Zack Cox
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 25 | AAANew Orleans Z… | 344 | .282/.345/.436 | 8 | 2 | 81 | — | .249/.295/.374 |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 425 | .304/.371/.411 | 5 | 0 | 80 | — | .262/.310/.350 |
| 2017 | 28 | AADET | 313 | .281/.358/.361 | 3 | 1 | 71 | — | .253/.306/.316 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 21 | ROK | GCL Cardinals | — | 17 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 400 | 471 | 467 | 937 | 67 | 500 | 18 | 6 | 426 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | INTL | Surprise Rafters | — | 75 | 65 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 262 | 342 | 446 | 789 | 185 | 341 | 28 | 11 | 341 | 117 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 389 | 352 | 103 | 19 | 0 | 10 | 29 | 69 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 293 | 357 | 432 | 788 | 139 | 338 | 18 | 7 | 352 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 180 | 164 | 55 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 335 | 384 | 439 | 823 | 104 | 388 | 16 | 6 | 364 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA | Memphis Redbirds | — | 316 | 299 | 76 | 23 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 63 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 294 | 421 | 716 | 167 | 295 | 20 | 4 | 317 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA | Jacksonville Suns | — | 106 | 95 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 253 | 324 | 368 | 692 | 116 | 338 | 25 | 9 | 310 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA | Jacksonville Suns | — | 325 | 283 | 76 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 68 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 269 | 359 | 367 | 727 | 99 | 341 | 21 | 12 | 330 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 344 | 312 | 88 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 65 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 282 | 345 | 436 | 781 | 154 | 333 | 19 | 8 | 346 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 56 | 55 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 200 | 214 | 345 | 560 | 145 | 270 | 30 | 2 | 245 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA | Jacksonville Suns | — | 369 | 327 | 105 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 38 | 80 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 321 | 395 | 422 | 817 | 101 | 412 | 22 | 10 | 368 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | — | 313 | 274 | 77 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 70 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 281 | 358 | 361 | 720 | 80 | 357 | 22 | 10 | 324 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 21 | ROK MLE | GCL Cardinals | — | 17 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 412 | 400 | 812 | 67 | 396 | 24 | 6 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 389 | 360 | 96 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 21 | 84 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 267 | 318 | 375 | 693 | 108 | 323 | 22 | 5 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | A+ MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 180 | 167 | 50 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 299 | 339 | 395 | 734 | 96 | 369 | 23 | 4 | 319 | 102 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA MLE | Memphis Redbirds | — | 316 | 304 | 69 | 21 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 79 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 256 | 365 | 621 | 138 | 286 | 25 | 2 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 106 | 98 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 286 | 347 | 633 | 112 | 331 | 32 | 7 | 269 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 325 | 296 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 81 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 247 | 310 | 328 | 637 | 81 | 324 | 25 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 344 | 321 | 80 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 83 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 249 | 295 | 374 | 669 | 125 | 313 | 24 | 6 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AAA MLE | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 56 | 55 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 164 | 179 | 291 | 469 | 127 | 237 | 39 | 2 | 181 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 369 | 340 | 94 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 101 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 276 | 330 | 359 | 689 | 82 | 377 | 27 | 7 | 303 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 313 | 285 | 72 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 253 | 306 | 316 | 622 | 63 | 333 | 28 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 92 | 86 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 291 | 322 | 337 | 659 | 47 | 385 | 25 | 3 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | INTL RAW | 2 teams | — | 92 | 80 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 287 | 367 | 450 | 817 | 163 | 375 | 26 | 10 | 356 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 569 | 527 | 146 | 23 | 0 | 11 | 29 | 126 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 277 | 324 | 383 | 708 | 106 | 343 | 22 | 5 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 569 | 516 | 158 | 27 | 0 | 13 | 40 | 98 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 306 | 365 | 434 | 799 | 128 | 355 | 17 | 7 | 356 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 422 | 402 | 93 | 27 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 112 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 231 | 266 | 363 | 629 | 132 | 300 | 27 | 3 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 422 | 394 | 100 | 29 | 1 | 10 | 22 | 90 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 254 | 302 | 409 | 710 | 155 | 305 | 21 | 5 | 315 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 325 | 296 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 81 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 247 | 310 | 328 | 637 | 81 | 330 | 25 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA RAW | Jacksonville Suns | — | 325 | 283 | 76 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 38 | 68 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 269 | 359 | 367 | 727 | 99 | 341 | 21 | 12 | 330 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 344 | 321 | 80 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 83 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 249 | 295 | 374 | 669 | 125 | 318 | 24 | 6 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA RAW | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 344 | 312 | 88 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 65 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 282 | 345 | 436 | 781 | 154 | 333 | 19 | 8 | 346 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 395 | 102 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 123 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 258 | 307 | 344 | 652 | 86 | 363 | 29 | 6 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 425 | 382 | 116 | 24 | 1 | 5 | 39 | 97 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 304 | 371 | 411 | 782 | 107 | 394 | 23 | 9 | 351 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 313 | 285 | 72 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 253 | 306 | 316 | 622 | 63 | 348 | 28 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AA RAW | Erie SeaWolves | — | 313 | 274 | 77 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 70 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 281 | 358 | 361 | 720 | 80 | 357 | 22 | 10 | 324 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2010 | 21 | INTL MLE | 2 teams | — | 92 | 88 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 284 | 322 | 330 | 652 | 45 | 396 | 25 | 3 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 569 | 527 | 146 | 23 | 0 | 11 | 29 | 126 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 277 | 324 | 383 | 708 | 106 | 338 | 22 | 5 | 309 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 23 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 422 | 400 | 93 | 27 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 112 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 233 | 266 | 365 | 631 | 132 | 297 | 27 | 3 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 24 | AA MLE | Jacksonville Suns | — | 325 | 295 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 81 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 247 | 310 | 329 | 638 | 81 | 324 | 25 | 8 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 25 | AAA MLE | New Orleans Zephyrs | — | 344 | 320 | 80 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 83 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 250 | 295 | 375 | 670 | 125 | 313 | 24 | 6 | 288 | 81 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 425 | 394 | 102 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 123 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 259 | 307 | 345 | 653 | 86 | 359 | 29 | 6 | 287 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 28 | AA MLE | Erie SeaWolves | — | 313 | 288 | 72 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 306 | 312 | 619 | 62 | 333 | 28 | 6 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2490 | 2312 | 591 | 116 | 7 | 33 | 136 | 636 | 22 | 8 | 5 | 256 | 303 | 355 | 658 | 99 | 336 | 26 | 5 | 288 | 81 | -56 | -0 | +0 | +9 | +54 | 0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 155 | 30 | 2 | 9 | 36 | 166 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 257 | 306 | 358 | 664 | 101 | 336 | 26 | 6 | 288 | 81 | -15 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | 0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2017 AAErie SeaWolves · 313 PAwOBA .322 → .273 (−48)K% 22.4% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.36% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.58% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 6.