Collin McHugh projections, WAR, contract

Collin McHugh P Atlanta Braves

Age 39 RHP 6'2" / 191 lbs MLB peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 175 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 104

ERA4.19

FIP4.39

K%21.0%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP175

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL6060

CMD6060

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.3

Whiff%

p5325.7%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p210.346

CT+0.6

SL-3.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2012	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	8	4	21	99	17	6	5	50%	2.7	17.2%	6.1%	11.1%	5.1%	7.59	5.20	-0.1
2012	25	MLB RAW	New York Mets	8	4	21	99	17	6	5	50%	2.7	17.2%	6.1%	11.1%	5.1%	7.59	5.40	-0.1
2013	26	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	7	5	26	125	11	5	6	71%	3.7	8.8%	4.0%	4.8%	4.3%	10.04	5.20	-0.1
2013	26	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	7	5	26	125	11	5	6	71%	3.7	8.8%	4.0%	4.8%	4.8%	10.04	5.83	-0.3
2014	27	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	25	25	155	619	157	40	13	100%	6.2	25.4%	6.5%	18.9%	2.2%	2.73	2.96	+3.8
2014	27	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	25	25	155	619	157	40	13	100%	6.2	25.4%	6.5%	18.9%	2.1%	2.73	2.94	+3.8
2015	28	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	32	32	204	859	171	51	19	100%	6.4	19.9%	5.9%	14.0%	2.3%	3.89	3.42	+3.7
2015	28	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	32	32	204	859	171	51	19	100%	6.4	19.9%	5.9%	14.0%	2.2%	3.89	3.38	+3.8
2016	29	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	33	33	185	796	177	53	25	100%	5.6	22.2%	6.7%	15.6%	3.2%	4.34	3.84	+2.4
2016	29	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	33	33	185	796	177	53	25	100%	5.6	22.2%	6.7%	15.6%	3.1%	4.34	3.80	+2.4
2017	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	17	17	79	345	74	25	8	100%	4.7	21.0%	7.2%	13.8%	2.5%	3.86	3.60	+1.2
2017	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	17	17	79	345	74	25	8	100%	4.7	21.4%	7.2%	14.2%	2.3%	3.86	3.49	+1.4
2018	31	MLB MLE	Houston Astros	58	0	72	283	94	21	6	0%	1.2	33.2%	7.4%	25.8%	2.2%	1.99	2.43	+1.8
2018	31	MLB RAW	Houston Astros	58	0	72	283	94	21	6	0%	1.2	33.2%	7.4%	25.8%	2.1%	1.99	2.45	+1.8
2019	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	8	78	333	87	32	13	21%	2.0	25.9%	9.5%	16.4%	3.9%	4.83	4.25	+0.3
2019	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	8	78	333	87	32	13	21%	2.0	26.1%	9.6%	16.5%	3.9%	4.83	4.26	+0.3
2021	34	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	37	7	64	247	74	10	3	19%	1.7	30.0%	4.0%	25.9%	1.2%	1.55	1.77	+2.2
2021	34	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	37	7	64	247	74	10	3	19%	1.7	30.0%	4.0%	25.9%	1.2%	1.55	1.87	+2.1
2022	35	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	58	0	69	272	75	13	5	0%	1.2	27.6%	4.8%	22.8%	1.8%	2.60	2.39	+1.8
2022	35	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	58	0	69	272	75	13	5	0%	1.2	27.6%	4.8%	22.8%	1.8%	2.60	2.44	+1.8
2023	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	2	66	300	56	25	5	4%	1.5	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	1.9%	4.39	3.64	+0.7
2023	36	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	2	66	300	56	25	5	4%	1.5	17.5%	7.8%	9.7%	1.9%	4.39	3.64	+0.7
