Ryan Lavarnway

PosC

B/TR/R

Born1987-08-07

Age (2027)39

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2022

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2019	31	AAACLE	190	.226/.342/.371	6	0	58	—	.189/.267/.302
2019	31	MLBCIN	19	.278/.316/.722	2	0	173	0.6
2021	33	AAACLE	199	.260/.337/.520	13	0	68	—	.204/.256/.366
2021	33	MLBCleveland Ind…	30	.250/.276/.357	0	0	69	0.4
2022	34	AAA/INTL2 orgs	371	.247/.347/.422	13	0	64	—	.185/.268/.301
2023	35	No MLB games played
2024	36	No MLB games played
2025	37	No MLB games played
2026	38	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.0

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2009	21	A	Greenville Drive	—	466	404	115	36	2	21	50	113	6	1	2	285	372	540	911	255	341	24	11	393	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	190	158	45	9	0	8	26	42	4	0	0	285	399	494	893	209	336	22	14	393	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+	Salem Red Sox	—	360	304	88	18	0	14	44	62	9	1	0	289	395	487	882	197	320	17	12	390	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	INTL	Peoria Javelinas	—	100	82	22	3	0	3	16	16	0	0	0	268	388	415	802	146	292	16	16	357	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	43	39	9	2	0	2	4	10	0	0	0	231	302	436	738	205	259	23	9	327	103	+0	+0	+2	+10	+1	1.3
2011	23	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	264	227	67	18	0	18	32	60	4	1	1	295	392	612	1.004	317	327	23	12	431	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AA	Portland Sea Dogs	—	239	208	59	5	0	14	25	47	2	0	0	284	366	510	876	226	298	20	10	379	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	20	14	5	1	0	0	5	5	1	0	0	357	550	429	979	71	556	25	25	456	195	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	166	153	24	8	0	2	11	41	0	0	0	157	213	248	462	92	196	25	7	210	23	-15	+0	-1	+10	+4	-0.3
2012	24	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	367	319	94	22	0	8	40	62	4	1	0	295	380	439	819	144	340	17	11	364	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	82	77	23	7	0	1	2	17	2	0	0	299	333	429	762	130	367	21	2	335	104	+0	+0	+0	+5	+2	0.8
2013	25	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	214	180	45	9	0	3	25	25	4	0	0	250	354	350	704	100	268	12	12	318	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	257	219	62	10	0	3	33	45	5	0	0	283	389	370	759	87	345	18	13	351	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	106	94	18	6	0	2	12	28	0	0	0	191	283	319	602	128	250	26	11	276	68	-4	+0	-1	+3	+2	-0.0
2015	27	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	—	49	41	11	2	0	2	8	7	0	0	0	268	388	463	851	195	281	14	16	381	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AAA	Gwinnett Braves	—	107	98	27	8	0	0	8	18	1	0	1	276	336	357	694	82	338	17	7	316	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AA	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	272	233	61	13	0	6	34	47	2	1	0	262	361	395	755	133	301	17	12	340	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	304	264	63	9	0	6	31	65	5	0	2	239	330	341	671	102	291	21	10	305	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	303	264	76	23	1	9	29	57	8	0	0	288	375	485	860	197	338	19	10	379	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	MLB	Cincinnati Reds	—	19	18	5	2	0	2	1	5	0	0	0	278	316	722	1.038	444	273	26	5	439	173	+2	+0	+0	+4	+0	0.6
2019	31	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	190	159	36	5	0	6	25	36	3	0	0	226	342	371	713	145	250	19	13	322	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	MLB	Cleveland Indians	—	30	28	7	3	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	250	276	357	633	107	389	33	3	272	69	-1	+0	+1	+4	+1	0.4
2021	33	AAA	Columbus Clippers	—	199	177	46	7	0	13	20	54	1	0	0	260	337	520	856	260	300	27	10	373	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	327	278	68	15	0	11	40	69	7	0	0	245	354	417	771	173	285	21	12	346	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	INTL	Melbourne Aces	—	44	42	11	2	0	2	2	7	0	0	0	262	295	452	748	190	273	16	5	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	446	409	86	28	0	9	31	111	2	0	0	210	269	345	614	134	264	25	7	274	71	-15	+0	+1	+36	+10	3.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2009	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	466	422	94	28	2	16	32	151	6	1	2	223	287	412	699	190	291	32	7	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	190	167	40	7	0	6	17	51	4	0	0	240	324	389	714	150	301	27	9	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	—	360	320	75	14	0	12	28	97	9	1	0	234	314	391	704	156	291	27	8	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	43	39	9	2	0	2	4	10	0	0	0	231	302	436	738	205	259	23	9	321	103	+0	+0	+2	+10	+1	1.3
2011	23	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	264	237	62	16	0	16	22	74	4	1	1	262	335	532	866	270	304	28	8	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AA MLE	Portland Sea Dogs	—	239	215	51	4	0	10	18	58	2	0	0	237	302	395	697	158	269	24	8	309	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	166	153	23	7	0	2	11	41	0	0	0	150	207	235	443	85	196	25	7	202	23	-15	+0	-1	+10	+4	-0.3
2012	24	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	367	334	87	18	0	6	25	76	4	1	0	260	320	368	688	108	313	21	7	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	82	77	22	6	0	1	2	17	2	0	0	286	321	403	724	117	367	21	2	322	104	+0	+0	+0	+5	+2	0.8
2013	25	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	214	189	44	7	0	3	16	30	4	0	0	233	306	317	624	85	248	14	7	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	257	232	59	9	0	2	20	55	5	0	0	254	327	319	646	65	329	21	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	106	95	18	6	0	2	11	28	0	0	0	189	274	316	589	126	250	26	10	269	68	-4	+0	-1	+3	+2	-0.0
2015	27	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	49	44	11	2	0	2	5	9	0	0	0	250	327	432	758	182	252	18	10	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Braves	—	107	101	24	7	0	0	5	21	1	0	1	238	280	307	587	69	299	20	5	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	—	272	246	54	11	0	4	21	59	2	1	0	220	286	313	599	93	265	22	8	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	304	274	55	7	0	5	21	84	5	0	2	201	270	281	551	80	261	28	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	303	271	65	18	1	7	22	64	8	0	0	240	316	391	707	151	285	21	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	—	19	18	5	2	0	2	1	5	0	0	0	278	316	722	1.038	444	273	26	5	423	173	+2	+0	+0	+4	+0	0.6
2019	31	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	190	169	32	4	0	5	15	44	3	0	0	189	267	302	569	112	210	23	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	—	30	28	7	3	0	0	1	10	0	0	0	250	276	357	633	107	389	33	3	270	69	-1	+0	+1	+4	+1	0.4
2021	33	AAA MLE	Columbus Clippers	—	199	186	38	6	0	8	12	65	1	0	0	204	256	366	622	161	258	33	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	327	292	54	13	0	7	26	86	7	0	0	185	268	301	569	116	230	26	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	466	422	94	28	2	16	32	151	6	1	2	223	287	412	699	190	299	32	7	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	A RAW	Greenville Drive	—	466	404	115	36	2	21	50	113	6	1	2	285	372	540	911	255	341	24	11	393	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	650	577	137	25	0	21	53	175	13	1	0	237	316	390	706	153	299	27	8	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	650	544	155	30	0	25	86	120	13	1	0	285	395	478	873	193	320	18	13	386	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	566	509	127	22	0	30	45	148	7	1	1	250	319	470	789	220	289	26	8	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA RAW	4 teams	—	566	488	140	26	0	34	66	122	7	1	1	287	380	549	929	262	315	22	12	402	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	533	487	110	25	0	8	36	117	4	1	0	226	285	326	611	101	277	22	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	533	472	118	30	0	10	51	103	4	1	0	250	328	377	705	127	296	19	10	316	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	296	266	67	14	0	4	18	47	6	0	0	252	314	350	663	98	285	16	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	296	257	68	16	0	4	27	42	6	0	0	265	348	374	722	109	295	14	9	323	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	257	232	59	9	0	2	20	55	5	0	0	254	327	319	646	65	326	21	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA RAW	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	257	219	62	10	0	3	33	45	5	0	0	283	389	370	759	87	345	18	13	351	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	155	139	28	7	0	4	16	37	0	0	0	201	284	338	622	137	245	24	10	280	76	-5	+0	-1	+3	+3	0.1
2015	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	155	135	29	8	0	4	20	35	0	0	0	215	316	363	679	148	260	23	13	309	76	-5	+0	-1	+3	+3	0.1
