Zach Collier
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 26 | AAA/AA2 orgs | 227 | .268/.339/.449 | 7 | 5 | 72 | — | .213/.269/.341 |
| 2018 | 27 | AAWSH | 361 | .212/.320/.358 | 6 | 5 | 45 | — | .168/.247/.280 |
| 2019 | 28 | AAWSH | 28 | .217/.357/.435 | 1 | 0 | 69 | — | .208/.321/.417 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 17 | ROK | GCL Phillies | — | 150 | 129 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 28 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 271 | 356 | 357 | 713 | 85 | 333 | 19 | 11 | 318 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 18 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 326 | 298 | 65 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 23 | 80 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 218 | 276 | 319 | 595 | 101 | 295 | 25 | 7 | 266 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | A | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 471 | 416 | 106 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 40 | 99 | 7 | 35 | 13 | 255 | 330 | 349 | 679 | 94 | 328 | 21 | 8 | 305 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | — | 319 | 283 | 76 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 60 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 269 | 339 | 399 | 738 | 131 | 315 | 19 | 8 | 326 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 76 | 62 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 371 | 473 | 532 | 1.005 | 161 | 426 | 13 | 16 | 432 | 178 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 513 | 446 | 99 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 47 | 129 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 222 | 312 | 348 | 659 | 126 | 293 | 25 | 9 | 295 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 301 | 267 | 64 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 82 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 240 | 319 | 408 | 727 | 169 | 311 | 27 | 7 | 323 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 164 | 148 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 54 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 276 | 297 | 573 | 95 | 309 | 33 | 9 | 261 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 233 | 214 | 61 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 61 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 285 | 338 | 425 | 763 | 140 | 384 | 26 | 6 | 336 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 121 | 108 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 27 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 259 | 339 | 454 | 793 | 194 | 303 | 22 | 11 | 352 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 106 | 97 | 27 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 278 | 340 | 443 | 783 | 165 | 397 | 30 | 8 | 348 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 361 | 307 | 65 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 97 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 212 | 320 | 358 | 679 | 147 | 285 | 27 | 12 | 305 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | — | 28 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 217 | 357 | 435 | 792 | 217 | 235 | 18 | 14 | 355 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 150 | 136 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 199 | 253 | 257 | 511 | 59 | 264 | 27 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 18 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 326 | 305 | 59 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 16 | 107 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 193 | 236 | 282 | 518 | 89 | 288 | 33 | 5 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 471 | 430 | 95 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 26 | 134 | 7 | 35 | 13 | 221 | 276 | 295 | 572 | 74 | 305 | 28 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A+ MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 319 | 290 | 65 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 85 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 224 | 281 | 317 | 598 | 93 | 290 | 27 | 6 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 513 | 462 | 88 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 31 | 163 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 190 | 258 | 281 | 539 | 91 | 272 | 32 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 301 | 274 | 56 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 103 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 204 | 268 | 318 | 586 | 113 | 298 | 34 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 164 | 153 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 68 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 163 | 215 | 248 | 463 | 85 | 274 | 41 | 6 | 198 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 233 | 219 | 53 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 76 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 242 | 281 | 352 | 633 | 110 | 347 | 33 | 4 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Chiefs | — | 121 | 112 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 205 | 264 | 348 | 613 | 143 | 260 | 26 | 7 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 106 | 99 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 222 | 274 | 333 | 607 | 111 | 350 | 36 | 6 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 361 | 322 | 54 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 120 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 168 | 247 | 280 | 527 | 112 | 239 | 33 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 28 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 208 | 321 | 417 | 738 | 208 | 208 | 21 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 150 | 136 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 199 | 253 | 257 | 511 | 59 | 270 | 27 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 17 | ROK RAW | GCL Phillies | — | 150 | 129 | 35 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 28 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 271 | 356 | 357 | 713 | 85 | 333 | 19 | 11 | 318 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 18 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 326 | 305 | 59 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 16 | 107 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 193 | 236 | 282 | 518 | 89 | 295 | 33 | 5 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 18 | A RAW | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 326 | 298 | 65 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 23 | 80 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 218 | 276 | 319 | 595 | 101 | 295 | 25 | 7 | 266 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 471 | 430 | 95 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 26 | 134 | 7 | 35 | 13 | 221 | 276 | 295 | 572 | 74 | 314 | 28 