2023	36	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	2	66	300	56	25	5	4%	1.5	18.7%	8.3%	10.3%	1.7%	4.39	3.53	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			346	127	993	4156	967	270	106	37%	2.9	23.3%	6.5%	16.8%	2.6%	3.72	3.36	+14.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	39	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.0%	8.9%	12.1%	2.8%	4.19	4.39	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	40	MLB MLE	ATL	133	0	140	591	117	57	19	0%	1.1	19.8%	9.6%	10.3%	3.3%	4.57	4.82	-0.4
2027	40	MLB CTX	ATL	133	0	140	591	117	57	19	0%	1.1	19.8%	9.6%	10.3%	3.3%	4.57	4.82	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		479	127	1133	4747	1084	327	125	27%	2.4	22.8%	6.9%	16.0%	2.6%	3.82	3.49	+14.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		85	22	200	838	191	58	22	26%	2.4	22.8%	6.9%	16.0%	2.6%	3.82	3.49	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		359	133	1019	4278	987	279	110	37%	2.8	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	2.6%	3.76	3.39	+13.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	26	200	839	194	55	22	37%	2.8	23.1%	6.5%	16.6%	2.6%	3.76	3.39	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Collin McHugh (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.39	21.0%	8.9%	2.8%	—	4.82	19.8%	10.3%	140	+0.43	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2008 · 3.48 FIP	39	SU	3.48	15.9%	9.3%	1.0%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	126	39
Takashi Saito R 2009 · 3.86 FIP	39	SU	3.86	21.7%	9.6%	2.5%	.277	3.07	26.7%	20.0%	93	-0.79	1.50	338	38
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	36
Logan Duran R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	37	SP-	3.66	15.5%	8.9%	1.4%	.427	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	187	33
Gaudencio Aguirre R 2015 · 3.25 FIP	42	SU	3.25	14.8%	8.6%	0.6%	.293	3.88	14.9%	6.8%	75	+0.63	3.25	123	32
Hector Navarro R 2017 · 3.53 FIP	37	SU	3.53	11.5%	5.6%	1.3%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	2.30	126	31
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	25
Francisco Campos R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	42	SP	4.77	11.5%	7.9%	3.0%	.303	4.08	12.2%	7.0%	197	-0.69	4.06	332	24
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2017 · 3.51 FIP	38	SU	3.51	13.3%	2.5%	2.2%	.388	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	119	24
Juan Antonio Pena L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	37	SP-	4.20	13.6%	9.9%	1.8%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	149	21
Pablo Ortega R 2016 · 4.01 FIP	39	SP	4.01	8.9%	4.8%	1.9%	.262	4.49	13.3%	7.1%	148	+0.48	4.01	375	21
Walter Silva R 2016 · 4.22 FIP	39	SP	4.22	10.3%	5.5%	2.4%	.294	4.35	10.0%	1.8%	235	+0.13	3.67	453	21
Hisanori Takahashi L 2012 · 4.04 FIP	37	SU	4.04	24.5%	6.1%	4.1%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	240	11
Mauricio Lara L 2017 · 3.70 FIP	38	SP	3.70	12.0%	6.3%	1.5%	.301	4.96	12.3%	5.5%	111	+1.26	3.62	444	1
Lorenzo Barcelo R 2016 · 3.48 FIP	38	SP	3.48	12.8%	1.1%	2.4%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	259	0
Jason Lane L 2015 · 5.56 FIP	38	SP	5.56	8.4%	6.2%	4.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	5.56	164	0

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.5	100	22.6%	7.3%	1.03	3.87
Alex Wood ('24)	6.3	114	22.1%	7.1%	0.91	3.78
Garrett Richards ('22)	4.9	98	20.4%	8.7%	0.85	3.87
Daniel Hudson ('24)	4.3	71	22.8%	7.7%	1.01	3.74
Jeff Fassero ('06)	10.2	136	18.6%	8.2%	0.95	4.11
Carlos Villanueva ('16)	5.0	91	20.4%	7.6%	1.25	4.31
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45