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.96% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 0.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.90% | ÷1.020 | ×0.970 | ×1.027 | ×0.968 | 28.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.37% | ÷0.944 | ×0.860 | ×1.027 | ×0.968 | 5.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.094 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | ×0.968 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.259 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 0.88% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 152, 1B 104, 2B 89, 3B 119, K 95, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .322 → .273; ISO .080 → .062; BABIP .357 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAJacksonville Suns · 369 PAwOBA .360 → .303 (−57)K% 21.7% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.68% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.44% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.30% | ÷1.017 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 6.80% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.54% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.79% | ÷0.990 | ×0.920 | ×1.005 | ×0.988 | 30.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.012 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | ×0.988 | 6.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.40% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.005 | ×0.988 | 0.39% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.62% | ÷0.973 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 1.32% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 80, K 93, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .360 → .303; ISO .101 → .085; BABIP .412 → .377. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 56 PAwOBA .238 → .181 (−57)K% 30.4% → 38.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.36% | ÷1.016 | ×1.290 | — | — | 38.54% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 1.79% | ÷0.997 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.018 | 1.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.16% | ÷0.969 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.018 | 12.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.16% | ÷1.012 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 10.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.63% | ÷0.975 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.018 | 2.14% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 94, 2B 102, 3B 97, K 103, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .238 → .181; ISO .145 → .105; BABIP .270 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAANew Orleans Zephyrs · 344 PAwOBA .336 → .288 (−47)K% 18.9% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.90% | ÷1.008 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.85% | ÷1.007 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.033 | 5.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.29% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.033 | 0.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.89% | ÷0.980 | ×0.900 | ×1.009 | ×1.033 | 22.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.29% | ÷0.923 | ×0.810 | ×1.009 | ×1.033 | 6.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.21% | ÷0.900 | ×0.810 | ×1.009 | ×1.033 | 1.14% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.24% | ÷1.098 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.033 | 2.38% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 120, 1B 96, 2B 85, 3B 80, K 102, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .336 → .288; ISO .154 → .124; BABIP .333 → .313. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAJacksonville Suns · 325 PAwOBA .322 → .285 (−37)K% 20.9% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.92% | ÷1.024 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.93% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.08% | ÷0.980 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 7.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.62% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.05% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | ×1.012 | 25.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.98% | ÷1.029 | ×0.910 | ×1.022 | ×1.012 | 6.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷1.082 | ×0.880 | ×1.022 | ×1.012 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.40% | ÷1.036 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.09% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 97, 2B 106, 3B 116, K 105, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .322 → .285; ISO .099 → .086; BABIP .341 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 316 PAwOBA .305 → .272 (−33)K% 19.9% → 24.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.94% | ÷1.033 | ×1.290 | — | — | 24.89% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.16% | ÷1.014 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.050 | 2.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.050 | 1.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.64% | ÷0.985 | ×0.900 | ×1.029 | ×1.050 | 18.42% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.75% | ÷0.916 | ×0.810 | ×1.029 | ×1.050 | 9.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | ×1.029 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.81% | ÷0.993 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 3.15% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 97, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 107, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .305 → .272; ISO .167 → .141; BABIP .295 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2012 AAJacksonville Suns · 106 PAwOBA .305 → .269 (−36)K% 25.5% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.47% | ÷0.976 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.43% | ÷0.997 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 6.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.53% | ÷1.007 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 23.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.82% | ÷0.995 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 8.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.078 | ×0.880 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 1.29% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷0.896 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.35% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 116, K 95, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .305 → .269; ISO .116 → .105; BABIP .338 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2011 AASpringfield Cardinals · 389 PAwOBA .343 → .304 (−39)K% 17.7% → 21.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.74% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.60% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.20% | ÷0.973 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 5.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.54% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.15% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.031 | ×1.042 | 26.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.71% | ÷1.110 | ×0.840 | ×1.031 | ×1.042 | 5.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.994 | ×0.940 | ×1.031 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.53% | ÷1.030 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 2.86% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 98, 2B 122, 3B 99, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .343 → .304; ISO .139 → .111; BABIP .338 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).