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | A RAW | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 471 | 416 | 106 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 40 | 99 | 7 | 35 | 13 | 255 | 330 | 349 | 679 | 94 | 328 | 21 | 8 | 305 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 395 | 359 | 81 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 106 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 226 | 282 | 323 | 605 | 97 | 298 | 27 | 6 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 395 | 345 | 99 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 38 | 70 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 287 | 364 | 423 | 788 | 136 | 337 | 18 | 10 | 346 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 513 | 462 | 88 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 31 | 163 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 190 | 258 | 281 | 539 | 91 | 280 | 32 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AA RAW | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 513 | 446 | 99 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 47 | 129 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 222 | 312 | 348 | 659 | 126 | 293 | 25 | 9 | 295 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 301 | 274 | 56 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 103 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 204 | 268 | 318 | 586 | 113 | 305 | 34 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA RAW | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 301 | 267 | 64 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 82 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 240 | 319 | 408 | 727 | 169 | 311 | 27 | 7 | 323 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 397 | 372 | 76 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 20 | 144 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 204 | 249 | 293 | 542 | 89 | 325 | 36 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 397 | 362 | 91 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 30 | 115 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 251 | 312 | 373 | 685 | 122 | 355 | 29 | 8 | 305 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 227 | 212 | 47 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 222 | 273 | 368 | 641 | 146 | 301 | 31 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 227 | 205 | 55 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 59 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 268 | 339 | 449 | 788 | 180 | 345 | 26 | 9 | 350 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 361 | 322 | 54 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 120 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 168 | 247 | 280 | 527 | 112 | 245 | 33 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 361 | 307 | 65 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 97 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 212 | 320 | 358 | 679 | 147 | 285 | 27 | 12 | 305 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 28 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 208 | 321 | 417 | 738 | 208 | 235 | 21 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA RAW | Harrisburg Senators | — | 28 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 217 | 357 | 435 | 792 | 217 | 235 | 18 | 14 | 355 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2008 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies | — | 150 | 139 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 40 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 194 | 253 | 252 | 505 | 58 | 264 | 27 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2009 | 18 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 326 | 306 | 59 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 16 | 107 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 193 | 236 | 281 | 517 | 88 | 288 | 33 | 5 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2011 | 20 | A MLE | Lakewood BlueClaws | — | 471 | 435 | 95 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 26 | 134 | 7 | 35 | 13 | 218 | 276 | 292 | 568 | 74 | 305 | 28 | 6 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2012 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 395 | 364 | 81 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 106 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 223 | 282 | 319 | 600 | 96 | 290 | 27 | 6 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2013 | 22 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 513 | 466 | 88 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 31 | 163 | 11 | 17 | 6 | 189 | 258 | 279 | 537 | 90 | 272 | 32 | 6 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 23 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 301 | 274 | 56 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 103 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 204 | 268 | 318 | 586 | 113 | 298 | 34 | 5 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 397 | 372 | 76 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 20 | 144 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 204 | 249 | 293 | 542 | 89 | 317 | 36 | 5 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 227 | 210 | 47 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 224 | 273 | 371 | 645 | 148 | 302 | 31 | 6 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 27 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 361 | 324 | 54 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 120 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 167 | 247 | 278 | 525 | 111 | 239 | 33 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 28 | AA MLE | Harrisburg Senators | — | 28 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 208 | 321 | 417 | 738 | 208 | 208 | 21 | 11 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3169 | 2896 | 588 | 110 | 40 | 30 | 187 | 993 | 42 | 106 | 48 | 203 | 261 | 300 | 561 | 97 | 294 | 31 | 6 | 246 | 53 | -177 | +2 | +0 | +11 | +69 | -9.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 121 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 38 | 204 | 9 | 22 | 10 | 204 | 262 | 300 | 562 | 96 | 296 | 31 | 6 | 246 | 53 | -36 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AAHarrisburg Senators · 28 PAwOBA .346 → .270 (−76)K% 17.9% → 21.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.86% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.054 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.958 | 9.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.57% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 2.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷0.991 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.958 | 15.63% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.860 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | — | ×0.958 | 4.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.111 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 3.74% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 98, 2B 97, 3B 130, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .346 → .270; ISO .217 → .161; BABIP .235 → .208. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAHarrisburg Senators · 361 PAwOBA .301 → .234 (−67)K% 26.9% → 33.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.87% | ÷0.987 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.91% | ÷1.037 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.968 | 7.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.66% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.968 | 1.37% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.62% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 15.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.10% | ÷1.012 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 6.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.38% | ÷1.070 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×0.968 | 1.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.86% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.968 | 2.33% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 102, 3B 114, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .301 → .234; ISO .147 → .117; BABIP .285 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 121 PAwOBA .342 → .276 (−66)K% 22.3% → 26.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.31% | ÷1.005 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.74% | ÷1.033 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.99% | ÷0.997 | ×0.930 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | 19.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷1.081 | ×0.830 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | 5.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.17% | ÷0.980 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.003 | 5.31% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 99, 2B 116, 3B 130, K 101, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .342 → .276; ISO .194 → .159; BABIP .303 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AAHarrisburg Senators · 106 PAwOBA .338 → .272 (−66)K% 30.2% → 36.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.19% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.55% | ÷0.974 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 5.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.62% | ÷1.016 | ×0.970 | ×0.979 | ×0.978 | 22.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.31% | ÷0.998 | ×0.860 | ×0.979 | ×0.978 | 10.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.906 | ×0.950 | ×0.979 | ×0.978 | 1.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.08% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 2.42% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 81, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .338 → .272; ISO .165 → .130; BABIP .397 → .350. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAHarrisburg Senators · 233 PAwOBA .329 → .265 (−63)K% 26.2% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.18% | ÷0.980 | ×1.220 | — | — | 32.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.44% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.86% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.10% | ÷1.029 | ×0.970 | ×0.992 | ×0.988 | 25.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷0.922 | ×0.860 | ×0.992 | ×0.988 | 5.38% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.92% | ÷1.137 | ×0.950 | ×0.992 | ×0.988 | 3.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.445 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 1.05% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 189, 1B 106, 2B 84, 3B 127, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .329 → .265; ISO .140 → .101; BABIP .384 → .347. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAASyracuse Chiefs · 164 PAwOBA .256 → .198 (−58)K% 32.9% → 41.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.93% | ÷0.949 | ×1.200 | — | — | 41.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.15% | ÷1.110 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.28% | ÷1.048 | ×0.930 | ×0.975 | ×1.018 | 18.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.45% | ÷0.959 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×1.018 | 6.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×0.975 | ×1.018 | 2.28% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.06% | ÷0.978 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.018 | 0.93% |
Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 110, 2B 92, 3B 80, K 90, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .256 → .198; ISO .095 → .080; BABIP .309 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 AAReading Fightin Phils · 301 PAwOBA .315 → .256 (−59)K% 27.2% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.24% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.31% | ÷1.064 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.99% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 2.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.16% | ÷0.974 | ×0.970 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 22.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.41% | ÷0.984 | ×0.860 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.16% | ÷0.923 | ×0.950 | ×0.991 | ×1.012 | 2.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.86% | ÷1.317 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 2.92% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 163, 1B 95, 2B 97, 3B 85, K 95, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .315 → .256; ISO .169 → .118; BABIP .311 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2013 AAReading Fightin Phils · 513 PAwOBA .289 → .239 (−50)K% 25.1% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.15% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.83% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.16% | ÷1.074 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.14% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 1.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.45% | ÷1.022 | ×0.970 | ×0.974 | ×1.027 | 20.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.42% | ÷0.892 | ×0.860 | ×0.974 | ×1.027 | 4.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.84% | ÷1.144 | ×0.950 | ×0.974 | ×1.027 | 2.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.52% | ÷1.205 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.68% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 141, 1B 104, 2B 78, 3B 129, K 93, BB 115 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .289 → .239; ISO .126 → .097; BABIP .293 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).