2016	28	AA MLE	2 teams	—	379	346	78	17	0	4	27	80	3	1	1	225	287	309	596	84	279	21	7	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AA RAW	2 teams	—	379	331	88	21	0	6	42	65	3	1	1	266	354	384	737	118	312	17	11	333	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	304	274	55	7	0	5	21	84	5	0	2	201	270	281	551	80	266	28	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	—	304	264	63	9	0	6	31	65	5	0	2	239	330	341	671	102	291	21	10	305	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	303	271	65	18	1	7	22	64	8	0	0	240	316	391	707	151	290	21	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	—	303	264	76	23	1	9	29	57	8	0	0	288	375	485	860	197	338	19	10	379	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	209	187	37	6	0	7	16	49	3	0	0	198	272	342	614	144	224	23	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	209	177	41	7	0	8	26	41	3	0	0	232	340	407	747	175	252	20	12	333	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	229	214	44	9	0	8	13	75	1	0	0	206	254	360	614	154	275	33	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	229	205	53	10	0	13	21	64	1	0	0	259	329	498	827	239	312	28	9	360	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	371	332	61	14	0	8	30	97	7	0	0	184	266	298	564	114	231	26	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	371	320	79	17	0	13	42	76	7	0	0	247	347	422	769	175	283	20	11	344	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	21	A MLE	Greenville Drive	—	466	425	94	28	2	16	32	151	6	1	2	221	287	409	696	188	291	32	7	302	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	650	579	137	25	0	21	53	175	13	1	0	237	316	389	704	152	294	27	8	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	23	AAA MLE	4 teams	—	566	509	127	22	0	30	45	148	7	1	1	250	319	470	789	220	285	26	8	338	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	533	488	110	25	0	8	36	117	4	1	0	225	285	326	610	100	277	22	7	274	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	296	270	67	14	0	4	18	47	6	0	0	248	314	344	658	96	281	16	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	26	AAA MLE	Pawtucket Red Sox	—	257	230	59	9	0	2	20	55	5	0	0	257	327	322	649	65	329	21	8	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	155	138	28	7	0	4	16	37	0	0	0	203	284	341	624	138	251	24	10	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	28	AA MLE	2 teams	—	379	346	78	17	0	4	27	80	3	1	1	225	287	309	596	84	275	21	7	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	29	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	304	275	55	7	0	5	21	84	5	0	2	200	270	280	550	80	261	28	7	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	30	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	303	270	65	18	1	7	22	64	8	0	0	241	316	393	708	152	285	21	7	305	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	31	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	209	188	37	6	0	7	16	49	3	0	0	197	272	340	612	144	216	23	8	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	229	213	44	9	0	8	13	75	1	0	0	207	254	362	616	155	275	33	6	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	34	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	371	331	61	14	0	8	30	97	7	0	0	184	266	299	565	115	230	26	8	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	446	409	86	28	0	9	31	111	2	0	0	210	269	345	614	134	264	25	7	274	82	-15	+0	+1	+36	+10	3.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	125	41	0	13	45	162	3	0	0	210	268	344	612	134	264	25	7	274	82	-22	+0	+1	+52	+14	4.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4718	4256	962	201	3	124	349	1179	68	5	6	226	295	362	657	136	280	25	7	289	82	-15	+0	+1	+36	+10	3.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	586	132	28	0	17	48	162	9	1	1	225	294	360	654	135	278	25	7	289	82	-22	+0	+1	+52	+14	4.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2022 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 327 PAwOBA .339 → .254 (−85)K% 21.1% → 26.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.10%	÷0.966	×1.200	—	—	26.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.23%	÷0.978	×0.690	—	×0.940	8.11%
HBP% /PA	2.14%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	1.89%
Singles /BIP	20.10%	÷1.054	×0.930	×0.979	×0.940	16.32%
Doubles /BIP	7.18%	÷0.898	×0.830	×0.979	×0.940	6.11%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.930	×0.970	×0.979	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.26%	÷1.032	×0.700	—	×0.940	3.36%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 111, 2B 80, 3B 86, K 93, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 35 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.

Result: wOBA .339 → .254; ISO .173 → .121; BABIP .285 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAColumbus Clippers · 199 PAwOBA .361 → .268 (−93)K% 27.1% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.14%	÷1.002	×1.200	—	—	32.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.55%	÷1.008	×0.690	—	×0.940	6.14%
HBP% /PA	0.50%	—	×0.940	—	×0.940	0.44%
Singles /BIP	21.14%	÷0.949	×0.930	×0.996	×0.940	19.39%
Doubles /BIP	5.69%	÷0.949	×0.830	×0.996	×0.940	4.66%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.920	×0.996	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	10.57%	÷1.034	×0.700	—	×0.940	6.72%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 90, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 100, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 34 vs a level average of 27.2 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .361 → .268; ISO .260 → .170; BABIP .300 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAAColumbus Clippers · 190 PAwOBA .319 → .254 (−65)K% 18.9% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.95%	÷0.993	×1.200	—	—	22.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.16%	÷1.089	×0.690	—	×0.952	7.93%
HBP% /PA	1.58%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	1.41%
Singles /BIP	20.33%	÷0.970	×0.930	×0.950	×0.952	17.63%
Doubles /BIP	4.07%	÷0.995	×0.830	×0.950	×0.952	3.07%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.950	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.88%	÷0.985	×0.840	—	×0.952	3.96%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 94, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 99, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .319 → .254; ISO .145 → .121; BABIP .250 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 303 PAwOBA .369 → .305 (−64)K% 18.8% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.81%	÷1.063	×1.200	—	—	21.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.57%	÷0.890	×0.690	—	×0.962	7.14%
HBP% /PA	2.64%	—	×0.940	—	×0.962	2.39%
Singles /BIP	20.77%	÷0.984	×0.930	×0.988	×0.962	18.65%
Doubles /BIP	11.11%	÷1.040	×0.830	×0.988	×0.962	8.42%
Triples /BIP	0.48%	÷0.900	×0.970	×0.988	×0.962	0.49%
Home runs /BIP	4.35%	÷1.041	×0.840	—	×0.962	3.37%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 97, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 113, BB 78 — applied at half strength. Age: age 31 vs a level average of 27.2 → −3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .369 → .305; ISO .197 → .155; BABIP .338 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2017 AAANashville Sounds · 304 PAwOBA .301 → .249 (−52)K% 21.4% → 27.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.38%	÷1.003	×1.290	—	—	27.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.20%	÷1.029	×0.710	—	×0.972	6.84%
HBP% /PA	1.64%	—	×0.980	—	×0.972	1.57%
Singles /BIP	24.12%	÷0.984	×0.900	×1.034	×0.972	22.17%
Doubles /BIP	4.52%	÷1.021	×0.810	×1.034	×0.972	3.61%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.810	×1.034	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.02%	÷0.868	×0.780	—	×0.972	2.63%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 80, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .301 → .249; ISO .102 → .085; BABIP .291 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AANew Hampshire Fisher Cats · 272 PAwOBA .335 → .264 (−71)K% 17.3% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.28%	÷0.969	×1.220	—	—	21.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.079	×0.700	—	×0.958	7.77%
HBP% /PA	0.74%	—	×0.850	—	×0.958	0.60%
Singles /BIP	22.58%	÷0.995	×0.970	×0.985	×0.958	20.77%
Doubles /BIP	6.99%	÷1.000	×0.860	×0.985	×0.958	5.67%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.031	×0.950	×0.985	×0.958	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.23%	÷1.292	×0.780	—	×0.958	1.87%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 158, 1B 99, 2B 100, 3B 106, K 94, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .335 → .264; ISO .133 → .092; BABIP .301 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAAGwinnett Braves · 107 PAwOBA .308 → .260 (−47)K% 16.8% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.82%	÷1.046	×1.200	—	—	19.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.48%	÷1.022	×0.690	—	×0.982	4.96%
HBP% /PA	0.93%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.86%
Singles /BIP	23.75%	÷1.017	×0.930	×1.012	×0.982	21.58%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷0.991	×0.830	×1.012	×0.982	8.32%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.012	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.132	×0.840	—	×0.982	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 126, 1B 103, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 109, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .308 → .260; ISO .082 → .068; BABIP .338 → .299. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2015 AAAGwinnett Braves · 49 PAwOBA .371 → .303 (−68)K% 14.3% → 18.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.29%	÷0.940	×1.200	—	—	18.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.33%	÷1.103	×0.690	—	×0.992	10.13%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	20.59%	÷0.996	×0.930	—	×0.992	19.06%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.988	×0.830	—	×0.992	4.90%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.988	×0.970	—	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.014	×0.840	—	×0.992	4.84%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 99, 2B 98, 3B 98, K 88, BB 121 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .371 → .303; ISO .195 → .166; BABIP .281 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .