Caleb Joseph

PosC

B/TR/R

Born1986-06-18

Age (2027)41

No MLB projection yet. Career stats below are historical.

Overview

AAALAST SEASON 2019

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2017	31	MLBBAL	266	.256/.287/.413	8	0	90	1.7
2018	32	AAABAL	97	.273/.340/.364	2	0	59	—	.231/.278/.308
2018	32	MLBBAL	280	.219/.255/.321	3	2	58	0.2
2019	33	AAAARI	179	.265/.328/.481	7	0	46	—	.181/.232/.313
2019	33	MLBARI	41	.211/.250/.263	0	0	37	0.4
2020	34	No MLB games played
2021	35	No MLB games played
2022	36	No MLB games played
2023	37	No MLB games played
2024	38	No MLB games played
2025	39	No MLB games played
2026	40	No MLB games played

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.2

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2018-2020

Speed20

Barrel%10

xwOBA10

Avg EV10

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2009	23	A+	Frederick Keys	—	412	380	108	23	2	12	26	64	5	2	1	284	338	450	788	166	315	16	6	349	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	420	378	89	15	1	11	33	63	4	1	6	235	304	368	671	132	254	15	8	300	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	48	41	16	2	0	1	4	6	1	0	0	390	457	512	969	122	417	12	8	415	167	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	429	374	96	15	1	7	40	60	6	5	2	257	338	358	696	102	285	14	9	312	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	76	68	14	4	1	0	8	10	0	0	0	206	289	294	584	88	241	13	11	269	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	317	279	76	17	1	12	29	60	3	2	0	272	347	470	817	197	303	19	9	355	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	570	518	155	31	2	22	39	92	3	4	2	299	352	494	846	195	321	16	7	366	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	INTL	Bravos de Margarita	—	97	91	21	4	0	3	5	28	0	0	0	231	271	374	644	143	295	29	5	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	275	246	51	9	0	9	17	69	3	0	1	207	267	354	621	146	246	25	6	270	64	-12	-0	+20	+7	+6	2.0
2014	28	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	95	92	24	7	0	2	3	22	0	0	0	261	284	402	686	141	324	23	3	303	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	355	320	75	16	1	11	27	72	3	0	0	234	299	394	693	159	269	20	8	306	86	-6	+0	+13	+6	+8	2.2
2016	30	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	141	132	23	3	0	0	7	28	0	0	0	174	216	197	413	23	221	20	5	190	14	-14	+0	+8	+4	+3	0.1
2016	30	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	42	40	10	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	250	286	250	536		286	12	5	249	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	30	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	23	21	6	1	0	1	1	7	1	0	1	286	348	476	824	190	385	30	4	366	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	30	A+	Frederick Keys	—	23	17	5	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	0	294	400	529	929	235	267	17	9	357	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	31	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	266	254	65	14	1	8	10	72	1	0	0	256	287	413	700	157	328	27	4	308	90	-3	+0	+9	+5	+6	1.7
2018	32	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	280	265	58	14	2	3	10	68	3	2	1	219	255	321	576	102	282	24	4	257	58	-14	+0	+3	+7	+6	0.2
2018	32	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	97	88	24	2	0	2	8	19	1	0	0	273	340	364	704	91	328	20	8	321	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	33	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	41	38	8	2	0	0	1	10	1	0	0	211	250	263	513	53	286	24	2	230	37	-3	+0	+2	+4	+1	0.4
2019	33	AAA	Reno Aces	—	179	162	43	12	1	7	13	44	2	0	0	265	328	481	809	216	319	25	7	352	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1358	1255	280	58	4	31	72	319	11	2	2	223	271	350	621	127	274	23	5	275	72	-45	-0	+55	+32	+29	7.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2009	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	412	390	89	17	1	10	16	91	5	2	1	228	268	354	621	126	272	22	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	420	389	83	13	1	8	22	79	4	1	6	213	263	314	576	100	243	19	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	429	389	92	13	1	5	25	71	6	5	2	237	293	314	606	77	263	17	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	76	71	12	3	1	0	5	12	0	0	0	169	224	239	463	70	214	16	7	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	317	288	66	15	1	9	20	73	3	2	0	229	286	382	668	153	264	23	6	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	570	536	134	28	2	15	21	113	3	4	2	250	282	394	676	144	278	20	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	275	246	50	9	0	8	17	69	3	0	1	203	263	337	601	134	246	25	6	263	64	-12	-0	+20	+7	+6	2.0
2014	28	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	95	93	20	6	0	1	2	26	0	0	0	215	232	312	543	97	284	27	2	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	355	323	74	16	1	10	25	72	3	0	0	229	291	378	668	149	269	20	7	296	86	-6	+0	+13	+6	+8	2.2
2016	30	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	141	132	23	3	0	0	7	28	0	0	0	174	216	197	413	23	221	20	5	190	14	-14	+0	+8	+4	+3	0.1
2016	30	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	42	41	9	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	220	238	220	458		252	14	2	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	30	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	23	21	5	1	0	1	1	9	1	0	1	238	304	429	733	190	337	39	4	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	30	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	23	18	5	1	0	1	1	6	1	0	0	278	350	500	850	222	225	26	4	344	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	266	254	64	14	1	7	10	72	1	0	0	252	283	398	681	146	328	27	4	302	90	-3	+0	+9	+5	+6	1.7
2018	32	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	280	265	58	14	2	3	10	68	3	2	1	219	255	321	576	102	282	24	4	255	58	-14	+0	+3	+7	+6	0.2
2018	32	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	97	91	21	1	0	2	5	23	1	0	0	231	278	308	586	77	285	24	5	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	33	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	—	41	38	8	2	0	0	1	10	1	0	0	211	250	263	513	53	286	24	2	222	37	-3	+0	+2	+4	+1	0.4
2019	33	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	179	166	30	8	1	4	9	59	2	0	0	181	232	313	545	133	234	33	5	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	412	390	89	17	1	10	16	91	5	2	1	228	268	354	621	126	272	22	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	—	412	380	108	23	2	12	26	64	5	2	1	284	338	450	788	166	315	16	6	349	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	468	431	93	15	1	9	25	88	5	1	6	216	267	318	585	102	248	19	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AA RAW	2 teams	—	468	419	105	17	1	12	37	69	5	1	6	251	319	382	701	131	271	15	8	311	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	429	389	92	13	1	5	25	71	6	5	2	237	293	314	606	77	274	17	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	—	429	374	96	15	1	7	40	60	6	5	2	257	338	358	696	102	285	14	9	312	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	393	359	78	18	2	9	25	85	3	2	0	217	274	354	628	136	257	22	6	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	393	347	90	21	2	12	37	70	3	2	0	259	336	435	771	176	290	18	9	338	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	667	628	157	33	2	18	25	133	3	4	2	250	282	395	677	145	285	20	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	AA RAW	2 teams	—	667	609	176	35	2	25	44	120	3	4	2	289	340	476	816	187	318	18	7	354	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	370	339	69	15	0	9	19	95	3	0	1	204	252	327	580	124	252	26	5	257	60	-18	-0	+20	+7	+8	1.7
2014	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	370	338	75	16	0	11	20	91	3	0	1	222	271	367	638	145	268	25	5	278	60	-18	-0	+20	+7	+8	1.7
2015	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	355	323	74	16	1	10	25	72	3	0	0	229	291	378	668	149	264	20	7	296	86	-6	+0	+13	+6	+8	2.2
2015	29	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	355	320	75	16	1	11	27	72	3	0	0	234	299	394	693	159	269	20	8	306	86	-6	+0	+13	+6	+8	2.2
2016	30	MLB MLE	4 teams	—	229	212	41	5	0	1	10	48	2	0	1	193	237	231	468	38	241	21	4	216	32	-18	-0	+8	+4	+5	-0.2
2016	30	MLB RAW	4 teams	—	229	210	44	5	0	2	12	44	2	0	1	210	259	262	521	52	251	19	5	235	32	-18	-0	+8	+4	+5	-0.2
2017	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	266	254	64	14	1	7	10	72	1	0	0	252	283	398	681	146	326	27	4	302	90	-3	+0	+9	+5	+6	1.7
2017	31	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	—	266	254	65	14	1	8	10	72	1	0	0	256	287	413	700	157	328	27	4	308	90	-3	+0	+9	+5	+6	1.7
2018	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	377	356	78	16	2	4	15	91	4	2	1	219	259	309	568	90	282	24	4	255	59	-19	+0	+3	+7	+8	-0.1
2018	32	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	377	353	82	16	2	5	18	87	4	2	1	232	277	331	609	99	294	23	5	273	59	-19	+0	+3	+7	+8	-0.1
2019	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	220	204	38	10	1	4	10	69	3	0	0	186	235	304	539	118	256	31	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	33	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	220	200	51	14	1	7	14	54	3	0	0	255	313	440	753	185	312	25	6	329	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	23	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	412	388	89	17	1	10	16	91	5	2	1	229	268	356	623	126	272	22	4	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	24	AA MLE	2 teams	—	468	435	93	15	1	9	25	88	5	1	6	214	267	315	582	101	243	19	5	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	25	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	429	395	92	13	1	5	25	71	6	5	2	233	293	309	602	76	263	17	6	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	393	362	78	18	2	9	25	85	3	2	0	215	274	351	625	135	254	22	6	275	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	27	AA MLE	2 teams	—	667	634	157	33	2	18	25	133	3	4	2	248	282	391	673	144	278	20	4	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	370	345	69	15	0	9	19	95	3	0	1	200	252	322	574	122	255	26	5	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	29	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	355	324	74	16	1	10	25	72	3	0	0	228	291	377	667	148	269	20	7	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	30	MLB MLE	4 teams	—	229	215	41	5	0	1	10	48	2	0	1	191	237	228	465	37	239	21	4	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	31	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	266	253	64	14	1	7	10	72	1	0	0	253	283	399	682	146	328	27	4	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	32	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	377	355	78	16	2	4	15	91	4	2	1	220	259	310	569	90	283	24	4	255	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	33	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	220	205	38	10	1	4	10	69	3	0	0	185	235	302	537	117	244	31	5	233	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1358	1255	280	58	4	31	72	319	11	2	2	223	271	350	621	127	274	23	5	275	68	-45	-0	+55	+32	+29	7.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	135	28	2	15	34	153	5	1	1	225	271	353	624	128	276	24	5	275	68	-22	-0	+26	+16	+14	3.5
Career	—	MLE		—	4186	3885	873	172	12	86	205	915	38	16	14	225	270	342	612	117	270	22	5	269	68	-45	-0	+55	+32	+29	7.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	603	136	27	2	13	32	142	6	2	2	226	271	342	613	116	271	22	5	269	68	-22	-0	+26	+16	+14	3.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2019 AAAReno Aces · 179 PAwOBA .346 → .236 (−110)K% 24.6% → 32.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.58%	÷0.970	×1.290	—	—	32.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.26%	÷0.986	×0.710	—	×0.942	4.93%
HBP% /PA	1.12%	—	×0.980	—	×0.942	1.03%
Singles /BIP	19.49%	÷1.035	×0.900	×0.950	×0.942	15.16%
Doubles /BIP	10.17%	÷1.025	×0.810	×0.950	×0.942	7.19%
Triples /BIP	0.85%	÷1.150	×0.810	×0.950	×0.942	0.53%
Home runs /BIP	5.93%	÷1.077	×0.780	—	×0.942	4.05%

Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 33 vs a level average of 27.2 → −5.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .346 → .236; ISO .216 → .138; BABIP .319 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AAANorfolk Tides · 97 PAwOBA .313 → .256 (−57)K% 19.6% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.59%	÷1.009	×1.200	—	—	23.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.25%	÷0.997	×0.690	—	×0.952	5.43%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.940	—	×0.952	0.92%
Singles /BIP	28.99%	÷0.984	×0.930	×0.984	×0.952	25.68%
Doubles /BIP	2.90%	÷1.063	×0.830	×0.984	×0.952	2.12%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.984	×0.952	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.90%	÷0.964	×0.840	—	×0.952	2.40%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 97, 2B 113, 3B 130, K 102, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 32 vs a level average of 27.2 → −4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .313 → .256; ISO .091 → .072; BABIP .328 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AAANorfolk Tides · 42 PAwOBA .242 → .204 (−39)K% 11.9% → 14.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.90%	÷0.983	×1.200	—	—	14.53%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.76%	÷1.046	×0.690	—	×0.972	3.05%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.972	0.00%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷1.027	×0.930	—	×0.972	25.16%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.021	×0.830	—	×0.972	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	—	×0.972	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.776	×0.840	—	×0.972	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 55, 1B 105, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 97, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 27.2 → −2.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .242 → .204; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .286 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 AABowie Baysox · 23 PAwOBA .356 → .269 (−86)K% 30.4% → 37.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.43%	÷0.984	×1.220	—	—	37.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.35%	÷1.084	×0.700	—	×0.948	2.66%
HBP% /PA	4.35%	—	×0.850	—	×0.948	3.50%
Singles /BIP	28.57%	÷0.992	×0.970	—	×0.948	26.49%
Doubles /BIP	7.14%	÷1.053	×0.860	—	×0.948	5.53%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	—	×0.948	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.14%	÷1.057	×0.780	—	×0.948	5.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 98, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 97, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 24.8 → −5.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .356 → .269; ISO .190 → .126; BABIP .385 → .337. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2016 A+Frederick Keys · 23 PAwOBA .400 → .344 (−56)K% 17.4% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.39%	÷1.003	×1.420	—	—	24.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.70%	÷0.972	×0.630	—	×0.940	5.30%
HBP% /PA	4.35%	—	×0.860	—	×0.940	3.51%
Singles /BIP	23.08%	÷1.035	×0.940	—	×0.940	19.71%
Doubles /BIP	7.69%	÷0.997	×0.830	—	×0.940	6.02%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.975	×0.800	—	×0.940	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷1.214	×0.900	—	×0.940	5.36%

Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 143, 1B 107, 2B 99, 3B 95, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 30 vs a level average of 22.8 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (7.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .400 → .344; ISO .235 → .199; BABIP .267 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2014 AAANorfolk Tides · 95 PAwOBA .295 → .239 (−56)K% 23.2% → 27.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.16%	÷1.025	×1.200	—	—	27.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.16%	÷1.025	×0.690	—	×0.992	2.11%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.027	×0.930	×0.980	×0.992	18.87%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷0.899	×0.830	×0.980	×0.992	8.97%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.007	×0.970	×0.980	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.86%	÷1.223	×0.840	—	×0.992	1.95%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 145, 1B 105, 2B 80, 3B 101, K 105, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .295 → .239; ISO .141 → .108; BABIP .324 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2013 AABowie Baysox · 570 PAwOBA .361 → .292 (−69)K% 16.1% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.14%	÷0.991	×1.220	—	—	19.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.49%	÷1.189	×0.700	—	×0.978	3.74%
HBP% /PA	0.53%	—	×0.850	—	×0.978	0.44%
Singles /BIP	23.47%	÷1.032	×0.970	×0.950	×0.978	20.50%
Doubles /BIP	7.28%	÷0.890	×0.860	×0.950	×0.978	6.53%
Triples /BIP	0.47%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.950	×0.978	0.46%
Home runs /BIP	5.16%	÷1.140	×0.780	—	×0.978	3.45%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 106, 2B 78, 3B 80, K 98, BB 138 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .361 → .292; ISO .195 → .149; BABIP .321 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2012 AABowie Baysox · 317 PAwOBA .349 → .289 (−59)K% 18.9% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.93%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	23.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.83%	÷0.978	×0.700	—	×0.988	6.25%
HBP% /PA	0.95%	—	×0.850	—	×0.988	0.79%
Singles /BIP	21.00%	÷1.027	×0.970	×0.950	×0.988	18.63%
Doubles /BIP	7.76%	÷0.932	×0.860	×0.950	×0.988	6.72%
Triples /BIP	0.46%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.950	×0.988	0.45%
Home runs /BIP	5.48%	÷1.018	×0.780	—	×0.988	4.15%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 105, 2B 86, 3B 80, K 100, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .349 → .289; ISO .197 → .159; BABIP .303 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .