	÷0.952	×0.930	—	×1.003	25.79%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.053	×0.830	—	×1.003	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.63%	÷0.882	×0.840	—	×1.003	2.51%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 90, 2B 111, 3B 130, K 97, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .204 → .170; ISO .046 → .039; BABIP .270 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAALouisville Bats · 48 PAwOBA .256 → .216 (−41)K% 20.8% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.83%	÷0.991	×1.200	—	—	25.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.42%	÷1.023	×0.690	—	×1.018	7.15%
HBP% /PA	2.08%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.99%
Singles /BIP	15.62%	÷0.999	×0.930	—	×1.018	14.81%
Doubles /BIP	9.38%	÷0.975	×0.830	—	×1.018	8.12%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.922	×0.970	—	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.009	×0.840	—	×1.018	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 100, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .256 → .216; ISO .071 → .061; BABIP .250 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAALouisville Bats · 218 PAwOBA .306 → .242 (−64)K% 31.2% → 40.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.19%	÷0.926	×1.200	—	—	40.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.34%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×1.033	5.19%
HBP% /PA	1.83%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.78%
Singles /BIP	22.83%	÷0.999	×0.930	×0.965	×1.033	21.19%
Doubles /BIP	7.09%	÷1.108	×0.830	×0.965	×1.033	5.29%
Triples /BIP	1.57%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.965	×1.033	1.32%
Home runs /BIP	4.72%	÷0.928	×0.840	—	×1.033	4.42%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 100, 2B 122, 3B 130, K 85, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .306 → .242; ISO .159 → .125; BABIP .325 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 97 PAwOBA .455 → .391 (−65)K% 17.5% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.53%	÷1.014	×1.220	—	—	21.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.19%	÷1.051	×0.680	—	×0.998	3.99%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.840	—	×0.998	0.86%
Singles /BIP	23.61%	÷0.971	×0.920	×1.002	×0.998	22.37%
Doubles /BIP	9.72%	÷1.012	×0.910	×1.002	×0.998	8.74%
Triples /BIP	2.78%	÷1.150	×0.880	×1.002	×0.998	2.13%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷0.970	×0.800	—	×0.998	6.86%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 94, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 103, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .455 → .391; ISO .326 → .271; BABIP .394 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 255 PAwOBA .316 → .272 (−43)K% 22.0% → 25.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.96%	÷1.050	×1.220	—	—	25.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷0.966	×0.680	—	×1.012	4.19%
HBP% /PA	2.35%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	2.00%
Singles /BIP	19.08%	÷1.018	×0.920	×1.017	×1.012	17.73%
Doubles /BIP	6.94%	÷1.019	×0.910	×1.017	×1.012	6.38%
Triples /BIP	2.31%	÷1.109	×0.880	×1.017	×1.012	1.89%
Home runs /BIP	4.05%	÷1.048	×0.800	—	×1.012	3.13%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 104, 2B 104, 3B 122, K 110, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .316 → .272; ISO .179 → .149; BABIP .293 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 A+Bakersfield Blaze · 277 PAwOBA .366 → .289 (−77)K% 25.6% → 34.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.63%	÷0.999	×1.340	—	—	34.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.05%	÷0.977	×0.710	—	×0.998	3.67%
HBP% /PA	1.44%	—	×0.790	—	×0.998	1.14%
Singles /BIP	15.93%	÷0.976	×0.910	×1.048	×0.998	15.55%
Doubles /BIP	9.89%	÷0.970	×0.820	×1.048	×0.998	8.75%
Triples /BIP	1.65%	÷0.900	×0.760	×1.048	×0.998	1.46%
Home runs /BIP	9.34%	÷1.216	×0.920	—	×0.998	7.05%

Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 95, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.

Result: wOBA .366 → .289; ISO .296 → .218; BABIP .301 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .